9/11 Doesn't Happen

ZombieSlayer54

Two potential scenarios, here:

1. Through some insane, ASB-levels of luck, all of the hijackers are caught at airport security. They reveal their plots and their connections to Al Qaeda.

2. The 9/11 attacks are called off, nobody finds out about the plans. There MAY be future attacks, but no more for at least a year.

How do you think things will develop in either scenario?
 

HMS Erin

Banned
No Afganistan invasion, and much less support for an Iraq invasion, if one happens. Bush doesn't get reelected. The U.S. economy does better without long and destructive wars. But 9/11 was a massive enough event the butterflies cannot be seen through.
 

freivolk

Republicans lose majority in congress in 2002, but Bush get reelected 2004 with a larger majority, but with a really low voter turn-out.
 

hcallega

There are many impacts that no 9/11 would have on the world, and America in particular. MSNBC's Up To Early did an excellent piece were they assembled news clips from 9/10/01. It was quite moving to see how damn innocent America was. We were still in our 90s-era Pax Americana. Overnight we became a nation at war and consumed by fear. If 9/11 is written out of the American story, this lull remains for the near future. In the short term, the Democrats retake Congress in 2002, but lose in 2004 as in our timeline. The Democratic nominee is probably not John Kerry, as his appeal was based in a very palatable opposition to the war combined with immense, and very personal, foreign policy experience. The likely nominee is Joe Lieberman, Tom Daschle, or some other centrist. Bush uses social issues and a relatively strong economy to win by a wider margin than in 2000. The Bush Presidency is irrevocably altered without the 9/11 attacks. His most memorable moments would be the tax cuts, No Child Left Behind, and quite possibly immigration reform. His legacy would be limited to his Supreme Court appointees, and the economic collapse which would not be quite as bad.
 

TxCoatl1970

What Callega Said Plus

9/11 is such a watershed. As an American, I feel we fundamentally failed to deal with it in any kind of rational way, beggared our country, bankrupted whatever moral capital we had abroad and wrought all kinds of havoc in the process to absolutely zero benefit.

If 9/11 doesn't happen, well, status quo rolls on, I guess. Tech bubble pops in 2001, along with the Enron scandal, we have trouble finding economic winners Stateside, we have more money to plow into the real estate bubble which still pops 2007-ish, barring ASB-intervention- say Eliot Spitzer being nominated Attorney General or somesuch and going after Wall Street with fire and sword.

Too many people wanted to make money while the music was going to make any serious fuss about it. Let the Wall Street bankers make their boodle so I can flip a few more houses. Woot!

One butterfly effect- without all the FBI and other LE resources sucked into terrorism, a much more robust and thorough response to white collar crime identity theft etc leads to it being prosecuted like kidnapping and an increase in computer security and much needed reform of the credit-reporting process.

Airline travel most likely would suck a lot less. Between fuel costs and all the hassles of security enacted since 9/11, airlines have had to treat us more and more like cattle than customers to make a profit.

IDK if the media would be even more trivialized or not.
 
Jay Roosevelt

Jay Roosevelt

I don't think Bush gets re-elected personally. Maybe Hillary Clinton runs, but how about John Edwards? Maybe Howard Dean?

Economy would likely be much stronger, though probably still weakened by the same type of wall street/bank activities.
 

John Fredrick Parker

Donor
Ah yes, it's been ten years -- a very appropriate time to reflect on the event, and consider an ATL without it.

I agree Democrats come back 2002 (and likely keep it at least the next six years), Bush wins 2004, immigration reform is a lot more likely, and that we don't see wars in Afghanistan or Iraq (at least not regime change levels). The Patriot Act and the whole torture debate are also most likely a moot point. So where does that leave the rest?

Well to start, the 2003 additions to the tax cuts probably don't happen -- combined with the absence of the wars, this is going to mean a lot more revenue coming in than OTL, so the deficits likely aren't nearly as big. Given that the National Guard won't be doing anything else, I can see the response to Hurricane Katrina being smoother. Not to say all the big disasters would be averted -- I'm fairly sure the economy would still enter crisis mode circa 2008, seeing as I can't think of any reason the housing bubble, low interest rates, et el, wouldn't still happen.

