AHC: A Mote of Dust - Lexell's Comet Strikes the Earth July 1 1770

On the 1st of July 1770 Lexell's Comet (Wikipedia, Cometography) passed around 0.0146-0.0152au behind the Earth in it's orbit.

The challenge I am proposing is that instead the comet strikes the Earth on this date. Anyone who takes this challenge has to describe both the short and long term consequences (likely to be extreme) to the various major powers of this event.

The first condition I am laying is that whoever takes up this challenge works out, where the impact would have taken place, whether over land or sea and in which hemisphere.

The second condition is that for the purposes of using the impact effects calculator (Link), the size, density and mass of comet 81P/Wild (Wikipedia) are used.
 
I thought I'd run the Earth Impact effects program myself just to see what would happen in America (or Europe) if the comet struck land in either of those places, the observer distance I chose is slightly greater than the width of the Atlantic

The results are below:

Earth Impact Effects Program
Robert Marcus, H. Jay Melosh, and Gareth Collins

Please note: the results below are estimates based on current (limited) understanding of the impact process and come with large uncertainties; they should be used with caution, particularly in the case of peculiar input parameters. All values are given to three significant figures but this does not reflect the precision of the estimate. For more information about the uncertainty associated with our calculations and a full discussion of this program, please refer to this article

Your Inputs:
Distance from Impact: 3000.00 km ( = 1860.00 miles )
Projectile diameter: 4.00 km ( = 2.48 miles )
Projectile Density: 600 kg/m3
Impact Velocity: 51.00 km per second ( = 31.70 miles per second )
Impact Angle: 45 degrees
Target Density: 2500 kg/m3
Target Type: Sedimentary Rock

Energy:
Energy before atmospheric entry: 2.61 x 1022 Joules = 6.25 x 106 MegaTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth during the last 4 billion years is 1.9 x 107years

Major Global Changes:
The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass.
The impact does not make a noticeable change in the tilt of Earth's axis (< 5 hundreths of a degree).
The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.

Crater Dimensions:
What does this mean?


Transient Crater Diameter: 29.5 km ( = 18.3 miles )
Transient Crater Depth: 10.4 km ( = 6.48 miles )

Final Crater Diameter: 46 km ( = 28.6 miles )
Final Crater Depth: 937 meters ( = 3070 feet )
The crater formed is a complex crater.
The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 162 km3 = 38.9 miles3
Roughly half the melt remains in the crater, where its average thickness is 237 meters ( = 779 feet ).

Thermal Radiation:
The fireball is below the horizon. There is no direct thermal radiation.

Seismic Effects:
The major seismic shaking will arrive approximately 10 minutes after impact.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 9.1
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 3000 km:

III. Felt quite noticeably by persons indoors, especially on upper floors of buildings. Many people do not recognize it as an earthquake. Standing motor cars may rock slightly. Vibrations similar to the passing of a truck.

IV. Felt indoors by many, outdoors by few during the day. At night, some awakened. Dishes, windows, doors disturbed; walls make cracking sound. Sensation like heavy truck striking building. Standing motor cars rocked noticeably.


Ejecta:
The ejecta will arrive approximately 17 minutes after the impact.
At your position there is a fine dusting of ejecta with occasional larger fragments
Average Ejecta Thickness: 250 microns ( = 9.85 thousandths of an inch )
Mean Fragment Diameter: 37.1 microns ( = 1.46 thousandths of an inch )


Air Blast:
The air blast will arrive approximately 2.53 hours after impact.
Peak Overpressure: 4370 Pa = 0.0437 bars = 0.621 psi
Max wind velocity: 10.1 m/s = 22.6 mph
Sound Intensity: 73 dB (Loud as heavy traffic)

If however the comet was to land in the middle of the Atlantic the whole picture changes:

Earth Impact Effects Program
Robert Marcus, H. Jay Melosh, and Gareth Collins

Please note: the results below are estimates based on current (limited) understanding of the impact process and come with large uncertainties; they should be used with caution, particularly in the case of peculiar input parameters. All values are given to three significant figures but this does not reflect the precision of the estimate. For more information about the uncertainty associated with our calculations and a full discussion of this program, please refer to this article

Your Inputs:
Distance from Impact: 1500.00 km ( = 932.00 miles )
Projectile diameter: 4.00 km ( = 2.48 miles )
Projectile Density: 600 kg/m3
Impact Velocity: 51.00 km per second ( = 31.70 miles per second )
Impact Angle: 45 degrees
Target Density: 1000 kg/m3
Target Type: Liquid water of depth 2.7 km ( = 1.7 miles ), over crystalline rock.

