MUC took the words from me! Thats exactly what I wanted to say
So maybe we'll see a new encoding system for the german forces?
So maybe we'll see a new encoding system for the german forces?
Manstein in Africa: The Genius of the Desert
- Thread starter BlairWitch749
- Start date
Maybe they will adopt the Italian system?MUC took the words from me! Thats exactly what I wanted to say
So maybe we'll see a new encoding system for the german forces?
BlairWitch749
Banned
They allready broke out successfully... no contacts yet but they are comming. Raeder had added an extra wheel to the Kriegsmarine Enigma machines right before the two task forces left port and it will be several critical months before the british can crack it again
BlairWitch749
Banned
The Italian system was never broken. Manstein will use an operation to test his theory that Enigma is comprimisedMaybe they will adopt the Italian system?
BlairWitch749
Banned
Operation Hummel (Chapter 27)
Manstein's field HQ August 1941
Operation Hummel would prove to be Manstein's most brilliant idea in his long career. Operational security was unbealivably tight with only a select few straff officers being in the loop. Communication was by courier or telephone were possible.
Manstein, once he had come to the realization that Enigma was comprimsed decided it was a situation to take advantage of as opposed to just switching to another system.
The idea was simple. Half moon would still go ahead. All orders for it would be sent via the Italian communication network or by courier. At the same time Enigma traffic would indicated the Axis were planning another amphibious assault with the objectives of Crete and Cyprus. Manstein correctly surmised that given the distances involved Force H from Gibraltar would not be his opponent but instead the Mediterranian fleet currently hiding from his bombers in the Red Sea would risk transiting the Suez Canal in order to defend the garrisons on those islands. Manstein had worked with Rabini and Bastico to make sure the transit would not be a pleasant one for the Royal Navy.
The Victors of Full Moon Littorio and Venito along with Andrea Dorea (after she finished her fire support mission for the San Marco Regiment) along with 6 cruisers and 11 destroyers would be waiting on the far side of the canal for the British to come to them. Meanwhile, Manstein would liberally scout the canal with his fast JU-88 bombers and once the Royal Navy came into it he would launch massed strikes with every available bomber in the axis arsenal. He would also launch his long anticipated concurrent ground offensive after San Marco landed to cause confusion along the British lines.
The ground offensive had been delayed for many weeks which allowed the Italian infantry divisions to get excellent practice in trench clearing operations and for Manstein to bring up as many batteries of heavy guns as possible. His supply situation had gotten easier from the fall of Malta and the abondonment of Alexandria... convoys could now go into Mersa Matruh and Tobruk with very little risk which reduced the strain on the Africa Corps internal transport.
battle awaited...
to be continued...
your thoughts?
The Genius of the dessert who authored operation hummel
Manstein's field HQ August 1941
Operation Hummel would prove to be Manstein's most brilliant idea in his long career. Operational security was unbealivably tight with only a select few straff officers being in the loop. Communication was by courier or telephone were possible.
Manstein, once he had come to the realization that Enigma was comprimsed decided it was a situation to take advantage of as opposed to just switching to another system.
The idea was simple. Half moon would still go ahead. All orders for it would be sent via the Italian communication network or by courier. At the same time Enigma traffic would indicated the Axis were planning another amphibious assault with the objectives of Crete and Cyprus. Manstein correctly surmised that given the distances involved Force H from Gibraltar would not be his opponent but instead the Mediterranian fleet currently hiding from his bombers in the Red Sea would risk transiting the Suez Canal in order to defend the garrisons on those islands. Manstein had worked with Rabini and Bastico to make sure the transit would not be a pleasant one for the Royal Navy.
The Victors of Full Moon Littorio and Venito along with Andrea Dorea (after she finished her fire support mission for the San Marco Regiment) along with 6 cruisers and 11 destroyers would be waiting on the far side of the canal for the British to come to them. Meanwhile, Manstein would liberally scout the canal with his fast JU-88 bombers and once the Royal Navy came into it he would launch massed strikes with every available bomber in the axis arsenal. He would also launch his long anticipated concurrent ground offensive after San Marco landed to cause confusion along the British lines.
The ground offensive had been delayed for many weeks which allowed the Italian infantry divisions to get excellent practice in trench clearing operations and for Manstein to bring up as many batteries of heavy guns as possible. His supply situation had gotten easier from the fall of Malta and the abondonment of Alexandria... convoys could now go into Mersa Matruh and Tobruk with very little risk which reduced the strain on the Africa Corps internal transport.
battle awaited...
to be continued...
your thoughts?
The Genius of the dessert who authored operation hummel
If this works the losses at Malta may be made up for.
This operation stands to cripple the Med. Fleet and reopen the offensive in Egypt. Alone ither achievement would be magonificent but together they could be a war winner.
The Royal Navy is the shirld and spear of the Empire, having it flee the Mediterranean in defeat would be huge. Combine that With Manstein's forces effectively closing the Suez Canal and you will see British public opinion turn completely on the current government.
This seems possible since Hummel is regarded so highly in Manstein's career. No guarentee a good peace could be established with Hitler still at the helm and Mussolini likely to demand Egypt and Tunisia. But perhaps Hitler will swallow a less glorious peace to focus on his Lebenstraude.
This operation stands to cripple the Med. Fleet and reopen the offensive in Egypt. Alone ither achievement would be magonificent but together they could be a war winner.
The Royal Navy is the shirld and spear of the Empire, having it flee the Mediterranean in defeat would be huge. Combine that With Manstein's forces effectively closing the Suez Canal and you will see British public opinion turn completely on the current government.
This seems possible since Hummel is regarded so highly in Manstein's career. No guarentee a good peace could be established with Hitler still at the helm and Mussolini likely to demand Egypt and Tunisia. But perhaps Hitler will swallow a less glorious peace to focus on his Lebenstraude.
