The War That Came Even Earlier: WWII in 1936/37?!

[Volsky]

Hi everyone!

I'm been working on the framework an alt-history novel for the better part of five years, mostly to keep myself sane at work.

I am fully prepared for a good shellacking upon posting this, or alternatively be laughed out of the room (off of the forum?). The scenario is pretty far out there. I'm also a pretty flowery and long-winded writer, and may have have some out-there humor or tonal shifts. Sorry about that.

I've got the desired starting state of a 1936/1937 world war, but I need to figure out a reason why the world arrived at that point and why anyone would want a war in 1936. That inspiration hasn't come to me yet, so I decided to post here to try and trawl for ideas. I've even ordered Turtledove's "The War That Came Early" in order to subject myself to it in the hope of finding something there.

Why 1936 or 1937?

The primary impetus behind this story is tech wank: I adore interwar (1930s) tech.

I wanted to envision F2Fs and F3Fs squaring off against I-16s and Bf 109Bs and Es; Mahans dueling Hatsuharus and type 1934s while standard-type battleships traded body blows with the remnants of the Kaiserliche Marine's WW1 constructs and Kongo-class battlecruisers. Renaults, Hotchkai, and Vickers 6-tons against early Panzers; boys in WW1 uniforms with SMLEs and 1917 Enfields battling Gew. 98-armed, trench-mag-equipped reservists or first-generation Fallschirmjagere or Schutzen, as early gas trap Garands and Pattern 37 Battledress trickled into use (among respective nations).

You get the idea.

I have the story itself planned out already; the participants, the interwoven character arcs, so on and so forth. I may share it in a later post, though I suspect the absurdity of how I structured the main character's campaign will offend most self-respecting amateur historians. The military campaign(s) is/are largely finished, though I'm shifting portions of it around as I learn more about specific operations and battles.

As it stands, I've got an RTS sandbox scenario set up and just need to press the start button--but that's not very good writing. I just need a tinderbox and a match to light it with.

Desired starting state:

• World War II begins in either 1936 or 1937 and ends in either 1941 or 1942 (respective of the starting date).

Deviations from OTL/starting conditions:

• Germany is treated much more kindly after the end of WWI, retaining (at least parts of) its navy, air forces, and most of its army, and with no real restrictions on military research and development. There may also be one or two German colonies remaining in Africa, but I haven't given that much thought. These points have not yet been fleshed out and currently "just are".
• The world stage is otherwise much the same: the Soviet Union is busy trying to intimidate most of eastern Europe; France is deeply wounded by WWI, though has in this case has occupied portions of the Rhineland since the end of the war as one of the few concessions it could pry out of the end of the war; England is...fine; the U.S. is pretty racist, very isolationist, and far behind the curve in terms its military; Japan is even more racist, and is either considering or in the midst of doing unspeakable things to Nationalist China; the IJA wants to invade the IJN's harbors, and the IJN wants to sink the home islands (preferably only the bits with IJA personnel on them). And Italy is casting some serious side eye towards potential future holdings in North Africa.
• The Spanish Civil War is just beginning/ongoing (depending on start date).
• The Pacific has been geographically altered, with a fictitious island chain stretching north-south that contains equivalents of the Aleutians, Okinawa, the Philippines, Guadalcanal, etc. Foreshadowing.

Causation:

• Some sort of incident stemming from the Italian invasion of Abyssinia or the Spanish Civil War ignites a powder keg in North Africa; through incompetence or malice, perhaps Luftwaffe aircraft carrying Franco's troops from North Africa to Spain overfly elements of the British fleet, and for some reason fire is opened. Perhaps an errant Italian or Condor Legion bomber mis-drops its bombs on British or French troops or shipping thanks to an innocent navigation error. Perhaps, as detailed in the "The War That Came Early" series, Gibraltar is captured.