Energy:
Energy before atmospheric entry: 2.61 x 1022 Joules = 6.25 x 106 MegaTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth during the last 4 billion years is 1.9 x 107years

Major Global Changes:
The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass.
The impact does not make a noticeable change in the tilt of Earth's axis (< 5 hundreths of a degree).
The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.

Crater Dimensions:


The crater opened in the water has a diameter of 47 km ( = 29.2 miles ).

For the crater formed in the seafloor:
Transient Crater Diameter: 11.4 km ( = 7.11 miles )
Transient Crater Depth: 4.05 km ( = 2.51 miles )

Final Crater Diameter: 15.8 km ( = 9.81 miles )
Final Crater Depth: 679 meters ( = 2230 feet )
The crater formed is a complex crater.
The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 2.47 km3 = 0.592 miles3
Roughly half the melt remains in the crater, where its average thickness is 24 meters ( = 78.6 feet ).

Thermal Radiation:

The fireball is below the horizon. There is no direct thermal radiation.

Seismic Effects:

The major seismic shaking will arrive approximately 5 minutes after impact.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 7.9
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 1500 km:

I. Not felt except by a very few under especially favorable conditions.

II. Felt only by a few persons at rest, especially on upper floors of buildings.


Ejecta:

The ejecta will arrive approximately 10.6 minutes after the impact.
At your position there is a fine dusting of ejecta with occasional larger fragments
Average Ejecta Thickness: 45.4 microns ( = 1.79 thousandths of an inch )
Mean Fragment Diameter: 77.3 microns ( = 3.05 thousandths of an inch )


Air Blast:

The air blast will arrive approximately 1.26 hours after impact.
Peak Overpressure: 11800 Pa = 0.118 bars = 1.68 psi
Max wind velocity: 26.5 m/s = 59.4 mph
Sound Intensity: 81 dB (Loud as heavy traffic)
Damage Description:


Glass windows will shatter.

Tsunami Wave:

The impact-generated tsunami wave arrives approximately 2.6 hours after impact.

Tsunami wave amplitude is between: 42.3 meters ( = 139.0 feet) and 84.6 meters ( = 278.0 feet).
 
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I've been trying to remind myself of the mass of the Hamner-Brown comet in Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle's Lucifer's Hammer. I can't find my copy; it is possible to search parts of the book online but it's frustrating; 50/50 the number I want--Hamner/Brown's mass--is on one of the hidden pages! I did come upon the "Hot Fudge Sundae" lecture and they go with a billion and a half tons there--but IIRC the segment closes with saying "Hamner-Brown's bigger."

81P/Wild is estimated at 2.3x10^13 kg, which is (in American/French terms if not British) 23 billion tons.

So, while I don't know why you guess Lexell's would be in that same ballpark, it seems clear that if it does hit, it will mess the Earth up more than Hamner-Brown does in the novel.

I generally disagree, sometimes violently and with disgust, with Pournelle's politics at all levels and I used to think he was a bad influence on Niven. (Nowadays I figure Niven went looking for that kind of bad influence!) The book is objectionable in a number of ways. (I liked it well enough in junior high school though:eek:) But one thing I trust these guys on is their math. Whereas, while I also trust the astronomers who crafted the impact calculator, I am not so sure the calculator does a fair job of computing big impacts. I'm sure it's great for the little ones, but the big ones all come out the same. At no point does it say "the Earth's biosphere is shrouded in a layer of mist and dust that won't let significant sunlight through for 3 years" nor does it say "the hot craters on the sea floor vaporize x gigatonnes of water which rains down on the hemisphere." In short I think it sort of underestimates huge elements of the impact's aftereffects. Or ignores them completely.

So if it turns out the part of Hamner-Brown that did hit Earth in the novel is a lot more than 23 gigatons, then I suppose Lexall, assuming it is in the same range of mass as 81P/Wild, would do somewhat less damage than happens in Lucifer's Hammer. One thing I do recall from that book though is that actually only a fraction of the solid matter of the comet hit--because it wasn't one solid mass but a loose swarm and a lot of the core matter swung right past Earth and got scattered, to reconstitute again farther along in its orbit, for the most part--presumably some got ejected completely. So presumably the same thing will be true of Lexall--much of it will miss. But that part that hits will hurt a lot, in part because it won't all whack one impact crater--it will be hundreds of hits, all over the Earth. That spreads out the damage considerably!

Note that the Dinosaur Killer was supposed to be a solid, single impact. A comet is a much messier thing.

