I know we have gone over it multiple times, but let us make a compendum of it on this thread so it can be used at a later date. Argue against or for the idea, but give me lots of Facts. I know CalBear and some others are very proficient in this. 
Why Operation Sealion could not have been performed successfullly by the Third Reich
- Thread starter Communist Wizard
- Start date
MrP
Banned
I know we have gone over it multiple times, but let us make a compendum of it on this thread so it can be used at a later date. Argue against or for the idea, but give me lots of Facts. I know CalBear and some others are very proficient in this.
Ian's got a detailed GAH! about it on the upper levels of ah.com - above even the discussion fora, in fact.
They exist... there a bitch to get into, though. I forget how I managed to do it last, but as of two months ago they were still there.
Everything from US government documents detailing why nuclear weapons don't actually exist to secret files on who actually shot JFK.
Bavarian Raven
Banned
i wouldn't say it was impossible (nothing is impossible), just improbably during the time frame of the second world war... now had germany won and had time (for several years) to build up their forces, then and only then MIGHT they have had a chance. period.
My brother and I once had a long discussion about if there was any chance for Sealion to work given the existing circumstances. It required a lot of POD's to do this and even then...
1) HITLER HAD TO WANT IT - In OTL he waffled badly about Sealion. He would have needed to force the issue for it to have any chance of succeeding.
2) THE RAF HAD TO BE DEFEATED - Needless to say the failure to do this doomed Sealion from the start. And even then any fighters would make an airborne landing hazardous at best. Realize you're going to lose a _lot_ of transports!
3) REALIZE THIS ISN'T A RIVER CROSSING - Too many people considered Sealion to be nothing more than that. The English Channel has some of the worst weather in the world, treating it lightly is a recipe for disaster! I understand another problem was a lack of suitable beaches for landing. Having so few choices aids the defender.
4) GET THE NECESSARY BARGES TOGETHER QUICKLY - One of the biggest problems, not enough to begin with and no time/place to get them ready. I read somewhere that stripping that many barges for Sealion would have hurt production and the economy. And many of them were not suited for the Channel in the first place. Perhaps a number of large merchant vessels run aground would have made more sense for the initial crossing.
5) KEEP THE ROYAL ARMY FROM ESCAPING DUNKIRK - These men, even though badly armed, would have been a major problem during Sealion. Their absence would mean mostly facing Home Guard and Territorial Units which would have been slightly easier.
6) DO SOMETHING TO KEEP THE ROYAL NAVY AWAY FROM THE INVASION FLEET - I consider this to be the biggest factor in the failure of Sealion. Churchill was fully prepared to sacrifice the RN if necessary to destroy the German's in the Channel. A more vicious Dunkirk would also result in the destruction of more RN ships, but quite frankly the Luftwaffe was never very good at this. If the Kreigsmarine had its own airforce trained in anti-shipping operations this would have helped but probably not enough. And with Engima the chance of success drops to nil.
Hope this helps!
1) HITLER HAD TO WANT IT - In OTL he waffled badly about Sealion. He would have needed to force the issue for it to have any chance of succeeding.
2) THE RAF HAD TO BE DEFEATED - Needless to say the failure to do this doomed Sealion from the start. And even then any fighters would make an airborne landing hazardous at best. Realize you're going to lose a _lot_ of transports!
3) REALIZE THIS ISN'T A RIVER CROSSING - Too many people considered Sealion to be nothing more than that. The English Channel has some of the worst weather in the world, treating it lightly is a recipe for disaster! I understand another problem was a lack of suitable beaches for landing. Having so few choices aids the defender.
4) GET THE NECESSARY BARGES TOGETHER QUICKLY - One of the biggest problems, not enough to begin with and no time/place to get them ready. I read somewhere that stripping that many barges for Sealion would have hurt production and the economy. And many of them were not suited for the Channel in the first place. Perhaps a number of large merchant vessels run aground would have made more sense for the initial crossing.
5) KEEP THE ROYAL ARMY FROM ESCAPING DUNKIRK - These men, even though badly armed, would have been a major problem during Sealion. Their absence would mean mostly facing Home Guard and Territorial Units which would have been slightly easier.
6) DO SOMETHING TO KEEP THE ROYAL NAVY AWAY FROM THE INVASION FLEET - I consider this to be the biggest factor in the failure of Sealion. Churchill was fully prepared to sacrifice the RN if necessary to destroy the German's in the Channel. A more vicious Dunkirk would also result in the destruction of more RN ships, but quite frankly the Luftwaffe was never very good at this. If the Kreigsmarine had its own airforce trained in anti-shipping operations this would have helped but probably not enough. And with Engima the chance of success drops to nil.
Hope this helps!
Point 5a) Realise a lot of wasted effort when you find out there is no such thing as the Royal Army
Germans at Dunkirk: "Excuse me, we're looking for the Royal Army"
British: "Sorry mate, never heard of it, we're the British Army"
Germans: "Sorry to have detained you, we'll let you get back to getting on your ships"
Germans at Dunkirk: "Excuse me, we're looking for the Royal Army"
British: "Sorry mate, never heard of it, we're the British Army"
Germans: "Sorry to have detained you, we'll let you get back to getting on your ships"
My brother and I once had a long discussion about if there was any chance for Sealion to work given the existing circumstances. It required a lot of POD's to do this and even then...
1) HITLER HAD TO WANT IT - In OTL he waffled badly about Sealion. He would have needed to force the issue for it to have any chance of succeeding.
