Iran Invasion of Afghanistan 1998

[Potomac89]

August 8th, 1998. The Taliban storms the Iranian Consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif. 10 Iranian diplomats and a journalist were killed in the siege. Subsequently, 70,000 Iranian soldiers were placed on the border, waiting for the go ahead to launch into Afghanistan. At the last minute though, cooler heads prevailed and the invasion was called off.

What if it wasn't though...

What would have happened if they got the green light to proceed? Afghanistan's history of dealing with foreign powers is well established. The Iranian military would not have had even close to the capability that the Soviets had in the 80s or later that the Americans had in the 2000s, who both found it difficult to wage war in Afghanistan to say the least. It seems as if the Iranians would have had a difficult time. However, they would have perhaps had some things going for them. The terrain of Afghanistan is similar to Iran. Afghanistan was mired in a civil war at the time and the Northern Alliance who were battling the Taliban at the time, would surely have welcomed them. The long oppressed Shia minorty, would also surely have approved of the Iranian incursion.

So, how would things have most likely played out? Would the Iranians and the Northern Alliance been able to push the Taliban out? Would the conflict have been a disaster for the Iranians and led to a quick withdrawal? Or would the conflict have turned into a prolonged stalemate, like other wars in the country?

Something else to consider, if the Iranians had launched an invasion, what would Al-Qaeda's response have been? Would they have stood idly by and stayed focused on attacking Western targets? Could they resist getting involved in a struggle against the great Shia power and if they did get involved would it have hurt their ability to launch terrorist attacks on the USS Cole or the World Trade Centers?

I know that's a lot of questions to consider, but I appreciate all responses that I get! Thank you.

 

[Monk78]

Afghanistan's history of dealing with foreign powers is well established

our view of afghan “resistance “ is heavily colored by experiences of western powers half hearted military adventures which were plagued by ineffective COIN, myopic strategic goals and no effort to truly subjugate the local population.
The afghans have been conquered and defeated by many invaders in the past like mongols Turks Uzbeks Persians , Sikhs to name a few. So they are far from invincible rather afghan chiefs were very opportunistic and quickly came to terms with a foreign power if it was willing to use brutal ways to suppress them.Such methods could not be used in 20th century warswithout significant negative publicity.

Only reason why afghans lasted so long against soviets is because most of the “free” world was backing them and soviet involvement at a far smaller level than US commitment in SE Asia

Iranians if they could get something like 100k troops in Afghanistan would be far more effective than nato or soviet ones in pacifying the locals esp in the Persian speaking part of the country

 

[Potomac89]

our view of afghan “resistance “ is heavily colored by experiences of western powers half hearted military adventures which were plagued by ineffective COIN, myopic strategic goals and no effort to truly subjugate the local population.
The afghans have been conquered and defeated by many invaders in the past like mongols Turks Uzbeks Persians , Sikhs to name a few. So they are far from invincible rather afghan chiefs were very opportunistic and quickly came to terms with a foreign power if it was willing to use brutal ways to suppress them.Such methods could not be used in 20th century warswithout significant negative publicity.

Only reason why afghans lasted so long against soviets is because most of the “free” world was backing them and soviet involvement at a far smaller level than US commitment in SE Asia

Iranians if they could get something like 100k troops in Afghanistan would be far more effective than nato or soviet ones in pacifying the locals esp in the Persian speaking part of the country

Awesome post! So, with at least a somewhat successful invasion of Afghanistan, what fallout do you foresee from that?

 

[Monk78]

Awesome post! So, with at least a somewhat successful invasion of Afghanistan, what fallout do you foresee from that?

Thanks
Most likely fragmentation of the existing state but Pakistan will jump in to counter Iranians as they would not tolerate a hostile state right next door
India might help Iran too possibly Russia but not sure if they can do much

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

I don't think the Iranians would try to occupy the entire country. They'd do something similar to what Turkey is doing in Syria. Occupy border territory and build up a native proxy army/government.

 

[Monk78]

I don't think the Iranians would try to occupy the entire country. They'd do something similar to what Turkey is doing in Syria. Occupy border territory and build up a native proxy army/government.

Exactly
They would not want to try the Pashtun areas

 

[Rufus]

Another thing to consider are the bombings of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, which incidentally happened just the day before the attack on the Iranian consulate. If Iran invades Afghanistan to take out the Taliban (and by extension Al Qaida), then there could be some kind of temporary alliance of convenience with the US, who was doing airstrikes against Al Qaida bases in Afghanistan and Sudan in response to the embassy bombings. Maybe this might lead to better relations in the long term.

 

[PMN1]

IIRC, there was a good timeline about this many many years ago.

 

[naraic]

linguistic map of afghanistan - Google Search

Linguistic map of Afghanistan which may be useful.

