Will Kürlich Kerl
Banned
What happens if Michael the Brave was not assassinated by Giorgio Basta on 9 August 1601 and had managed to live for another forty years?
WI: Michael the Brave not assassinated
- Thread starter Will Kürlich Kerl
- Start date
Since, at guess, almost no one on this site even knows who you're talking about, some background would help your cause. IMO.
Googles. Romanian?
The thing is, I wonder how long he'd be able to hold on to all the Danubian Principalities. He had signed an agreement with Rudolph II recognising him as his suzerain over all his possession's (Transylvania, Oltenia, Wallachia and Moldova if I recall correctly) but the problem was Rudolph didn't trust him.
The Ottomans would want the lower Danubian Principalities back under their fold, and If I'm not mistaken Michael also had troubles with Poland and the Bathory's over Moldavia and Transylvania. Michael was an adept political and military leader but the situation could easily crumble for him as it did in OTL (with his assassination, unfortunately). All his immediate neighbours, even nominal/real allies didn't really trust him. There's no one for him to either. France is for the most part in the Ottoman camp, Russia at this point isn't much of a factor and she'd have to possible face both the Ottoman's and PLC in the prime. Sweden is a bit far off but not completely impossible though.
The Ottomans would want the lower Danubian Principalities back under their fold, and If I'm not mistaken Michael also had troubles with Poland and the Bathory's over Moldavia and Transylvania. Michael was an adept political and military leader but the situation could easily crumble for him as it did in OTL (with his assassination, unfortunately). All his immediate neighbours, even nominal/real allies didn't really trust him. There's no one for him to either. France is for the most part in the Ottoman camp, Russia at this point isn't much of a factor and she'd have to possible face both the Ottoman's and PLC in the prime. Sweden is a bit far off but not completely impossible though.
Zagan
Donor
It would have been extremely unlikely from a biological point of view.
In the 17th century, to get to 83 years old... Is a miracle in itself!
Hi,
In order to have the 3 principalities remain unifies under Michel the Brave, you need a POD earlier than his assassination.
The clock run against him as:
- The Ottomans were in their prime and want to keep the principalities
- The Hapsburg were embroiled in wars across the Europe, fighting the Ottoman War and they want the Transylvania for themselves (not all the countries). Rudolph make use of Michael only for commodity to get read of Hungarian nobles unwilling of his rule.
- Poland want the control of Moldavia... and they are willing to negotiate with the Turks.
- The underpopulation of Valachia - the population jumped from 500.000 to 150.000 in less than 2 centuries ==> less soldiers and faaar less income as the older commercial roads were no more
- The change in warfare ==> the need of mercenaries ==> cash... tons of cash
- The dynastic instability in the Romanian countries - remember, Michael is barely a bastard (some historians argue that he not even that) ==> always will pop up somebody how claim the throne and gather around him the unsatisfied nobles + foreign intervention
- His personality ==> he is not willing to ply himself as a Hapsburg vassal, even less a Hapsburg Governor.
So... what Michael have done is spectacular, but hardly to endure. You need at least the Hapsburg intention of keeping all the 3 Romanian Principalities and the mutual trust between Rudolph and Michael.
In order to have the 3 principalities remain unifies under Michel the Brave, you need a POD earlier than his assassination.
The clock run against him as:
- The Ottomans were in their prime and want to keep the principalities
- The Hapsburg were embroiled in wars across the Europe, fighting the Ottoman War and they want the Transylvania for themselves (not all the countries). Rudolph make use of Michael only for commodity to get read of Hungarian nobles unwilling of his rule.
- Poland want the control of Moldavia... and they are willing to negotiate with the Turks.
- The underpopulation of Valachia - the population jumped from 500.000 to 150.000 in less than 2 centuries ==> less soldiers and faaar less income as the older commercial roads were no more
- The change in warfare ==> the need of mercenaries ==> cash... tons of cash
- The dynastic instability in the Romanian countries - remember, Michael is barely a bastard (some historians argue that he not even that) ==> always will pop up somebody how claim the throne and gather around him the unsatisfied nobles + foreign intervention
- His personality ==> he is not willing to ply himself as a Hapsburg vassal, even less a Hapsburg Governor.
So... what Michael have done is spectacular, but hardly to endure. You need at least the Hapsburg intention of keeping all the 3 Romanian Principalities and the mutual trust between Rudolph and Michael.