Anyway if something like Hamner-Brown hits Earth in 1770, I guess that is pretty much reset on agricultural civilization. Well, I daresay the fraction of humanity that survives will at least remember how to farm, though many will find, if they can survive the initial months of very seriously messed-up weather, that they don't have to anymore--global population density will on average be much closer to gatherer-hunter levels and people probably will often find they prefer to live that way. But here and there, people will still farm, and rebuild cities, and someone will remember enough about writing to revive written learning. I suppose surviving Early Modern Europeans will generally at least hang on to their Bibles and retain basic literacy that way. But the general population will be set very far back and it will be a long time, many centuries I guess, before anyone rebuilds the level of culture comparable to Early Modern Europe or Imperial China. And maybe not in the same places. Quite a few places will be scoured by tsunamis, some will actually be cratered, all the water vapor blasted into the air may tip major climatological balances, perhaps restarting glaciation or at any rate causing major diversions of ocean currents. If it tends to restore itself pretty much to current climatological conditions--so much the worse for people trying to rebuild their lives, because it will deviate for quite some time and until it finally settles, ecosystems will be moving targets!

So I'm guessing, just wildly, maybe about now, 2011 or so, would be when some society somewhere might begin to pick up where the more advanced ones left off in 1770. 2300 or so before there are spaceships and computers and penicillin and all that.
-----
I found another online source for the book, one that also cuts off but includes the whole "Hot Fudge Sundae" clip; Hamner-Brown is about "ten times" bigger than the 1.5 or so gigatonnes they were goofing around with. So it is in the same ballpark, and the damage would presumably be similar. That is to say a global catastrophe--people would surely survive and there would be successors, but as I said, it would take centuries to crawl back to where they were before the comet strikes.
 
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With the Russian Airburst still fresh in everyone's minds I thought I'd bump this thread as a restart.
 
This seems extremely fascinating to me. I hope the thread thrives so I can get some good reading.

Related: Someone referenced a book where something similar happened? What book is it and is it worth checking out?
 
If it hits in the Atlantic, the American colonies are going to really hard-hit, given how close to the shore everything was at the time.
 
Related: Someone referenced a book where something similar happened? What book is it and is it worth checking out?
Lucifer's Hammer by Niven and Pournelle. The plot isn't worth bothering about, but it's got some very vivid images of the aftermath of a large impact.
 
Lucifer's Hammer by Niven and Pournelle. The plot isn't worth bothering about, but it's got some very vivid images of the aftermath of a large impact.

More to the point, I believe much of the imagery is based on serious research.

I'm not absolutely sure, for instance, that it is the consensus today that comets, at least when they are as near to the Sun as Earth is, are a cluster of smaller objects swarming around the nominal "point" the object is located at, on the average. They might be more solid than we thought in the 1970s, before any space probes had ever got a good close look at one.

But I'd guess 50/50 they are indeed that diffuse, and that's mixed news as far as Earth goes in case of impact. Because on one hand, Earth won't get hit with all the mass; on the other, what fraction does hit will be spread out in dozens to thousands of separate impacts, depending on how large a fraction of the number of bodies making up the comet head do hit Earth. If comet heads are as diffuse as they thought back then, then even if the center of mass is square on the center, some of it will still stream past; how much does depends on how diffuse the cluster is. But the more spread out it is, the more damage the mass that does hit does because there won't be one big crater, there will be lots and each one does more harm than the same mass would as part of just one.

As someone upthread a couple years ago noted, even if the comet were all one solid body it wouldn't crack open the crust or seriously affect either Earth's orbit or rotation. It would be very bad news for anything nearby and as I said here a long time ago, I don't trust the calculator to properly estimate the degree of damage to the surface ecosystem due to atmospheric shock and still less due to vaporized water and the disruption of weather we'd expect--the major damage done in Lucifer's Hammer was due to water, first the masses flash-vaporized in the impacts, which generally punch right through to the sea floor, and then even greater masses of sea water vaporized as the ocean pours onto white-hot liquid rock. Of course the water cools the melted ocean floor patches pretty fast but it does so by being vaporized and streaming as high-pressure steam up into the stratosphere, where it flows away as a steam hurricane (maybe a reversed hurricane if hurricanes generally are low-pressure in their centers, so the winds spiral in the opposite direction). A portion of these storms make their way over land, and drop the massive oversaturation of water there, making for a spectacular Deluge. There's also a lot of dust from both land and sea impacts, and so when the massive rains finally peter out there's a Fimbulwinter due to the atmosphere being more opaque for some years.