Effect:

• WWII starts early, either in 1936 or 1937. The war begins in the Mediterranean and radiates outward, shifting to Norway before Germany shrugs and goes for Paris while the world is focusing to the north and south. America is suckered into the war very early on, and commits its Navy and a very small contingent of Marines (of roughly brigade strength) to the fighting. The U.S. takes its sweet time before involving itself further; the Navy is not happy. Japan uses the distraction caused by the European war to grab the island of Rabaul after the (OTL and ATL) 1937 volcanic eruption in the island, catching the attention of Britain and the U.S. The Soviet Union lashes out rather incoherently, testing the waters in eastern Europe, launching a failed foray into Alaska that goes nowhere and achieves nothing, and goading Japan into a fight as it marches south down the aforementioned fictitious island chain. From there, the war mirrors OTL's post-1942 war, with the exception of a later German-Soviet conflict and Poland not being carved up between them.

Realities that make my scenario rather unlikely, as I understand them:

• The 1935-36 Italian invasion of Abyssinia is unlikely to have sparked an international incident. Further still, if I recall, I've read accounts that British and Italian airmen and soldiers really got on quite well in pre-war North Africa, so the likelihood that Tommy Atkins and Giuseppe would have engaged one another with any amount of elan is questionable at best.
• No (developed, European) nation desired or took steps toward war in 1936/7. Most nations were projecting being ready for the next war by between 1941 and 1945, off the top of my head.
• The Spanish Civil War was very carefully managed by Nazi Germany, wishing to avoid a wider conflict.
• The Spanish Civil War may have provided Germany with a useful distraction for use against Italy while the Anschluss was enacted--grabbing up territory that Italy wished to strongarm back from Austria. Why spoil it by just engaging in WWII?
• The idea of the U.S. joining the war before 1941 is laughable at best. I recall seeing another thread [

  AHC: Earliest Possible American Entry into WWII

  With a POD no later than 1939, how do we get the U.S. in World War II much earlier than OTL, with American forces fighting against Germany, Italy, and Japan? Preferable if this can be done before June 1941.

  www.alternatehistory.com
  ] that detailed public polls that showed a 70:30 or 60:40 split between pro- and anti-war sentiments, leaning either direction depending on the poll. Short of the Kriegsmarine docking in New York Harbor and painting swastikas all over the Statue of Liberty before targeting every orphanage and nunnery within range, the U.S. public and political elite could give two hoots about anything happening "over there".
• Japan would have never moved toward starting a war in 1937, and even if they did, their naval and infantry forces would have absolutely mopped the floor with their U.S. equivalents. This point was rather soundly driven home in an email exchange between myself and a researcher of the Hasegawa Shoutai reenacting group--no malice toward them.
• Others that I'm sure people will come up with. They're welcome to!

So: How can I alter, mangle, or otherwise modify a scenario to accommodate my rather outlandish mid-30s war?

 

[Winterwolf1]

Hi everyone!

I'm been working on the framework an alt-history novel for the better part of five years, mostly to keep myself sane at work.

I am fully prepared for a good shellacking upon posting this, or alternatively be laughed out of the room (off of the forum?). The scenario is pretty far out there. I'm also a pretty flowery and long-winded writer, and may have have some out-there humor or tonal shifts. Sorry about that.

I've got the desired starting state of a 1936/1937 world war, but I need to figure out a reason why the world arrived at that point and why anyone would want a war in 1936. That inspiration hasn't come to me yet, so I decided to post here to try and trawl for ideas. I've even ordered Turtledove's "The War That Came Early" in order to subject myself to it in the hope of finding something there.

Why 1936 or 1937?

The primary impetus behind this story is tech wank: I adore interwar (1930s) tech.

I wanted to envision F2Fs and F3Fs squaring off against I-16s and Bf 109Bs and Es; Mahans dueling Hatsuharus and type 1934s while standard-type battleships traded body blows with the remnants of the Kaiserliche Marine's WW1 constructs and Kongo-class battlecruisers. Renaults, Hotchkai, and Vickers 6-tons against early Panzers; boys in WW1 uniforms with SMLEs and 1917 Enfields battling Gew. 98-armed, trench-mag-equipped reservists or first-generation Fallschirmjagere or Schutzen, as early gas trap Garands and Pattern 37 Battledress trickled into use (among respective nations).

You get the idea.

I have the story itself planned out already; the participants, the interwoven character arcs, so on and so forth. I may share it in a later post, though I suspect the absurdity of how I structured the main character's campaign will offend most self-respecting amateur historians. The military campaign(s) is/are largely finished, though I'm shifting portions of it around as I learn more about specific operations and battles.

