Ingenohls Chance

In mid December 1914 the Germans executed a cruiser raid on Scarborough, Whitby, & Hartlepool England. The point was to lure a portion of the British fleet into ambush. The complex plan included a force of light and heavy battle cruisers to do the bombardment, and a larger force of battlecruisers and dreadnought class ships waiting further out in the North Sea to attack any British ships pursuing the raiding force.

The short version of a very complex series of events has the British warned by decoded radio messages that the Germans would sortie a portion of their fleet. The Brits only sortied a portion of their dreadnoughts, six, and four light cruisers under Admiral Warrender. On the 16th at approx 05:30 Warenders command came within fifty miles of the the main German fleet under Ingenohl. Approx eighty ships including all the available dreadnoughts. Destroyers skirmished, but Ingenohl took counsel from prudence & orders and turned away, back to the Jade. A act which effectively abandoned the German raiding cruisers.

Ingenohl in this act was mindful of the Kaisers directive of not engaging the British fleet in a stand up battle. When reports came in of destroyer contacts from widely seperated points he seems to have assumed the entire Brit fleet was at hand.

The question here is what is the likely outcome were Ingenohl to remain on course and intercept Warrenders small force within the hour. ...and what would be the long term effects?

The usual assumption I've seen is Warrenders ships are caught and massacred, with perhaps a few German cruisers or dreadnoughts severely damaged.

There are two ways this plays out as the most likely outcomes, in my opinion.

A) Beatty and Warrender figure out they are out numbered and use their speed advantage to refuse to engage other than briefly.

B) A battle does occur and the RN force gets thumped VERY hard, perhaps totally destroyed.

Its possible you get something in between these two but I actually don't think thats likely.

I lean towards some flavor of blowout victory and here is why.

1) I think first of all that Beatty and Warrender WOULD engage. The RNs tradition didn't favor the idea of commanders not being aggressive, Jellicoe was an outstanding commander in a number of ways not the least of which was he was able to see outside of those traditions. Problem is Jellicoe isn't here. Fisher and Churchill came up with the idea of splitting forces despite Jellicoe's protests.

The RN had just court-martialed Ernest Troubridge over his failure to take on Goeben with ACs. Despite being acquitted Troubridge wasn't given a command again. Rear Admiral Christopher Cradock in his letters to the admiralty said point blank that he wasn't going to do anything to risk such a disgrace and so he took on von Spee's East Asia squadron knowing the he and his command was most likely going to get trashed. Afterwards Cradock was lionized as fighting the good but hopeless fight and in time some memorials were built for him.

People really need to put themselves into the mindset of the people of the time. These were people that still held to cults of honor and would be willing to die over points of honor.

2) I don't have very much respect for Beatty as a naval officer. I have said else where that he was born 100 years too late and in the wrong service. He should have been a cavalry officer facing Marshal Murat. The man had a VERY bad habit of going hog wild after anything that came into his vision and chasing after it at best possible speed allowing his ships to get separated, he didn't report in very well which was his primary function as scout leader and his ships were noted to be horrible shooters.

I strongly suspect that Beatty would do SOMETHING stupid if an action happened here. With the Germans having greater numbers this would, I feel, prove fatal.

3) HMS Tiger is still working up really, at Dogger Bank her shooting was BAD. Bad enough that a person could try to make the case that she only counts as a target in a gunnery action.

4) Even with the bad weather limiting their utility the Germans have a screen. 2 AC, 6 CL and 54 Destroyers vs. 4 AC, 4 CL and 7 Destroyers. Hipper along with 1st and 2nd Scouting are along the coast so they wouldn't come into play till later in any battle but thats another 4 CL and 18 DDs.

Having the light ships and such a large edge in them gives Ingenhohl all sorts of tactical options in a battle that Warrender just isn't going to have.

5) The RNs munitions at this time are a double problem. First the APC shells don't work very well, 15" shells hitting armor as thin as 8" some times caused the shell to prematurely detonate and do little damage. This isn't corrected till the British introduce the so called 'Green Boy' shells following Jutland. Second British cordite is horribly unstable compared to the Germans power. Even without Beatty giving orders to violate safety regulations with its handling its still vulnerable to flash and the BC's are under armored.

6) The Germans shooting just appears to be better, going off Jutland the Germans are going to land more hits per shot. With more barrels this is going to make the edge in numbers even worse. You could very likely see German ships having undisturbed fire; IE with more German ships they are not getting shot back at and its like target practice. Germans of course might run into issue of too many shooters on target but of all the problems to have I think that is one they would like to have.

