Natural death dates of unnaturally deceased figures

I wonder how long Joan could have lived without...you know
I was just talking with @Mitridates the Great in another thread about how she living longer could have gone
The French elites need her gone as she is dangerous for them, and if they can't kill her or betray her they can send her to a Crusade to Jerusalem, something about what one acquaintance of mine wrote an AH vignette in Russian, I can probably translate it
 
For an interesting divergence in China, what would have been the impact of Song Jiaoren not being assassinated in 1913 by a "lone gunman"?
 
Two Four more guys I would like to add:

Captain James Cook - One can make the case that his newfound hot-tempered attitude, and the state of his mental health by the time of his third voyage, caused his death by making an ill-fated attempt to kidnap a Hawaiian chief. Nonetheless, I think there was a decent chance that he would've still died on his third voyage but had he survived the third voyage, aside from a promotion (Commodore? double promotion to some Admiral rank?) and return to his role as Captain of Greenwich Hospital, I'd give him about five years (dying in ~1785 at the age of ~57). Also the fact that explorers also have a tendency to die within a few years of their final voyages/retirement.

Alexander Hamilton - I'm not totally sure how much the death of his son affected him but in his later portraits, you can tell that he aged quite a bit by the time he died. Would he go the way of Dean Martin or Theodore Roosevelt and die partially from melancholy due to the death of his son or would he die as a wise old man, weathered by his personal and political experiences in life (a bit like John Adams, at least from the HBO series)? I'll vaguely give him about twelve more years (dying in ~1816 at the age of 59 or 61). Much as I would like to have him live to the 1840s and 1850s and to give us a surviving photograph of him... (Adams was the only Founding Father to make it to 90 I believe, please correct me on that one).

Prince Thammathibet - Siamese poet prince who was heir presumptive (Front Palace) to the throne of the Ayutthaya Kingdom. He was implicated in affairs with either one of his father's queen or four of his father's concubines and was summarily executed as punishment in 1755/57 (alongside the woman or women implicated with him). Just ten years later, Ayutthaya would disintegrate due to a Burmese invasion while one of his brothers who eventually became king, Ekkathat, gave an underwhelming effort against the Burmese invaders, although what I would argue was typical in the beliefs prevalent during his time period (Siam was mostly at peace with Burma in the previous 160 years between 1600 and 1760). This means that I don't believe that Ekkathat was a terrible ruler (despite what mainstream Thai historiography has to say about him), nor if Thammathibet could've done a much better effort against the Burmese, but maybe the butterflies would've just been enough (at best, perhaps becoming a Burmese tributary state, the Konbaung invasions of Siam were inventible, in my opinion). Like most Ayutthaya kings, he would probably live to his 40s/50s (from the sources that I have, they don't list his birth year, unfortunately), probably somewhere in the mid-to-late 18th century.

An interesting butterfly would be that had the sacking of Ayutthaya been prevented, the vigor of the future Siamese dynasties (Thonburi and Chakri dynasties) wouldn't have materialized, meaning that how Siam handles the West in the 19th century this TL would be very unpredictable. Would Siam go War Doctor mode (Doctor Who reference) and done the same as they did OTL or would they (after surviving the 1760s Burmese invasions) fall into complacency once more and fall to the West or to another Burmese invasion (maybe even a Vietnamese invasion) later on in the late 18th/19th centuries.

King Ananda Mahidol (Rama VIII) - The 20-year-old king of Thailand, mysteriously found dead with a gunshot wound to his head in June of 1946. Thailand at that time was going through a brief resurgence of democracy, following the discrediting of the military, who had sided with Japan during WWII and was out of the political limelight in 1946. Rama VIII's death sparked a chain reaction, which included the resignation of a leftist Thai Prime Minister, effectively causing the end of post-war Thai democratic governance and a return of Thai military rule by 1947. Had Rama VIII lived, Thai democracy would've likely survived longer against military opposition, and at the least, delayed the return of a military government by a few years (in the long run, it would inflame further democratic sentiments in Thailand with a longer surviving democratic period). He would, in this alternate world, die at the age of 94 in 2020, following an 85-year-long reign (he was only nine years old when he became king in 1935).

Sources (third inclusion only):
Baker, Chris, Phongpaichit, Pasuk, "A History of Ayutthaya: Siam in the Early Modern World", 2017.
Wyatt, David K. "Thailand: a Short History (Second Edition)", 2003.
Lieberman, Victor M. "Strange Parallels in Southeast Asia, Vol I.", 2003.
 
Last edited:
George Armstrong Custer's father lived to be 86. Had Custer survived Little Bighorn and reached the same age, he would have died in 1925, likely as one of the last surviving generals of the Civil War.