As it stands, I've got an RTS sandbox scenario set up and just need to press the start button--but that's not very good writing. I just need a tinderbox and a match to light it with.

Desired starting state:

• World War II begins in either 1936 or 1937 and ends in either 1941 or 1942 (respective of the starting date).

Deviations from OTL/starting conditions:

• Germany is treated much more kindly after the end of WWI, retaining (at least parts of) its navy, air forces, and most of its army, and with no real restrictions on military research and development. There may also be one or two German colonies remaining in Africa, but I haven't given that much thought. These points have not yet been fleshed out and currently "just are".
• The world stage is otherwise much the same: the Soviet Union is busy trying to intimidate most of eastern Europe; France is deeply wounded by WWI, though has in this case has occupied portions of the Rhineland since the end of the war as one of the few concessions it could pry out of the end of the war; England is...fine; the U.S. is pretty racist, very isolationist, and far behind the curve in terms its military; Japan is even more racist, and is either considering or in the midst of doing unspeakable things to Nationalist China; the IJA wants to invade the IJN's harbors, and the IJN wants to sink the home islands (preferably only the bits with IJA personnel on them). And Italy is casting some serious side eye towards potential future holdings in North Africa.
• The Spanish Civil War is just beginning/ongoing (depending on start date).
• The Pacific has been geographically altered, with a fictitious island chain stretching north-south that contains equivalents of the Aleutians, Okinawa, the Philippines, Guadalcanal, etc. Foreshadowing.

Causation:

• Some sort of incident stemming from the Italian invasion of Abyssinia or the Spanish Civil War ignites a powder keg in North Africa; through incompetence or malice, perhaps Luftwaffe aircraft carrying Franco's troops from North Africa to Spain overfly elements of the British fleet, and for some reason fire is opened. Perhaps an errant Italian or Condor Legion bomber mis-drops its bombs on British or French troops or shipping thanks to an innocent navigation error. Perhaps, as detailed in the "The War That Came Early" series, Gibraltar is captured.

Effect:

• WWII starts early, either in 1936 or 1937. The war begins in the Mediterranean and radiates outward, shifting to Norway before Germany shrugs and goes for Paris while the world is focusing to the north and south. America is suckered into the war very early on, and commits its Navy and a very small contingent of Marines (of roughly brigade strength) to the fighting. The U.S. takes its sweet time before involving itself further; the Navy is not happy. Japan uses the distraction caused by the European war to grab the island of Rabaul after the (OTL and ATL) 1937 volcanic eruption in the island, catching the attention of Britain and the U.S. The Soviet Union lashes out rather incoherently, testing the waters in eastern Europe, launching a failed foray into Alaska that goes nowhere and achieves nothing, and goading Japan into a fight as it marches south down the aforementioned fictitious island chain. From there, the war mirrors OTL's post-1942 war, with the exception of a later German-Soviet conflict and Poland not being carved up between them.

Realities that make my scenario rather unlikely, as I understand them:

• The 1935-36 Italian invasion of Abyssinia is unlikely to have sparked an international incident. Further still, if I recall, I've read accounts that British and Italian airmen and soldiers really got on quite well in pre-war North Africa, so the likelihood that Tommy Atkins and Giuseppe would have engaged one another with any amount of elan is questionable at best.
• No (developed, European) nation desired or took steps toward war in 1936/7. Most nations were projecting being ready for the next war by between 1941 and 1945, off the top of my head.
• The Spanish Civil War was very carefully managed by Nazi Germany, wishing to avoid a wider conflict.
• The Spanish Civil War may have provided Germany with a useful distraction for use against Italy while the Anschluss was enacted--grabbing up territory that Italy wished to strongarm back from Austria. Why spoil it by just engaging in WWII?
• The idea of the U.S. joining the war before 1941 is laughable at best. I recall seeing another thread [

  AHC: Earliest Possible American Entry into WWII

  With a POD no later than 1939, how do we get the U.S. in World War II much earlier than OTL, with American forces fighting against Germany, Italy, and Japan? Preferable if this can be done before June 1941.

  www.alternatehistory.com
  ] that detailed public polls that showed a 70:30 or 60:40 split between pro- and anti-war sentiments, leaning either direction depending on the poll. Short of the Kriegsmarine docking in New York Harbor and painting swastikas all over the Statue of Liberty before targeting every orphanage and nunnery within range, the U.S. public and political elite could give two hoots about anything happening "over there".
• Japan would have never moved toward starting a war in 1937, and even if they did, their naval and infantry forces would have absolutely mopped the floor with their U.S. equivalents. This point was rather soundly driven home in an email exchange between myself and a researcher of the Hasegawa Shoutai reenacting group--no malice toward them.
• Others that I'm sure people will come up with. They're welcome to!

