Victorious CSA in turmoil

May 1864 Hood doesn't back-stab Johnston and attacks as ordered. Sherman forced back.
Sept 1864 Sherman finally reaches Atlanta as he had to take much more time getting there than OTL.
Nov 1864 Little Mac elected Sherman takes Atlanta 3 days after election
Feb 1865 Little Mac sworn in
Apr 1865 Due to presidential interference the Union Army is being forced back
June 1865 President McClellan assassinated President Pendleton assumes office
July 1865 Cease-fire with CSA negotiations begin
Jan 1866 Peace treaty signed
The CSA is made up of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, SC, NC and Va south of Rappahannock and WV remains a Union state. Free trade with the US.
Inflation rate down to 400% a year
Apr 1866 CSA partially defaults on loans. Loans are rewritten to extend their repayment schedule by a factor of 2 and 2 percentage points less interest. Inflation soars to
1500% a year
May 1866 Most of the CSA army goes home. CSA army goes down to a peacetime strength of 60,000 infantry and 15,000 cavalry. Wartime price controls on railroad rates are lifted.
Inflation goes to 2000% a year. Fugitive slaves go north at 5,000 people a month.
Aug 1866 First peacetime crop harvested. Although it falls well short of that of 1859 it is the best crop since then. Inflation falls to 1000% a year.
Nov 1866 Joesph E Johnston elected president.P. G. T. Beauregard elected vice president.
Feb 1867 Joesph Johnston sworn in as president. Food riots break out in Charleston and Atlanta. Even though the CSA has had its best crop since 1859 it is still far short of
that and rail rates are very high as the railroad companies have to pay off their debt while rebuilding the rails.
Apr 1868 Tighter borders and less fugitives roaming around the countryside drops the number of fugitive slaves going north to 2,000 a month. Still, 32,000 slaves escaped in the
last year. Slave prices start going up from their very depressed levels. Worse for the CSA 75,000 small farmers have been bought out by plantation owners in the last year.
Unemployment soars.
1870 strikes break out all over the south as poor whites keep falling further and further behind with some winding up as virtual debt slaves
1882-1890 riots break out all over the South as slaves start replacing poor whites in factories
1891 - 1892 To distract the Poor Whites the CSA starts a war with Mexico hoping to rally the country around the flag. Unfortunately the Mexican Army quietly receives arms and
ammunition from the USA.
1893- 1895 The reconquest of the CSA by the USA. Many Poor Whites see the old CSA as disastrous for them and refused to fight.

Why does it take until July for a cease fire to begin? That seems like a long to me.

SPJ said:

Why does it take until July for a cease fire to begin? That seems like a long to me.

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There won't be a ceasefire as long as Little Mac is president. He would insist on reunion first but couldn't care less about slavery. The cease fire takes place one month after his assassination.

Why are Pendleton's opinions different then? Did he hold a desire for peace with the CSA in OTL? Also do you have a who, where, and why in regards to McClellan's assasination and how the public might remember him in this TL?

SPJ said:

Why are Pendleton's opinions different then? Did he hold a desire for peace with the CSA in OTL? Also do you have a who, where, and why in regards to McClellan's assasination and how the public might remember him in this TL?

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He was a Peace Democrat and McMlellan was a War Democrat so they are quite different. He picked Pendleton to balance the ticket. A former CSA soldier who had his friends killed in one of the battles killed him. The public would probably remember him as a war hero assassinated by a CSA spy.

I like what you have but I'm more ignorant and not as picky as others.

What battle are you changing Hood to attack in and how does this lead to Sherman being slowed down? Why does McClellan force the army back? I'd imagine that he would take actions similar to what Davis did with his army in the West by interfering too much and thus causeing alot of trouble. Is that what your doing in this TL? How did you come up with the inflation statistics? I find that to be a nice touch!

SPJ said:

I like what you have but I'm more ignorant and not as picky as others.

What battle are you changing Hood to attack in and how does this lead to Sherman being slowed down? Why does McClellan force the army back? I'd imagine that he would take actions similar to what Davis did with his army in the West by interfering too much and thus causeing alot of trouble. Is that what your doing in this TL? How did you come up with the inflation statistics? I find that to be a nice touch!

