Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
Although an airborne assault on Chios and Lesvos appears logical, there are two points to be made:
1. This will merely serve the Turks, not the Germans. The Germans are not concerned about the Smyrna's pocket, it's the Turks that want it.
2. Supplying paratroopers in Lesvos and Chios would be challenging.
3. Paratroopers alone cannot block the entrance to the Smyrna harbor, all the have is small arms. The Germans would need to bring in artillery and aircraft (which all need to be resupplied) to make a difference.
Apart from that, deploying the paratroopers in mainland Greece would be an option, if the Axis were attempting a major offensive to achieve a breakthrough. For now, it seems more logical to use them in the Middle East with the goal to secure Iraq. With Iraq secured, the situation of the Soviet Union during the upcoming invasion becomes worse.
1. This will merely serve the Turks, not the Germans. The Germans are not concerned about the Smyrna's pocket, it's the Turks that want it.
2. Supplying paratroopers in Lesvos and Chios would be challenging.
3. Paratroopers alone cannot block the entrance to the Smyrna harbor, all the have is small arms. The Germans would need to bring in artillery and aircraft (which all need to be resupplied) to make a difference.
Apart from that, deploying the paratroopers in mainland Greece would be an option, if the Axis were attempting a major offensive to achieve a breakthrough. For now, it seems more logical to use them in the Middle East with the goal to secure Iraq. With Iraq secured, the situation of the Soviet Union during the upcoming invasion becomes worse.
Firstly I would say that you are having very good arguments here and there is no reason to hold back if something is bothering you. It is fun to discuss about hypothetical offensives either way.
I would say here that the paratroopers can be retrieved and used again in Russia if they survive the clash which in German mind they should.
This one is the best idea really here. If you think that this almost is done in Lemnos and Imbros some months before as mentioned ITTL. I would guess that they couldn't be supplied easily so close to the Greek front lines and with their fleet on guard the Turks couldn't support them either. To disrupt the supply line they would need either airfields, which they already have in Lemnos, or coastal artillery which needs ships to be transported. Small boats wouldn't do match due to destroyer escorts that the supply ships would certainly have. Now getting those islands would be a hit but taking them with light infantry and no artillery is a big drawback.(ninja-ed above)
Here I think the problem is the lack of airports to supply the troops. say they take the highlands around all those places in the Geek mainland(Amphilochia, Aitoliko & Antirio), what they do next if the frontline doesn't brake? They are closed behind lines without any hope of escape and with very limited supplies in a very hostile environment a recipe for disaster really. An attack in Euboea is the best operation due to the closeness in German supplies and its flanking capabilities on the Allied front. It would be a good escalation of the front and pressure the allies to breaking point. I give the benefit of the doubt that we don't know the strength of the Euboea garrison.
I think that while it seems an interesting concept, but the whole idea of drooping paras far from the Front and wait/hope that the friendly forces would be able to connect with them in time. It'd seemed to be assuming that the friendly air forces would be able first to commit entirely to the operation and that, at least, they'd be able to contest the airspace over mainland Greece. Both things that, IMO, 'd be on this war stage, highly dubious...
Finally, this hypothetically Axis' planing seems to lay on the supposition that if not all of them, that at least most of the Paras units, would be able to resist/fought off successfully any of the Allied attempts to wipe them out... At, least to me, it, it's giving me the three bridges too far, kind of vibes...
This would have been the best option but 3 different things work against it.
1) When it would have been most effective; before the Turkish navy was broken ITTL March 30th; Turkey was more co-belligerent than ally. Turkey has joined the war more out of opportunity than any deep affinity for the axis. Had the Allies/Greeks acquiesced to Turkish demands for their territory they would have stayed neutral at least in the short term. So there wasn't the time for pre-war joint planning between Turkey and Germany that would have made this feasible as part of an opening gambit. Even when they had joined the war the co-operation between allies was minimal. We see in part 69 the Italian and Turkish navies both deploy; Turkey ironically to attempt to take the very islands we are discussing; but don't even attempt to co-ordinate their actions and as a result both are defeated badly. One of the issues of a Fascist ideology is that when a large part of your legitimacy is built on restoring or enhancing national glory acting in concert with allies goes directly against it. Turkey HAD to try to do it themselves first for national pride and they failed and now that they are willing to take the help the opportunity is gone.
