The Balkans in an Earlier CP Victory

There was a discussion a while back about an early CP victory in WWI. As is typical, it focussed primarily on the German gains against France and Russia, and Britain's general geopolitical position after the war, but I'm more curious about the Balkans.

If the Germans reach Paris in 1914, and victory is achieved in, say, early 1915, what will the Balkans look like? In OTL, Bulgaria didn't join the war until 1915, and neither did Italy, so I'm curious as to whether Bulgaria especially would be awarded any territory and whether the Italians would still have a crack at Albania. Also Romania, which joined the allies in 1916 - would they gain or lose any territory despite not being a combatant in the early stages of the war? I mean, Bulgaria had territorial ambitions against both Serbia and Romania. Could the Austro-German alliance have put any pressure on the Balkan nations to rearrange borders?

Austria may well want Bulgaria to get Macedonia for two reasons: 1)to further punish the Serbs; 2) to court favor with Bulgaria and gain influence in Sofia. Germany would be rather indifferent to what happened in the Balkans if peace is had in 1914. It was only later that German involvement and interest spread.

Even with the Germans in Paris though, Serbia still wouldn't be occupied yet though. Germany would have to shift forces to assist the Austrians before that could happen, so I think there would be time for Bulgaria to join in at the last minute and make a contribution (which collapses Serbia's defenses on a two front invasion).

Kome said:

Even with the Germans in Paris though, Serbia still wouldn't be occupied yet though. Germany would have to shift forces to assist the Austrians before that could happen, so I think there would be time for Bulgaria to join in at the last minute and make a contribution (which collapses Serbia's defenses on a two front invasion).

Click to expand...

That's a possibility, of course, and an interesting twist. Once Paris is taken, though, the Serbs may very well throw in the towel to pre-empt Bulgarian involvement, maybe in the hope that they retain some territorial integrity.

Franz Josef II said:

Austria may well want Bulgaria to get Macedonia for two reasons: 1)to further punish the Serbs; 2) to court favor with Bulgaria and gain influence in Sofia. Germany would be rather indifferent to what happened in the Balkans if peace is had in 1914. It was only later that German involvement and interest spread.

Click to expand...

Either way, I think it's reasonable to assume that Bulgaria will be getting a chunk of Serbian Macedonia.

Okay, so what about Greece and Romania, and Albania? Do these territories remain the same as they were before the war? And Montenegro for that matter.

Depending how badly Russia loses, Germany may demand Bessarabia for Romania (it was ruled by a branch of the Hohenzollerns after all).

Depends on how it happens. If say Bulgaria comes in early against Serbia then that Balkans front shuts down in 1914 without the embarrassment of A-H, potentially keeps Italy out of the war, helps the Ottomans if the Brits try Gallipoli, and probably keeps the Romanians out of the war. That would be a big game changer by shutting down that front in 1914.

In that case the Bulgarians get OTL war gains, but get to keep them. Then Serbia remains a weak puppet of A-H with an A-H appointed royal family. Romania maybe joins the CPs at the end and gets Bessarabia. The Ottomans get nothing in the Balkans. Greece probably stays out. So really the entire area remains CP friendly/dominated and an economic appendage of Germany, which A-H probably starts turning into. In a lot of ways it probably starts to be an economic resource mill for Germany like was set up in pre-WW2 by the Nazis. Italy then probably starts to get more pro-CP so it can get access and not be shut out. I expect Italy probably jumped in with the CPs if France started going down, right before victory, again like in 1940.

Monter said:

Depending how badly Russia loses, Germany may demand Bessarabia for Romania (it was ruled by a branch of the Hohenzollerns after all).

Click to expand...

In the last discussion on the subject, it was more or less assumed Russia wouldn't lose badly enough for a Brest-Livotsk type treaty. Poland and Lithuania are probably on the cards for Germany, but they'd be waving goodbye to Ukraine or the United Baltic Duchy (unless they make a grab for them at some other point in the future).

I'm more concerned with border adjustments between Romania and Bulgaria. As you say, Romania was ruled by the Hohenzollerns, but Bulgaria had some significant claims to Romanian territory dating back to the Balkan Wars didn't they? If not Russia, Romania couldn't really be compensated if they had to give up territory to Bulgaria.

wiking said:

Depends on how it happens. If say Bulgaria comes in early against Serbia then that Balkans front shuts down in 1914 without the embarrassment of A-H, potentially keeps Italy out of the war, helps the Ottomans if the Brits try Gallipoli, and probably keeps the Romanians out of the war. That would be a big game changer by shutting down that front in 1914.

