What If ISIS Captured Baghdad?

[Gillan1220]

On the absolute contrary. ISIS ran a very surprisingly sophisticated AFV modification and maintenance program.

Armour In The Islamic State - The Story Of ’The Workshop’

www.oryxspioenkop.com

Armour In The Islamic State - The DIY Works Of Wilayat Al-Khayr

www.oryxspioenkop.com

Oh totally

My point being they had M1A1 tanks verses technical and lost in 2014!

I saw subsequent videos of Iraqi M1s being used very well verses technicals and 'armoured' suicide cars

Good order and leadership makes men brave

The opposite as in Mosul makes them cowards - I am not blaming the soldiers as such more their pathetic leadership and officers

I saw a video of them replacing a turret on an M1 - so as you say surprisingly sophisticated

But it was still far below the capabilities of the Iraqi army

That's amazing. This is a mix of black market parts and turning tanks into Frankensteins! It reminds me how M18 Hellcat turrets were mounted on the hauls of T-34s during the Yugoslav Wars.

If it moves and shoots, it works.

Or maybe those FrankenAbrams were turned into static bunkers.

Still, these are vulnerable to A-10 Thunderbolts, AC-130s, and F/A-18s.

According to an IS documentary, IS was initially only planning to take part of the city, 2 of the western districts out of the total 8 of the city.

Why only part if they can take all? I thought the Caliphate wanted to stretch all beyond the Levant?

 

[Cryhavoc101]

That's amazing. This is a mix of black market parts and turning tanks into Frankensteins! It reminds me how M18 Hellcat turrets were mounted on the hauls of T-34s during the Yugoslav Wars.

If it moves and shoots, it works.

Or maybe those FrankenAbrams were turned into static bunkers.

Still, these are vulnerable to A-10 Thunderbolts, AC-130s, and F/A-18s.

Why only part if they can take all? I thought the Caliphate wanted to stretch all beyond the Levant?

The Caliphate wanted to 'take over the world' (yes I read that in Brains voice)

However given the initial attack was just 400 odd guys in black pyjamas in Toyota Technicals - realistically 'just' getting a foothold was a realistic goal in that initial attack - however they exploited the situation magnificently.

 

[mapuche lautarino]

in syria, what are the chances that the al nusra front and other islamist rebel groups will join isis?

 

[mapuche lautarino]

 

[Yogurtslavia]

in syria, what are the chances that the al nusra front and other islamist rebel groups will join isis?

Al nusra is a Al Qaeda affiliate if I remember correctly. So, given that Al Qaeda and ISIS hate each other, the chances probably arent high. Individual defection to ISIS is possible though, but not a full on merger.

 

[Yogurtslavia]

View attachment 812471

Im pretty sure this map is inaccurate in Idlib province. Although extremists had a big presence there, control was split with the FSA. The FSA was only driven out relatively recently.

 

[mapuche lautarino]

Al nusra is a Al Qaeda affiliate if I remember correctly. So, given that Al Qaeda and ISIS hate each other, the chances probably arent high. Individual defection to ISIS is possible though, but not a full on merger

I understand that isis separated from al qaeda, if that didn't happen, al qaeda could go as far as isis

 

[SirCecil]

This question hinges on two questions: Was it even possible for ISIS to capture Baghdad? And if it was and they did, would ISIS have pumped in everything and fought to the last there like in Raqqa and Mosul?

What do you think?

I think a more interesting question is what happens if ISIS decided to open up the Haditha Dam. There was a lot of contemporary discussion about the casualty figures that would be likely in such an event but not a lot about the aftermath.

 

[Yogurtslavia]

I understand that isis separated from al qaeda, if that didn't happen, al qaeda could go as far as isis

I dunno, maybe. ISIS has a very significant difference in its modus operandi then Al Qaeda.