2) There is now no Axis naval presence capable of operating in the central Aegean now that could reinforce/resupply the paratroopers and as a result any mass drop on the island would be doomed to failure. The time for co-operation to break Smyrna would have been before March 30th ITTL. Now the Turkish navy is decisively outclassed by the Greek/British forces in the region and even a major push by axis airforces would be unlikely to have the same success as Crete because the Greek navy would be willing to take losses far in excess of OTL naval forces defending Crete.
3) The final point against the operation comes from OTL and that is simply, the German high command probably wouldn't want to do it. Germany is first and foremost a land power and despite a reputation for daring thrusts is overall a fairly conservative bunch outside of a couple Generals. If the operation was brought before them it is likely they would look at the Turkish navy, the Italian navy, and the allied navies and just say no to operation based on the high chance of failure. Though Fallujah has many of the same risks because there is no naval component it seems like it would be safer since the vaunted allied navies can't intervene.
As for Turkish troops being available for the Eastern Front I will just say that per German planning OTL and I assume ITTL Turkish troops are not necessary because the Soviets are going to be broken by the winter and at that point it is just sweeping up. Turkey joining in the fun would actually be bad for German interests because if they help and are decisive well than they may expect to get some of the spoils up to and including the Baku region. Now of course we know that isn't going to happen but that was more or less German strategic thinking so Smyrna, and Greece really aren't abandoned just......ignored for a couple months while the Germans deal with more pressing matters. I am sure there are already plans to transfer a whole Panzer Army from the Eastern front to Greece in late fall being drawn up right now at German HQ.
I would like to make a post on the situation at North Africa.
First of all logistics. From the start of the war, the British were extending the narrow gauge railroad leading to Mersa Matruh. Before the onset of Compass, the railhead reached Qasaba. In TTL there is no interruption of the Sonnenblume and loss of Cyrenaica. To be honest, the progress of railroad building depends on how soon the British will involve the New Zealander contruction units and allocate rails. The rails do exist (Raj) and the construction troops are in the theatre. The New Zealanders managed to work at a superb rate of 2 miles per day. Matruh to Tobruk is 250 miles. Matruh to Ajdabiya is 470 miles. Basically it depends on what priority Wavell assigns to the railroad construction. As I see it, by OTL Crusader the railhead can reach Tobruk, Adjabiya or any place between them. In any case, it would help tremendously with logistics.
The "Crusader Project is always very helpful when it comes to the Western Desert War in 1941. https://rommelsriposte.com/2011/06/01/capacity-of-tripoli-and-benghazi-harbours-1941/
In any case, the only port available to the Axis is Tripoli. Benghazi, Tobruk and the Western Desert Railway give a major advantage to the British, despite the ever existing wear and tear.
When it comes to Tripoli we know the following facts:
- Hurricanes can reach Malta from the Peloponnese or Cyrenaica. E.g. the Squadron (forget the number need to check my books) that started arriving from Benghazi in OTL will be already at the island without a successful Sonnenblume.
- Illustrious has been damaged. I presume that as in OTL her Swordfish squadron is in Malta further demonstrating its usefulness.
- Regia Aeronautica has bled much worse in the Balkans compared to OTL. They still have an open front over european Greece so they can invest fewer resources in Sicily and Libya compared to OTL.
- With southern Greece and Cyrenaica secure, Cunningham has a corridor safe from air attacks to project power in the relatively open central Mediterranean. Nothing can stop him popping once a fortnight to Sirte and hurling thousands of tonnes of high explosives over the area. With enough minesweepers he can try to bombard Tripoli again.
- The British may have a lot a fair number of tanks between Sirte and El Agheila but they haven't lost the 2nd Armoured and 3rd Indian Motor Brigade as in OTL. Destroyed units are always more difficult to reconstruct and need more resources. Furthermore, they haven't lost their supply dumps in Cyrenaica along with their airfields and shops were damaged aircraft and tanks were being repaired.
First of all logistics. From the start of the war, the British were extending the narrow gauge railroad leading to Mersa Matruh. Before the onset of Compass, the railhead reached Qasaba. In TTL there is no interruption of the Sonnenblume and loss of Cyrenaica. To be honest, the progress of railroad building depends on how soon the British will involve the New Zealander contruction units and allocate rails. The rails do exist (Raj) and the construction troops are in the theatre. The New Zealanders managed to work at a superb rate of 2 miles per day. Matruh to Tobruk is 250 miles. Matruh to Ajdabiya is 470 miles. Basically it depends on what priority Wavell assigns to the railroad construction. As I see it, by OTL Crusader the railhead can reach Tobruk, Adjabiya or any place between them. In any case, it would help tremendously with logistics.
