What if Germany lost all the land west of the Rhine, instead of all the land east of the Oder-Western Neisse?

[Official B Dizzy]

My personal speculation is that Germany would be a richer and more powerful country today, since it would be larger, and would not have lost some of its most historically and culturally significant lands (i.e. Königsberg, the historic capital of Prussia).

I can't find exactly how much of German land is west of the Rhine, but by looking at a map, it's clearly less land than the pre-WWII Ostgebiete.

Would France even be able to populate all of this land? Their birth rate has been lower than Germany's for centuries, not sure why.

I assume there would be fewer expulsions in this timeline, it seems like France's MO for Germanic populations was to assimilate them instead of expelling them (i.e. Alsace-Lorraine, French Flanders/Dunkirk)

Where would the dividing line between East and West Germany be? Possibly it would even be the Oder-Western Neisse line?

 

[1962strat]

It’s less land but more important economically. The Valley of the Rhine holds the most population centres and industry out of all of Germany.

But anyways, the concept is implausible.

Let’s say that for some reason the Western Allies decide to be harsher on Germany in their occupation zone, and decide to strip the lands West of Rhine. Their options are:
- An independent puppet state. The most plausible option imo, but it would probably be folded into West Germany at some point during the Cold War much like the Saarland.
- Integration into France without ethnic cleansing. France would simply not want this cause it’s a mess waiting to happen. Far too many Germans to handle.
- Integration into France with ethnic cleansing. Simply out of character for the Western Allies without a massive POD.

As you see, the odds of this happening are low cause it was simply hard to pull off, or in moral bounds beyond where the WAllies were willing to go. Now, let’s assume for the sake of the discussion that this indeed happens. Why would the Soviets give a flying fuck about what happens in the Western occupation zone? They’ll still carry out their ethnic cleansing in the East to shift Poland further West and subsequently expand themselves.

 

[pompejus]

- Integration into France with ethnic cleansing. Simply out of character for the Western Allies without a massive POD.

Is it? The Dutch were planning to do just that if they would have gotten the territory they wanted

 

[PolishMagnet]

It’s less land but more important economically. The Valley of the Rhine holds the most population centres and industry out of all of Germany.

But anyways, the concept is implausible.

Let’s say that for some reason the Western Allies decide to be harsher on Germany in their occupation zone, and decide to strip the lands West of Rhine. Their options are:
- An independent puppet state. The most plausible option imo, but it would probably be folded into West Germany at some point during the Cold War much like the Saarland.
- Integration into France without ethnic cleansing. France would simply not want this cause it’s a mess waiting to happen. Far too many Germans to handle.
- Integration into France with ethnic cleansing. Simply out of character for the Western Allies without a massive POD.

As you see, the odds of this happening are low cause it was simply hard to pull off, or in moral bounds beyond where the WAllies were willing to go. Now, let’s assume for the sake of the discussion that this indeed happens. Why would the Soviets give a flying fuck about what happens in the Western occupation zone? They’ll still carry out their ethnic cleansing in the East to shift Poland further West and subsequently expand themselves.

I agree with this analysis.

We should also remember that for a long time, the Oder-Neisse line was rejected by many centre and right leaning Germans. It was easy for East Germany to accept the loss because...they didn't have a choice, and easy for West Germany to oppose it AND cooperate with NATO because NATO had not taken away anything unreasonable.

Once the cold war ended, there were few tensions between Germany and other nations that needed to be addressed. It was also far too late to challenge the Oder-Neisse line because well.... It was kind of history already.

Also "culturally significant" is a BIG subjective claim. I would argue Köln, Trier and Mainz are much more culturally significant to Germany than Königsberg.

 

[PolishMagnet]

Is it? The Dutch were planning to do just that if they would have gotten the territory they wanted

AFAIK that was a small piece of land. The left bank of the Rhine has a huge number of people.

 

[pompejus]

AFAIK that was a small piece of land. The left bank of the Rhine has a huge number of people.

Not particulairly small:

Dutch annexation of German territory after the Second World War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[1962strat]

Is it? The Dutch were planning to do just that if they would have gotten the territory they wanted

AFAIK that was a small piece of land. The left bank of the Rhine has a huge number of people.

Indeed. There’s a difference between displacing a few thousands and millions. Also as a counterpoint, Eupen-Malmedy in Belgium speaks German to this day, and France in Alasace-Lorraine only expelled the families that had come after 1871.

 

[PolishMagnet]

Not particulairly small:

Dutch annexation of German territory after the Second World War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Err... I have never seen plans as afar reaching as that, and besides, even the wiki page acknowledgesit was controversial in the Netherlands alone. I doubt such a sweeping annexation could have happened.

 

[1962strat]

Not particulairly small:

Dutch annexation of German territory after the Second World War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Err... I have never seen plans as afar reaching as that, and besides, even the wiki page acknowledgesit was controversial in the Netherlands alone. I doubt such a sweeping annexation could have happened.