I've already guessed what I think would happen to the world in 1700; it almost doesn't matter if the impact is a near miss with only a relative few of the components of the comet hitting, or it hits square on. The challenge the OP gave, to try and figure where on the globe it would hit, is almost meaningless; parts will hit almost anywhere, as the Earth turns and as objects are perturbed around the Earth by its gravity. It might be possible to estimate a central zone that gets more impacts and a shadow zone that is mostly sheltered, but the damage the comet does is pretty much global no matter where the direct impacts are, since it is climatic. A very light near-miss might leave centers of civilization intact though damaged, a heavy dead-on hit might come close to wiping out life on Earth though it probably won't, entirely--and if anything survives I daresay some humans would be among them. It seems reasonable to me to split the difference and say that most of civilization is wiped out, due to the failure of crops everywhere--first they take a terrible hit in the form of death toll from the immediate Deluge, then the survivors of that wind up mostly starving to death and the cities are abandoned; those who make it through the first year will be living in a disrupted ecosystem where new farms are hard to establish, but will probably be in such low numbers that they can survive by gathering and hunting, and a big portion of surviving humanity may simply switch back to living in such a fashion for centuries to come. By sheer chance, some agricultural centers will be re-established, but these will be too small and few to sustain a serious level of civilization. They might, however, retain books and even literacy, and so be on something of a fast track for rebuilding civilization again. As a wild guess I said that maybe by now, several centuries on, things would be as they were in 1699, but actually I think that must be wrong unless the impacts were quite light--they'd be different. There might be individual city-states or kingdoms rather comparable to stuff that existed after 1000 CE, but they'd be islands in a wilderness of low-population density gatherer-hunter peoples who will not be rushing to join civilization, nor allowing themselves to be displaced easily. They may or may not be interested in trade. They won't be interested in joining anyone's army.

So the civilized places will tend to be rather ugly, being organized around gradually poaching wider lands for their expanding settled population by means of cultural genocide, getting embroiled in frontier wars with gatherer-hunter bands who live there, taking them as slaves and breaking them to a servile role on the farms and in the towns, and taking their land. Maybe some of this process will take the form of bands getting induced into the farm/urban system by means of trade goods and their gradual recruitment as fur trappers and the like and as scouts against other bands; such peoples might retain some ethnic identity and political rights. Or might not. Eventually one urban center's sphere will brush up against another and we probably will see both trade and war between them.

Maybe some will go into ocean exploration and trade, especially if knowledge of how to build 1700-type ships has been retained in some library and a boat-building culture revives soon after the Deluge. But note that in addition to flooding from rain, the impacts will also devastate shore areas especially due to tsunamis, and it will be an odd chance indeed that preserves any seacoast people well enough to be among the handful of post-impact civilizations. It seems more likely to me that the arts of navigation will have to be reinvented from scratch, for the most part, even if there are books that describe an advanced ship in detail, because those books won't describe the crafts of basic shipbuilding that are common knowledge at the docks of major maritime peoples pre-impact. Again books that are dedicated to recording the arts of navigation will probably describe in loving detail advanced techniques of navigation but won't mention the stuff every sailor learns his first weeks at sea. A society that preserves such books and then develops a maritime branch will probably leap forward dramatically eventually, but first there will be generations going out on boats that aren't much better than the most primitive rafts or canoes, until they get the hang of it and start understanding what those old books were talking about.
 
Well, I went to "the Genocide" AKA Wikipedia on comets after posting this, and while it is not entirely clear, it does seem that nowadays we know that their cores are more compact than thought in the 1970s. Anyway we've sent probes by and the discussion is all about the core bodies, which have a layered structure; the surfaces are dark, presumably because lighter volatiles have been cooked off and the heavier molecules left behind have been cooked into even heavier ones, making a dark tarry outer layer that absorbs heat, but also I suppose forming a sort of outer coating, so more volatiles erupt sporadically like geysers from within. Certainly the article mentions how these geysers do eject lots of "rocks" but there is no discussion of how much the solid mass of the comet core is the one big central one and how much it is orbiting smaller objects. It would seem though that they are not clusters of many roughly equal chunks held together by gravity, but the central one does dominate considerably. It would be nice to know if it forms the overwhelming majority of the mass, say 90 percent or more, or if the cumulative mass of the small rocks rivals it.

Also as a comet approaches a big planet tidal forces will tend to break it up, considering that heated volatiles inside are at some pressure the tidal stresses may result in it breaking up earlier than gravity alone would lead us to expect, as it explodes along fault lines driven by the released gases. However, in this case I wouldn't expect the fragments to disperse very far, since comets are moving rather fast and as it falls in toward Earth it would pick up speed, limiting the time for the fragments to spread apart.