So: How can I alter, mangle, or otherwise modify a scenario to accommodate my rather outlandish mid-30s war?

Well...the first thing that would cone into my mind is the remilitarization of the Rhineland. If France attacks, like the did a hundred times over and over again in history. But that would be a more slowly war of attribution with the germans winning the war slowly. Maybe a polish attack an Schlesien, followed with an sowjet Attac on eastern europe, and maybe frech support for the republicsns in spain? (Ww2 in otl were many different wars slowly combining into a big one, with complicated relations, your
scenario could evolve the same)

 

[Garrison]

• Germany is treated much more kindly after the end of WWI, retaining (at least parts of) its navy, air forces, and most of its army, and with no real restrictions on military research and development. There may also be one or two German colonies remaining in Africa, but I haven't given that much thought. These points have not yet been fleshed out and currently "just are".
• The world stage is otherwise much the same: the Soviet Union is busy trying to intimidate most of eastern Europe; France is deeply wounded by WWI, though has in this case has occupied portions of the Rhineland since the end of the war as one of the few concessions it could pry out of the end of the war; England is...fine; the U.S. is pretty racist, very isolationist, and far behind the curve in terms its military; Japan is even more racist, and is either considering or in the midst of doing unspeakable things to Nationalist China; the IJA wants to invade the IJN's harbors, and the IJN wants to sink the home islands (preferably only the bits with IJA personnel on them). And Italy is casting some serious side eye towards potential future holdings in North Africa.

You cannot on the one hand completely rewrite the end of WW1 from outright German defeat to what appears to be a 'White Peace' and then state the world is much the same. In fact I would say this kinder treatment of Germany rules out a war . Without the deep seated resentment created by the false narrative that Germany didn't really lose where does the impetus come from? Barring a certain Austrian corporal no one wanted another European war in the 1930s after the horrifying losses of 1914-18. The only way I can see a 1936-37 war being possible is a short war in 1914-15 with no clear winner and again that would create a radically different 1920s and 1930s politically and economically.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Hi everyone!

I'm been working on the framework an alt-history novel for the better part of five years, mostly to keep myself sane at work.

I am fully prepared for a good shellacking upon posting this, or alternatively be laughed out of the room (off of the forum?). The scenario is pretty far out there. I'm also a pretty flowery and long-winded writer, and may have have some out-there humor or tonal shifts. Sorry about that.

I've got the desired starting state of a 1936/1937 world war, but I need to figure out a reason why the world arrived at that point and why anyone would want a war in 1936. That inspiration hasn't come to me yet, so I decided to post here to try and trawl for ideas. I've even ordered Turtledove's "The War That Came Early" in order to subject myself to it in the hope of finding something there.

Why 1936 or 1937?

The primary impetus behind this story is tech wank: I adore interwar (1930s) tech.

I wanted to envision F2Fs and F3Fs squaring off against I-16s and Bf 109Bs and Es; Mahans dueling Hatsuharus and type 1934s while standard-type battleships traded body blows with the remnants of the Kaiserliche Marine's WW1 constructs and Kongo-class battlecruisers. Renaults, Hotchkai, and Vickers 6-tons against early Panzers; boys in WW1 uniforms with SMLEs and 1917 Enfields battling Gew. 98-armed, trench-mag-equipped reservists or first-generation Fallschirmjagere or Schutzen, as early gas trap Garands and Pattern 37 Battledress trickled into use (among respective nations).

You get the idea.

I have the story itself planned out already; the participants, the interwoven character arcs, so on and so forth. I may share it in a later post, though I suspect the absurdity of how I structured the main character's campaign will offend most self-respecting amateur historians. The military campaign(s) is/are largely finished, though I'm shifting portions of it around as I learn more about specific operations and battles.