Yup, the fact that not even the Netherlands itself could agree on it should tell you much about how accepted would this be on the West.

 

[pompejus]

Err... I have never seen plans as afar reaching as that, and besides, even the wiki page acknowledgesit was controversial in the Netherlands alone. I doubt such a sweeping annexation could have happened.

As I heard it, there were actualy even plans to annex (part of) the Rhur area, but that was rejected. This was an actual plan the Dutch government proposed. So there were certainly people within the western allies who did not care about displacing a large number of Germans.

Obviously the major western allies, the British and American opposed it. That said, I think the major reason was not humanitarian ones or concern for the Germans, but because they were seeing the wrining on the wall for the coming cold war and because the British did not want to lose such a major part of their occupation zone. Create a different situation in which the Soviet Union was mostly defeated and no longer a major factor, I could easily see the western Allies be less lenient towards Germany like they were OTL, especialy the French.

 

[BiasHangover]

The eastern lands were more important. Being that Germans will undergo Francisation in the west but still exist, whereas in the east they underwent genocide.

So the comparison becomes:

• 20m west Germans speaking french
• 20m east Germans ethnically cleansed

So the east is the bigger loss.

 

[Jürgen]

I think the most likely West German border changes would the Dutch expansion and the loss of South Schleswig to Denmark. I think In case of the Dutch expansion they would start the deportation and then give up rather fast. While in South Schleswig we would not see any attempt at ethnic cleansing.

 

[RousseauX]

Would France even be able to populate all of this land? Their birth rate has been lower than Germany's for centuries, not sure why.

I assume there would be fewer expulsions in this timeline, it seems like France's MO for Germanic populations was to assimilate them instead of expelling them (i.e. Alsace-Lorraine, French Flanders/Dunkirk)

Definitely not in the same way the Poles were able to populate "West Poland"

Assimilation wouldn't work over the course of 50 years or so (successful cases of assimilation of conquered territories tend to involve mass ethnic cleansing), I suspect the French would have to create "Westphalia" as a client state rather than try to administer it directly

The probability of reunification in 1989 would be very high: that being said, if France objected enough and wait it out eventually by the 2010s-2020s you would have a generation who don't have any memory of a unified Germany, kinda like how the younger gen in South Korea dont' have any memory of a united Korea. Eventually over time geopolitical boundaries might harden cultural/national identities and "Westphalia" become something like another Austria.

 

[RousseauX]

The eastern lands were more important. Being that Germans will undergo Francisation in the west but still exist, whereas in the east they underwent genocide.

So the comparison becomes:

• 20m west Germans speaking french
• 20m east Germans ethnically cleansed

So the east is the bigger loss.

20 million west Germans are def not gonna speak French in this scenario

Allies didn't even have the political will to complete denazification of fairly high ranking Nazis in West Germany otl, there's no way France alone can force 20 mil germans to speak French

 

[HelloThere]

As much as I want to say (as a proud Westfalian) that getting rid of the Rhineland would be a huge benefit for Germany, in reality it wouldn't. Also why would France want that part of Germany? The USSR used the German eastern territories to compensate Poland for it's annexations of Eastern Poland. France doesn't have to compensate itself or some other nation.

 

[BiasHangover]

Definitely not in the same way the Poles were able to populate "West Poland"

Assimilation wouldn't work over the course of 50 years or so (successful cases of assimilation of conquered territories tend to involve mass ethnic cleansing), I suspect the French would have to create "Westphalia" as a client state rather than try to administer it directly

The probability of reunification in 1989 would be very high: that being said, if France objected enough and wait it out eventually by the 2010s-2020s you would have a generation who don't have any memory of a unified Germany, kinda like how the younger gen in South Korea dont' have any memory of a united Korea. Eventually over time geopolitical boundaries might harden cultural/national identities and "Westphalia" become something like another Austria.

I agree the French route was acculturalisation rather than genocide. I do however think France could hold it if: they are economically prosperous, military dominance and Western acceptance.

20 million west Germans are def not gonna speak French in this scenario

Allies didn't even have the political will to complete denazification of fairly high ranking Nazis in West Germany otl, there's no way France alone can force 20 mil germans to speak French

That's if acculturzation is successful.

As much as I want to say (as a proud Westfalian) that getting rid of the Rhineland would be a huge benefit for Germany, in reality it wouldn't. Also why would France want that part of Germany? The USSR used the German eastern territories to compensate Poland for it's annexations of Eastern Poland. France doesn't have to compensate itself or some other nation.

"Natural borders". And argubly, such annexation would be far more morally acceptable than soviet ethnic cleansing.

Revised population stats.

5,800,000 Germans west of the Rhine, plus another 2,160,000 Germans in Alsace.

So the comparison of which hurt more, 8,000,000 West Germans forcibly Francized, whereas 14,600,000 East Germans ethnically cleansed in the east and 2,500,000 Germans lost to genocide.

