WI: Charles IX of France and Elisabeth of Austria have a surviving son

[HortenseMancini]

What would be the implications, for France, Europe, and the world as a whole, if the OTL Marie-Elisabeth of Valois (1573 - 1578), only child of Charles IX of France and Elisabeth of Austria, was a son who survived early childhood? How would the French react to Elisabeth of Austria as regent if Charles IX dies as OTL? How involved would Charles IX's brothers be in such a regency? And of course, if Catherine de'Medicis dies as OTL then she'll be around for another fourteen years...

 

[dragonstoned]

What would be the implications, for France, Europe, and the world as a whole, if the OTL Marie-Elisabeth of Valois (1573 - 1578), only child of Charles IX of France and Elisabeth of Austria, was a son who survived early childhood? How would the French react to Elisabeth of Austria as regent if Charles IX dies as OTL? How involved would Charles IX's brothers be in such a regency? And of course, if Catherine de'Medicis dies as OTL then she'll be around for another fourteen years...

I think that a Austrian, probably pro-Habsburg, regent won't sit too well with the French. And her youth might cause her to be bypassed in favour of someone like Catherine de Medici or Henry, Duke of Orléans who is next in line for the throne after his infant nephew.

Elisabeth doesn't seem to shown much interest in politics during her short tenure as queen, dedicating herself to religion and charity instead. But she was only sixteen at the time of her marriage and twenty when she was widowed, so I'm not sure.

 

[HortenseMancini]

I think that a Austrian, probably pro-Habsburg, regent won't sit too well with the French. And her youth might cause her to be bypassed in favour of someone like Catherine de Medici or Henry, Duke of Orléans who is next in line for the throne after his infant nephew.

Elisabeth doesn't seem to shown much interest in politics during her short tenure as queen, dedicating herself to religion and charity instead. But she was only sixteen at the time of her marriage and twenty when she was widowed, so I'm not sure.

That's what I was thinking. She would definitely be packed off to Vienna. Catherine de'Medicis would likely claim the regency, with Charles Jr (Henri? François?) being declared of majority on her death in 1589.

 

[dragonstoned]

That's what I was thinking. She would definitely be packed off to Vienna. Catherine de'Medicis would likely claim the regency, with Charles Jr (Henri? François?) being declared of majority on her death in 1589.

Right. But I don't think Catherine will be able to dispose of Elisabeth so easily and without some major consequences. She will have the backing of her Habsburg relatives, so I predict a struggle for regency.

Her father Maximilian was still emperor at this point and will remain so until 1576. There is also her uncle/brother-in-law Philip in Spain, who is likely to be interested in swaying things to his favour.

 

[Vitruvius]

I think that a Austrian, probably pro-Habsburg, regent won't sit too well with the French. And her youth might cause her to be bypassed in favour of someone like Catherine de Medici or Henry, Duke of Orléans who is next in line for the throne after his infant nephew.

But would Henry abandon the Polish throne to come back to France just to contest the regency? I assume he stays in Poland and Catherine handles the regency.

 

[isabella]

I think that a Austrian, probably pro-Habsburg, regent won't sit too well with the French. And her youth might cause her to be bypassed in favour of someone like Catherine de Medici or Henry, Duke of Orléans who is next in line for the throne after his infant nephew.

Elisabeth doesn't seem to shown much interest in politics during her short tenure as queen, dedicating herself to religion and charity instead. But she was only sixteen at the time of her marriage and twenty when she was widowed, so I'm not sure.

No, that would be against any French tradition. If the merchant from Florence had obtained the regency for her son no way she will be allowed to keep it over her daughter-in-law, who is a princess of impeccable ascendency and has no reason for working against her family. In no way the mother of the King of France would be deprived of the regency or worse sent back at home... If Catherine de Medici only try to do that SHE will be removed from the power and sent a from court in disgrace... Pretty likely who the Duke of Angouleme as first prince of the blood (at least present in France as his older brother Henry will stay in his Kingdom of Poland)will have influence over the regency and surely the leaders of the Catholic party would be listened by Elisabeth, who will try to support Catholicism without bloodshed at least for what is possible...

 

[dragonstoned]

But would Henry abandon the Polish throne to come back to France just to contest the regency? I assume he stays in Poland and Catherine handles the regency.

I think so as well, but he remains heir until his nephew Henri III/Charles X/François III, is old enough to marry and produce children. If this male version of Marie Élisabeth still dies in infancy as she did, Henry will succeed.

As to Catherine, I think she might end up regent, but not without much resistance from Austrian and Spanish Habsburgs, who would support Elisabeth.