As it stands, I've got an RTS sandbox scenario set up and just need to press the start button--but that's not very good writing. I just need a tinderbox and a match to light it with.

Desired starting state:

• World War II begins in either 1936 or 1937 and ends in either 1941 or 1942 (respective of the starting date).

Deviations from OTL/starting conditions:

• Germany is treated much more kindly after the end of WWI, retaining (at least parts of) its navy, air forces, and most of its army, and with no real restrictions on military research and development. There may also be one or two German colonies remaining in Africa, but I haven't given that much thought. These points have not yet been fleshed out and currently "just are".
• The world stage is otherwise much the same: the Soviet Union is busy trying to intimidate most of eastern Europe; France is deeply wounded by WWI, though has in this case has occupied portions of the Rhineland since the end of the war as one of the few concessions it could pry out of the end of the war; England is...fine; the U.S. is pretty racist, very isolationist, and far behind the curve in terms its military; Japan is even more racist, and is either considering or in the midst of doing unspeakable things to Nationalist China; the IJA wants to invade the IJN's harbors, and the IJN wants to sink the home islands (preferably only the bits with IJA personnel on them). And Italy is casting some serious side eye towards potential future holdings in North Africa.
• The Spanish Civil War is just beginning/ongoing (depending on start date).
• The Pacific has been geographically altered, with a fictitious island chain stretching north-south that contains equivalents of the Aleutians, Okinawa, the Philippines, Guadalcanal, etc. Foreshadowing.

Causation:

• Some sort of incident stemming from the Italian invasion of Abyssinia or the Spanish Civil War ignites a powder keg in North Africa; through incompetence or malice, perhaps Luftwaffe aircraft carrying Franco's troops from North Africa to Spain overfly elements of the British fleet, and for some reason fire is opened. Perhaps an errant Italian or Condor Legion bomber mis-drops its bombs on British or French troops or shipping thanks to an innocent navigation error. Perhaps, as detailed in the "The War That Came Early" series, Gibraltar is captured.

Effect:

• WWII starts early, either in 1936 or 1937. The war begins in the Mediterranean and radiates outward, shifting to Norway before Germany shrugs and goes for Paris while the world is focusing to the north and south. America is suckered into the war very early on, and commits its Navy and a very small contingent of Marines (of roughly brigade strength) to the fighting. The U.S. takes its sweet time before involving itself further; the Navy is not happy. Japan uses the distraction caused by the European war to grab the island of Rabaul after the (OTL and ATL) 1937 volcanic eruption in the island, catching the attention of Britain and the U.S. The Soviet Union lashes out rather incoherently, testing the waters in eastern Europe, launching a failed foray into Alaska that goes nowhere and achieves nothing, and goading Japan into a fight as it marches south down the aforementioned fictitious island chain. From there, the war mirrors OTL's post-1942 war, with the exception of a later German-Soviet conflict and Poland not being carved up between them.

Realities that make my scenario rather unlikely, as I understand them:

• The 1935-36 Italian invasion of Abyssinia is unlikely to have sparked an international incident. Further still, if I recall, I've read accounts that British and Italian airmen and soldiers really got on quite well in pre-war North Africa, so the likelihood that Tommy Atkins and Giuseppe would have engaged one another with any amount of elan is questionable at best.
• No (developed, European) nation desired or took steps toward war in 1936/7. Most nations were projecting being ready for the next war by between 1941 and 1945, off the top of my head.
• The Spanish Civil War was very carefully managed by Nazi Germany, wishing to avoid a wider conflict.
• The Spanish Civil War may have provided Germany with a useful distraction for use against Italy while the Anschluss was enacted--grabbing up territory that Italy wished to strongarm back from Austria. Why spoil it by just engaging in WWII?
• The idea of the U.S. joining the war before 1941 is laughable at best. I recall seeing another thread [

  AHC: Earliest Possible American Entry into WWII

  With a POD no later than 1939, how do we get the U.S. in World War II much earlier than OTL, with American forces fighting against Germany, Italy, and Japan? Preferable if this can be done before June 1941.