The "Crusader Project is always very helpful when it comes to the Western Desert War in 1941. https://rommelsriposte.com/2011/06/01/capacity-of-tripoli-and-benghazi-harbours-1941/
I think the British can squeeze more capacity out of Benghazi just by having more suitable merchantmen.
In any case, the only port available to the Axis is Tripoli. Benghazi, Tobruk and the Western Desert Railway give a major advantage to the British, despite the ever existing wear and tear.
When it comes to Tripoli we know the following facts:
- Hurricanes can reach Malta from the Peloponnese or Cyrenaica. E.g. the Squadron (forget the number need to check my books) that started arriving from Benghazi in OTL will be already at the island without a successful Sonnenblume.
- Illustrious has been damaged. I presume that as in OTL her Swordfish squadron is in Malta further demonstrating its usefulness.
- Regia Aeronautica has bled much worse in the Balkans compared to OTL. They still have an open front over european Greece so they can invest fewer resources in Sicily and Libya compared to OTL.
- With southern Greece and Cyrenaica secure, Cunningham has a corridor safe from air attacks to project power in the relatively open central Mediterranean. Nothing can stop him popping once a fortnight to Sirte and hurling thousands of tonnes of high explosives over the area. With enough minesweepers he can try to bombard Tripoli again.
- The British may have a lot a fair number of tanks between Sirte and El Agheila but they haven't lost the 2nd Armoured and 3rd Indian Motor Brigade as in OTL. Destroyed units are always more difficult to reconstruct and need more resources. Furthermore, they haven't lost their supply dumps in Cyrenaica along with their airfields and shops were damaged aircraft and tanks were being repaired.
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My reply was to Lascaris's passing inquiry about the OTL absence of Ethiopians from the MTO. Nothing to do with TTL.
Now that Greece has survived, they need to re-equip their Army. The needs are many. I expect Ion Dragoumis to be doing his best to procure equipment. However, Britain has to also equip its army and that of the Dominions and the Arsenal of Democracy is still gearing up its industry.
There is one thing I recently read. Apparently, the Americans in early 1941 were willing to part with a significant amount of old heavy artillery. Particularly, 300 155mm guns and 434 8-inch howitzers. I m pretty sure that Pangalos would want his field army to have modern, fast-deploying howitzers like the 25pdr or the american 105mm. But the slow, old 8-inch howitzers won't be used at a divisional level. They can have one role and one role only: hurl huge amounts of HE against the besieging lines at Smyrna. Along with the 155mm ones, they constitute an incredible amount of firepower.
In OTL the delivered old american artillery was basically unused. It was either used for Home Defence or for training. So, I doubt the British would raise an issue about it. It doesn't even need precious shipping to be convoyed from the Atlantic: straight from California or the Panama Canal. The Americans have more than enough shipping in that part of the world or Dragoumis can sent a few greek merchantmen.
There is one thing I recently read. Apparently, the Americans in early 1941 were willing to part with a significant amount of old heavy artillery. Particularly, 300 155mm guns and 434 8-inch howitzers. I m pretty sure that Pangalos would want his field army to have modern, fast-deploying howitzers like the 25pdr or the american 105mm. But the slow, old 8-inch howitzers won't be used at a divisional level. They can have one role and one role only: hurl huge amounts of HE against the besieging lines at Smyrna. Along with the 155mm ones, they constitute an incredible amount of firepower.
In OTL the delivered old american artillery was basically unused. It was either used for Home Defence or for training. So, I doubt the British would raise an issue about it. It doesn't even need precious shipping to be convoyed from the Atlantic: straight from California or the Panama Canal. The Americans have more than enough shipping in that part of the world or Dragoumis can sent a few greek merchantmen.
Lesvos and Chios without long range coastal guns are pretty useless. Even with long range guns at the closest it is 49km in a straight line between the two. Sure artillery of the era on both sides could cover this but at long range accuracy would be problematic...
The Turks have actually quite a bit of leeway with the Germans compared to other axis minor allies, not least due to the crush the German leadership, Hitler included had on the Turkish nationalists in general and Kemal in particular. Which was not reciprocated on Kemal's part but this doesn't mean it can't be exploited to an extend.
The Turkish navy is certainly very much outclassed by the Greeks and British particularly in combination, the Greeks could and did spend a fair bit more money in the interwar for their navy after all. This does not mean the TDK is out of the fight though. They've lost a coastal defence ship, a light cruiser and a single destroyer in the battle of Lesvos. Painful but they still have a panzerschiff, one light cruiser and 11 destroyers plus 14 submarines, though these are of varying qualities and the submarine force rather young the first subs becoming available in 1936. Put differently, the Turks did time their move correctly. But the allies had sufficient force to be able to fight two battles at the same time. With the Italians out of the picture for at least the next few months any similar attempt will need to wait...