Applying the same principle to Joseph P. Kennedy, Jr., who to my knowledge didn't suffer from the same health problems as his next younger brother, would have him dying at the age of 81 in 1996, one year after his mother, who IOTL lived to be 104. If "Kick" Kennedy achieved that feat, she would still be alive today at the age of 102.
 
George Armstrong Custer's father lived to be 86. Had Custer survived Little Bighorn and reached the same age, he would have died in 1925, likely as one of the last surviving generals of the Civil War.

Possible but bit doubtful. That someone's father lives to age of X not mean that his son automatically lives at same age. Dpends much of living habits and stress. And Custer seemed being bit hot-blood guy. I wouldn't be amazed if he would had died from heart attack on his 70's.

Anyway, wasn't Custer colonel during the civil war?

Applying the same principle to Joseph P. Kennedy, Jr., who to my knowledge didn't suffer from the same health problems as his next younger brother, would have him dying at the age of 81 in 1996, one year after his mother, who IOTL lived to be 104. If "Kick" Kennedy achieved that feat, she would still be alive today at the age of 102.

Agree that JPK Jr. would live at same age as his father. But I highly doubt that he would live at same age as his mother. Edward Kennedy (only Kennedy brother who wasn't killed at war/assassinated) died at age of 76 from cancer.

Intrestingly oldest child of Joseph P. Kennedy Sr. died at age of 92 so any of his children weren't even close of age of their mother's age when died.
 
Possible but bit doubtful. That someone's father lives to age of X not mean that his son automatically lives at same age. Dpends much of living habits and stress. And Custer seemed being bit hot-blood guy. I wouldn't be amazed if he would had died from heart attack on his 70's.

Anyway, wasn't Custer colonel during the civil war?



Agree that JPK Jr. would live at same age as his father. But I highly doubt that he would live at same age as his mother. Edward Kennedy (only Kennedy brother who wasn't killed at war/assassinated) died at age of 76 from cancer.

Intrestingly oldest child of Joseph P. Kennedy Sr. died at age of 92 so any of his children weren't even close of age of their mother's age when died.
Custer was a general in the volunteer Army during the Civil War but more or less demoted to lieutenant colonel during the postwar demobilization. As for using the same-gender parent's age, I'm just using that as a general ballpark of what could be expected given genetics and the quality of medical care available at the time.
 
The French elites need her gone as she is dangerous for them, and if they can't kill her or betray her they can send her to a Crusade to Jerusalem, something about what one acquaintance of mine wrote an AH vignette in Russian, I can probably translate it
Could you develop this argument? I'm not quite sure why Joan is supposed to be "dangerous" to the French elites.

If it's because of the fact that she apparently has access to the King's ear, well, all kings have a favorite advisor. Often a churchman or a fervent believer. And what they did was live with that, not despair because the counselor did not finish dying.
 
I wonder how long Joan could have lived without...you know
I was just talking with @Mitridates the Great in another thread about how she living longer could have gone
I would say she could probably live to a reasonably old age. She seems to have been fairly active and had no major health problems so I could see her living to her late 60's or maybe even into the 70s if she got really lucky but the poor quality of medical care makes that unlikely
Could you develop this argument? I'm not quite sure why Joan is supposed to be "dangerous" to the French elites.

If it's because of the fact that she apparently has access to the King's ear, well, all kings have a favorite advisor. Often a churchman or a fervent believer. And what they did was live with that, not despair because the counselor did not finish dying.
I guess its because of her low birth? That doesn't work either though because plenty of Kings had really lowborn advisors. Thomas Wolsey was the son of a butcher and he managed 20 something years as Henry VIII's chief minister with no real widespread opposition
 
I would say she could probably live to a reasonably old age. She seems to have been fairly active and had no major health problems so I could see her living to her late 60's or maybe even into the 70s if she got really lucky but the poor quality of medical care makes that unlikely

I guess its because of her low birth? That doesn't work either though because plenty of Kings had really lowborn advisors. Thomas Wolsey was the son of a butcher and he managed 20 something years as Henry VIII's chief minister with no real widespread opposition
I imagine they'll say it's because she's a woman. The problem is that the Queen Regent was not only a woman, but she was actively working for the English. And the other non-Armagnac nobles and councilors were very happy about it.

So if they could tolerate as regent a German who was hated by the people and was in cahoots with the English, I don't know why they would be so hostile to a French commander. Especially one that doesn't seem to have anything remotely resembling personal ambition, and have popular support.
 
I imagine they'll say it's because she's a woman. The problem is that the Queen Regent was not only a woman, but she was actively working for the English. And the other non-Armagnac nobles and councilors were very happy about it.