 

[alexmilman]

I think that a Austrian, probably pro-Habsburg, regent won't sit too well with the French. And her youth might cause her to be bypassed in favour of someone like Catherine de Medici or Henry, Duke of Orléans who is next in line for the throne after his infant nephew.

Elisabeth doesn't seem to shown much interest in politics during her short tenure as queen, dedicating herself to religion and charity instead. But she was only sixteen at the time of her marriage and twenty when she was widowed, so I'm not sure.

Personalities and character's specifics aside (and the fact that Catherine Medici was around), France had a Hapsburg regent (Spanish branch) from 14 May 1643 till 7 September 1651 while being at war with Austrian Hapsburg branch until 1648 and Spanish branch well beyond that time frame (until 1659). Her government was not popular by the reasons that had nothing to do with her being Hapsburg.

During period under discussion France was not even at war with the Hapsburgs and at least the Spanish Hapsburg had been supporting the French Catholics during the ongoing Wars of Religion. So why exactly a Hapsburg regent would be at that time unpopular among the Catholic majority in France?

Of course, Henry, if he returned from the PLC, or Francis, Duke of Anjou would be valid competitors if Charles is not making any explicit arrangements. In OTL Gaston of Orleans did not become a regent.

 

[isabella]

Personalities and character's specifics aside (and the fact that Catherine Medici was around), France had a Hapsburg regent (Spanish branch) from 14 May 1643 till 7 September 1651 while being at war with Austrian Hapsburg branch until 1648 and Spanish branch well beyond that time frame (until 1659). Her government was not popular by the reasons that had nothing to do with her being Hapsburg.

During period under discussion France was not even at war with the Hapsburgs and at least the Spanish Hapsburg had been supporting the French Catholics during the ongoing Wars of Religion. So why exactly a Hapsburg regent would be at that time unpopular among the Catholic majority in France?

Of course, Henry, if he returned from the PLC, or Francis, Duke of Anjou would be valid competitors if Charles is not making any explicit arrangements. In OTL Gaston of Orleans did not become a regent.

Pretty unlikely who Anjou or Orleans would be serious competition to Elisabeth. In OTL not only Gaston do not became regent over Anne but Louis XIII‘s last dispositions who established a powerful council of regency to share the power with his widow were ignored. Clementia of Hungary, whose son was unborn at the death of his father and lived only few days was the only living mother of a minor King to not be regent and the only one to lose the regency was Charlotte of Savoy, replaced in that role by her own daughter Anne (so the elder sister of the minor King)

 

[dragonstoned]

Personalities and character's specifics aside (and the fact that Catherine Medici was around), France had a Hapsburg regent (Spanish branch) from 14 May 1643 till 7 September 1651 while being at war with Austrian Hapsburg branch until 1648 and Spanish branch well beyond that time frame (until 1659). Her government was not popular by the reasons that had nothing to do with her being Hapsburg.

During period under discussion France was not even at war with the Hapsburgs and at least the Spanish Hapsburg had been supporting the French Catholics during the ongoing Wars of Religion. So why exactly a Hapsburg regent would be at that time unpopular among the Catholic majority in France?

Of course, Henry, if he returned from the PLC, or Francis, Duke of Anjou would be valid competitors if Charles is not making any explicit arrangements. In OTL Gaston of Orleans did not become a regent.

She will count with supporters among French nobility, as well as oppositers. Her youth, inexperience and apparent lack of political acumen, will count against her and in favour of Catherine or any other competitor. Though she also has a lot counting in her favour.

And let's not forget that the new king, whatever his name is, is an infant of barely a year old upon his father's death. So we are looking at 14+ years of regency. Though at this point the Huguenots are a greater threat to the French than the Habsburgs.

I predict Elisabeth will assume regency if Catherine steps down. I doubt Francis of Anjou would even be considered.

 

[Vitruvius]

The analogy to Anne is tricky though. The main concern there was repeating the hated Regency of Marie de Medici when Concini was seen to take advantage of a weak Queen. Hence Louis XIII's will dictating a council. Anne was able to outmaneuver everyone thanks in part to the counsel of Mazarin and have the Parlement quash the restrictions on the Regency in the will.

So I think Elisabeth would need similar political acumen to gain power as Regent.

 

[isabella]

Well by right the regency belong to Elisabeth and considering how much she was horrified by the massacre of Saint Barthélemy, for which she likely blamed Catherine, I can not see her leaving the regency to her mother-in-law... So Elisabeth will be regent, the Catholic party will take power behind her AND we do not know who will take effective control of France’s government BUT almost surely the rule of the hated Florentine merchant will be over...

