With a POD after 1400, prevent any colonization of the Asian continent by European powers. This includes coastal towns/forts like Goa or Macau but does not include contiguous land conquests like Russia's eastwards expansion.
AHC: Stop All European Colonization in Asia
- Thread starter AtreusHashim
- Start date
A PoD after 1400? Well, that excludes the Black Death wankscrew, which makes everything in AH harder...
Jokes aside, this is going to be extremely difficult, since you’d need to screw the entire western half of the European continent at once, if not the economic logic they ran on itself. Portugal was gearing up to do its thing very, very soon after the PoD (they didn’t try to conquer Morocco for the holiday destination), and after that you’ve got five hundred years to prevent. If Portugal shoots themselves in the foot, you’ve still got Spain, France, England, the Netherlands, even the Danes... I guess the simplest way of doing this would be fiddling with Indian politics - that is, a PoD outside of Europe - but even then, the advantages of Western trade for the Indians themselves shouldn’t be understated.
To be honest, I’m not sure this is plausible with a PoD in 1400, at least without an unsatisfying Everybody Dies 2: Bubonic Boogaloo.
Jokes aside, this is going to be extremely difficult, since you’d need to screw the entire western half of the European continent at once, if not the economic logic they ran on itself. Portugal was gearing up to do its thing very, very soon after the PoD (they didn’t try to conquer Morocco for the holiday destination), and after that you’ve got five hundred years to prevent. If Portugal shoots themselves in the foot, you’ve still got Spain, France, England, the Netherlands, even the Danes... I guess the simplest way of doing this would be fiddling with Indian politics - that is, a PoD outside of Europe - but even then, the advantages of Western trade for the Indians themselves shouldn’t be understated.
To be honest, I’m not sure this is plausible with a PoD in 1400, at least without an unsatisfying Everybody Dies 2: Bubonic Boogaloo.
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What is the definition of colonization? You say no Macau, but what about concessions and treaty ports and the like?
Regardless, your best bet is to just have more stable and powerful local empires that allow European merchants some privileges but also beat them to the punch for colonies. Suppose a more assertive Mughal Empire, that allows Europeans to have some concession in parts of their port cities (but said cities are still under Mughal rule), and also has some outlying colonies/satellites/puppets in, say, SE Asia. There, the Europeans don’t have room to set up their own colonies and have to stick to the (still quite profitable) role of middle men.
Regardless, your best bet is to just have more stable and powerful local empires that allow European merchants some privileges but also beat them to the punch for colonies. Suppose a more assertive Mughal Empire, that allows Europeans to have some concession in parts of their port cities (but said cities are still under Mughal rule), and also has some outlying colonies/satellites/puppets in, say, SE Asia. There, the Europeans don’t have room to set up their own colonies and have to stick to the (still quite profitable) role of middle men.
As noted, the POD is only barely before Portugal got their expansion on, but how about having them stumble across Brazil? The Portuguese were already set to expand along the coast of Africa in search of trade routes, so expanding along the coast of South America with the same motive is possible, and as long as they venture north instead of south, they'll eventually discover empires flush with gold.
This won't stop Portugal from desiring trade with the Asian empires, but it'll split their attention and manpower, and you can have too few Portugese heading to Asia to require more than their own bits of trading cities. On its own this isn't enough, but it does buy time for a secondary POD to come into play and keep the Europeans out permanently.
This won't stop Portugal from desiring trade with the Asian empires, but it'll split their attention and manpower, and you can have too few Portugese heading to Asia to require more than their own bits of trading cities. On its own this isn't enough, but it does buy time for a secondary POD to come into play and keep the Europeans out permanently.
CaliforniaPerson296
Banned
Bump into South America by the Portuguese start that off earlier, let the Asian States build up with trade with the west.
But not quite too late to do things to whoever is sitting on the Silk Road and by-the-time-they-reach-the-Mediterranean
overland spice trade routes that used to be one reason given for why people started looking for sea routes.
