Iran-Contra and the Fall of Ronald Reagan

This is my first TL on here inspired by the thread for AHC to ruin Reagan's legacy. This TL uses one POD by having the scandal break a month earlier, putting it just in time to impact the outcome of the mid-term elections.

July 1986
- Hezbollah agents trade a Catholic Relief aid worker for arms as part of the network established by Oliver North.

August 2nd, 1986 (POD) - Medhi Hashami, a devoted supporter of the Iranian Revolution, has had enough with the secret arms deals with the United States. Hashami, after hearing of the recent hostage for arms trade, contacts the Lebanese newspaper Ash-Shiraa and arranges the leak.

August 10th, 1986 - Hashami meets in secret with Lebanese reporters in Beirut and gives them specific information confirming his story.

August 24th, 1986 - Ash-Shiraa editors approve following up on the arms-for-hostages deal following subsequent investigation.

October 3rd, 1986 - Ash-Shiraa publishes the story on the arms-for-hostages deal. The Iranian government confirms the story the next day.

October 5th, 1986 - CBS News runs a story on the arms for hostages swaps.

October 6th, 1986 - Ronald Reagan takes to the airwaves speaking directly to the American people from the Oval Office on the subject saying,

"My purpose was... to send a signal that the United States was prepared to replace the animosity between [the U.S. and Iran] with a new relationship... At the same time we undertook this initiative, we made clear that Iran must oppose all forms of international terrorism as a condition of progress in our relationship. The most significant step which Iran could take, we indicated, would be to use its influence in Lebanon to secure the release of all hostages held there."

October 7th, 1986 -House Majority Leader Jim Wright and Senate Minority Leader Robert Byrd hold a joint press conference. They condemn the Reagan administration for violating the terms of the Boland Amendment which expressly forbid the use of government funds to support Contra efforts to overthrow the Nicaraguan government.

October 12th, 1986 - Nicaraguan forces shoot down a cargo plane running supplies to Contra forces. In a press conference held by the Nicaraguan government the lone survivor, Eugene Hasenfus, claims the flights were directly supervised by the CIA.

October 13th, 1986 - The headline on every television and newspaper today is the growing arms for hostages scandal. Many are openly wondering if this will be a new Watergate, leading to some to dub it Irangate.

October 14th, 1986 - In a contentious press conference the White House responds to the growing publicity. Press Secretary Larry Speakes says the administration position is Congress does not have the right to dictate foreign policy through its power of the purse.

October 16th, 1986 - Wright and Byrd, with all the current Democratic Congress members in attendance, hold a press conference denouncing the White House's high-handed behavior. Jim Wright denounces Reagan as another Richard Nixon.

October 20th, 1986 - New polls are in on the growing Iran-Contra scandal. A New York Times/CBS poll puts the President's approval rating at 46% down from 67%, the largest single drop in approval ratings in Presidential history. Pollsters are predicting the Democrats will retake the Senate with a strong majority and strengthen their domination of the House.
 
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I agree. This looks like it should be good. Also appreciate the links for unfamiliar people/situations.
 
Interesting. I'll be curious to see if GHW Bush gets dragged into this. Could this lead to President Thomas P. O'Neill?

A small nitpick on what appears to be a typo: the House Majority Leader was Jim Wright (not Tim).

Also, it's hard to see this earlier scandal affecting the Senate races much more than OTL. Democrats picked up a net of 8 seats; this might have thrown the Missouri contest between Kit Bond and Harriett Woods for a Dem hold on Eagleton's seat and there's an outside chance that Steve Symms might have lost in Idaho (the OTL race was close), but 1986 went very well for Democrats as it was. At best, Dems would have had a 57-43 majority rather than the 55-45 majority they had in OTL.
 
Interesting. I'll be curious to see if GHW Bush gets dragged into this. Could this lead to President Thomas P. O'Neill?

That, sadly, isn't in the cards since Tip was retiring that term and succeeded by Jim (oops on the typo) Wright as the new Speaker.

Also, it's hard to see this earlier scandal affecting the Senate races much more than OTL. Democrats picked up a net of 8 seats; this might have thrown the Missouri contest between Kit Bond and Harriett Woods for a Dem hold on Eagleton's seat and there's an outside chance that Steve Symms might have lost in Idaho (the OTL race was close), but 1986 went very well for Democrats as it was. At best, Dems would have had a 57-43 majority rather than the 55-45 majority they had in OTL.

