L'Affair Trent

DJB001

What if the Trent affair happened on a French ship?

I'm sure this has been discussed before but the search engine won't work for me.

This is not an area I have any real knowledge of, so Ill be fascinated to see what comes of the question.

Is there any way France would go to war by itself, against Britain's wishes?

Could we get a destruction of the Union blockade but no troops committed?

Could you get a quasi-war scenario, where France is nominally at war, forcing the union to divert it's attention?

David
 
Virginia Liberal

Virginia Liberal

Is there any way France would go to war by itself, against Britain's wishes?
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I don't think Napoleon III would risk it if Britain told him no. But if they simply looked the other way yes he would. He was thinking about it around 1862 but their was never enough incentive for him to take the plunge. Also his wife was talking up the Mexican affair at this point.

Could we get a destruction of the Union blockade but no troops committed?
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Yes this is a possible scenario. It is also possible that the French would use ground troops how many is hard to say they sent 30,000* to how many he would send to is up to the reaction of other European powers but I could see another 20,000 to thirty 30,000 being possibly sent. You'd need someone with a little more Knowledge of the French Military of the 1860's than me to answer that part


* Approximate figures
reference
Wikipedia will give you a good summery
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Napoleon_III#Grand_Scheme_for_the_Americas
And Napoleon III and His carnival Empire by John Bierman.
 

wolf_brother

Banned
The French Navy wipes the floor with the USN, and the CSA is likely recognized to boot, meaning that both the blockade has been destroyed and the Confederates have their much sought-after trading partner in Europe.

However, without some sort of ground commitment from another power, the CSA is still screwed. The South simply didn't have the man- or industrial power to compete with the Union, especially considering the South had to have so much of its forces tied down in essentially occupation duties to prevent slave uprisings. The war drags on a little longer, but ultimately the north still wins the ACW. Franco-Yankee tensions mean that French troops stay in Mexico longer though, which likely means no Franco-Prussian War as well.
 

Deleted member 36284

The French regardless of whether they send ground forces will send officers to whip the CSA army into shape, much like in the American Revolution. They will also increase shipments of weapons and supplies. How much good this would do is uncertain, but regardless of whether they send ground troops the Confederates are in a much better position. While the Union still has the upper hand, I could see horrible generals screwing up the war effort for the Northern troops.
 

Lost the game

Banned
as a point good soldiers mean nothing if you're outweighed as heavily as the CSA was by the US. Germany had an excellent army in WWII, however they still got their asses kicked by the Allied forces. Lincoln may have lost the election if a Peace Democrat got the Democratic nomination in 1864, but if McClellan gets the nod as per OTL the latent schizophrenia of that ticket could give Lincoln a squeaker in November. Likely the war, if it continues, continues 'till 1866-67ish, and when it ends the Reconstruction will be harsher. We may see a land-reform campaign, in which an alt-Emancipation Proclamation also says that the land the Plantation-owners holds becomes Government property, to be divided equally among freed slaves, and even poor yeoman farmers if they want their support as well. We may also see a law denying Confederate officers the right to vote in the Reconstructed South.
 

Deleted member 36284

Lost the game said:
as a point good soldiers mean nothing if you're outweighed as heavily as the CSA was by the US. Germany had an excellent army in WWII, however they still got their asses kicked by the Allied forces.
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WWI is a whole different ball game from the ACW. We see in WWI a dominance of trench warfare and competent British and French generals in high roles from the beginning of the war. The Germans were defeated by suffocation of supplies and resources and by massive numbers of US troops that poured into the conflict at the worst time for the Germans.

The Confederates will not be suffocated like in OTL because of the French Navy. The Confederates have far better leaders in the East and will do better if anything there (unless evil butterflies become too involved). In the west defeat is still inevitable given the same Confederate opinion to the importance of events there. Even so Union advance will be slowed by a better Confederate organization and a better understanding of the importance of the theater the French will bring to attention. The Confederates may not win the war win the war without french troops but they have a hell of alot better chance of it.
 

AuroraBorealis

Lost the game said:
as a point good soldiers mean nothing if you're outweighed as heavily as the CSA was by the US. Germany had an excellent army in WWII, however they still got their asses kicked by the Allied forces. Lincoln may have lost the election if a Peace Democrat got the Democratic nomination in 1864, but if McClellan gets the nod as per OTL the latent schizophrenia of that ticket could give Lincoln a squeaker in November. Likely the war, if it continues, continues 'till 1866-67ish, and when it ends the Reconstruction will be harsher. We may see a land-reform campaign, in which an alt-Emancipation Proclamation also says that the land the Plantation-owners holds becomes Government property, to be divided equally among freed slaves, and even poor yeoman farmers if they want their support as well. We may also see a law denying Confederate officers the right to vote in the Reconstructed South.
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Ah but if McClellan should win the squeaker instead.. could we see them come to a negotiated settlement given the greater recognition and strength that the South has, all be it still outclassed by the North. Its already been a long war remember...both sides are tired of the carnage.
 