Here lies a much more basic issue with German strategy. If your strategy is based on assuming the Soviets will be broken and forced behind the Urals before the new year, then actions that would look stupid in the expectation of a long war make sense. Like starting said war in the first place while still fighting the west. Which sums up the most common failure mode of Prussian/German strategic thinking, 1941 is just the most glaring example of it.
Two miles a day may be too high on average but yes the British are certainly extending the railroad west. It's part of their way of war after all...
They had ~400 aircraft in the Balkans and the time of Casibile and roughly similar numbers now, unfortunately detailed data for the whole RA and its casualties between April 41 and late 42 are not readily available but certainly having one more active front in the Balkans hardly helps. On the reverse the allies will also have to divert air forces against Turkey. On the Axis side helping the Bulgarians and Turks produce as many aircraft as possible locally would make absolute sense... and is questionable it will happen. If the Bulgarians and the Turks are building aircraft locally how are we going to sell them our own? Although a healthier Goering may have fun side effects here given his control of the Skoda works...
I would uhm question the British purchasing commission not acting stupid here given their track record with the export of fighter aircraft to Greece in OTL. Though here the Greeks can pull rather more strings and raise much more of a stink in the British establishment...
I agree that on average 2 miles per day sustained over many months might be too high. However, 1,5 miles seem very manageable and perhaps a bit more.
There is another thing though: Incentive is different in this timeline. In OTL until Crusader's success, the British were in no hurry of extending the railroad. The frontline was at the border, comfortable close to the previously extended railroad. However, in TTL they had to support a limited offensive to Sirte and support a corps-level formation at the western end of Cyrenaica. The incentive to start building earlier is significant greater in TTL. And as you say it is part of their way of war.
Moreover, they can throw more human resources at the construction. The vast majority of construction was done by 2 NZ railroad costruction companies and Palestinian labour. Now, what if they add an Australian Construction Company as well at the mix? They had experience with building and maintaining roads over deserts and rough terrain.
Exactly! In TTL Greece is a much more valuable ally to Britain and one that has proven its worth already in the Battle of Thermopylae. At this point, Dragoumis will have an open line with Churchill and Winston will be very enthousiastic about a victory of such symbolic importance.
I disagree with the view of many in the forum that Winston was guided by emotion or flights of fance when it came to policy. In my view he was much more calculating and the man understood high strategy and the need for inter-allied cooperation. Let me provide an example: when Churchill sent the 2nd BEF in France, Brooke saw immediately that the campaign was lost and was only interested in organizing an evacuation as soon as possible. Brooke was correct in his assessment that the battle is lost. But in terms of high strategy, Churchill understood that the most important action on June 1940 was to show that the British were resolved to continue the war, even while France was collapsing. It was not an emotional decision to show support to the French but a very pragmatic one. Even the loss of an understrength corps in June 1940 would be a very useful sacrifice if it meant a split french Cabinet and Assembly, with Reynaud , Mandel and 80 Deputies preferring to fight on. That's why Churchill was very explicit that he wanted Brooke to show that he is fighting. And Brooke did not follow orders.
So as I see it, Churchill is Greece's greatest ally in Westminster. Especially after Barbarossa, when the strategic importance of Greece and the Straits skyrockets. The british establishment knew their history and understood the importance of keeping the USSR in the war, the same high strategy their ancestors had against Louis XIV and Napoleon.
Now when it comes to british generals hoarding resources and not seeing the greater picture, there are a lot of butterflies to the OTL. First and foremost there is not the invasion panic of the OTL. There are more Poles in the UK to act as a garrison, even an enlarged norwegian brigade. The Kriegsmarine has been just dealt a very blow and there are french capital ships assisting their allies in Scapa. Even if in OTL there was a phantom of a need for american artillery in 1941, in TTL even this phantom is absent. This is why I believe that army-level heavy artillery park can be delivered to Greece until autumn 1941 at the latest.
By the way, I did not know that in addition to the 30 fighters, the first shipment of Lend-Lease included 50 artillery pieces. @Lascaris do you know what kind of artillery was it? I expect it to have been 75mm, either the american converted 18pdr or the french kind.