Yeah I don't see the Dems picking up any more than Missouri and Idaho. I toyed with the idea of knocking out John McCain but that would require the proverbial dead girl and live boy, the biggest impact is going to be how the scandal unfolds with an accelerated timeline and a Congressional delegation that's grabbed the scandal as the main issue of the election.
 
Thing is, this will just cause the budding Millitia/Posse Comitatus to be willing to support Reagan with everything they've got. They'll see it as him being punished for doing the right thing, and will be quite willing to attack the Democratic leadership for these goings on.

The best part about it from Roger Ailes and company's oint of view, is that they would have been totally deniable assets that could never have been traced back to them.

What is worse, is that to most of the mainstream media, this will be nothing more than a tempest in a teacup.
 
Nationwide Campaign Ad Aired by the DSCC October 22nd, 1986

Footage of the October 14th press conference plays in the background

Audio: In 1984 President Reagan promised "Morning in America"

Audio: Larry Speakes: "The White House considers the Boland Amendment to be an infringement on the powers of the Executive branch"

Screen fades to black

Audio: Why does this sound like a nightmare?

Cut to clip from the Nixon-Frost interview

Audio: Richard Nixon: "When the President does it, that means it is not illegal."

Fade to black

October 21st, 1986 10:00AM: House Judiciary Committee Chairman Peter W. Rodino announces the committee is beginning investigations into the Iran-Contra arms deals. The Committee issues a subpoena for all relevant National Security Council records and documents.

October 21st, 1986 3:00PM: Capitol Police charged with carrying out the subpoena enter the White House to find Colonel Oliver North and his secretary, Fawn Hill, attempting to leave the premises with National Security Council documents specified in the subpoena. The two are arrested for contempt of Congress.1

October 21st, 1986 6:00PM: Congressman Rodino, with the House Democratic leadership in attendance, holds a prime-time press conference denouncing the attempted obstruction of the Judiciary committee's investigation. Rodino compares North's actions to the Nixon White House's destruction of audio tape during the Watergate scandal. He vows Congress will get to the bottom of it, making the investigation top priority for the new Congressional term.

October 28th, 1986: New polls are in on the Iran-Contra affair, the President's approval ratings, and the upcoming elections. Reagan's popularity following the North incident is plummeting rapidly, reaching a new low of 36%. Senate races across the country are seeing boosts for the Democratic challengers with Missouri now too close to call and Idaho looking like a Democratic pickup. Especially noted by commentators is the silence from the White House.2

November 3rd, 1986: Election day results are in. The Democrats have won in a landslide. In the Senate the Democrats took control with a 57-43 majority with pickups in Florida, South Dakota, Washington, North Dakota, Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, and Idaho. The House Democrats increased their majority by 8 seats.

November 4th, 1986: Hot on the heels of the mid-term results is a new development in the growing scandal. The White House announced the resignation of Vice Admiral John Poindexter from his position as National Security Adviser and the termination of Oliver North from his White House position.

1. OTL Ollie North went to shred the documents 18 days after news of the scandal broke. I'm assuming he's going to take as long to get everything together so they can try to sneak them out. It's his bad luck the House Judiciary Chairman is the same guy who impeached Nixon.

2. OTL Ronald Reagan remained silent following the initial address from the Oval Office for three months. When he broke his silence he claimed his reasons were to let all the facts come out.
 
That, sadly, isn't in the cards since Tip was retiring that term and succeeded by Jim (oops on the typo) Wright as the new Speaker...

My bad; I forgot Tip retired then.

Jim Wright as POTUS? Now that's interesting...
 
November 5th, 1986: President Reagan announces the creation of a Special Review Board to investigate, "the circumstances surrounding the Iran-Contra matter, other case studies that might reveal strengths and weaknesses in the operation of the National Security Council system under stress, and the manner in which that system has served eight different Presidents since its inception in 1947." On the following day he appoints former Senator John Tower, former Secretary of State Edmund Muskie, and former National Security Adviser Brent Snowcroft to the board.

November 11th, 1986: The Tower Commission begins its investigations into the Iran-Contra affair.

November 12th, 1986: Reagan testifies before the Tower Commission. His testimony is contradictory and misleading with the President stating he had authorized the arms sales early in his testimony while later when asked claimed he, "Did not recall".

December 19, 1986: Lawrence Edward Walsh is appointed as Independent Counsel to investigate the Iran-Contra affair3.