I don't think that when the Europeans went to Asia, they actualy planned on colonising Asia. They went to Asia simply to trade. Colonising sort of happened to them. I think the key is not to keep the Europeans out of Asia, but simply to prevent them from actualy colonising stuff. Surely it is possible to limit European influence in Asia to some minor trading presense in Asian cities. Kind of like the Dutch Decima in Japan, but then all over Asia. So the Europeans trade, but never conquer and thus colonise Asia.
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Absolutely doable.
The Ottomans win their competition with the Portuguese (or they are out of the picture in the first place; maybe annexed by Castille/León) and have control of the Indian Ocean trade, making other incursions by other powers more difficult. Butterflies happen and most Indian nations and China modernize or at least are strong enough to prevent outright invasion. It was a close enough thing with the British anyway. There's no interest in places like the Philippines or the most remote parts of Indonesia until later, and by then they've fallen into Asian empire's spheres of influence.
Leave Russia divided (could stem from the same Ottoman POD): it just never unifies in the first place, remaining independent kingdoms and city states with ocassional Polish, Ottoman and Hungarian meddling. What would be Russian Siberia and Central Asia remains dominanted by steppe khanates and sultanates.
There's the loophole that the Ottomans technically are an European power... But all this is still doable with a 1400s POD.
The Ottomans win their competition with the Portuguese (or they are out of the picture in the first place; maybe annexed by Castille/León) and have control of the Indian Ocean trade, making other incursions by other powers more difficult. Butterflies happen and most Indian nations and China modernize or at least are strong enough to prevent outright invasion. It was a close enough thing with the British anyway. There's no interest in places like the Philippines or the most remote parts of Indonesia until later, and by then they've fallen into Asian empire's spheres of influence.
Leave Russia divided (could stem from the same Ottoman POD): it just never unifies in the first place, remaining independent kingdoms and city states with ocassional Polish, Ottoman and Hungarian meddling. What would be Russian Siberia and Central Asia remains dominanted by steppe khanates and sultanates.
There's the loophole that the Ottomans technically are an European power... But all this is still doable with a 1400s POD.
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Well there you have it. Russia conquers all of Asia! No that's not ASB, why would you even suggest that?
More seriously, things only got as far as they did because the Europeans had military superiority on both land and at sea, and for a while the advantages were mainly at sea. Your prompt basically just calls for denying them naval supremacy, which can be achieved with a couple of naval Asian powers. Vijayanagar, if it survived, might have turned to the sea and helped keep the Europeans at bay some. They employed Portuguese sharpshooters OTL IIRC, so they seem willing to adapt. But honestly I don't think they would survive long enough to work. Perhaps if the Japanese Empire gets started earlier?
somehow a joint Portugese Spanish invasion of Granada becomes a disaster of the levels of the battle of Alcacer Qabir , only not only the Portuguese, but the Spanish undergo a dynastic crisis. leading to civil war and the breaking of Iberia into city states, just like in Italy. Perhaps even leading to a limited Re reconquesta of sorts.
this should stop Iberia from all colonial efforts. not just Asia.
As for Britain, simply have them do better in the 100 years war and have them not lose their french territories, this should force them to focus on the European Mainland and not elsewhere. Also France is now in no place for any colonial adventures.
this should stop Iberia from all colonial efforts. not just Asia.
As for Britain, simply have them do better in the 100 years war and have them not lose their french territories, this should force them to focus on the European Mainland and not elsewhere. Also France is now in no place for any colonial adventures.
By the time it becomes possible to stumble accross Brazil, the Portuguese would already have reaching India on the top of their priority list, and there is just no way that they will give up on that for some new land to the West where people run around naked...
