Still unlikely, as het consequense would have been fewer USN carriers in the first place, as the USA played it fair accepting the treaty limmitations and the actual amount of tonnage to build. With USS Ranger not being build and the other yorktown-Mod. type larger, meant only three more carriers, not four, besides the two conversions and Langley. With one on duties elsewhere, the Pacific would simply mis another pair in the first half of 1942 and one in the 2nd half (Both Wasp and Hornet not available, as ersatz Ranger would be in the Atlantic and Wasp was never created in the first place, leaving only Ersatz Yorktown, Enterprise and the two Lexingtons, with Hornet likely becomming a first Essex class later in the war.
That would result in an OTL scenario with only Enterprise left in late 1942, with Saratoga under repairs and nothing else. Not very hopefull for the USA with so little to play with. Perhaps building smaller carriers in larger numbers was better after all. They were sort of expendable at least, while a few large ones were not.
So in the last scenario, USS Enterprise was allone at Santa Cruz, against two large and two smaller IJN carriers. Hornet never been build and all IJN aircraft concentrating on USS Enterprise, propably hitting her fatally, even if it was a much larger ship. In the OTL the IJN airgroups had to slpit up between the two USN Flattops, allowing Enterprise to excape fatal hits, though still seriously damaged. Perhaps replacing a USN thinly proteced carrier with an Illustrious class was an option, as the bombs of the IJN divebombers were unable to pierce into their hangars, unlike the ooden decked USN carriers. Only torpedoes could defeat them and the Illustrious class had a very short turncircle, so could evade these even better than a Yorktown. (Length to beam on the waterline was shorter than on a Yorktown.)