January 3rd, 1987: The 100th Congress begins. The United States Senate announces the creation of a seven-member Select Committee to investigate the Iran-Contra affair. Democrats Joe Biden, Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Al Gore, and Daniel Inouye as head of the committee and Republicans Ted Stevens, Warren Rudman, and Richard Lugar are selected for the Committee. Nationally televised House Judiciary Committee hearings begin at 9:00 AM.2

January 5th, 1987: Lt. Colonel Oliver North testifies before the House Judiciary Committee. He admits he attempted to shred Security Council documents claiming he did so at the suggestion of CIA Director William Casey. He states former National Security Adviser Robert McFarlane asked him to remove references of direct assistance to the Contras from official documents. He further admits he lied to Congress. North defends his actions arguing the Contras are, "freedom fighters" and he thought the arms scheme was a, "neat idea." The image of North being escorted into the hearing by a bailiff before swearing his oath is branded on television screens, newspapers, and magazines across the country. On the same day President Reagan undergoes surgery for prostate cancer.

January 6th, 1987: Day 2 of North's testimony. Rodino grills North over specific elements in the documents, questioning him on the White House's role in the arms deals. North claims ignorance regarding the President's potential involvement.

January 8th, 1987: CIA Director William Casey drops a major bombshell in his testimony before the House. Casey confirms President Reagan personally authorized the arms for hostages arrangement. He verifies specific details in the Security Council documents regarding the trade arrangement, claiming Robert McFarlane set up the deal in 1985. Casey testifies a total of 2,012 TOW anti-tank missiles, 18 Hawk anti-aircraft missiles, and spare parts for the Hawk missiles were shipped to Iranian "moderate elements" via Israeli intermediaries. Casey also claims Defense Secretary Casper Weinberger participated in the transfer of arms.1

At this point one issue I haven't worked out is the question of an independent counsel. Does anyone think that would be likely at this point, if so who would be appointed? Also if anyone has solid suggestions for the Senate Commission please post, I'm no expert on 80s Congressional politics.

1. OTL Casey was called to testify but suffered from a stroke shortly before his testimony and died on May 5th. ITL Congress is moving a lot faster so they'll get him in front of the committee in time before the stroke strikes him mute.

2. Similar to the Senate Watergate Commission in intent. Biden was the long-time chairman/ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Moynihan was a major critic of government secrecy and would chair a commission on the subject in '91 so I can see him using seniority to get on the committee, and Gore was on the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. Stevens was the ranking member of the Ethics Committee and Lugar was on the Foreign Relations Committee. On the edit I added Inouye as Chairman since he did the same OTL as was pointed out by Plumber and Warren Rudman, also of the Ethics Committee, to balance it out.

3. This is as OTL.
 
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Zioneer

Banned
Great TL; I always thought Reagan should fall politically because of Iran-Contra. I want to see what happens next!
 
Great TL; I always thought Reagan should fall politically because of Iran-Contra. I want to see what happens next!

Thanks! One thing in researching for this TL that consistently amazes me is how incredibly lucky Reagan got. Congress concluded in '87 he was responsible for the whole affair but they didn't have the hard evidence to do anything with it. Even with Ollie North shredding the relevant documents William Casey's stroke the day he was supposed to testify was a stroke of luck for the White House.

Right now I have plans to take this TL through to the conclusion of the scandal and the '88 Presidential elections. If it goes further will depend on interest, I can already see a huge flock of butterflies being let loose by having TWO presidents from the same party facing impeachment within a decade of each other. At the very least the prestige of the presidency and the GOP are going to take huge hits ITL.
 
Definitely subscribing. Wondering what this means for '88, with Dukakis and Bentsen (if they're included at all; a stronger chance for stronger Dems risking a race if Reagan falls as hard as Nixon did).

As much of a fan as I am of not-Reagan, I'll be interested to see how he takes such a beating with all the consequences it had OTL. I think it was Tip O'Neill that said, agree or disagree with him, Reagan was a stand-up guy just to talk to. Without that model of success to keep the conservative Republicans booming, it'll be interesting to see how this alters the political spectrum in our society.
 
Very nice so far. Thinking we might see different nominees for '88 election. The Republicans will probably field someone not directly involved with the Reagan administration to distance themselves from the scandal. Bob Dole? Jack Kemp? Someone else?

The Democratic field would be interesting too. With the Republicans being perceived as vulnerable we might see a few more names enter the race, like Mario Cuomo or Bill Clinton. I also think Biden would get a huge boost in the primaries due to his part on the committee investigating Iran-Contra.

Curious to see where we go from here.
 
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