EnglishCanuck

EnglishCanuck

In this scenario I could see a few thousand French troops being the difference. Deploy them against Union forces and sadly they would probably wipe the floor with those poor boys in blue. Now the initial shock would be fairly devastating for the Union but depending on whose in command they could turn around and zerg rush the French (hey it might work). But the thing is, France will have recognized the Confederates and this would mean Britain has a free hand in trading with the Confederates as well which will be a huge economic boost.

Though I'm not entirely sure on the long term scenario I think it may foster a longer lived second empire (well for a while anyways).
 

Darth_Kiryan

The question would be whether or not the COnfederacy would recognise a French controlled Mexico which Napoleon would ask for in terms of concessions and aid.
 

SenatorChickpea

Would France even go ahead with its attempt to control Mexico if it was at war with the US? I mean, the initial attempt to collect debts would probably happen, but surely not even Napoleon III would decide to deploy massive amounts of troops to the Western Hemisphere in a seperate theatre from the actual war.
 

DJB001

Stars-and-Stripes said:
The French regardless of whether they send ground forces will send officers to whip the CSA army into shape, much like in the American Revolution. They will also increase shipments of weapons and supplies.
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Would the confederates listen to the French, if there weren't troops in theatre to show them the lessons the French learned(?) in the Crimea?

Jumping ahead, what would the French learn from direct involvement in the American war that would benefit them in the next decade or so? Is there truth in the old idea that the europeans learned nothing from the American Civil War.

Weren't the French embarking on a re-organization of the army in the late 1860's?

David
 
Virginia Liberal

Virginia Liberal

It would likely be delayed to later after the ACW is finish if it happens. You might actually see confederate troop used to help conquer Mexico Volunteer brigades at least I dont see the CSA Government doing anything that close to the end of the ACW.
 

DJB001

Some more questions that jump out at me...

Would the Confederates be able to hold New Orleans in a low/no French troops scenario if supplies are coming through?

Is (re-)opening New Orleans sufficient to keep the flow of trade goods going? Or would you also need an Atlantic port like Savannah or Charleston or even Norfolk because of the state of the Confederate transportation network?

Could the French supply enough railroad equipment to jumpstart a Line from New Orleans north?

If the French swept the Union Navy away in the initial engagements, how long would it be before the Union could re-build?
 

amphibulous

Banned
Stars-and-Stripes said:
The French regardless of whether they send ground forces will send officers to whip the CSA army into shape, much like in the American Revolution.
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The Crimean War took place only a few years before - and French performance was lousy. Whereas Wellington said of Scott's performance in Mexico in '46 "His campaign was unsurpassed in military annals." The CSA got most of the officers responsible for this.
 

amphibulous

Banned
DJB001 said:
If the French swept the Union Navy away in the initial engagements, how long would it be before the Union could re-build?
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Building the New Ironsides - the first ocean going USN ironclad - took 10 months. The French had 3 ocean-going ironclads of the La Gloire class, which were roughly comparable to the NS in tonnage and firepower but faster and with a deeper draught. The Gloire's were theoretically bluewater, but they were designed for the Med rather than the Atlantic. The Union built 50 Monitors very rapidly and a NS class ship had the tonnage of 5 of them, so building a small fleet in parallel should have been possible.

With the ironclads on the scene, older warships would have just been targets (unless fast enough to evade the ironclads and act as raiders.)
 
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Virginia Liberal

Virginia Liberal

Is (re-)opening New Orleans sufficient to keep the flow of trade goods going? Or would you also need an Atlantic port like Savannah or Charleston or even Norfolk because of the state of the Confederate transportation network?
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It would probably take an Atlantic port to supply the Eastern theater most likely Wilmington Nc no need to retake it unlike Norfolk.

If the French swept the Union Navy away in the initial engagements, how long would it be before the Union could re-build?
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I'd say they would have a year or year and a half before they are challenged by the North
 

wolf_brother

Banned
amphibulous said:
The Crimean War took place only a few years before - and French performance was lousy. Whereas Wellington said of Scott's performance in Mexico in '46 "His campaign was unsurpassed in military annals." The CSA got most of the officers responsible for this.
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France in 1853 =/= France in '61. The 1860s were the strongest point of the Second Empire.
 

SPJ

What sorts of supplies would the French be willing to give to the CSA in terms of weapons, preserved foods, ammunition, etc.? As well if the French army itself does get involved which high ranking members of staff would be the most likely appointed to aid the CSA and what sorts of tactics would they suggest?

Edit: As well how far into the war were the French likely to offer aid if not right off the bat in 1861? Where their any possibilities of having a French version of the Trent Affair later into the war perhaps?
 
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Armored Diplomacy

Well, there was a similar confrontation after the Union took New Orleans. The treatment of civilians was harsh, but foreign civilians were not exempt, and were even forced to take loyalty oaths. Then, Union troops broke into the Dutch consulate and forced the terrified consul to open his safe. General Butler decided that the French consulate was next, but the consul reminded him that a French warship was moored on the river. And that was the end of that.
 
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