2) THE RAF HAD TO BE DEFEATED - Needless to say the failure to do this doomed Sealion from the start. And even then any fighters would make an airborne landing hazardous at best. Realize you're going to lose a _lot_ of transports!
3) REALIZE THIS ISN'T A RIVER CROSSING - Too many people considered Sealion to be nothing more than that. The English Channel has some of the worst weather in the world, treating it lightly is a recipe for disaster! I understand another problem was a lack of suitable beaches for landing. Having so few choices aids the defender.
4) GET THE NECESSARY BARGES TOGETHER QUICKLY - One of the biggest problems, not enough to begin with and no time/place to get them ready. I read somewhere that stripping that many barges for Sealion would have hurt production and the economy. And many of them were not suited for the Channel in the first place. Perhaps a number of large merchant vessels run aground would have made more sense for the initial crossing.
5) KEEP THE ROYAL ARMY FROM ESCAPING DUNKIRK - These men, even though badly armed, would have been a major problem during Sealion. Their absence would mean mostly facing Home Guard and Territorial Units which would have been slightly easier.
6) DO SOMETHING TO KEEP THE ROYAL NAVY AWAY FROM THE INVASION FLEET - I consider this to be the biggest factor in the failure of Sealion. Churchill was fully prepared to sacrifice the RN if necessary to destroy the German's in the Channel. A more vicious Dunkirk would also result in the destruction of more RN ships, but quite frankly the Luftwaffe was never very good at this. If the Kreigsmarine had its own airforce trained in anti-shipping operations this would have helped but probably not enough. And with Engima the chance of success drops to nil.
Hope this helps!
Grey Wolf
Donor
You only have to quote Halder (unfortunately my memory only lets me paraphrase him) saying that he wasn't impressed that the invasion fleet would be crossing the Channel at half the speed that Julius Caesar had managed two thousand years before
...it becomes clear something is wrong !
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
...it becomes clear something is wrong !
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Everything I've read says that most effort put into Sealion was half-hearted at best. A lot of the lower-level personnel seemed to grasp the futility of it and just waited until interest died and Hitler's attention turned east.
bard32
Banned
I know we have gone over it multiple times, but let us make a compendum of it on this thread so it can be used at a later date. Argue against or for the idea, but give me lots of Facts. I know CalBear and some others are very proficient in this.
Fact, Operation Sealion was to have complete air superiority. It didn't.
Fact, the Germans were to have barges for the invasion but they weren't available in time.
Fact, the Germans didn't have competent leadership.
I think you would need Germany to trounce the Soviet Union, and to have the America First nimrods running the USA. Then you might get a situation where the UK is left out on its own, possibly facing German Nuclear Attack in 1948 or something.
The whole scenario requires that Germany actually has enough time to fight the UK on her own while doing ever more damage to the country. If Germany starts nuking the UK and the Kriegsmarine is massively enlarged, that would be plausible.
Of course, this means that the Soviets have to be either KOed or forced into the Urals and Germany has be left alone from the United States even as its nuking the UK.
This is perhaps not ASB but its close. The UK might be conquerable if Germany is throwing out this kind of damage against them.
The whole scenario requires that Germany actually has enough time to fight the UK on her own while doing ever more damage to the country. If Germany starts nuking the UK and the Kriegsmarine is massively enlarged, that would be plausible.
Of course, this means that the Soviets have to be either KOed or forced into the Urals and Germany has be left alone from the United States even as its nuking the UK.
This is perhaps not ASB but its close. The UK might be conquerable if Germany is throwing out this kind of damage against them.
Seelowe -as in the plan propsed in OTL- is a several million to one chance of sucess. We've got the usual factors of the RAF, RN, Rhein barges... but additionally there's one other big objection:
The poms will try their best to trash any major ports before the Germans take them. Hence troops, heavy weapons (tanks, artillary, etc.), munitions, fuel and supplies will have to be landed over the beachhead and via minor ports... unlike the aliies in Normandy during 1944, the Germans' naval arm aren't exactly suited for this. Hence the krauts can't deliver sufficient resources to even consider launching a Blitzkrieg. hence the battles will be rather more favourable to the Brits.
Wonder if esl will pop back up? The mere mention of Seelowe is usually enough to get him gibbering about how an 88mm FLaK crudely strapped to the deck of Rhein Barge is somehow a mortal threat to the RN or how a supperior German force of Destroyers running at the sight of British minesweepers somehow constitutes a defeat to the Royal Navy.
The poms will try their best to trash any major ports before the Germans take them. Hence troops, heavy weapons (tanks, artillary, etc.), munitions, fuel and supplies will have to be landed over the beachhead and via minor ports... unlike the aliies in Normandy during 1944, the Germans' naval arm aren't exactly suited for this. Hence the krauts can't deliver sufficient resources to even consider launching a Blitzkrieg. hence the battles will be rather more favourable to the Brits.
Wonder if esl will pop back up? The mere mention of Seelowe is usually enough to get him gibbering about how an 88mm FLaK crudely strapped to the deck of Rhein Barge is somehow a mortal threat to the RN or how a supperior German force of Destroyers running at the sight of British minesweepers somehow constitutes a defeat to the Royal Navy.
MrP
Banned
I've not seen esl in ages, sadly. I think he might've got a bit narked at the board's widespread (and reasonable) dismissal of Sealion. Nice chap if a bit monomaniacal.