 

[Official B Dizzy]

It’s less land but more important economically. The Valley of the Rhine holds the most population centres and industry out of all of Germany.

But anyways, the concept is implausible.

Let’s say that for some reason the Western Allies decide to be harsher on Germany in their occupation zone, and decide to strip the lands West of Rhine. Their options are:
- An independent puppet state. The most plausible option imo, but it would probably be folded into West Germany at some point during the Cold War much like the Saarland.
- Integration into France without ethnic cleansing. France would simply not want this cause it’s a mess waiting to happen. Far too many Germans to handle.
- Integration into France with ethnic cleansing. Simply out of character for the Western Allies without a massive POD.

As you see, the odds of this happening are low cause it was simply hard to pull off, or in moral bounds beyond where the WAllies were willing to go. Now, let’s assume for the sake of the discussion that this indeed happens. Why would the Soviets give a flying fuck about what happens in the Western occupation zone? They’ll still carry out their ethnic cleansing in the East to shift Poland further West and subsequently expand themselves.

But it's also less important culturally. Germany losing East Prussia would be like the US losing the former 13 colonies area, in terms of historical and cultural importance.
Ethnic cleansing isn't out of character for the Western Allies at all, after all, they signed off on doing it to the East Germans...

I agree with this analysis.

We should also remember that for a long time, the Oder-Neisse line was rejected by many centre and right leaning Germans. It was easy for East Germany to accept the loss because...they didn't have a choice, and easy for West Germany to oppose it AND cooperate with NATO because NATO had not taken away anything unreasonable.

Once the cold war ended, there were few tensions between Germany and other nations that needed to be addressed. It was also far too late to challenge the Oder-Neisse line because well.... It was kind of history already.

Also "culturally significant" is a BIG subjective claim. I would argue Köln, Trier and Mainz are much more culturally significant to Germany than Königsberg.

This is why I think East Germany served a useful purpose...it gave West Germany the ability to recognize its own borders without needing to accept the permanent loss of the Ostgebiete. Accepting reunification at the expense of essentially legitimizing the ethnic cleansing of the east was an example of pragmatism overriding principle.

As I heard it, there were actualy even plans to annex (part of) the Rhur area, but that was rejected. This was an actual plan the Dutch government proposed. So there were certainly people within the western allies who did not care about displacing a large number of Germans.

Obviously the major western allies, the British and American opposed it. That said, I think the major reason was not humanitarian ones or concern for the Germans, but because they were seeing the wrining on the wall for the coming cold war and because the British did not want to lose such a major part of their occupation zone. Create a different situation in which the Soviet Union was mostly defeated and no longer a major factor, I could easily see the western Allies be less lenient towards Germany like they were OTL, especialy the French.

The Western Allies were complicit in the ethnic cleansing of the east, they weren't at all lenient towards Germany

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Just why didn't France get a chance to take the lands up to its natural borders after WWI or WWII, anyway? Literally the best time in history to inflict crushing territorial punishments upon Germany.

 

[BiasHangover]

But it's also less important culturally. Germany losing East Prussia would be like the US losing the former 13 colonies area, in terms of historical and cultural importance.
Ethnic cleansing isn't out of character for the Western Allies at all, after all, they signed off on doing it to the East Germans...

Soviets were gonna do it regardless, so I think signing off on it was more recognising what they couldn't stop.
In the case where the Western Allies did do ethnic cleansing, such as Austria, the number was population transfer was small and there wasn't large scale violence and death.

 

[1962strat]

But it's also less important culturally. Germany losing East Prussia would be like the US losing the former 13 colonies area, in terms of historical and cultural importance.

No, that’s just plain false. East Prussia and Königsberg were culturally significant for Prussia, not Germany. German civilization existed in the Rhine way, way before East Prussia was even German speaking.

Ethnic cleansing isn't out of character for the Western Allies at all, after all, they signed off on doing it to the East Germans...

It was ultimately a Soviet call in which the WAllies couldn’t have intervened even if they wanted to.

Just why didn't France get a chance to take the lands up to its natural borders after WWI or WWII, anyway? Literally the best time in history to inflict crushing territorial punishments upon Germany.

Several reasons:
1- France didn’t win the world wars alone, in fact ended up in both as a junior partner with less influence than their co-belligerents, more so in WW2. This meant that there were other countries with their own interests, which conflicted with this. In WW1, France annexing the Rhineland could not be reconciled with neither Wilson’s advocacy of self-determination or Britain’s insistence in keeping the balance of power. The fought Napoleon tooth and nail to avoid this, why would they allow it now?

2- By the time this happened, French ambitions had been greatly tempered down from Napoleon’s days. Almost nobody advocated for the “natural borders“ anymore, it was simply not a realistic prospect.

3- The logistics of it. France’s demographics were already declining and were greatly hit by WW1, so even if you expelled the several million germans, finding enough Frenchmen to repopulate it while not crippling other French areas would have been hard. Annexing the area full of Germans is an extremely stupid idea in the age of nationalism.