In that case the Bulgarians get OTL war gains, but get to keep them. Then Serbia remains a weak puppet of A-H with an A-H appointed royal family. Romania maybe joins the CPs at the end and gets Bessarabia. The Ottomans get nothing in the Balkans. Greece probably stays out. So really the entire area remains CP friendly/dominated and an economic appendage of Germany, which A-H probably starts turning into. In a lot of ways it probably starts to be an economic resource mill for Germany like was set up in pre-WW2 by the Nazis. Italy then probably starts to get more pro-CP so it can get access and not be shut out. I expect Italy probably jumped in with the CPs if France started going down, right before victory, again like in 1940.

Click to expand...

I was hoping to have some input from you.

Is it really likely that Romania would jump in towards the end? If we're looking at Paris captured in 1914, the rest of the allies would probably sue for peace pretty quickly, including Russia; I have my doubts that Romania could occupy enough Russian territory before it all ends to really stake a decent claim.

As for Italy, would they still have ambitions against Albania, and in what ways would they achieve those ambitions? Obviously as an ally of Nazi Germany, they had free-reign in that area of the Balkans, but if Austria-Hungary is still a player, the game changes significantly.

With Paris taken and the French out-

The Bulgarians move immediately to cut up the Serbians. When the Germans asked for Bulgaria's help, that's the defeat of France was their stipulation. They latter that the French had been beaten up enough and joined in

Italy is out of luck and isn't getting anything out of this war, She'll have to wait for the Germans to go after the British if she wants any loot

Romania will join the CPs and grab Bessarabia. They will be saved by the Hohenzollern family ties

The players game will change with the circumstances. France out, and the Entente is doomed and everyone would know it. As in the Napoleonic Wars, the smaller powers will rally to the winners

Emperor-of-New-Zealand said:

I was hoping to have some input from you.

Is it really likely that Romania would jump in towards the end? If we're looking at Paris captured in 1914, the rest of the allies would probably sue for peace pretty quickly, including Russia; I have my doubts that Romania could occupy enough Russian territory before it all ends to really stake a decent claim.

As for Italy, would they still have ambitions against Albania, and in what ways would they achieve those ambitions? Obviously as an ally of Nazi Germany, they had free-reign in that area of the Balkans, but if Austria-Hungary is still a player, the game changes significantly.

Click to expand...

In regards to Greece and Romania, the traditional order of things was for a peace congress to be held among the combatants, with various petitioners lining outside the door to plead their case to the great powers.

I don't think Greece and Romania would have much reason to get involved in the congress though, or any reason for anyone to petition against them.

As for Albania, Albania is just fucked. By 1914 the country was already occupied by Italy, Greece, and Serbia, with an Islamic civil war going on in the non-occupied area. While the Prince William of Wied in exile was serving in the German army.

Most likely William II would insist on restoring William of Wied as Prince of Albania, and Greece will petition to annex Northern Epirus (which they might get since de facto occupation and Albania being kind of a failed state).

So we've got two competing views here;

1) Romania enters at the last minute, makes a grab for Bessarabia.

2) Romania stays out, lines up at the door at the end.

I'm more inclined as to the latter, as before I said I don't really see Romania being able to grab enough land in enough time from Russia to stake the claim. I'd be interested in more discussion on that though; what was the Romanian army like compared to the Russians? How quickly would word reach Russia's leadership that France had surrendered? That's really the window of opportunity for Romania; the time between France surrendering, Russia hearing about it, and then suing for peace as well.

The Albanian situation is very interesting. So, it's likely that Greece gets Northern Epirus like they always wanted, but what about the rest? The Prince of Wied reinstated, but that doesn't solve all of Albania's problems, and Austria was opposed to Italian meddling in their backyard (as far as I'm aware; also because it would close the Adriatic if Italy ever saw the need to). I can imagine Albania being divvied up between neighbouring states instead of being left alone, but the question remains; apart from Greece, which other neighbouring states would there be to take a slice? Serbia, certainly not. That leaves Montenegro, Italy, Bulgaria, and to some extent Austria-Hungary themselves.

Emperor-of-New-Zealand said:

I was hoping to have some input from you.

Is it really likely that Romania would jump in towards the end? If we're looking at Paris captured in 1914, the rest of the allies would probably sue for peace pretty quickly, including Russia; I have my doubts that Romania could occupy enough Russian territory before it all ends to really stake a decent claim.

As for Italy, would they still have ambitions against Albania, and in what ways would they achieve those ambitions? Obviously as an ally of Nazi Germany, they had free-reign in that area of the Balkans, but if Austria-Hungary is still a player, the game changes significantly.

Click to expand...