Click to expand...

The Battle of Casseville when Hood attacks as ordered it causes Sherman to fall back . Sherman acts more cautiously than OTL so it takes him much longer. He also has less men than OTL after the battle so that slows him as well. Micromanaging and replacing the likes of Sherman and Grant with his own wimps. In OTL by 1862 the inflation rate was 10% a month or 313% a year and went straight up from there. If anything I am on the low side of what the inflation rate would actually be. By Feb 1865 the CSA would love having an inflation rate as low as 1500% a year.

What reasons could McClellan possibly have to replace Sherman and Grant?! Also who do you think he would replace them with and why those people? When you say the "Union Army is forced back" do you mean from Georgia or any other specific front? And if in Georgia why would McClellan ask Sherman to do such a thing? Why does Joe Johnston go into politics and after the presidency in TTL? Do you really think holding back the capture of Atlanta will cost Lincoln the election? The Union army still had a few major victories besides that one before election time with the battle of Mobile being one which I can recall.

Looks good are you going to continue this?

SPJ said:

What reasons could McClellan possibly have to replace Sherman and Grant?! Also who do you think he would replace them with and why those people? When you say the "Union Army is forced back" do you mean from Georgia or any other specific front? And if in Georgia why would McClellan ask Sherman to do such a thing? Why does Joe Johnston go into politics and after the presidency in TTL? Do you really think holding back the capture of Atlanta will cost Lincoln the election? The Union army still had a few major victories besides that one before election time with the battle of Mobile being one which I can recall.

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Jelousy on his part with the ability to justify it other ways. Sherman would be slowed way down from OTL and will have to fight Johnston every inch of the way in GA as he won't go snipe hunting in TN like Hood did. Grant had one fight after another and he could say Grant was just a bloodthirsty general. Among the generals he may use is Nathanial Banks, Ambrose Burnside and Slocum. Geogia mainly, he would replace Sherman with one of his wimps. Joe Johnston was very popular OTL and would be even more popular in this one. If he runs he will win as the only who could possibly beat him is Lee who was feeling tired and sickly by this point and probably wouldn't run. Atlanta really was the big win, without Atlanta the arguement would be that the war would go on practically forever.

I'm curious about how you think ther period between McClellan's election and inauguration would be. How do you think Lincoln would behave during this time, didn't he say that he would work with McClellan if he was elected? And how might Lincoln be remembered in this TL? Most TLs with this type of situation leace him and the Republicans viewed in an unfavorable light but I believe that the actions of the Democrates during the after war period of TLs like this would most likely have negative effects and could change public opinion back towards the Republican's favor by the time of the next election.

This is an interesting little timeline given your position in debates on this site re the CSA. It'd be good if it could be fleshed out and stand as the 'conservative estimate' CSA 'victory' timeline.

There's also some nice and visible triumphs in the Shenandoah Valley, but I can see those being ignored or lessened TTL if Grant is removed.

And Johnston suddenly fighting Army Group I (Sherman's force - AG II is the guys Grant personally supervised) "Every step of the way" is . . . impressive.

By the way, on inflation, this might be useful: http://inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/ConfederateInflation.asp

1900% if I did the math right by May 1864.

And with almost two thirds of the Confederacy's money spent on the war coming from printing money . . .



Also, how is it maintaining 75,000 men (when the official plan at the start of the war was 10,000)? Meaning, how is it keeping them from deserting simply because they're sick of soldiering and so on?


Just curious, as your timeline is detail-lite.

This is a map inspired by (but not exactly based on) your TL. As you can see, I was not so merciful as to have the CSA reconquered by the USA:

Elfwine said:

There's also some nice and visible triumphs in the Shenandoah Valley, but I can see those being ignored or lessened TTL if Grant is removed.

And Johnston suddenly fighting Army Group I (Sherman's force - AG II is the guys Grant personally supervised) "Every step of the way" is . . . impressive.

By the way, on inflation, this might be useful: http://inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/ConfederateInflation.asp

1900% if I did the math right by May 1864.