The link above also mentions the bottlenecks at Takoradi. With Dakar in its place being a much more developed base, is it fair assume that if any bottlenecks took place, they would have been resolved much earlier? Thus increasing the aircraft delivery to the theater.
I just think that in general TTL Greece would be treated better then otl due to them surviving and having competent people leading them. Greece had one of the biggest navies in the region and Britain can't lose that, which means they should be much more invested as any axis attack now would have a bigger response than otl too.
That is true. By the same token TTL the British and French have a need to be expanding the Syrian railroads in view of an active front against Turkey which was not present in OTL, to the same extend at least.
Churchill will be supportive of Greece. So will David Lloyd George who is somewhat more influential TTL. Further down the chain not everyone was as farsighted as seen time and again. Which will be fun to behold on an obvious likely point of friction between Greece and Britain, namely Cyprus. Churchill was the one to propose in 1913 that Britain should offer to Greece the island in exchange for an alliance correctly judging both the unionist sentiment within Cyprus and the effect it would have in effectively securing Greece as an adjunct to the Commonwealth afterwards. He was again favourable to the idea in 1940-41. The Colonial Office and the Joint Chiefs on the other hand...
75mm as seen here
In total 75 75mm and 60 155mm guns had been assigned to Greece as lend lease, the 50 guns in the table and the British official history were supposed to be the first shipment. Now how much is a reasonable total amount for lend lease to Greece (and Yugoslavia) is an interesting and different question. In 1942-43 the US production overhead from which the Free French army got armed sufficed for 16 divisions...
I quite agree! Simply, the importance of TTL Greece is quite higher than in OTL.
Another example I wanted to make of how said importance might influence things regards the Fighter Command. I expect that as in OTL, Fighter Command is going on with their idiotic strategy of the Circus Offensives over France, a policy that didn't produce any results and cost a lot of pilot lives. As in OTL, they do not send any Spitfires in the Mediterranean Theater of Operations.
However, I expect Ion Dragoumis to be screaming for modern fighters. He has been sly enough to release newsreels in USA showing Greeks in Ierax shooting down Axis aircraft. He can make a virulent case on the RAF not sending modern machines in Greece, neither for the british nor the allied (greek, yugoslav, french) squadrons. He is a PM, so he won't be talking to Sholto Douglas' deputy but directly to Number 10. Moreover, being the old propaganda operator he is, Dragoumis could provide indirect comments to the NY Times in the spirit of "We are fighting against all odds, defending our skies, even though we lack the modern fighters we need". Such actions raise havoc far above Sholto Douglas' paycheck.
Sikorski will push to send RAF's polish squadrons to Greece as well: right now the majority of the Polish Forces in Exile are fighting hard in Greece. He needs to be seen as doing everything he can so that the Poles are having the best support possible. Right now the corps in Greece is his government's greatest asset. His own opposition of the Sanation Party will be rubbing their hands if they can make accusations against Sikorski. Therefore, I believe that he will try to lobby as well for more Spitfire squadrons to be sent to Greece.
But who will oppose the wishes of the Allied PMs? Will it be the RAF in general? Portal? From what I gather, the Bomber Barons were not behind the strategy of the Circus Offensives. It was strictly Leigh Mallory and Sholto Douglas. Would Portal and his clique stick their neck out and burn political capital in order to support the Fighter Command? I am not so sure. Lastly, we have to remember that in OTL Churchill and his Cabinet did not have influential stakeholders (such as the Greek PM) to push for deploying Spitfires at the Mediterranean Theater. The OTL stakeholders that would need Spitfires such as Longmore, Tedder or Park would not have access to Churchill but they would have to ask Sholto Douglas.
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Part 76
TOMTAS aircraft factory, Kayseri, May 30th, 1942
The first 2 THK squadrons equipped with licence built Re-2000 fighters were activated. Deliveries, had been delayed as the original Piaggio engines had been unavailable and the Turks had to wait for the Germans to deliver Gnome Rhone 14 engines from occupied France instead. If no hiccups with engine and other imported component deliveries occurred, production from now on was expected to average 6 to 7 aircraft per month.
Cyrenaica, June 1st, 1941
The Benghazi-Suluq railroad reached Sultan a further 70km to the west. Back in early January the planned extension of the Egyptian railroad network in the Western Desert had stopped 13km west of Mersa Matruh, as it seemed the O'Connor's advance westwards made the effort superficial. Then the German-Italian counterattack had driven the British back 300km but at least had failed to dislodge them from Cyrenaica. It had been proposed to restart the extension of the railroad from Mersa Matruh west but with the front being nearly 900 km to the west that made little sense, it would take up to 15 months to extend the railway all the way to the front. But Benghazi was a rather more manageable 280 km to the the front and the first 56km of it already had a railroad courtesy of the Italian Ferrovie dello Stato. Thus the decision was taken instead to extend the Benghazi railroad to the front. Construction had begun almost as soon as the front had been stabilized...