Romania would certainly try and grab something if they could get it on the cheap. It really comes down to the circumstances though. If Paris falls they will probably try and fight for a better position before talking terms and during that period Romania would try and jump in at low cost if they think they've got a shot at a cheap gain; if not they won't. But they will want to be on the good side of the victors. As it was they had the weak Russian 7th army opposing them on the Pruth river; this force was pushed into Galicia late in 1914 and frankly Romania should have been able to handle it with their OTL mobllized army. The problem is what is Russia's position in terms of armies? Romania could have to do some fighting, but a weak Russian reserve force would get rolled by the Romanians like the A-Hs were early in 1916 Romanian invasion.

Italy likely wouldn't be allowed a foothold in Albania if Serbia falls in 1914. Likely their gains if they came in would be against France (Corsica, Nice, Savoy, maybe Tunisia/trade rights).

wiking said:

Italy likely wouldn't be allowed a foothold in Albania if Serbia falls in 1914. Likely their gains if they came in would be against France (Corsica, Nice, Savoy, maybe Tunisia/trade rights).

Click to expand...

Hmm...how easily could Italy take Corsica of all places though? Is the RN not operating in the Med at this point? A ground campaign to conquer Nice and Savoy would seem doable since France would be focussing on the western front, of course.

Emperor-of-New-Zealand said:

Hmm...how easily could Italy take Corsica of all places though? Is the RN not operating in the Med at this point? A ground campaign to conquer Nice and Savoy would seem doable since France would be focussing on the western front, of course.

Click to expand...

Probably couldn't, but they could get it via treaty.

wiking said:

Probably couldn't, but they could get it via treaty.

Click to expand...

Maybe France would trade it for Tunisia instead. How important was Corsica to France? How important was it to Italy's irredentism?

Emperor-of-New-Zealand said:

Hmm...how easily could Italy take Corsica of all places though? Is the RN not operating in the Med at this point? A ground campaign to conquer Nice and Savoy would seem doable since France would be focussing on the western front, of course.

Click to expand...

The French were the responsible for the med, the Regia Marina can't beat the Marine Nationale though.

So here's what I'm thinking happens in this war:

I guess the POD would be a German success in the First Battle of the Marne, and they reach Paris not too long after. With France knocked out of the war, Bulgaria invades southern Serbia, and an opportunistic Romania has a crack at Bessarabia before Russia sues for peace. Italy jumps in at the very last minute and occupies Nice and Savoy. Britain comes to the table not long after.

The treaty is signed in 1915. Germany annexes the Longwy-Briey region of eastern France as well as Luxembourg, establishes client states over newly independent Poland (as well as annexing some territory) and Lithuania. They push for the rest of the Baltics, but do not succeed.

Austria-Hungary takes some border regions from Serbia, with Macedonia going to Bulgaria. The rest is made an Austrian client state along with Montenegro (I assume). Romania is granted Bessarabia. In the post-war negotiations, the Albanian situation is sorted out somewhat, with the Prince of Wied reinstated as the ruler of Albania, and Northern Epirus annexed by Greece.

The Ottomans take the oblasts of Kars and Batum from Russia, but aren't able to push for much more than that (Turkish clients in the Caucasus don't come to fruition).

Colonially, Germany agrees to evacuate Belgium and restore its neutrality in exchange for its colony in Kamerun and the Belgian Congo, maybe Togoland. I don't think the Brits would be willing to give up Tanganyika as it connects the Cape to Cairo. Sudwest Afrika was occupied by South Africa, so that's not going anywhere either. However, to compensate, Germany extracts colonies in Central Africa from France, creating Mittelafrika (although not as large as they wanted). Italy may or may not get Tunisia, maybe settles for the rights of Italian citizens in Tunisia, but there will be border adjustments between Libya and Algeria.

In the far east and Pacific, Germany still loses all its colonies. New Guinea is under Australian occupation, Samoa under New Zealander occupation, and the rest have been taken by the Japanese who under no circumstances will be giving them back. They do pay the Germans some token sum for these colonies, however.

How does that all sound?

Sounds reasonable

Emperor-of-New-Zealand said:

Colonially, Germany agrees to evacuate Belgium and restore its neutrality in exchange for its colony in Kamerun and the Belgian Congo, maybe Togoland. I don't think the Brits would be willing to give up Tanganyika as it connects the Cape to Cairo. Sudwest Afrika was occupied by South Africa, so that's not going anywhere either.

Click to expand...

In 1915 Tanganyika was still in German hands, as was most of Kamerun.

SWA fell to the South Africans in 1915, but didn't surrender till September, so it depends exactly when the peace is signed.