And with almost two thirds of the Confederacy's money spent on the war coming from printing money . . .



Also, how is it maintaining 75,000 men (when the official plan at the start of the war was 10,000)? Meaning, how is it keeping them from deserting simply because they're sick of soldiering and so on?


Just curious, as your timeline is detail-lite.

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I admit "every step of the way" is an overstatement on my part. More like "Fight, retreat, fight again" which is more his pattern. He takes longer than OTL to retreat because Sherman's army is smaller and Sherman is more cautious after Casseville. Of course this is much better than Hood who threw away his army in frontal assauts while hunting snipe in TN.


Yeah, if anything I understated the CSA inflation rate. It was bad enough that I could be on the conservative side and still have it damn awful.

It maintains 75,000 largely because it has to (peacetime plans don't mean much. The realities on the ground count for much more) and is able to because although it won it is fragile enough of a victory that everyone knows what will happen if they just go home. In other words it's strong enough not to appear hopeless but the Union is strong enough to necessitate a large army. Not talking about the escaped slaves wandering around the countryside by the end of the war.

Why would the Union even give up New Orleans, when it was filled with Blacks, was a vital port, and they already controlled nearly the entire Mississippi? Why no mention about Indians? Shouldn't the more Unionist western part of North Carolina be annexed instead of the eastern section or are you counting their slaves as a fifth column? And what is the yellow in the last two maps?

Clandango said:

Why would the Union even give up New Orleans, when it was filled with Blacks, was a vital port, and they already controlled nearly the entire Mississippi? Why no mention about Indians? Shouldn't the more Unionist western part of North Carolina be annexed instead of the eastern section or are you counting their slaves as a fifth column? And what is the yellow in the last two maps?

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It was also completely surrounded by hostile territory and the Union wouldn't want to have to have a very large garrison needed to protect it. The Indians don't effect the TL much. They get screwed by the Union and the CSA after the war,pretty much like OTL only with the CSA as well as the US. I didn't make the map. The entirery of NC is part of the CSA. I wanted a fairly conservative estimate of the bad situation the CSA is in. For the most part it goes downhill from here. There are a few realistic TLs in which the CSA can do somewhat better but a whole lot of them where it does even worse.

Johnrankins

I was wondering if you had any other ideas about what actions Pendelton would make as a US president and what other presidents might follow in TTL. How do the public images of the Democratic and Republican parties change from OTL? I'd imagine that the Democrates wouldn't be as popular as in other CSA victory TLs such as TL-191 since some might view the Democrates as being hypocrits due to McClellan being elected b/c of hopes for peace with the CSA only to have him continue the war and then have the war only come to an end when his Democratic Vice Pres. takes his place.

SPJ said:

Johnrankins

I was wondering if you had any other ideas about what actions Pendelton would make as a US president and what other presidents might follow in TTL. How do the public images of the Democratic and Republican parties change from OTL? I'd imagine that the Democrates wouldn't be as popular as in other CSA victory TLs such as TL-191 since some might view the Democrates as being hypocrits due to McClellan being elected b/c of hopes for peace with the CSA only to have him continue the war and then have the war only come to an end when his Democratic Vice Pres. takes his place.

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Little Mac is seen to be as ineffective as president as he was as a general. He isn't seen as hypocritical as he stated very clearly that peace would come on the basis of reunion. If he didn't continue the war until the South agreed to reunion he would have been seen as hypocritical. Pendleton will be seen OK in the short term but a disaster later in history. He would be seen as the president who gave up on the cusp of victory.

Many people on this board speak of the Confederacy in a victorious situation the same way many in Britain spoke of the United States shortly after achieveing her independence. I find it ironic though appropriate, and if we wish to focus on the worst possible outcomes then a few things to consider:

*End of slavery => CSA Civil War
*Second war against the USA +/- slave revolt
*War against external power +/- slave revolt
*Class war/Communist Revolution
*Rewrite of CSA constitution after the war to reflect need for further centralization => CSA Civil War
*Mechanization => end of slavery => CSA Civil War
*Infrastructure failure post-ACW => Dependency on UK/becomes de facto satellite => immigration of talented free white to USA