So if they could tolerate as regent a German who was hated by the people and was in cahoots with the English, I don't know why they would be so hostile to a French commander. Especially one that doesn't seem to have anything remotely resembling personal ambition, and have popular support.
To be completely fair to Isabella she only sided with the English after Charles became political poison after he may or may not have murdered the Duke of Burgundy at a diplomatic meeting and her husband was insane as well so its sort of hard to blame her for shacking up with the English.
 
I imagine they'll say it's because she's a woman. The problem is that the Queen Regent was not only a woman, but she was actively working for the English. And the other non-Armagnac nobles and councilors were very happy about it.

So if they could tolerate as regent a German who was hated by the people and was in cahoots with the English, I don't know why they would be so hostile to a French commander. Especially one that doesn't seem to have anything remotely resembling personal ambition, and have popular support.
To be completely fair to Isabella she only sided with the English after Charles became political poison after he may or may not have murdered the Duke of Burgundy at a diplomatic meeting and her husband was insane as well so its sort of hard to blame her for shacking up with the English.
Did Joan of Arc even show any political skill when she was still alive? Politics in the medieval European court can be quite a slippery slope, chances are, she would've suffered a political downfall later in her life had she remained in court (just like many nobles/advisors in history who lived for too long), or she retires back to where she came from once she sees her duty to save France as finished.
 
Did Joan of Arc even show any political skill when she was still alive?
Not that I know off but she did so some canny PR skills(To the point she actually got the Wife of an English Duke to vouch for her virginity) and seems to have been extremely Charismatic so I think she could have held on for a decent amount of time
or she retires back to where she came from once she sees her duty to save France as finished.
Apparently thats what she wanted to do In OTL so probably I guess
she would've suffered a political downfall later in her life had she remained in court,
Maybe but I guess she would only ever be sidelined at best. No King of France would ever be willing to face the sheer public backlash from executing her.
 
Did Joan of Arc even show any political skill when she was still alive? Politics in the medieval European court can be quite a slippery slope, chances are, she would've suffered a political downfall later in her life had she remained in court (just like many nobles/advisors in history who lived for too long), or she retires back to where she came from once she sees her duty to save France as finished.
Apparently Joan just wanted to go home when she finished her homework. She never claimed to have more ambition than to liberate France. She could very well just go back to her home village and quietly fade into darkness, Cincinnatus-style.

It is doubtful that anyone would push to execute her if it is clear that all she wants is to go back to her house and be left alone. Why any noble would risk creating a bad image for himself by staging the execution of a Saint, when "the problem" is just going to walk out of court on its own?
 
Apparently Joan just wanted to go home when she finished her homework. She never claimed to have more ambition than to liberate France. She could very well just go back to her home village and quietly fade into darkness, Cincinnatus-style.
I could see one of Charles Successors rocking up to her village to ask for her blessing or something like that. Though thats probably the extent of her meddling in politics in this scenario. IDK maybe she's trotted out at every new kings coronation to lead a parade in Paris or whatever.
 
Last edited:
I could see one of Charles Successors rocking up to her village to ask for her blessing or something like that. Though thats probably the extent of her meddling in politics in this scenario
Yes. I mean, it would make sense that they wanted to get rid of Joan if she showed more political ambitions than that. Like trying to crown herself Lady Protector or something.

Even so, I am not so sure that she would attract such a strong and unified opposition against her, since all the people who made these kinds of movements had her own supporters. And none had the reputation of being the Saint who rid the country of the evil enemy.

But if Joan doesn't display those kinds of ambitions, the drawbacks of staging her execution outweigh the benefits.
 
Yes. I mean, it would make sense that they wanted to get rid of Joan if she showed more political ambitions than that. Like trying to crown herself Lady Protector or something.

Even so, I am not so sure that she would attract such a strong and unified opposition against her, since all the people who made these kinds of movements had her own supporters. And none had the reputation of being the Saint who rid the country of the evil enemy.

But if Joan doesn't display those kinds of ambitions, the drawbacks of staging her execution outweigh the benefits.
Yeah fair enough. Though I could see somebody having her poisoned but whoever tried would be playing with fire. At worst even if she really fucks up I think she would spend maybe like a few months in jail before being publicly reconciled with the king and sent off back home.
 
Last edited:
Yeah fair enough. Though I could see somebody having her poisoned but whoever tried would be playing with fire. At worst even if she really fucks up I think she would spend maybe like a few months in jail before being publicly reconciled with the king and sent off back home.
I could see her be imprisoned or exiled for life if she is perceived as too dangerous (or if powerful people use her for their own benefits).
 
Top