 

[dragonstoned]

The analogy to Anne is tricky though. The main concern there was repeating the hated Regency of Marie de Medici when Concini was seen to take advantage of a weak Queen. Hence Louis XIII's will dictating a council. Anne was able to outmaneuver everyone thanks in part to the counsel of Mazarin and have the Parlement quash the restrictions on the Regency in the will.

So I think Elisabeth would need similar political acumen to gain power as Regent.

Precisely my point. But Elisabeth seems in lack similar knowledge/understanding of politics and even of powerful allies at court. Her tenure as queen counted with little to almost no participation in political life.

If Wikipedia can be trusted, the French courtly ways shocked her so much Charles IX had to shield her from it and Catherine made sure she was kept from affairs of state. She seems in lack of experience here, she'll need allies.

 

[alexmilman]

Precisely my point. But Elisabeth seems in lack similar knowledge/understanding of politics and even of powerful allies at court. Her tenure as queen counted with little to almost no participation in political life.

If Wikipedia can be trusted, the French courtly ways shocked her so much Charles IX had to shield her from it and Catherine made sure she was kept from affairs of state. She seems in lack of experience here, she'll need allies.

Everybody needed allies at these times. As far as experience is involved, neither Maria Medici nor Anne of Austria had too much of a governing experience by the time they became regents. The issue is not how competent Elizabeth would be as a regent but if it would became a regent. Surely, she could find the allies among the Catholic party, which did not like Catherine too much and which was backed by the strongest monarch in Europe.

How reliable and competent these people would be as the backers is another issue but during the reign of Francis II uncles of his wife became extremely powerful pretty much pushing Catherine aside. The younger generation of the Guises was there, alive, kicking and being extremely popular and their support of a Hapsburg regent would be logical politically, religiously and even financially: in OTL Phillip II was supporting Henry de Guise with considerable amounts of money. (just as an option)

 

[Johannes Parisiensis]

What about Elizabeth as a puppet regent, used by pro-Catholic or pro-Catherine elements of the court? And will Henri of Navarre stays Protestant? Lastly, with the throne of France firmly in the hands of a son of Charles IX, will Henri stays in Poland and establish a branch there or will he attempt to go bach in France?

 

[isabella]

Everybody needed allies at these times. As far as experience is involved, neither Maria Concini nor Anne of Austria had too much of a governing experience by the time they became regents. The issue is not how competent a Elizabeth would be as a regent but if it would became a regent. Surely, she could find the allies among the Catholic party, which did not like Catherine too much and which was backed by the strongest monarch in Europe.

How reliable and competent these people would be as the backers is another issue but during the reign of Francis II uncles of his wife became extremely powerful pretty much pushing Catherine aside. The younger generation of the Guises was there, alive, kicking and being extremely popular and their support of a Hapsburg regent would be logical politically, religiously and even financially: in OTL Phillip II was supporting Henry de Guise with considerable amounts of money. (just as an option)

Well Francis II was old enough to rule in his own right without any regent so is pretty natural who Catherine had no power under his reign... And Elisabeth had all the precedents on her side in claiming the regency and surely little love for Catherine...

What about Elizabeth as a puppet regent, used by pro-Catholic or pro-Catherine elements of the court? And will Henri of Navarre stays Protestant? Lastly, with the throne of France firmly in the hands of a son of Charles IX, will Henri stays in Poland and establish a branch there or will he attempt to go bach in France?

Well Elisabeth ending as an almost puppet regent in the hands of the Catholic party is pretty likely, but she will try to prevent a full blown civil war and too much bloodshed....
Henri will stay in Poland, he has no reason to leave his reign and return in France while his nephew live

 

[kasumigenx]

Well Francis II was old enough to rule in his own right without any regent so is pretty natural who Catherine had no power under his reign... And Elisabeth had all the precedents on her side in claiming the regency and surely little love for Catherine...


Well Elisabeth ending as an almost puppet regent in the hands of the Catholic party is pretty likely, but she will try to prevent a full blown civil war and too much bloodshed....
Henri will stay in Poland, he has no reason to leave his reign and return in France while his nephew live

Perhaps Francis might marry Anna Vasa.

 

[Kynan]

Henri will probably marry Anna Jaigellon but they'll probably not have any children and I could see him pushing for her to abdicate and annul the marriage in order to have a child to secure his line in Poland.

 

[Johannes Parisiensis]

Henri will probably marry Anna Jaigellon but they'll probably not have any children and I could see him pushing for her to abdicate and annul the marriage in order to have a child to secure his line in Poland.

Why woudl they not have children?

 

[HortenseMancini]

Why woudl they not have children?

OTL neither Henri or Anna had any children, legitimate or otherwise.