SeaLion - the poll

Does op. SeaLion have a realistic chance of succes ?

  • Total voters
    130

Magnum

It recently occured to me that no poll has been made in regard to Sealion. and so, in an effort to hear what the "Vox populi" has to say, here it goes (this is not an attempt to renew the debate, I'm just curious). Voters should bear in mind the following ideeas/argumets
PRO:
1. Speer 2.0 (Kriegsleiter)manages to organise the german industry, the new ressources beeing focused in a torpedo-bomber project
2. Luftwaffe had the ability to achieve total air superiority, enabeling safe air-transport and support
3. Spain, Vichy France and Italy could be brought in, possibly as a result of a big axis naval victory in the Med or a Oran-like incident
4. German troops where superior in numbers, training, tactics, weapons and leadership to those of the british
5. The germans could risk in the battle of Norway, where they would simply bleed the R.N. dry by U-Boat and airpower
6.Germany had beaten everyone up to that point, including the once mighty french
7. Germany had a strong paratrooper force, wich could have been even stronger
8. DUNKIRK COULD HAVE BEEN A MUCH BIGGER DISASTER


CONTRA
1. German political leadership was incompetent
2. THE ROYAL NAVY WAS HUGE
3. German landing barges where very vulnerable (enemy & weather)
4. the british played on their home ground
5. german troops where vulnerable to a counterattack by armour
6. german troops had to take some sort of a harbour in order to be able to sustain their invasion
7. The R.A.F. could simply withdraw to Scotland and then take part in the all-out counter-attack

So, the question is, does Sealion have realistic chance of succes (above 15%) ?
 

schrammy

i vote yes but not to actualy conquer britain but to get britain to sine a peace treaty favorable to both sides witch was what hitler wanted in the first place.

so yes to achieving a favorable peace no to total conquest.
 

Max Sinister

Banned
I'd be surprised if you'd find anyone here to answer that question positively... the PRO reasons are partly overstated (Speer made a lot of propaganda for himself, the Luftwaffe wasn't über-powerful), and some CONTRA reasons are missing (the Brits had deciphered the Enigma, and the Germans never found that out; the US could help Britain). So, I vote no.
 

Adam

Magnum

the ideeas came from about 3 or 4 timelines, including Chris' (it's the same name... what do u think the chances are I would come up with such a name)
And why do u call the guy an ASB ?
 

Adam

Magnum said:
the ideeas came from about 3 or 4 timelines, including Chris' (it's the same name... what do u think the chances are I would come up with such a name)
And why do u call the guy an ASB ?
Click to expand...

Because Chris said so himself, though you won't find that comment anywhere on this board.
 

zeitenschmiede

the question was not the royal marine but air supremacy. if the luftwaffe had gained air supremacy over south england during the battle for britain the invasion would have been a success because the invasion fleet would be protected by a mass number of planes -> no danger from royal navy.

i think it was churchhill who said in private that three or four more days of dogfights above south-englands RAF-bases and britain would have had to ask for an armistice or risk an invasion......that was on that day when göring stopped the battle for britain and went over to moral bombings (the blitz)
 

Iñaki

Aah! Sealionism, that terrible herexy:)

In fact I will vote yes althoug with doubts, first of all a lot of things has to be changed to make some kind of Sealion succesful (and the TL of Mr Bluenote about the success of Luftwaffe and the die of Goring is the clear example about how changes have to be implemented) but this could happen.
 

Panzerwhere?

I say yes. But it would depend on total air supremacy, and would be won by psychological reasons. I'm sure the British Army could put up a heck of a fight but would be battered by the Lufttwaffe. The Home Guard....are you kidding? Probably ends up with a peace signing after a couple of weeks with Germans free on the Continent to do what they want, ie crush Russia.
 
Rasputin

Rasputin

I've been of the opinion that Sealion was by no means impossible...there's nothing ASB about such a thing happening...but that it would be incredibly, mind-boggingly implausible, since it would require a sustained string of sheer luck that beggars credibility. If we're talking from a 'Panzers crush Dunkirk' scenario, then the ground battle would be a dead cert for a German victory. It's the matter of getting them over that would strain the boundaries of quantum physics.

So, not higher than 15%. I'd wager somewhere in the region ooooof...7%
 

Tyr

People say if Germany had made different preperations then yes...But Britain didn't exist in a void. We would move to counter any German preperations.

Also many seem to forget supply lines. They think the RN can be kept busy for a few hours and the landing forces can be sneaked over...Isn't going to happen. The Germans need naval supremacy. Which is just silly.
 
Electric Monk

Electric Monk

If by realistic you mean a ~10% of (IIRC) DMA's Ramsgate option succeeding that was never actually considered.

Otherwise not so much.
 

thejester

No. Under any realistic circumstances SEALION as concieved would 999 times out of 1000 failed totally and utterly within the first three days.
 

Smaug

If everything went right, Germany would have a foothold.... Than it would've turned into a ratflock. It would've been a sinkhole for German troops and assets. JMO
 

Earling

The concern is the number of people who seem to think if 10 divisions largely bereft of heavy equipment and supplies could if they were somehow teleported to Britain overrun the entire country.

The RAF cannot be destroyed.
The RN cannot be prevented from sallying against the paltry number of naval assets Germany can place in the channel.

As for homeguard=lol.. no one expects them to stand toe to toe with the Wehrmacht's finest but when those divisions are going to be outnumbered 3-5 to 1 by regulars and then what? 10-1 or more by adding these men its not really a problem. When those divisions are likely stuck on the beaches without armour or artillery beyond ground attacks by the luftwaffe it gets even worse.
 

Cockroach

the question was not the royal marine but air supremacy. if the luftwaffe had gained air supremacy over south england during the battle for britain the invasion would have been a success because the invasion fleet would be protected by a mass number of planes -> no danger from royal navy.
Click to expand...
Level bombers were ineffective vs manouvering warships. This just leaves Dive Bombers and the rather small number of Tropedo Bombers to stop the RN.
Now given those same Ju-87s are meant to be acting as the army's artillary...
Besides Dive Bombers are not that much of a threat against Battleships... and the RN has plenty of light vessels.

So it comes down to the standard result:
Destroyer wake+Rhein Barge=capsized Rhein Barge...
 

Magnum

If I wanted this discussion to last, like the previous one, for at least 5 pages, I would say that
1.more torpeo bombers
2.Norway becomes basically a trap for the RN
3.With Spain in the war and possible a major axis naval victory in the med, u could see the italian navy taking part in the operations, maybe even the Vichy french
4.etc (I'm in a hurry here)
So in conclusion, there are ways to protect the barges, u just have to be inventive.
However, I just want to see a poll result, so I'll leave the debate where it is.
 
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