 

[Deleted member 2186]

August 8th, 1998. The Taliban storms the Iranian Consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif. 10 Iranian diplomats and a journalist were killed in the siege. Subsequently, 70,000 Iranian soldiers were placed on the border, waiting for the go ahead to launch into Afghanistan. At the last minute though, cooler heads prevailed and the invasion was called off.

If Iran launches a invasion and manged to capture a city like Herat, which is close to its border and has a Sh’iite Muslim minority and Iran then uses the city as a staging base to move more into Afghanistan they will like the Soviets before them get bogged and be stuck trying to defending themselves in Herat.

 

[Potomac89]

Also, something to consider, what would the international reaction have been? Surely, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan would have objected, but what about the Western nations? I feel as if the US would have tried to stop the invasion, but it would definitely be tempting for them to have Iran do some dirty work against the Taliban/Al Qaeda, no?

 

[Potomac89]

I don't think the Iranians would try to occupy the entire country. They'd do something similar to what Turkey is doing in Syria. Occupy border territory and build up a native proxy army/government.

I completely agree with that, do yo think they could have pulled that off?

 

[stevej713]

I completely agree with that, do yo think they could have pulled that off?

It's debatable how successful Turkey's operations in Syria have been so far. Considering how no external invader has managed to create a stable political situation in Afghanistan in the last 40 years, I doubt Iran would be much more successful. As the Soviet Union and the United States have found out, invading the country is the easy part - creating a stable native regime afterwards is the hard part. I think the best thing Iran can hope for is to have a loyal faction that can share power in the north and west portions of the country and can either negotiate with the Taliban or be capable of defending themselves against them. The Northern Alliance was on the verge of being destroyed by the Taliban by 9/11.

 

[ImperialxWarlord]

Would it be safe to say that 9/11 could be butterflied away by such an invasion? If Iran gets heavily involved in Afghanistan could we see al queda focus on Afghanistan and not go for 9/11?

 

[Otto Kretschmer]

How far into Afghanistan can Iranian army press? Remember Iranian army in 1998 is much weaker than in 2021 and much much weaker than Soviet army of 1980s

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

our view of afghan “resistance “ is heavily colored by experiences of western powers half hearted military adventures which were plagued by ineffective COIN, myopic strategic goals and no effort to truly subjugate the local population.

Not to mention people talking about Alexander the Great's conquest, even though Afghanistan didn't exist back then. Heck despite talk about the British "failure" in Afghanistan, it should be noted they did successfully partition the country, and the part they carved out is still part of Pakistan, not Afghanistan.

Another thing to consider are the bombings of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, which incidentally happened just the day before the attack on the Iranian consulate. If Iran invades Afghanistan to take out the Taliban (and by extension Al Qaida), then there could be some kind of temporary alliance of convenience with the US, who was doing airstrikes against Al Qaida bases in Afghanistan and Sudan in response to the embassy bombings. Maybe this might lead to better relations in the long term.

Alliance? Probably not. But a co-belligerency is plausible.

 

[black_sn0w_]

Not sure how to tag a user, but rvbomally made a map of such a scenario:

Map Thread XII

Interesting that those books also discuss zones of occupation in the Japanese-held territories of China, implying that the decision to return those areas to Chinese rule hadn't been made yet. They also note that even in the pursuit of a zone of occupation in Japan, Stalin was not at all...

www.alternatehistory.com

Not super realistic with areas of control, but foreign backers seem reasonable. This map takes the stance that Iran will get bogged down into a long struggle. Even if Iran stays only in areas closer to its border like Herat, Farah, and Zaranj and supports proxies, what's the end goal? With Taliban likely holding firm in Pashtun areas unless the US invades, and many countries and groups becoming more and more impatient with Iran like they are with Turkey and its actions in Syria, would there be any advantage in staying and to keep up spending to maintain control over their territory?

 

[kholieken]

semi-autonomous Herat government as end goal ? with economy, military, and cultural ties with Iran. with Shiah gain favored status with holy sites protection, pilgrimage, education and charity. with Hizbullah in Lebanon as model.

 

[Potomac89]

Another thing to consider are the bombings of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, which incidentally happened just the day before the attack on the Iranian consulate. If Iran invades Afghanistan to take out the Taliban (and by extension Al Qaida), then there could be some kind of temporary alliance of convenience with the US, who was doing airstrikes against Al Qaida bases in Afghanistan and Sudan in response to the embassy bombings. Maybe this might lead to better relations in the long term.

Great perspective, I had forgotten the timing of that!

 

[Deleted member 2186]

How far into Afghanistan can Iranian army press? Remember Iranian army in 1998 is much weaker than in 2021 and much much weaker than Soviet army of 1980s

Far enough that they get bogged down.