7) See first part of #5, while the German APC and Semi-APC rounds might not have been perfect they appeared to have worked far more often. So their shells are far more likely to work as designed.

So lets combine these points together and think on what it represents.

If people are not familiar with it I suggest they read N Squared.

http://www.navweaps.com/index_tech/tech-076.htm

So yes I think a blow out German victory is possible but you need Ingenhohl to do something other than freak when first word of contact occurs in the early hours.

Michael

The consequences of 6 dreadnoughts being sunk:

1) The British need to reduce their naval commitments, consolidate and not risk splitting their forces again. Only risk a big battle coast to Britain, no sweeps of the North Sea or anything like that.
2) I can't see the British going ahead with Gallipoli or even Salonika.
3) I can't see Italy entering the war, at least in May 1915 (the Italian expected a certain amount of naval help which wouldn't be forthcoming)
4) The British might want to have a French or Japanese naval squadron as North Sea help.
5) The British would still have their Iceland - Scotland blockade line still and there is little The Germans can do about it.
6) The Germans can bombard these British coastal towns whenever they want and the British aren't going to fall for that trick again, these destoyed towns are embarassing to the Royal Navay but little real damage done.
7) Once the Queen Elizabeth class is in the line in 1916, the British will have a clear superiority again.

In any case: 2+3 above are probably war winning changes for the Central Powers ultimately.

Catspoke said:

The consequences of 6 dreadnoughts being sunk:

1) The British need to reduce their naval commitments, consolidate and not risk splitting their forces again. Only risk a big battle coast to Britain, no sweeps of the North Sea or anything like that.

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You would expect that Jellicoe would use the outcome to his advantage as a expensive vindication of his strategy. Its going to get Churchill and and Fisher sacked to be sure. Good chance the government might fail also.

Still Jellicoe can't ignore the Germans all together but the GF is going to be VERY reluctant to go south.

Might also discredit decoding since they missed a key element.

Catspoke said:

The consequences of 6 dreadnoughts being sunk:

2) I can't see the British going ahead with Gallipoli or even Salonika.

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Reasonable thought on Gallipoli but the Greek adventure is far down the road.

Catspoke said:

The consequences of 6 dreadnoughts being sunk:

3) I can't see Italy entering the war, at least in May 1915 (the Italian expected a certain amount of naval help which wouldn't be forthcoming)

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It might make them pause in the short term but it would also amp the desire of Paris and London to get Italy to jump in so the bribes and promises are increased it might be a wash over all.

Catspoke said:

The consequences of 6 dreadnoughts being sunk:

4) The British might want to have a French or Japanese naval squadron as North Sea help.

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MN is going to be needed in Med and the French ships would be liability in battle. Look up the max range of the French guns.

IJN squadron at Scapa flow is often talked about but I don't know how likely it is. As of the date they don't actually have many modern IJN units other than Kongo and her sisters as they enter service.

IJN to med makes more sense to help out there and Channel Fleet absorbed into GF. So PDNs continue to operate longer.

Rush on the QE and R class ships plus new building program.

Catspoke said:

The consequences of 6 dreadnoughts being sunk:

5) The British would still have their Iceland - Scotland blockade line still and there is little The Germans can do about it.

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Correct and that is key, Germans would have to be willing to try BC raids which means risking defeat in detail and only CL screen, very risky. Even then all they can do is push the blockade line back no end it.

Catspoke said:

The consequences of 6 dreadnoughts being sunk:

6) The Germans can bombard these British coastal towns whenever they want and the British aren't going to fall for that trick again, these destoyed towns are embarassing to the Royal Navay but little real damage done.

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You would hope

Catspoke said:

The consequences of 6 dreadnoughts being sunk:

7) Once the Queen Elizabeth class is in the line in 1916, the British will have a clear superiority again.

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Up to 10 DN and BC lost is a lot of tonnage, yes the 15" gun ships are hugely strong but Jellicoe or whoever is going to be worried all the same.

Catspoke said:

The consequences of 6 dreadnoughts being sunk:

In any case: 2+3 above are probably war winning changes for the Central Powers ultimately.

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Answer hazy ask again later.

What I see as most important is that it gives the Germans hope that they can win a naval battle. So it delays the entire Unrestricted Warfare cycle that drags the USA in. Depending on exact details on how things play out that could have big effects by 1917.