Iraq, June 2nd, 1941
Habbaniya fell to Axis forces after two weeks of fighting. The Germans, Turks and Iraqis continued their push westwards but the French and British while slowly giving up ground were hardly out of the fight.
Smyrna Line, June 3rd, 1941
Intermittent fighting had been ongoing for the past three weeks, while Smyrna and her harbour had been repeatedly bombed by the Germans, Turks and Italians but Fahrettin had refrained from launching a second full scale attack at least until the Germans could produce the reinforcements they had promised. The Germans had been quick to provide most of the material captured from the allied armies, as well as a smaller amount of modern equipment, sufficient arms to re-equip the equivalent of roughly three divisions all over but this was hardly a match for quantities the Turkish government had requested. Now admittedly said requests could be politely described as being on the excessive side.
Al Diwaniyah, Iraq, June 4th, 1941
General Slim's two brigades had advanced nearly 400km from Basra over the past week, meeting effectively no resistance. Now the Iraqi 4th Infantry division tried to hold them back but it proved no match for the advancing Indians. Within the day the 20th and 21st brigades were advancing again north. The 25th Indian brigade which had landed in Basra in May 30th would be soon be catching up with them. Karbala would fall to Slim's men 2 days later. By June 8th he would be threatening Fallujah forcing the Germans and Turks to divert forces for the fighting against the French and British in the west.
Syria, June 8th, 1941
The 7th Australian division moved north from Palestine to reinforce the French. Plans originally called for sending the Australians east to Iraq, but ULTRA intercepts from the north, had been worrying...
Helsinki, June 9th, 1941
The Finnish army begun mobilizing. Quite a bit of effort had been extended since the end of the Winter war, to reinforce the army and fortify the new Viipuri-Kuparsaari-Vuoksi-Taipale border.
Turkish-Syrian border, June 10th, 1941
For the past three months fighting on the Syrian frontier had been relatively limited as the Turks had not been strong enough to push back the French and the French too weak to push north. But this was not a situation Fevzi Cakmak was much inclined to see continue. Following the failure if the first attack against Smyrna there was no point keeping 19 divisions in front of the Smyrna fortifications, not till German reinforcements arrived at least. X Corps reinforced by the 61st Infantry division had been sent south. So had Fahrettin Altay and 2nd Army headquarters while Kazim Orbay took over the siege of Smyrna now at the head of 1st army. Then with the second battle of Thermopylae over the German XXX Corps had been also sent to reinforce Fahrettin. Ten Turkish and German divisions attacked south into Syria...
Appendix Near East Theatre military casualties January 1st - June 1st, 1941
Appendix, Division Count Near East and Caucasus Theatres
The first 2 THK squadrons equipped with licence built Re-2000 fighters were activated. Deliveries, had been delayed as the original Piaggio engines had been unavailable and the Turks had to wait for the Germans to deliver Gnome Rhone 14 engines from occupied France instead. If no hiccups with engine and other imported component deliveries occurred, production from now on was expected to average 6 to 7 aircraft per month.
Cyrenaica, June 1st, 1941
The Benghazi-Suluq railroad reached Sultan a further 70km to the west. Back in early January the planned extension of the Egyptian railroad network in the Western Desert had stopped 13km west of Mersa Matruh, as it seemed the O'Connor's advance westwards made the effort superficial. Then the German-Italian counterattack had driven the British back 300km but at least had failed to dislodge them from Cyrenaica. It had been proposed to restart the extension of the railroad from Mersa Matruh west but with the front being nearly 900 km to the west that made little sense, it would take up to 15 months to extend the railway all the way to the front. But Benghazi was a rather more manageable 280 km to the the front and the first 56km of it already had a railroad courtesy of the Italian Ferrovie dello Stato. Thus the decision was taken instead to extend the Benghazi railroad to the front. Construction had begun almost as soon as the front had been stabilized...
Iraq, June 2nd, 1941
Habbaniya fell to Axis forces after two weeks of fighting. The Germans, Turks and Iraqis continued their push westwards but the French and British while slowly giving up ground were hardly out of the fight.