  www.alternatehistory.com
  ] that detailed public polls that showed a 70:30 or 60:40 split between pro- and anti-war sentiments, leaning either direction depending on the poll. Short of the Kriegsmarine docking in New York Harbor and painting swastikas all over the Statue of Liberty before targeting every orphanage and nunnery within range, the U.S. public and political elite could give two hoots about anything happening "over there".
• Japan would have never moved toward starting a war in 1937, and even if they did, their naval and infantry forces would have absolutely mopped the floor with their U.S. equivalents. This point was rather soundly driven home in an email exchange between myself and a researcher of the Hasegawa Shoutai reenacting group--no malice toward them.
• Others that I'm sure people will come up with. They're welcome to!

So: How can I alter, mangle, or otherwise modify a scenario to accommodate my rather outlandish mid-30s war?

If Germany is treated kindly they wouldn't cause WW2 so that is impossible, if you want an earlier war you should probably make an even harsher peace treaty that creates even more problems to Germany leading to the rise of the Nazi party in 1930.
As Hitler would still almost bankrupt Germany to rebuild the army he would have to start violating the Treaty of Versailles earlier, as everybody is busy with economic crisis they don't want war with Germany which is why they do Appeasement ITTL, this scenario depends on what Hitler exactly does and how exactly the Allies answer.

 

[Garrison]

If Germany is treated kindly they wouldn't cause WW2 so that is impossible, if you want an earlier war you should probably make an even harsher peace treaty that creates even more problems to Germany leading to the rise of the Nazi party in 1930.
As Hitler would still almost bankrupt Germany to rebuild the army he would have to start violating the Treaty of Versailles earlier, as everybody is busy with economic crisis they don't want war with Germany which is why they do Appeasement ITTL, this scenario depends on what Hitler exactly does and how exactly the Allies answer.

I agree, things either have to be way worse in the late 1920s, early 1930s, or alternatively there is an extremely short war in 1914-15 that doesn't lead to strong anti-war sentiments and leaves everyone feeling they still have grievances to settle.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

I agree, things either have to be way worse in the late 1920s, early 1930s, or alternatively there is an extremely short war in 1914-15 that doesn't lead to strong anti-war sentiments and leaves everyone feeling they still have grievances to settle.

I will suppose you mean a Schlieffen plan victory.
While in Germany this wouldn't mean anti-war sentiment, I think that this means that the Entente either collapse or they decide to rebuild their military and go for round two; I think the second one is more probable. The war probably would happen earlier than 1935/6, my guess is around 1930 as the Entente would think they are prepared for round two but this would be a completely different scenario than what is discussed here.

 

[Garrison]

I will suppose you mean a Schlieffen plan victory.
While in Germany this wouldn't mean anti-war sentiment, I think that this means that the Entente either collapse or they decide to rebuild their military and go for round two; I think the second one is more probable. The war probably would happen earlier than 1935/6, my guess is around 1930 as the Entente would think they are prepared for round two but this would be a completely different scenario than what is discussed here.

I was thinking of a more limited war overall where no one can really claim victory, but the exact mechanism doesn't matter so long as its short and the casualties are light enough that it doesn't discourage the idea of settling issues on the battlefield, though I suspect you are right that it would mean war earlier.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

I was thinking of a more limited war overall where no one can really claim victory, but the exact mechanism doesn't matter so long as its short and the casualties are light enough that it doesn't discourage the idea of settling issues on the battlefield, though I suspect you are right that it would mean war earlier.

You mean WW1 ending in a stalemate in 1915? I don't really see that happening

 

[Garrison]

You mean WW1 ending in a stalemate in 1915? I don't really see that happening

Yeah neither can I really, but in the absence of the OP offering a plausible scenario its that or some sort of even more nightmarish WW1, perhaps the Germans don't seek an armistice and the Entente have to fight their way to Berlin in 1919?

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Yeah neither can I really, but in the absence of the OP offering a plausible scenario its that or some sort of even more nightmarish WW1, perhaps the Germans don't seek an armistice and the Entente have to fight their way to Berlin in 1919?

