We've argued a bit about this issue in other threads, but I figure it's interesting enough that it deserves a thread all to itself.
Essentially, the question is that, in a TL with a surviving USSR and a recent POD, how effective would a terrorist organization like Al-Qaeda be in launching attacks against the citizens of the USSR.
First of all, my opinion is that the Soviets would probably be hated as much as the Americans are in OTL, if not more than. After all, the Soviets backed those secular socialist Arab regimes in Egypt, Syria, and Iraq that Al-Qaeda hates so much, and let's not forget the whole "godless heathen" thing.
That being said, while Al-Qaeda would have a lot of reasons to go after the Soviets, its effectiveness within the USSR would be quite limited. First of all, internal transit was much, MUCH harder in the Soviet Union than in the west. While Americans and Europeans can freely move about their respective countries with ease, the Soviets had that "internal passport" system, no to mention things like applications to live in certain cities. Furthermore, unlike the United States, a lot of the former Soviet Union isn't that well developed, meaning transport is often centralized to a few rail hubs and airports. A terror cell operating in enemy territory needs to keep mobile, and the Soviets were anything but.
On a related note, just entering the country itself would be a major headache. The Soviets were very much a closed society, and any legal attempt at getting into the country on "business" purposes would involve a rather arduous application and processing period, and, depending on the cover story, the possibility of covert surveillence for some time afterwards.
The second point is communications technology. Along with mobility, groups like Al-Qaeda make plentiful use of mobile world-spanning communications technology, with cell phones and the Internet to name two big examples. My feeling is that in a Soviet Union run along traditional means, both computers and phones will be subjected to the usual scarcities and expense, with the probable result of only becoming in any widespread use would be among the wealthy elite. In addition, I'd expect the Internet to be heavily censored, and for most mobile phone calls to be monitored.
Another hurdle would be acquiring the materials needed for an attack. However, given the size of the Soviet counter-economy, I feel that any terrorists would be able to acquire what they need, though I am tempted to believe that getting ahold of arms and explosives might be a problem.
Finally, there is the paranoia factor. The Soviets operated under an atmosphere of suspicion that would be completely foreign to any westerner. You can find accounts of westerners who were harassed by local citizens when they tried to take pictures of things as innocuous as bridges or gas stations. Look at any old pictures of landmarks in the USSR, and the one thing that will strike you is the sheer number of armed guards about the place. In addition, you have the KGB to deal with, an organization renouned for suspecting everything. Compared to this, the FBI and domestic security organizations in the USA are just a light breeze.
While I think that, given enough motivation, luck, and cleverness, a terrorist organization could launch a 9/11 type attack against the Soviet Union, I think that the various points I have outlined above would make it even more difficult than an attack in America or Europe (or Japan or Australia, I should mention too).
Thoughts?
Essentially, the question is that, in a TL with a surviving USSR and a recent POD, how effective would a terrorist organization like Al-Qaeda be in launching attacks against the citizens of the USSR.
First of all, my opinion is that the Soviets would probably be hated as much as the Americans are in OTL, if not more than. After all, the Soviets backed those secular socialist Arab regimes in Egypt, Syria, and Iraq that Al-Qaeda hates so much, and let's not forget the whole "godless heathen" thing.
That being said, while Al-Qaeda would have a lot of reasons to go after the Soviets, its effectiveness within the USSR would be quite limited. First of all, internal transit was much, MUCH harder in the Soviet Union than in the west. While Americans and Europeans can freely move about their respective countries with ease, the Soviets had that "internal passport" system, no to mention things like applications to live in certain cities. Furthermore, unlike the United States, a lot of the former Soviet Union isn't that well developed, meaning transport is often centralized to a few rail hubs and airports. A terror cell operating in enemy territory needs to keep mobile, and the Soviets were anything but.
On a related note, just entering the country itself would be a major headache. The Soviets were very much a closed society, and any legal attempt at getting into the country on "business" purposes would involve a rather arduous application and processing period, and, depending on the cover story, the possibility of covert surveillence for some time afterwards.
The second point is communications technology. Along with mobility, groups like Al-Qaeda make plentiful use of mobile world-spanning communications technology, with cell phones and the Internet to name two big examples. My feeling is that in a Soviet Union run along traditional means, both computers and phones will be subjected to the usual scarcities and expense, with the probable result of only becoming in any widespread use would be among the wealthy elite. In addition, I'd expect the Internet to be heavily censored, and for most mobile phone calls to be monitored.
Another hurdle would be acquiring the materials needed for an attack. However, given the size of the Soviet counter-economy, I feel that any terrorists would be able to acquire what they need, though I am tempted to believe that getting ahold of arms and explosives might be a problem.
Finally, there is the paranoia factor. The Soviets operated under an atmosphere of suspicion that would be completely foreign to any westerner. You can find accounts of westerners who were harassed by local citizens when they tried to take pictures of things as innocuous as bridges or gas stations. Look at any old pictures of landmarks in the USSR, and the one thing that will strike you is the sheer number of armed guards about the place. In addition, you have the KGB to deal with, an organization renouned for suspecting everything. Compared to this, the FBI and domestic security organizations in the USA are just a light breeze.
While I think that, given enough motivation, luck, and cleverness, a terrorist organization could launch a 9/11 type attack against the Soviet Union, I think that the various points I have outlined above would make it even more difficult than an attack in America or Europe (or Japan or Australia, I should mention too).
Thoughts?