 

[Gillan1220]

The Caliphate wanted to 'take over the world' (yes I read that in Brains voice)

However given the initial attack was just 400 odd guys in black pyjamas in Toyota Technicals - realistically 'just' getting a foothold was a realistic goal in that initial attack - however they exploited the situation magnificently.

Nonetheless, the world was collectively terrified of how this massive army came out of nowhere. For us who played Command and Conquer: Generals, the GLA basically sprang to life.

In fact, everyone who played it has noticed the similarities.

https://www.reddit.com/r/commandandconquer/comments/k67li7

It's also why after ISIS was defeated in Mosul in 2017, they tried to expand to Southeast Asia. Hence, why there was the Battle of Marawi in the same year. ISIS tried to reestablish the caliphate in the region between Borneo, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The area was already known for having Islamic rebels (MNLF/MILF/Bangasmoro Islamic Freedom Fighters) and other terror factions (Abu-Sayaff Group and J.I.).

in syria, what are the chances that the al nusra front and other islamist rebel groups will join isis?

Al nusra is a Al Qaeda affiliate if I remember correctly. So, given that Al Qaeda and ISIS hate each other, the chances probably arent high. Individual defection to ISIS is possible though, but not a full on merger.

Al-Qaeda considered ISIS an enemy.

There will be defections nonetheless. As we saw "moderate" Syrian opposition forces join ISIS in 2013-14 after the Syrian government forces were retaking rebel-held territory.

Im pretty sure this map is inaccurate in Idlib province. Although extremists had a big presence there, control was split with the FSA. The FSA was only driven out relatively recently.

The FSA lost their cohesion around this time when ISIS rose because of many defections. By 2015-16, the FSA ceased to exist as a unified force.

I understand that isis separated from al qaeda, if that didn't happen, al qaeda could go as far as isis

No they had different agendas. AQ did not want to create a "global caliphate". It limited itself to terror attacks.

I think a more interesting question is what happens if ISIS decided to open up the Haditha Dam. There was a lot of contemporary discussion about the casualty figures that would be likely in such an event but not a lot about the aftermath.

If that happened, I think it would have caused an international rallying cry to destroy the group once and for all. Possibly, we would have seen a rare moment of NATO, U.S. allies, Russian, and Iranian cooperation in what was then the start of the decline of relations between Russia and the West.

I dunno, maybe. ISIS has a very significant difference in its modus operandi then Al Qaeda.

Just as I said above, AQ did not have megalomaniac plans to make an Islamic superstate in the Middle East.

 

[Yogurtslavia]

The FSA lost their cohesion around this time when ISIS rose because of many defections. By 2015-16, the FSA ceased to exist as a unified force.

Oh yea your right, nvm.

Just as I said above, AQ did not have megalomaniac plans to make an Islamic superstate in the Middle East.

AQ did have plans to do this, but it had a significantly different way of doing this than ISIS.

"Zawahiri also addressed the topic of the overall objectives of the Iraqi jihad and how they should be achieved. First, Zawahiri reaffirmed the centrality of the campaign in Iraq for al-Qaeda’s global strategy and instructed Zarqawi that his ultimate objective should be reestablishing the caliphate in the country. He wrote, “The victory of Islam will never take place until a Muslim state is established in the manner of the Prophet in the heart of the Islamic world, specifically in the Levant, Egypt, and the neighboring states of the Peninsula and Iraq.” Yet as a first step, Zawahiri counseled, Zarqawi’s primary nearterm objective should be expelling coalition forces from Iraq. Declaring the return of the caliphate too early was unwise, Zawahiri judged, because it might bring stronger external opposition against al-Qaeda in Iraq. Instead, Zawahiri argued that an emirate should be established in Iraq, but only after American forces had withdrawn. The al-Qaeda emirate should be allowed to grow and strengthen before the declaration of an Islamic state and the return of the caliphate."
- US Army In The Iraq War Volume 1

 

[Gillan1220]

Oh yea your right, nvm.

AQ did have plans to do this, but it had a significantly different way of doing this than ISIS.