Sandman396
Banned
BW,
I love your work but I think that with the re-locking of Enigma you have finally and irrevocably moved this timeline into the Axis-wank territory.
I still look forward to your Sealion & Manstein timeline.
Cheers
S396
I love your work but I think that with the re-locking of Enigma you have finally and irrevocably moved this timeline into the Axis-wank territory.
I still look forward to your Sealion & Manstein timeline.
Cheers
S396
BlairWitch749
Banned
The British telegraphed their punch on Malta a little too much and made it too obvious they knew the paratroopers were comming. When commanding the North African theater Rommel had serious doubts about the communication security of the German signals network (he didn't necessarily think Enigma was comprimised just that there were leaks in the chain of command) so he often utilized radio silence or just out and out disregarded orders from his higher ups)
"A signal cannot be intercepted if it is never sent" Erwin Rommel
It is not a tremendous leap for Manstein to develop similar worries about operational security. Since Malta was so valuable the British committed massive resources to its defense and inflicted nasty losses on the German forces that were committed... but in doing so they gave away their secret that they knew the Germans were coming. Manstein's court of honor or something like it should have been run following the Torch landings because the allied air forces started patroling the Africa Corps convoys with almost zero error. Manstein being the clever fellow he was would easily see that of the two portions of Full Moon only the southern part which relied heavily on Enigma traffic got absolutely destroyed whilst the northern portion was able to come as a surprise.
Sandman396
Banned
I do not disagree with your reasoning.
However, with the wunderkind Manstein on the case, coupled with so-far no failed enterprise in Russia, along with as yet no US involvement and now the shoring up of the Enigma leakage, you are setting up a situation where it will take a huge shark leaping episode to have the Axis lose.
However, with the wunderkind Manstein on the case, coupled with so-far no failed enterprise in Russia, along with as yet no US involvement and now the shoring up of the Enigma leakage, you are setting up a situation where it will take a huge shark leaping episode to have the Axis lose.
BlairWitch749
Banned
Russia will not be cake walk they have just delayed the inevatable by 11 months... I haven't exactly figured out the U.S. involvement yet. No war in Russia should give Japan a very different strategic outlook but my knowledge of the pacific theater is rather limited so i might just gloss over it
Well the Japanese still need the oil in this ATL.
The question is whether or not the Germans are gonna declare war upon the US. With Britain severely beaten in North Africa and the Germans preoccupied in some Middle Eastern campaign in December 1941 (?), they may decide not to declare war upon the US.
The Japanese will have an easier war to fight in SE-Asia against the British. The British have had heavier ship losses in this ATL and I presume that troops and material (especially aircraft) have been diverted to the Med in this ATL, leaving SE-Asia less covered.
Here's a question:
With the Middle East about to fall to the Germans, is there any way the Japanese would consider to forget about the SE-Asia war and start importing fuel from the Germans? The Germans will soon own the Suez canal and by the end of the year probably be somewhere in Syria. With the prospect of Iran falling in mid 1942, can the Japanese gamble, start importing some oil (using Japanese tankers) now using the Suez canal and continue importing it in big style once Iran is occupied by the Germans?
BlairWitch749
Banned
It would make logical sense... although something would have to be done about British control of the Indian ocean or the tankers would need to be heavily escorted. Perhaps they could strike some sort of deal where the Germans give the oil and the Japanese agree to only attack British possesions or give the Germans licenses for some of their naval designs
What are the chances of peace with Britain before Barbarossa starts? Once the Suez is taken the empire will be shaking at its foundations, what with the loyalty of subject peoples and all that. I imagine the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem is going to get to be a very, very bad boy and love every minute of it. If peace can be obtained it would be a big boost for the anti-Soviet effort.
It might be a 'bridge too far' of speculation, but with peace obtained with the British, will the Madagascar solution for the Jews be employed?
BlairWitch749
Banned
It's a possibility. The final solution has not started yet... perhaps it could be a condition of the peace deal if one is reached that the British have to transport all the Jews to Madagascar from Palestine and occupied Europe.
If the Japanese decide to import oil from German controlled Iran and use their own tankers to do so, they do not need to go to war with Britain and the US. In that case, the tankers don't need escort, because the British are not going to attack the Japanese tankers and risk provoking a war with the Japanese.
The Germans could then strike a deal with the Japanese, inviting them to invade the Soviet Union during Barbarossa. Stalin has had one additional year to get ready in this ATL, but let's see how you would cope with an invasion by both the Germans and the Japanese.
Perhaps with the British defeat in Europe a new Anglo Japanese Alliance could be secured? I know Japan had imperial ambitions but with the oil crisis resolved reason mihght take precedent. For instance the Phillipines are scheduled for independence rather than conquest could the Japanese try and wrest it from the American econmic sphere and use pressure to gain favor in Manila?
What tankers? They barely had enough to fuel their fleet let alone the homeland - even on a short run north and south to the DEI. To Iran, ... well that would be difficult.
BlairWitch749
Banned
It wasn't for a lack of tanker ships though it was because they lacked indiginous sources and american submarines sunk the ships en route
Any references for them having plenty of tankers?
Certainly, they massively lacked local resources, and certainly their ships were sunk faster than they could build them. BUT they started the war desperately short of all shipping, including, IIRC, tankers.
BlairWitch749
Banned
Calbear or ESL would have exact data but Japan falls into the category of the UK as an Island nation they are heavily dependant on seaborne commerce so they had a huge merchant fleet including tanker ships... this gave American subs plenty of targets. Japan was importing all its oil before the war anyway from the U.S. and the Dutch... they had enough tanker ships for that so its just a question of importing from somewhere else