WI Wellington Loses at Waterloo

John Fredrick Parker · Jul 17, 2014

It seems the board broadly agrees that even if Napoleon had won the Battle of Waterloo (say no hemeroids), he still would have been brought down by Russian and/or Austrian forces. From this, it's not a stretch to conclude Britain and/or Prussia would have a weaker position in shaping post-war Europe, compared with Austria and/or Russia. Here's how the conversation last went:

Janprimus said:
This also leaves the question, if the Austrians (also leading some German minor states) and Russians would have played a more decisive role in defeating Napoléon, how would this affect later peace negotiations?

ingemann said:
I would imagine that the British and Prussians would be in a weaker position, while Austrians would be in a stronger position. I think Russia got what they could get. But Austria may be able to force the Wittelsbach to accept losses in Bavaria against a stronger position in the Rhineland. The Dutch will likely get Belgium (no one wanted France to keep it, but neither was anyone willing to get and be neighbour to France), but also greater gain in the Rhineland. I could see the Grand Duchy of the Lower Rhine being split between Netherlands and Palatinate, the first will make the British happy. While the latter will serve as part of the trade with Bavaria for losses in their homeland. Alsace may either go to Bavaria or be split between Bavaria and Baden. Austria take Bavarian Franconian, Salzburg and Oberpfalz (they would rather have the south, but are not willing to restart the war over it). Because Prussia do not gain the Lower Rhine, instead they keep their part from the second partition of Poland (Congress Poland become slightly smaller). The HRE is reestablish under a Austrian emperor.

HunterX said:
The Congress of Vienna was already enacted before Waterloo, dramatic changes to its outcome like this are not going to happen. Russia certainly isn't going to lose territory, nor do I see your revisions to the Rhineland as likely. Your proposal is essentially an Austria wank. A longer 100 Days isn't going to make Austria this aggressive and risk war rewriting the map of Europe at the expense of Prussia and Russia.

Janprimus said:
Maybe a bit too much, but if ITTL Scharzenberg is the one, who defeats Napoléon and not like IOTL Wellington and Blücher, then Austria should be able to get a result, which will give them a better position in the German Lands. The HRE won't be re-established IMHO just like IOTL a German Confederation is more likely. But I do find a bit less gains for Prussia conceivable, but at the same time king William I of the Netherlands, just like IOTL won't get his desired eastern gains. Austria could get a bit more Bavarian territory, but maybe not all the lands suggested by ingemann, however the Palatinate could be compensated in the area of the Lower Rhine (without the 'Dutch share' going into that equation).
I also agree, that Russia probably won't accept anything less than IOTL; either they were the only other undefeated army in the field of that campaign or they actually defeated Napoléon together with the Austrians.

What do you guys think? Is Russia getting more from the Peace (possibly even greater influence in Europe) is out of the question? And however this changes the balance of power in Europe, how is the 19th Century altered?

Gurroruo · Jul 17, 2014

Was there a need for a new thread?

John Fredrick Parker · Jul 17, 2014

Gurroruo said:
Was there a need for a new thread?

Well, the last one's ten months old, so I figured I'd play it safe.

Gurroruo · Jul 17, 2014

ok the Russians wouldn't go for more, because they got what they wanted.

They Austrians would ask for more

Also with the major defeat you could see British military confidence lowered significantly

pompejus · Jul 18, 2014

I could mix up my dates, but weren't the peace treaty negotiations in Vienna finished before Waterloo? Personaly I consider it unlikely for anyone to reopen it.

U.S David · Jul 18, 2014

Spain was about to invade from the South, with Russian and Austrian forces coming.

France would have been invaded and craved up.

Gurroruo · Jul 18, 2014

pompejus said:
I could mix up my dates, but weren't the peace treaty negotiations in Vienna finished before Waterloo? Personaly I consider it unlikely for anyone to reopen it.

They were finished about a week before Waterloo, so they could be reopened but it would most likely be a separate thing not an amendment

pompejus · Jul 18, 2014

U.S David said:
Spain was about to invade from the South, with Russian and Austrian forces coming.

France would have been invaded and craved up.

Assuming you mean carved up, no. That was not the way they did things in those days. At worse (and even that is kind of doubtful) France would lose some parts of the perifery, like colonies, French Flanders/Hainaut, Corsica, Alsace, etc.

Gurroruo said:
They were finished about a week before Waterloo, so they could be reopened but it would most likely be a separate thing not an amendment

They wouldn't start all over. They had an agreement everyone agreed with, so at best it would be some minor changes. Like the ones I mentioned above. They will not renegotiate the German Rhineland, or the situation in Poland.

If you realy want a big renegotiation, have Waterloo happen during the Vienna congress, when there was still something to decide.