Smyrna Line, June 3rd, 1941
Intermittent fighting had been ongoing for the past three weeks, while Smyrna and her harbour had been repeatedly bombed by the Germans, Turks and Italians but Fahrettin had refrained from launching a second full scale attack at least until the Germans could produce the reinforcements they had promised. The Germans had been quick to provide most of the material captured from the allied armies, as well as a smaller amount of modern equipment, sufficient arms to re-equip the equivalent of roughly three divisions all over but this was hardly a match for quantities the Turkish government had requested. Now admittedly said requests could be politely described as being on the excessive side.
Al Diwaniyah, Iraq, June 4th, 1941
General Slim's two brigades had advanced nearly 400km from Basra over the past week, meeting effectively no resistance. Now the Iraqi 4th Infantry division tried to hold them back but it proved no match for the advancing Indians. Within the day the 20th and 21st brigades were advancing again north. The 25th Indian brigade which had landed in Basra in May 30th would be soon be catching up with them. Karbala would fall to Slim's men 2 days later. By June 8th he would be threatening Fallujah forcing the Germans and Turks to divert forces for the fighting against the French and British in the west.
Syria, June 8th, 1941
The 7th Australian division moved north from Palestine to reinforce the French. Plans originally called for sending the Australians east to Iraq, but ULTRA intercepts from the north, had been worrying...
Helsinki, June 9th, 1941
The Finnish army begun mobilizing. Quite a bit of effort had been extended since the end of the Winter war, to reinforce the army and fortify the new Viipuri-Kuparsaari-Vuoksi-Taipale border.
Turkish-Syrian border, June 10th, 1941
For the past three months fighting on the Syrian frontier had been relatively limited as the Turks had not been strong enough to push back the French and the French too weak to push north. But this was not a situation Fevzi Cakmak was much inclined to see continue. Following the failure if the first attack against Smyrna there was no point keeping 19 divisions in front of the Smyrna fortifications, not till German reinforcements arrived at least. X Corps reinforced by the 61st Infantry division had been sent south. So had Fahrettin Altay and 2nd Army headquarters while Kazim Orbay took over the siege of Smyrna now at the head of 1st army. Then with the second battle of Thermopylae over the German XXX Corps had been also sent to reinforce Fahrettin. Ten Turkish and German divisions attacked south into Syria...
Appendix Near East Theatre military casualties January 1st - June 1st, 1941
| Country | Total casualties |
|---|---|
| German | 37,435 |
| Italian | 60,191 |
| Bulgarian | 46,577 |
| Turkish | 97,288 |
| Hungarian | 3,335 |
| Greek | 208,773 |
| Yugoslav | 41,283 |
| British | 21,765 |
| French | 7,642 |
| Polish | 18,033 |
Appendix, Division Count Near East and Caucasus Theatres
| Nationality | Thessaly | Epirus | Ionia | Caucasus | Iraq | Syria | Occupation |
| Greek | 10 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| British | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| French | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Polish | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Serb | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Soviet | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| German | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Italian | 15 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| Turkish | 0 | 0 | 15 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
| Bulgarian | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Croatian | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Hungarian | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Looks a hot situation for the Allies in Syria, yet with hindsight, we can say if the Soviets kick in from the Caucasus in July, Turkey will be hard pressed to sustain a prolonged offensive into central Syria. Do the Turks at least know of Barbarossa coming or have they been kept in the dark? In the latter case, I'd imagine they might be horrified to see their war plans thrown into disarray.
I expect Aleppo is untenable, while Lebanon, Anti Lebanon and jabal ar ruwaq provide a good anchor to defend Damascus (little chance of an uprising succeeding here, since it's too far away from the frontlines and the French were not shy from shelling and bombing the city into submission which they did twice actually) from any force coming up the Orontes from Hama and Homs (assuming the expected Syrian revolt facilitates an advance this deep this fast); that's positing that advancing to Damascus and Palestine with Lebanon and the ports of Tripoli Beirut in the flank or rear is very dangerous to the communication lines.
If the French and the aligned Kurds can hold onto their redoubt behind the Euphrates, perhaps helped by retreating forces from Habbaniyah, they would be a thorn in the flank of any advance southwards (I assume the Turkish VII corps operating down from the Tigris river will be fixed by Slim and the Indian forces south around Baghdad); but how much of a thorn can that be?