Michael

miketr said:

What I see as most important is that it gives the Germans hope that they can win a naval battle. So it delays the entire Unrestricted Warfare cycle that drags the USA in. Depending on exact details on how things play out that could have big effects by 1917.

Michael

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Good point, probably no 1915 version of USW, no Lusitania.

Would the Germans accept a pitch naval battle straight up at this point, figuring their chances would never be better???? And how would they force such a thing (a channel raid?)

Catspoke said:

Good point, probably no 1915 version of USW, no Lusitania.

Would the Germans accept a pitch naval battle straight up at this point, figuring their chances would never be better???? And how would they force such a thing (a channel raid?)

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Figure several months to repair the battle damage on the German side and Tirpitz will no doubt try to make hay out of this some how. So March or April the Germans will start looking to either repeat this stunt or if circumstances are right take on the GF. Problem is the GF isn't going to cooperate so figure another few months go by and then the Germans will have to come up with a new plan.

So July or August the Germans are going to have to try something a little more risky. What I don't know, Channel raid might not be enough. My default answer is a company up to battalion size raid on the UK itself East Anglia, Kent or Essex area. THAT would draw the GF out but it would be hugely dangerous move to say the least.

Could the Germans win a second battle in 1915 under these circumstances? Yes but by no means is naval victory a given or even likely. RN is still BIG, they would still have geography even in a defeat and much would depend on the exact details and what happened to get a fight.

Michael

If the Brit fleet wont come out the Germans can try raiding coastal resorts every month, or twice a month in the hope political pressure will force them out?

Carl Schwamberger said:

If the Brit fleet wont come out the Germans can try raiding coastal resorts every month, or twice a month in the hope political pressure will force them out?

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Very much seconded. The political fallout amongst neutral powers over the vaunted Royal Navy loosing a big sea battle at all, would be way out of proportion to it's strategic significance.

Nations don't act with cold rational logic like the AI in a strategy game.
Now we with the benefit of hindsight know, that the RN simply "holding the line" at the longdistance Blockade is indeed a warwinning naval strategy for them. However them simply abandoning the east coast to a Hochseeflotte, that seemingly strikes at will with impunity seems extremly unlikely to happen IMO. Even if political pressure to "drive the Hun from our shores" can indeed be resisted it would still make the UK look much weaker than it is among neutral countries. So for starters:
- Italy staying neutral "for the time being"
- Dito Romania, Portugal & Greece
- Bulgaria might join the CP earlier

and even more importantly I'd expect the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway and Sweden take a much firmer line against the British Blockade. Blockading neutrals as they did was always a matter of they can get away with it, well because they could simply.

Carl Schwamberger said:

If the Brit fleet wont come out the Germans can try raiding coastal resorts every month, or twice a month in the hope political pressure will force them out?

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Expect the Germans to shell the coast towns with BCs but it not to work. No something more would be needed.

Michael

miketr said:

5) The RNs munitions at this time are a double problem. First the APC shells don't work very well, 15" shells hitting armor as thin as 8" some times caused the shell to prematurely detonate and do little damage.

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I vaguely remember hearing something about the pre-war shells being more reliable than the wartime ones used at Jutland?

I'm not convinced about the likelihood of getting a decisive engagement though. The battle will begin between the destroyer screens, not between the battleships, at which point the sheer number of German destroyers should make it obvious that at least that the bulk of the HSF is out there. The RN is aggressive, but not stupidly so. At Jutland, the battlecruisers were happy to turn round and run when confronted with superior forces, while during the raid on Yarmouth and Lowestoft, the inferior British forces didn't just charge in either. Coronel isn't an exact analogue, as the British squadron was strategically unimportant and not fast enough to run anyway, while damage to the German squadron was disproportionately valuable, given their distance from friendly bases.

IMO it's more likely that the RN will attempt to turn round while maintaining scouts in contact and yelling for the Grand Fleet. Of course, this still may end badly, given how badly they're outnumbered and the threat of torpedo attack from the superior German escorts. So I think your middle ground is more plausible - loss of most of the RN destroyers as they fight the German screen and shield the battleships with smoke, with a reasonable chance of one or two battleships lost, after being slowed by gunfire or torpedoed by the German screen. This is still a very respectable tactical victory for the HSF, and a vindication of the coastal raiding strategy - but one that potentially sets them up for an earlier Jutland.

Also this encounter would have taken place in absolutely foul weather, the sea was rough as hell and it was very foggy. If the RN saw the entire HSF there they would not go "Rule Britannia!" and attack, they'd disengage and RN capital ships were faster than the majority of the German fleet.