And that brings us to the election of 2008 -- seeing how different the dynamics of 2004 are from OTL, I don't see Obama rising so meteorically as a national figure, meaning Hillary may well see a far clearer road to the the nomination. Due in large measure to the aforementioned extra revenue, she would likely push a response that is a lot more aggressive, leading to a milder recession. TTL likely doesn't see anything close to the Tea Party movement, or at least not at the same scale.

So that's a rough ATL -- anybody want to guess what the news would be today, ten years after the PoD?
 
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d32123

Banned
John Fredrick Parker said:
So that's a rough ATL -- anybody want to guess what the news would be today, ten years after the PoD?
Click to expand...

Um

Hillary Clinton is President after winning a close election in 2008 because the Great Recession isn't so Great and we aren't fighting in two wars.

However, the economy still hasn't recovered and she is facing strong Republican opposition for 2012 and the Republicans control the House but not as strongly.

Saddam Hussein is still in power and the Taliban still control Afghanistan.

All of our troops who have died in OTL in Iraq and Afghanisan are still alive along with all of the people who died in OTL 9/11 obviously.

Arab Spring gets butterflied away.

Tea Party isn't as major a player in American politics.

Maybe there's actual immigration reform.

idk
 

Enigmajones

I think Bush looks to start a conflict. Without the Afganistan War I was thinking that he might try to cause trouble with North Korea.
 

d32123

Banned
Another idea is that maybe a terrorist attack on a huge scale was inevitable. Maybe if 9/11 hadn't happened another attack would have been attempted because security wouldn't have been as tight?
 

NSeven

Without the war on terroe and Iraq, I assume the RAH-66 Comanche would get in service. And other weapons for conventional warfare get more attention than OTL aswell.
 
1.36

1.36

I think Bush would then do what he had always intended to do, be a domestic president. In that respect, he would be WAY more popular than in OTL, he'd get re-elected and if the economy doesn't crash in 2008, McCain gets the nomination but doesn't feel compelled to pick Palin, which means that today McCain wold be President. The Dems would probably pick up a few more seats in 2002 and 2006 than OTL as well.. I actually think the partisanship of OTL wouldn't be there in this TL. The Tea Party would probably not exist either, and Obama wold likely be a nobody or still a Senator from Illinois. Hillary may be looking for the election in 2012 as well...

In other news, the nation has a MUCH better set of 10 years, the economy would be MUCH better, no wars to increase the deficit, and in a sense, the 90s (as in post-cold war prosperity and peace) would probably continue into the 2000s....

All in all, a much happier and better world. :(
 

Orville_third

Banned
The Cheney Energy Task Force was looking at Iraq's oil. On the other hand, people might be more likely to look at Iraq skeptically without 9/11.
Obama would have still trounced Keyes, but he would not have been named the keynote speaker in 2004.
Were Clinton to run, she'd likely face a lot of right-wing media attacks. (Lest we forget, before Obama, she was one of the major hate figures on the right. Of course, her support of invading Iraq in 2003 (to say nothing of attacking in 1998) did change things in her favor.)
I personally think that with people less concerned over borders and security, we might see immigration reform, and Hispanics taking a greater role in politics and society. Perhaps Bill Richardson could win in 2008? (I have him winning in a TL I'm planning.)
Finally there would be numerous pop culture butterflies, some of which I've touched on. (I never grow tired of repeating that no 9/11 means no Dan DiDio ruining DC.)
 

Enigmajones

Lord Grattan said:
Not Bush so much, but Cheney definitly. RE: North Koerea - does applying international pressure = causing trouble?
Click to expand...

Yes applying international pressure and pushing the South Koreans and Japanese to be aggressive one their territorial waters. Basically make the North Koreans uneasy and then use that paranoia to give the US a war to fight. Defending their allies in Asia against totalitarianism. And the Second Korean War could turn out better in the long run.
 

Orville_third

Banned
NoOneFamous said:
He still gets killed by Katrina
Click to expand...
Unless he loses in 2004. Some of Bush's mistakes would likely still be there- nominating people with no emergency management experience, not declaring NOLA a disaster area before the storm (Not to mention keeping MR-GO open and failing to reinforce the levees (though in this TL, no Iraq war means more domestic CoE funding...), though both might happen with a Democrat too...). In addition, the lack of resources of Louisiana and Mississippi (and Alabama to a lesser extent) are still a problem, though at least the National Guard would be there.
 
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