I expect Aleppo is untenable, while Lebanon, Anti Lebanon and jabal ar ruwaq provide a good anchor to defend Damascus (little chance of an uprising succeeding here, since it's too far away from the frontlines and the French were not shy from shelling and bombing the city into submission which they did twice actually) from any force coming up the Orontes from Hama and Homs (assuming the expected Syrian revolt facilitates an advance this deep this fast); that's positing that advancing to Damascus and Palestine with Lebanon and the ports of Tripoli Beirut in the flank or rear is very dangerous to the communication lines.
If the French and the aligned Kurds can hold onto their redoubt behind the Euphrates, perhaps helped by retreating forces from Habbaniyah, they would be a thorn in the flank of any advance southwards (I assume the Turkish VII corps operating down from the Tigris river will be fixed by Slim and the Indian forces south around Baghdad); but how much of a thorn can that be?
Since we see twice in this update that the Turks believe that they will get German reinforcements, it is almost certain that they have not been informed about Barbarossa ... Their forces in Caucasus are not enough to attack the Soviets (unless the Soviets are forced to relocate significant forces from Caucasus to other fronts). On the other side, the Soviets could attack, since Kars is an excellent starting point for an invasion. However the possible German advance in western USSR and the Luftwaffe using some airfiels in Eastern Turkey could slow or even stop any Soviet advance in the Caucasus front. The Baku oilfields are much more vulnerable also with the Luftwaffe being able to base its bombers in Eastern Anatolia. However, I don't think that there will be a significant bombing campaign against them, since according to the Germans "the Soviets will collapse in a few weeks or months and we need that oil".
Well in Iraq and Syria the Axis have an advantage greater than 2-1 , not reflecting equipment though, and have open desert to walk across. A possible Syrian revolt is a very obvious threat so maybe the French promise freedom after the war to placate the Syrians? They could be a useful manpower addition really although the tensions since the Syrian revolt could through a wrench on things.
I wonder If the railroad in Cyrenaica will reach the front before the Germans break it. Then in could be used as a retreating road to safely move the supplies to safety so they don't fall to German hands and of course move troops faster to establish new defense lines.
Seeing those casualties I hope it counts POWs and wounded out of action soldiers cause those are some terrifying numbers for Greece.
I wonder If the railroad in Cyrenaica will reach the front before the Germans break it. Then in could be used as a retreating road to safely move the supplies to safety so they don't fall to German hands and of course move troops faster to establish new defense lines.
Seeing those casualties I hope it counts POWs and wounded out of action soldiers cause those are some terrifying numbers for Greece.
Casualties in military terms are the number of soldiers taken out of action i.e deaths, injuries missing and prisoners of war.
So while the greeks have taken frightening losses the number does not mean deaths.
However i have the feeling that while the turks, and italians are busy fighting in the various fronts and are not able to "pacify" the territories they hold,but the Bulgarians do not have such problems and i expect that Bulgarian occupied Macedonia and Thrace will be the first regions to see ethnic cleansing in occupied Greece...
Italy really wants to knock out Greece don't they. Also oof those casualties, I mean Greece seems to have given just as good as they've got (slightly better actually if I read that right), but 208k has got to hurt especially with a smaller pop than their enemies, and that's not counting civilian casualties, which I imagine is not a small number between the Bulgarians and the Turks. That's quite a bit higher than our timeline as well, both for the Greeks and the Axis depending on the breakdown.
Setting aside their own casualties the Greeks must be/will be feeling a bit proud, cause I think that's more axis casualties than the French managed to inflict during the Battle of France, and they're still unconquered. The French were up against a lot more but...
How much information sharing was there between Axis members about Barbarossa in our timeline actually? If the Italians know here/knew otl then I don't know why Turkey wouldn't have been clued in, but as others have pointed out their expectation of German aid doesn't seem to account for a Russian war anytime soon. It's way too late for them to try to peace out with the allies at this point, but maybe we'll see a Turkish Rudolf Hess or something like it since the original's dead? I expect the Turkish upper echelons to get very drunk come the 22nd (or whenever it kicks off).
Setting aside their own casualties the Greeks must be/will be feeling a bit proud, cause I think that's more axis casualties than the French managed to inflict during the Battle of France, and they're still unconquered. The French were up against a lot more but...
How much information sharing was there between Axis members about Barbarossa in our timeline actually? If the Italians know here/knew otl then I don't know why Turkey wouldn't have been clued in, but as others have pointed out their expectation of German aid doesn't seem to account for a Russian war anytime soon. It's way too late for them to try to peace out with the allies at this point, but maybe we'll see a Turkish Rudolf Hess or something like it since the original's dead? I expect the Turkish upper echelons to get very drunk come the 22nd (or whenever it kicks off).