That would probably mean a harsher peace deal not a lighter one; the only way I see this happening is the US, UK and Italian diplomats understand that France's idea is pure madness and make the treaty less extreme as in any scenario where the Germans surrender the Entente will make a harsh peace deal

 

[Garrison]

That would probably mean a harsher peace deal not a lighter one; the only way I see this happening is the US, UK and Italian diplomats understand that France's idea is pure madness and make the treaty less extreme as in any scenario where the Germans surrender the Entente will make a harsh peace deal

I don't disagree and frankly I'm not sure there is a plausible scenario that leads to war in 1936-37. Either you have a more generous peace, so no driving force for a war, or a much harsher one, so no means to fight one.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

I don't disagree and frankly I'm not sure there is a plausible scenario that leads to war in 1936-37. Either you have a more generous peace, so no driving force for a war, or a much harsher one, so no means to fight one.

How can you restrict the German army even more than OTL? Germany always had the resources to rebuild their armies (though a normal build-up would take much more time than what Hitler did) and I don't see more army restrictions than OTL being plausible

 

[Garrison]

How can you restrict the German army even more than OTL? Germany always had the resources to rebuild their armies (though a normal build-up would take much more time than what Hitler did) and I don't see more army restrictions than OTL being plausible

Well you can actually enforce the restrictions put in place, which is more likely with a bloodier fight to the finish, but again not saying there is a plausible scenario here.

 

[Winterwolf1]

How can you restrict the German army even more than OTL? Germany always had the resources to rebuild their armies (though a normal build-up would take much more time than what Hitler did) and I don't see more army restrictions than OTL being plausible

They restrictions were never realistic enough to be able to enforcd on germany. If they are even harder than in otl.... Well, you know,...
France: why are you having millions of police officiers germany?
Germany : to enforce order and security
Poland: why are there cars looking like tanks?
Germany: ... oh that? That is only zo protect the officiers from gunfire.
England: why are you rebuilding your fleet!
Germany: oh, that are only fishing boots, don't worry.
The allies....

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

They restrictions were never realistic enough to be able to enforcd on germany. If they are even harder than in otl.... Well, you know,...
France: why are you having millions of police officiers germany?
Germany : to enforce order and security
Poland: why are there cars looking like tanks?
Germany: ... oh that? That is only zo protect the officiers from gunfire.
England: why are you rebuilding your fleet!
Germany: oh, that are only fishing boots, don't worry.
The allies....

Well they can just do as OTL and say "It's a random company which produces everything we might need to go to war with you and has a lot of 'employees' but don't worry"

 

[lukedalton]

As other pointed out, giving a much more lenient peace to Germany change the future of Europe drastically, take for example the Adriatic question, in OTL both the British and the French basically used WW as the scapegoat to not giving to Italy what promised by the Treaty of London as they don't want a too strong Italy extending his influence in the Balkans.
A Germany still military strong mean that an ally to contain her in case of war is necessary, expecially with Russia engulfed in a civil war, so in this situation is much more probable that both Paris and London will have a much more conciliatory position towards Rome.
There is also the 'problem' of France, a more lenient treaty will cause a lot of repercussion in the internal situation and can bring their version of the 'mutilated victory' with fascist takeover included

 

[Brak]

Some sort of incident stemming from the Italian invasion of Abyssinia or the Spanish Civil War ignites a powder keg in North Africa; through incompetence or malice, perhaps Luftwaffe aircraft carrying Franco's troops from North Africa to Spain overfly elements of the British fleet, and for some reason fire is opened. Perhaps an errant Italian or Condor Legion bomber mis-drops its bombs on British or French troops or shipping thanks to an innocent navigation error. Perhaps, as detailed in the "The War That Came Early" series, Gibraltar is captured.

Most people in the democracies like Britain and France were anti war at the time. It takes more than just an incident to draw a reluctant nation like those into war. Case in point: the Panay Incident. Democracy is not going to gain the will to fight yet with that POD. Maybe a direct intervention of Germany or the Soviets in the Spanish Civil War, or China, or Abyssinia. Fascism or Communism could have realistically started something very early. But probably the democracies would have waited to get involved. Now if there was a concerted attack, that could be realistic, but an incident is not. Best POD for your scenario would be to have the Condor Legion do a Pearl Harbor on Gibraltar/Matla (or somewhere) while there are lots of ships present.

