Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy
Banned
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provisional_IRA_campaign_1969%E2%80%931997#Early_1990s said:
WI those rounds had hit No 10 and killed John Major?
Mortar shells over Downing St
- Thread starter Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy
- Start date
WI those rounds had hit No 10 and killed John Major?
MAJOR crackdown on the IRA with some more infantry divisions sent to Ulster being quite possible.
Massive public reaction. Think something along the lines of what happened after the death of Mountbatten, but much more widespread. Also, there is a much wider appreciation of what terrorists can do.
You mention this happening during a cabinet meeting. Who else is killed or injured? If it gets Major, I can see most of the cabinet dead or injured/incapacitated. Who takes over? This probably precipitates a leadership crisis. Maybe Labour try's for a vote of No confidence in the government, on the grounds that it failed to even protect itself.
Also, this is the second assasination of a British PM ever. Also, the last in over 150 years, I think. So the shock will be immense. Probably much more than the US suffers when a president is killed. Maybe something equivilent to when JFK was killed. (Every Briton remembers where he or she was at the time.)
You mention this happening during a cabinet meeting. Who else is killed or injured? If it gets Major, I can see most of the cabinet dead or injured/incapacitated. Who takes over? This probably precipitates a leadership crisis. Maybe Labour try's for a vote of No confidence in the government, on the grounds that it failed to even protect itself.
Also, this is the second assasination of a British PM ever. Also, the last in over 150 years, I think. So the shock will be immense. Probably much more than the US suffers when a president is killed. Maybe something equivilent to when JFK was killed. (Every Briton remembers where he or she was at the time.)
I know this is ASB, but would the UK be open to candidates from Commonwealth countries to fill in the spot? If so, then Canada would have Kim Campbell or Jean Charest waiting, or even the "Young Turks" John Herron, André Bachand, Scott Brison and Peter MacKay.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Campbell
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_Charest
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Herron_(New_Brunswick_politician)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/André_Bachand_(Progressive_Conservative_MP)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Brison
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_MacKay
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Campbell
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_Charest
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Herron_(New_Brunswick_politician)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/André_Bachand_(Progressive_Conservative_MP)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Brison
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_MacKay
I think that Thatcher would come back and would call and win an election. I think that at the following election- 1996- there would be a really clear rejection of Thatcherism.
IMO there was very little more the British could do against the IRA. British anti-terror laws were draconian well before 9/11 precisely to combat the IRA.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prevention_of_Terrorism_Acts
They had previously tried internment and realised it was counter-productive. IMO more infantry on the streets would have had no effect at all.
I have no sympathy whatsoever for the IRA but the British were already doing everything they could do against them.
What might have happened is that revulsion in the USA might have cut down the IRA's funding for a few years, but I doubt that would have had much effect either given the stockpiles they already had.
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MrP
Banned
I'd be rather amazed if Labour tried for a vote of no confidence. The standard political response in times of threat to the government is for all the parties to band together. If they didn't unite in defiance of the threat, they might seem to be making political capital out of a national disaster. The standard line for politicians at such times is, "Now is not the time for party politics." They might well exploit the security failures later, but not at the time.
MrP
Banned
Who becomes Prime Minister? Norman Lamont?
I can't tell whether you're more worried by the prospect of that particular man, or if it's a racial memory of some other Normans.
I've PM'd Kit to see if he knows who'll succeed in the interim.
That'd be political suicide for Labour, its akin to saying "Its your own fault your dead! No sympathy from me, oh no, not from me.....!!!!". You'd probably see a lot of public sympathy for Major and the other dead cabinet ministers. Actually I think this would help the Tories though.
After Thatcher, this really would help shed the Tories of the nasty party image. A major terrorist attack can do that. If whoever took over from Major called an election, it would be a case of another large Tory majority and less likelehood of a Labour win in 96/97.
I agree, it would be like Goldwater trying to blame the Democrats for Kennedy's death and making it a big issue for 1964. Even solid Republican areas might go Democrat after that.
Who becomes Prime Minister? Norman Lamont?
It depends whether all the Cabinet were present at the meeting in question. Let's say that the Home Secretary wasn't there. I would assume that he would then become PM as the most senior member of the government still alive. Unlike the US the Brits don't have a Prime Ministerial line of succession
You can't be specific without knowing who else would die in this scenario - if the cabinet room is struck then it's surely not just going to take out Major - a sort of reverse Hitler scenario - but others as well.
I don't see anyone being the obvious choice to succeed Major in 1991. When you look at the names in the cabinet at that time, they were all reasonably 'fresh' and had generally only served as mid-level or junior ministers during the Thatcher years; the really big figures - Hurd and Heseltine, who had previously challeneged Major for the leadership - would probably be ruled out in this scenario; Heseltine as too unpopular and divisive with the party and Hurd as too 'wet', certainly for a moment of crisis. It could concievably have been just about anyone. If Major just dropped down dead then I'd probably say Heseltine, but in this sort of scenario where people would be more uncertain and desiring of a 'unity' figure, he's probably ruled out.
The Tories still had a solid majority at this point, even factoring in cabinet loses (which would probably have been filled with new Tory members pretty quickly through by-elections anyway.) - we're talking about the 1987 parliament, not post-1992. I don't really see any need for an immediate general election at all, nor a 'national' government. We've had substantial terrorist atrocities before and on the whole we've just sailed on as normal for the most part, electorally/politically speaking.
There would be no 'need' for a General election however the right wing tory who would undoubtedly take office would likely call one as early as they could get away with it.
I agree. And they would have constitutional neccessity to back them up - an election would have to come before June 1992, and parliaments traditionally do run for four years, on the whole, unless the PM wants to string things out.
whatisinaname
Donor
What about Thatcher as a caretaker prime minister in that short term?
After all Thatcher has the experience etc?
Or is that idea too unlikely?
After all Thatcher has the experience etc?
Or is that idea too unlikely?
No way, IMO. The Tories aren't going to go back to Thatcher only a few months after expelling her from office, even in an emergency capacity. Thatcher is still a liability here and has all the problems that caused her to go in the first place. There's just too much baggage.
Also, there's no chance Thatcher would want to be a 'caretaker' anything. They only just managed to prise loose her grip of the doorframe of Number 10 when they chucked her out.