The Turks fight the Syrians over the Kurds

WI Syria's support for the PKK in the early and middle '90s had lead to Turkey attacking it?

VoCSe said:

WI Syria's support for the PKK in the early and middle '90s had lead to Turkey attacking it?

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If you remember, they almost did in 1998. The new commander of the military, Hüseyin Kivrikoglu, deployed Turkish troops to the Syrian border and publicly announced that Syria and Turkey were in "a state of undeclared war" over Syria's support of the PKK and Apo Öcalan. I understand that the Israelis were also gearing up to hammer Syria around the same time in concert with the Turks.

In OTL, the Syrians kicked Öcalan and the PKK out. I can't imagine that Turkey would unilaterally invade without an ultimatum, and I also can't imagine that Syria would go to war to defend Öcalan and the PKK.

PMN1 said:

Turkey, Syria and Iraq have al had a history of supporting the other sides Kurds in retaliation for arguments over water - Turkey holds all the cards here, if it wanted to, it could make what is now Iraq blow away in the wind.

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Don't forget Iran, too. The Iranians have been some of the worst provocateurs.

Leo Caesius said:

If you remember, they almost did in 1998.

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That was in '98? I fought it was in the early and mid '90s. I don't really remember it, I was 13 and not too well informed about current affairs and post-WWII international relations.

So what would it take to get a war started? Maybe stronger Iranian support for Syria could convince them to stand firm. Would Iran be willing to give them any guarantees? If they attack Turkey this gets NATO involved.

VoCSe said:

So what would it take to get a war started? Maybe stronger Iranian support for Syria could convince them to stand firm. Would Iran be willing to give them any guarantees? If they attack Turkey this gets NATO involved.

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When it comes to the Kurds outside of Iran, the Iranians are only willing to support them to a point - they sold them up the river many times, most infamously in 1975 with the Algiers Accord. They basically view them as low-maintenance cat's paws and can easily get the Iraqi and Turkish Kurds to help them cow their own Kurds into submission (by isolating them). But Kurdistan and the Kurdish militant groups are a side-show as far as Iranian politicians - both before and after 1979 - are concerned, and I can't see them going so far as to endanger their own interests to start a war in Kurdistan.

Bump!

I'm resurrecting this hoping that Abdul will contribute.

I pretty much agree with what Leo said.

If some circumstance prevented Syria from caving, they would last a few days at most. Syria is not particularly defensible along the Turkish border and the Turkish military fully mobilized is about a quarter of the size of the population of Syria. If Turkey invaded, they would be content to destroy any PKK installations and force Syria to comply with demands. There would be no question of territorial adjustments.

Abdul Hadi Pasha said:

If Turkey invaded, they would be content to destroy any PKK installations and force Syria to comply with demands. There would be no question of territorial adjustments.

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Aside from forcing the Syrians to recognize Turkish ownership of the Hatay*, is there anything else in Syria that Turkey might want?


* = as I understand it, Turkish maps show it as belonging to Turkey, while Syrian maps still show it belonging to Syria.

Keenir said:

Aside from forcing the Syrians to recognize Turkish ownership of the Hatay*, is there anything else in Syria that Turkey might want?


* = as I understand it, Turkish maps show it as belonging to Turkey, while Syrian maps still show it belonging to Syria.

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No; Turkey abandoned all irridentist claims on all former Ottoman territory - I believe they even gave up on Mosul in exchange for a promised share of oil revenue, or somthing like that. Hatay was subject to a pleibicite, which Turkey won, and is recognized even by Austria as part of Turkey. I've heard that too about Syrian maps.

I can't think of anything Turkey would want from Syria other than friendship.