OTL the USSR was in a state of pretty much complete collapse by the summer of 1991. All the republics had declared "sovereignty", the Baltic States were out the door, and nobody was paying much attention to the central government in Moscow any more.
As we all know, Gorbachev made one desperate last-ditch effort to save something from the wreckage: a treaty of union, which would join some of the republics in a loose confederation. The New Union Treaty would create a "Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics" which would be unique in the world -- a supernational confederation of sovereign states. The member states would be full nations, with seats in the UN and complete control over internal affairs, but there would be one economic space, a common currency and a unified defense force. In theory, it would be something like today's EU.
In practice, it was almost impossible. The republics were reluctant, seeing little benefit from watering down their new sovereignty. Russia, in particular, was restive -- Boris Yeltsin was already veering towards economic liberalism and Russian nationalism, and he saw no point in keeping a decrepit Soviet center looking over his shoulder. And Ukraine didn't even join the Treaty, which made it almost certain of failure. Just to get Russia, Belorussia and the Asian republics to agree, the treaty language had to be watered down and weasel-worded to the point where it would have been almost impossible to administer.
In any event, it was never tried. The USSR had become a man dying of sickness to whom medicine was poison. Kremlin hardliners found the treaty unacceptable; the day before it was to be signed, they staged a coup. The coup lasted only a few days, but it completely discredited Gorbachev and caused the republics to lose what little interest they had. The USSR staggered on for four more months, formally surviving until December 1991, but it had effectively ceased to exist within a week or two after the August coup.
So, POD: make the New Union Treaty happen.
I think this needs two things. One, Gorbachev has to move faster. The USSR decayed very fast -- almost explosively. OTL the first draft of the treaty was submitted to the Supreme Soviet in November 1990, but it was unacceptable; it was really just a weakened Soviet Union, and didn't acknowledge full sovereignty in the republics. Precious weeks were lost debating it, and an acceptable draft wasn't produced until March.
So, let's say that TTL, Gorbachev forces a more liberal draft through by the end of 1990. That's a stretch, because Gorbachev wasn't convinced of the confederal arrangement until far into 1991 -- he saw it as just a way station on the road to complete breakup. But let's say he has a glimpse of the future, and decides that a crust of bread is better than no loaf at
all.
Two, Ukraine has to be brought on board. I'm going to handwave that. [handwave] Kravchuk was a strange dude, and Ukrainian internal politics were pretty weird at this time (not that they're what you'd call straightforward today), so let's just say it happens.
So with a stretch and a handwave and a furious bound forwards, we have a Union Treaty presented to the republics in January and approved by May.
Ta daa! The Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics is born. It's a supernational federation of nine sovereign states: the old Soviet Union minus the Baltic States, Moldova, Armenia and Georgia. It has a common currency -- still the ruble -- and no internal barriers to trade. The individual states have their own armies, but there's also a USSR military (which theoretically controls the strategic nuclear force, though in practice I think this will be firmly under Russia).
There's a Supreme Court which sits in Moscow. In theory there is a common foreign policy; in practice, not so much.
It's rickety as hell, and doesn't work very well. But I could see this surviving in a metastable sort of way for a few years, until economic crises and irresistable nationalism tore it apart.
Thoughts?
Doug M.
As we all know, Gorbachev made one desperate last-ditch effort to save something from the wreckage: a treaty of union, which would join some of the republics in a loose confederation. The New Union Treaty would create a "Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics" which would be unique in the world -- a supernational confederation of sovereign states. The member states would be full nations, with seats in the UN and complete control over internal affairs, but there would be one economic space, a common currency and a unified defense force. In theory, it would be something like today's EU.
In practice, it was almost impossible. The republics were reluctant, seeing little benefit from watering down their new sovereignty. Russia, in particular, was restive -- Boris Yeltsin was already veering towards economic liberalism and Russian nationalism, and he saw no point in keeping a decrepit Soviet center looking over his shoulder. And Ukraine didn't even join the Treaty, which made it almost certain of failure. Just to get Russia, Belorussia and the Asian republics to agree, the treaty language had to be watered down and weasel-worded to the point where it would have been almost impossible to administer.
In any event, it was never tried. The USSR had become a man dying of sickness to whom medicine was poison. Kremlin hardliners found the treaty unacceptable; the day before it was to be signed, they staged a coup. The coup lasted only a few days, but it completely discredited Gorbachev and caused the republics to lose what little interest they had. The USSR staggered on for four more months, formally surviving until December 1991, but it had effectively ceased to exist within a week or two after the August coup.
So, POD: make the New Union Treaty happen.
I think this needs two things. One, Gorbachev has to move faster. The USSR decayed very fast -- almost explosively. OTL the first draft of the treaty was submitted to the Supreme Soviet in November 1990, but it was unacceptable; it was really just a weakened Soviet Union, and didn't acknowledge full sovereignty in the republics. Precious weeks were lost debating it, and an acceptable draft wasn't produced until March.
So, let's say that TTL, Gorbachev forces a more liberal draft through by the end of 1990. That's a stretch, because Gorbachev wasn't convinced of the confederal arrangement until far into 1991 -- he saw it as just a way station on the road to complete breakup. But let's say he has a glimpse of the future, and decides that a crust of bread is better than no loaf at
all.
Two, Ukraine has to be brought on board. I'm going to handwave that. [handwave] Kravchuk was a strange dude, and Ukrainian internal politics were pretty weird at this time (not that they're what you'd call straightforward today), so let's just say it happens.
So with a stretch and a handwave and a furious bound forwards, we have a Union Treaty presented to the republics in January and approved by May.
Ta daa! The Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics is born. It's a supernational federation of nine sovereign states: the old Soviet Union minus the Baltic States, Moldova, Armenia and Georgia. It has a common currency -- still the ruble -- and no internal barriers to trade. The individual states have their own armies, but there's also a USSR military (which theoretically controls the strategic nuclear force, though in practice I think this will be firmly under Russia).
There's a Supreme Court which sits in Moscow. In theory there is a common foreign policy; in practice, not so much.
It's rickety as hell, and doesn't work very well. But I could see this surviving in a metastable sort of way for a few years, until economic crises and irresistable nationalism tore it apart.
Thoughts?
Doug M.