 

[Volsky]

Most people in the democracies like Britain and France were anti war at the time. It takes more than just an incident to draw a reluctant nation like those into war. Case in point: the Panay Incident. Democracy is not going to gain the will to fight yet with that POD. Maybe a direct intervention of Germany or the Soviets in the Spanish Civil War, or China, or Abyssinia. Fascism or Communism could have realistically started something very early. But probably the democracies would have waited to get involved. Now if there was a concerted attack, that could be realistic, but an incident is not. Best POD for your scenario would be to have the Condor Legion do a Pearl Harbor on Gibraltar/Matla (or somewhere) while there are lots of ships present.

The question then becomes: Why on Earth would they do such a thing?

Replying to earlier posts, I should have emphasized how small of an influence the "Germany gets off light" point has on my story as a whole. To be clear, my focus is on the story--which picks up at the outset of the war (whenever that is).

I would be perfectly fine with a scenario where either A) the POD is, as Brak suggested, the Condor Legion just decides to start a war, B) the POD is WWI continuing into 1919 and forcing Germany into an even less favorable peace, or C) literally anything that'll fit the desired scenario. Up to and including Mussolini finding stale French baguettes broken up and mixed into his pasta primavera and that somehow driving him over the edge.

Option D would be to avoid a significant POD until 1939, and then start WWII then, following OTL but roping the U.S. into the war early. The most likely scenario discussed (in the thread linked in the OP) was to have the Texas or other battleship encounter and sink the Bismark (or other German capital ship) within the 300-mile neutrality zone. That's doable, but would require a significant re-organization of my plot and character interactions to make it work (due to some interpersonal stuff, raising of children, and children immigrating to the U.S. within the plot). Could I do it? Certainly. Do I want to? Heck no

I suppose, at the end of the day, my story may end up leaning closer to historical fiction rather than alternate history.

@Brak After doing a VERY cursory dig into The War That Came Early, I did see some merit to the idea of Gibraltar being lost to a Sanjurjo who isn't killed in a crash--without the ensuing madness of the rest of Turtledove's plot. Perhaps Condor Legion troops reinforce Gibraltar and Kriegsmarine or Regia Marina ships move to assist in a not-so-subtle play of Germany's/Italy's hand(s), encountering Royal Navy ships as they go (or, possibly, at Gibraltar).

 

[Brak]

The question then becomes: Why on Earth would they do such a thing?

Replying to earlier posts, I should have emphasized how small of an influence the "Germany gets off light" point has on my story as a whole. To be clear, my focus is on the story--which picks up at the outset of the war (whenever that is).

I would be perfectly fine with a scenario where either A) the POD is, as Brak suggested, the Condor Legion just decides to start a war, B) the POD is WWI continuing into 1919 and forcing Germany into an even less favorable peace, or C) literally anything that'll fit the desired scenario. Up to and including Mussolini finding stale French baguettes broken up and mixed into his pasta primavera and that somehow driving him over the edge.

Option D would be to avoid a significant POD until 1939, and then start WWII then, following OTL but roping the U.S. into the war early. The most likely scenario discussed (in the thread linked in the OP) was to have the Texas or other battleship encounter and sink the Bismark (or other German capital ship) within the 300-mile neutrality zone. That's doable, but would require a significant re-organization of my plot and character interactions to make it work (due to some interpersonal stuff, raising of children, and children immigrating to the U.S. within the plot). Could I do it? Certainly. Do I want to? Heck no

I suppose, at the end of the day, my story may end up leaning closer to historical fiction rather than alternate history.

@Brak After doing a VERY cursory dig into The War That Came Early, I did see some merit to the idea of Gibraltar being lost to a Sanjurjo who isn't killed in a crash--without the ensuing madness of the rest of Turtledove's plot. Perhaps Condor Legion troops reinforce Gibraltar and Kriegsmarine or Regia Marina ships move to assist in a not-so-subtle play of Germany's/Italy's hand(s), encountering Royal Navy ships as they go (or, possibly, at Gibraltar).

Sanjurjo truly died one of the stupidest and most preventable deaths in history.

 

[Volsky]

Sanjurjo truly died one of the stupidest and most preventable deaths in history.

Gotta have the best drip if you're going to go to war.