"Zawahiri also addressed the topic of the overall objectives of the Iraqi jihad and how they should be achieved. First, Zawahiri reaffirmed the centrality of the campaign in Iraq for al-Qaeda’s global strategy and instructed Zarqawi that his ultimate objective should be reestablishing the caliphate in the country. He wrote, “The victory of Islam will never take place until a Muslim state is established in the manner of the Prophet in the heart of the Islamic world, specifically in the Levant, Egypt, and the neighboring states of the Peninsula and Iraq.” Yet as a first step, Zawahiri counseled, Zarqawi’s primary nearterm objective should be expelling coalition forces from Iraq. Declaring the return of the caliphate too early was unwise, Zawahiri judged, because it might bring stronger external opposition against al-Qaeda in Iraq. Instead, Zawahiri argued that an emirate should be established in Iraq, but only after American forces had withdrawn. The al-Qaeda emirate should be allowed to grow and strengthen before the declaration of an Islamic state and the return of the caliphate."
- US Army In The Iraq War Volume 1

I learn something new everyday. But it seems this Zawahiri is a megalomaniac with delusions of grandeur.

 

[Yogurtslavia]

I learn something new everyday. But it seems this Zawahiri is a megalomaniac with delusions of grandeur.

Funnily enough, captured senior lieutenants of Zarqawi compared Zarqawi to the Joker from The Dark Night.

 

[mapuche lautarino]

In any case, we live in a very different world from those years, and Isis has advanced in Mozambique and other territories. but apparently it is firmly exterminated in syria, iraq and afghanistan

 

[Gillan1220]

In any case, we live in a very different world from those years, and Isis has advanced in Mozambique and other territories. but apparently it is firmly exterminated in syria, iraq and afghanistan

After ISIS defeat in Mosul, they tried to reestablish itself elsewhere. Africa and Southeast Asia was one of those places. They were also crushed in the Philippines in 2017.

 

[Intergallactic]

After ISIS defeat in Mosul, they tried to reestablish itself elsewhere. Africa and Southeast Asia was one of those places. They were also crushed in the Philippines in 2017.

Africa is their main focus currently, especially the Sahel

 

[Gillan1220]

Africa is their main focus currently, especially the Sahel

Africa is closer to the Middle East and has a sizeable Muslim population. On top of that, internal security in Africa is hampered by poverty, unfavorable terrain, and corruption in the military and government officials. Those are breeding grounds to recruit ordinary disgruntled people to join ISIS.

The waters around maritime Southeast Asia are controlled by the U.S. and its allies, which have competent militaries and counterterrorist forces so it would be harder for ISIS to establish the caliphate there. Even if nearby Indonesia has the largest Muslim population in the world.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

The main thing that stopped ISIS on the outskirts of Baghdad were the Shi'ia militia, with a US bombing campaign acting in support. Given the sheer size of the Shi'ia population in the city and most of the rest of non-ISIS, non-Kurdish Iraq, this was probably an inevitability short of an ASB (or God himself, but I repeat myself) deciding to side with ISIS. It's no coincidence the territory that ISIS managed to overrun were more sympathetic (at least, to begin with) Sunni majority.

 

[Yogurtslavia]

In any case, we live in a very different world from those years, and Isis has advanced in Mozambique and other territories. but apparently it is firmly exterminated in syria, iraq and afghanistan

ISIS today is more capable than AQI was after the US nearly destroyed it post Surge during the Iraq war. Its a very resilient organization. There are around 10k ISIS fighters left in Iraq and Syria.

ISIS is back in the open in southern Syria

On Oct. 31, local units previously affiliated with the FSA launched a large-scale military operation against the al-Hafo-Harfoush group in the southern Syrian city of Daraa al-Balad. The operation followed a suicide bombing targeting the house of Ghassan al-Akram Abazid, a former FSA leader...

www.mei.edu

 

[Yogurtslavia]

Africa is their main focus currently, especially the Sahel

And Al Shaab in Somalia