King Augeas said:

I vaguely remember hearing something about the pre-war shells being more reliable than the wartime ones used at Jutland?

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Issues noted that lead to the Green Boys were the type of explosive used, it was unstable. When the shell would hit say 8" of armor or more the sudden compression of the impact might cause the shell to detonate. So no penetration occurs and the vast majority of the energy wasted.

On top of this the war time shells were noted to be even worse than than the peace time ones. Its possible that the BBs at least are still using peace time stocks. Even so the explosive filler compression issue is still there.

King Augeas said:

I'm not convinced about the likelihood of getting a decisive engagement though. The battle will begin between the destroyer screens, not between the battleships, at which point the sheer number of German destroyers should make it obvious that at least that the bulk of the HSF is out there.

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RN has 7 DD's here, the first brush of DD's is what caused Ingenohl to bolt. Warrender and Beatty moved toward the sound of the guns. Beatty was horrible at reporting in. I strongly suspect that first clue that Warrender has that he is facing the entire HSF is after the first German DD's execute a torpedo attack on him.

King Augeas said:

The RN is aggressive, but not stupidly so. At Jutland, the battlecruisers were happy to turn round and run when confronted with superior forces, while during the raid on Yarmouth and Lowestoft, the inferior British forces didn't just charge in either. Coronel isn't an exact analogue, as the British squadron was strategically unimportant and not fast enough to run anyway, while damage to the German squadron was disproportionately valuable, given their distance from friendly bases.

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Admiral Craddock expected his command to be destroyed out of hand and he pointed at the recent court martial as his primary motivation in engaging Von Spee when he wrote the admiralty before taking his squadron out.

At Jutland Beatty got into gunnery range of the HSF before he turned north to draw them towards the GF. Please note that Beatty gave very little in terms of useful information to Jellicoe. So Beatty is most likely going to lead the HSF towards Warrender but not till him what exactly is on his heels; assuming he realizes its the entire HSF.

King Augeas said:

IMO it's more likely that the RN will attempt to turn round while maintaining scouts in contact and yelling for the Grand Fleet. Of course, this still may end badly, given how badly they're outnumbered and the threat of torpedo attack from the superior German escorts. So I think your middle ground is more plausible - loss of most of the RN destroyers as they fight the German screen and shield the battleships with smoke, with a reasonable chance of one or two battleships lost, after being slowed by gunfire or torpedoed by the German screen. This is still a very respectable tactical victory for the HSF, and a vindication of the coastal raiding strategy - but one that potentially sets them up for an earlier Jutland.

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You are asking a lot of 7 DD's and 4 CL's vs 50 plus destroyers on the German side is all I am saying here.

If we agree to disagree that is fine.

Michael

Destroyer screens, destroyer smoke, and similar matters would not be 'as usual' by this battle starting before sunrise. Ingerohl seems to have made his decision to turn away two hours before sunrise. At that point the battle fleets were slightly over fifty nautical miles apart and approaching at a combined speed of approx forty miles per hour. Also the destroyer screens had already first contact, one of the reasons Ingerohl turned away, and note that Warrender did not. Exactly what he was thinking is not clear as I've found nothing yet from him or a witness. Maybe Warrender would figure out in the dark what the situation was, maybe not.

Trivia note: There are claims Warrender had a severe hearing problem, which explains something about his decisions a few hours later when he nearly caught the raiding force.

What is possible would be Beatty and/or Warrender intercepting one flank of the German formation. I dont have useful information on the fleet courses, but if they are not a perfect collision course the Ingerohl will have to figure out that all that firing on one flank is the battle & he needs to stop looking ahead and change formation, at night, with very low visibility. In this case the question is what either commander might do as sunrise approaches.

miketr said:

Reasonable thought on Gallipoli but the Greek adventure is far down the road.
l

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Absent Churchill and London's interferance,and with more limited naval forces, it is plausible that Britain goes with the Alexandretta landings instead, as recommended by the Cairo office. There are no coastal defenses of any note, it is a nice flat plain defended by 2 half strength Turkish divisions , and the rail line supplying Palestine and Syria is right there, with the main line to Baghdad only 25 KM inland. If the British take Alexandretta they will cut the Ottomans in two.

Deckhand said:

Absent Churchill and London's interferance,and with more limited naval forces, it is plausible that Britain goes with the Alexandretta landings instead, as recommended by the Cairo office. There are no coastal defenses of any note, it is a nice flat plain defended by 2 half strength Turkish divisions , and the rail line supplying Palestine and Syria is right there, with the main line to Baghdad only 25 KM inland. If the British take Alexandretta they will cut the Ottomans in two.