Sure, if they sailed north for some reason they might eventually run into the Aztecs, but why would they do so? Southwards exploration along the African coast was initially driven by a desire to tap into Transaharan gold trade, then supplemented by other reasouces like ivory, pepper and slaves, and eventually by a desire to reach India after people began to realise that was possible (and especially after the fall of Constantinople which disrupted Mediteranean trade). Brazil's only resources that could be found right away were sugarcane and brazilwood, so a large divertion of resources after accidentally bumping into South America is basically impossible. People in the 15th and 16th century simply could not understand the potential of the America, while Asia was known to be extremely rich.
No matter how successful the Ottomans are against the Portuguese, they can conquer Daman and Diu and maybe even Goa if they're extremely lucky, they cannot prevent them from simply moving their outposts further somewhere else further south or east. Portuguese India consisted of a lot of scattered ports, so the Ottomans can't really eliminate it unless they somehow control of the entire Indian subcontinent.
As for taking the Portuguese out of the picture, if Portugal gets absorbed by Castille in the 15th century, what reason would Castille itself have not to sail to Asia (IOTL they only stayed out of India because of Tordesillas, and not even that was enough to keep them completely out of Asia as they eventually settled the Philippines)? It's certainly possible that a Castille-Portugal that is also united with Aragon could get involved in some sort of Italian quagmire, and it's also possible that they (or even an independent Portugal) could get very busy with North African crusading, but in the end, Asian trade is simply too big of a prize not to take in the long run. And even if Iberians are unable to do it for some reason, there will eventually be the Dutch, the British, even the Scandinavians...
You can slow it down and diminish it significantly, but the fact remains that as long as it's possible to sail around the cape, Europeans cannot be kept out of Asia indefinitely (at least not without one of those mega-black death scenarios)
Another relevant question: do the Ottomans count as European? Their capital is in Europe...
Lusitania
Donor
I sort of get upset by these threads due to author of thread posting first post and then being absent.
therefore due to absent thread owner as as many have said this thread is either ASB or can only be accomplished due to catastrophic events in Europe.
the reason the Portuguese and other Europeans went to India and Asia was due to economic reasons. They wanted the exotic goods from those regions.
note: ottoman and Russian are extensions of European colonization. So their expansion would also need be stopped and if no Western European involvement then they be the colonizers.
therefore due to absent thread owner as as many have said this thread is either ASB or can only be accomplished due to catastrophic events in Europe.
the reason the Portuguese and other Europeans went to India and Asia was due to economic reasons. They wanted the exotic goods from those regions.
note: ottoman and Russian are extensions of European colonization. So their expansion would also need be stopped and if no Western European involvement then they be the colonizers.
Lusitania
Donor
Yes they did but several posters asked for clarification and there been no response. In prior threads of this nature where the author never responds it gets frustrating. So if someone creates a thread and posters ask for clarification and no response I figure absent author.
In fairness, some catastrophic event that made Asia substantially poorer would remove the incentive for much of the early colonization and if Asian countries recovered by becoming highly militaristic and expansionist that would make it difficult for Europeans to take much of Asia.
Lusitania
Donor
Yes but is trade posts like Diu, Daman, Goa and Macao colonization or they simply trading posts?
If there was a pod of any time after 1200 you could use a combo of mongal/black death wank as the last possible chance to do a European screw but with 1400 being the limit I don't think you can do it.
I think the 1200s was also the last time that asia was on par with europe and by the 1400s the Europeans were starting to pull away as the high middle ages and renaissance were if full swing and the tech gap snow ball only got worse with time.
I think the 1200s was also the last time that asia was on par with europe and by the 1400s the Europeans were starting to pull away as the high middle ages and renaissance were if full swing and the tech gap snow ball only got worse with time.
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It has been less than 24 hours since they posted - I imagine the OP posted, left to do normal people things like a day job or taking care of kids, or sleeping, and will check back soon-ish. I know I often post before I start my day job, and, in case of no breaks, only check back ten or so hours later... And then go to sleep, and check the next morning, etc.
EDIT: And on topic, a divided Russia and/or a less divided China would probably work. Also note how Japan never really got colonized, so maybe an extreme isolationism (trade limited to one port) would also work?