So, if comet cores are dominated by one big object and that object has only limited time to break up as it approaches Earth, we would after all get one big impact, or rather several clustered around one center. There would also be a peppering of small impacts from the numerous but small associated orbiting debris; many of these would be so small they'd burn up in the atmosphere before hitting the surface but some would get through, in a range from small meteorites to big ones. These would be scattered over a greater range but centered on the main impact, I'd think.

Again though, the damage done would be global I'd think. If the big objects all hit on land, I guess that the region would be largely cleansed of life and the Earth as a whole would get lots of dust in the atmosphere, leading to a Fimbulwinter and crop failures and a dark age as mass starvation devastates civilization. It would be more likely though some or all of them would hit the oceans, and instead we'd get the Deluge which would take civilization down more quickly, followed by an agonizing few years or decade for the survivors, though I suppose any who live through the first year can probably get by after that.

It makes the exercise of figuring out just where the comet would hit less pointless than I assumed. It matters a lot if it hits in the middle of Eurasia or North America versus Africa versus Australia or South America. But again odds are it hits the oceans at least somewhat. If by odd chance it hits mostly land, it matters in which hemisphere since quite possibly the dust will mainly be confined to one or the other, thus a Eurasian or North American impact that takes down civilization in most of the world might leave outposts challenged but not destroyed in South America and South Africa; vice versa a Southern Hemisphere impact in say Australia might leave the great civilized centers in disarray and devastating hardship, but essentially intact a decade later. But note that there isn't much land to hit in the Southern Hemisphere and I really don't know how much the shotgun footprint of a comet core breaking up as it approaches Earth would spread, it might well spread past the areas of these small continents and be sure to involve some major ocean strikes.

I think trying to estimate where and when the thing would have hit Earth is a mug's game, way beyond me anyway; probably there is a wide range of solutions and we can pretty much put it anywhere we like. The comet did in fact miss the Earth, by four times the distance to the Moon. To guess how big a perturbation would be needed to shift its trajectory over to where it would hit, I'd have to know a lot more about the orbit it did follow, and estimate what it would take to shift it. Since the locations of the other planets are also given, it would not be a matter of changing their contributions--it is a matter of an ASB shifting it when it was way out in deep space. Assuming said ASB wanted to accomplish the result with minimal shifting, that puts some constraint on it and indicates a limited range of angles and times it would approach. Anyone undertaking that challenge should remember, the actual approach to Earth will be bent by Earth's own gravity!
 
I'm not so sure that the tsunami of an ocean impact will be quite so detrimental to our collective understanding of shipbuilding & navigation. While any Atlantic impact will send out a (nearly) 300' wave to the Atlantic coasts-yeah, goodbye everything with an ocean view, there-I would imagine that such areas as the Mediterrenian Sea and the North American Great Lakes would be unbothered, especially if the impact is more South Atlantic than North. Perhaps the North Sea might escape sufficiently, too, with the British Isles as a breakwater (how would London fare as opposed to, say, Antwerp?). There would also be many ships/sailors at sea, unaffected by the passing wave.

A couple of images that come to mind of such a cataclysmic event at that date:
  • The reactions of sailors returning from their voyages to devastated homelands, of which they were unaware. This is the time of voyages of discovery to the Pacific Ocean. Would this be seen as some form of Divine warning against such explorations?
  • How would you like to be the poor amatuer astronomer that decided to climb to the top of Gibralter to make observations of the phenomenon as it dropped below the horizon...and, some hours later, watch as the sea level suddenly began inexplicably climbing until it almost reached you at the pinnacle of the Rock...and then, receding, left you alone? Bad feeling...
 
By sheer chance, some agricultural centers will be re-established, but these will be too small and few to sustain a serious level of civilization. They might, however, retain books and even literacy, and so be on something of a fast track for rebuilding civilization again.

A Canticle for Leibowitz... without the cycles.
 

katchen

Banned
Check out the Wikipedia references for Younger Dryas and Younger Dryas Impact Hypothesis. The Younger Dryas was a period of sharp global cooling in which the Atlantic Conveyor was totally disrupted and glacial conditions returned to Earth for aproximately 1300 years before they abruptly ended. One of the hypotheses for the cause of the Younger Dryas is an asteroid impact, which, so the hypothesis goes, hit atop one of the melting ice sheets. The Younger Dryas is thought to have forced the origin of agriculture by the Natufian Culture in the Middle East.
The Younger Dryas occurred roughly 13,000 years BP.
 
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