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Such butterflies are possible to be sure and it would put the Ottomans into a Bind. Especially as till Bulgaria joins and Serbia taken out there is little the Germans can do to help them.

Michael

Interesting details. I agree that the exact fleet paths are important and that things could get very messy depending on exactly how they blunder into each other at night.

But what happens next? The RN is not keen at night fighting at this time and will seek to keep together ready for a daylight action. If Jutland is anything to go by, there's a very confusing night action with the potential of significant loss. When dawn comes, the nature of the subsequent action depends on the visibility and the dispersal of the fleets, which we can't say much about. Good visibility and intermingled fleets offers the best chance of a major Germany victory. Separated fleets will result in a hurried British disengagement, particularly if the German destroyers launch torpedo attacks. The historical bad weather will slow the rate of increase of visibility as dawn breaks, giving Warrender more time to figure out what he's up against. It's entirely possible that he gets surprised by the sudden appearance of the HSF at close range at dawn, but it's not credible that, upon realising that he's outmatched, he doesn't attempt to disengage. Coronel is a bad analogue because it involves an insignificant British squadron with no prospect of reinforcement, unable to run from a faster German squadron.

As for the seven destroyers and four light cruisers, in a daylight fleet action I'm expecting them to get sunk mostly, attempting to protect the important ships as they try to disengage. What did you think I was describing?

Argh, just lost a looong post on fleet dispositions ...

So, the cliff notes:

info from here

British forces are heading southeast, 2nd BS at the centre, 3rd CS 1 mile to port, 1st LCS 5 miles to starboard, BCF 5 miles ahead and the DF 10 miles roughly to the east.

German forces are heading west, forward elements are Hamburg + 3 TBs to the north, 3rd SG + 8 TBs to the south. Behind SMS Stettin is leading half the remaining TBs in front of the HSF, remaining 5 CLs + TBs are on the flanks.

1. Keep V155 back with SMS Hamburg and her two other TBs, avoiding OTLs initial contact. (HSF keeps going)

2. The 7 DDs of 4th DF pass between Hamburg and 3rd SG (Roon, Prinz Heinrich and 8 TBs) without sightings on either side (2 hours till dawn).

3. Around 1 hour later, Beatty stumbles over 3rd SG, quickly destroying the ACs but probably catching some torpedoes along the way.

4. At roughly the same time, Hamburg + escorts spot 3rd CS, fire torpedoes, turn tail and run. (Do they spot Warrender as well?)

5. Stettin probably in position to spot the gun flashes, light gathering, weather still fair (no storms until about 11AM).

The HSF is at least 1 hour (around 20 knots combined closing velocity?) closer to the British rendesvouz point. What happens next depends very much on the quality of reports on both sides ...

sharlin said:

Also this encounter would have taken place in absolutely foul weather, the sea was rough as hell and it was very foggy. If the RN saw the entire HSF there they would not go "Rule Britannia!" and attack, they'd disengage and RN capital ships were faster than the majority of the German fleet.

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IF Warrender knew it was the entire HSF rather than say the BC force he was looking to mouse trap and destroy. Or is it another detached German force? Beatty was poor at communicating and only I strongly suspect that Warrender really won't know what he is facing till he is at least partially engaged.

Michael

I am starting to suspect if this were gamed out it would crawl off in a different course every time it was played. The smallest variables in squadron course, spacing, speed, visibility will make large differences in who spots whom & when. Then there are the endless variable of when the individual ships commanders decide to signal, order firing, turn....

It is not just decisions of the British side. Ingenohl turned away as soon as the first reports of destroyer skirmishes accumulated. If he does not turn then does he continue to gamble the entire British fleet is not on the night Horizon? ...and for how much longer?

Carl Schwamberger said:

I am starting to suspect if this were gamed out it would crawl off in a different course every time it was played. The smallest variables in squadron course, spacing, speed, visibility will make large differences in who spots whom & when. Then there are the endless variable of when the individual ships commanders decide to signal, order firing, turn....

It is not just decisions of the British side. Ingenohl turned away as soon as the first reports of destroyer skirmishes accumulated. If he does not turn then does he continue to gamble the entire British fleet is not on the night Horizon? ...and for how much longer?

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That is very true, I said that I saw two outcomes as most likely but they are without a doubt not the only two possible if the Germans keep going.

Michael