'A Liberal German Empire? Not While I'm King of Prussia!' - an 1848 TL.

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This is my latest TL. I've been wanting to do a TL with an 1848 PoD for a long time, but I hadn't gotten around to it until now. I purposely avoided reading Aussie Guy's TL 'Ich bin Ein Frankfurter' which is based on a similar PoD AFAIK. I didn't want his ideas to influence my own and I certainly don't want to be accused of plagiarizing his work. I hope everyone likes what I've written so far. I split the first chapter in two because of its size. Enjoy;).





‘A Liberal German Empire? Not while I’m King of Prussia!’



Chapter I: The Revolutions of 1848 and the Unification of the German and Italian Nation States, 1848 – 1861.


The year 1848 would prove to be a very pivotal year in European and world history with the breaking out of the revolutions in Europe and the unifications of Italy and Germany. Such a wide variety of factors contributed to the Revolutions of 1848 that it is difficult to see them as a single, coherent event even if historians of today widely use the denominator Revolutions of 1848, a term that has remained in popular up until even today. Technological advances were revolutionizing the life of the working classes, but little in terms of wage increases or political rights followed. Society was rapidly transforming in the first half of the nineteenth century with liberals and radical politicians agitating for different state forms and ideas like popular liberalism, nationalism, socialism and communism rising up. Large sections of society were discontented with royal absolutism or near-absolutism as shown by an uprising in Austrian Galicia of the Polish nobility in 1846 which was only crushed after the peasantry rose up against said nobles. Similarly, Prussia experienced democratic uprisings in Greater Poland in the same year. The middle and lower working classes wanted reforms with the former providing an impetus while the latter served mostly as cannon fodder for the middle classes. The industrialization had done nothing to improve living standards for workers who toiled for thirteen to fifteen hours a day for little pay. In the meantime, traditional artisans had seen their guilds and therefore their livelihoods disappear while the small, but wealthy industrial bourgeoisie got wealthier as time went by. The rural areas weren’t much better off with the aristocracy still owning most of the land. Here – so it seemed – nothing had changed since before the French revolution of 1789. The peasantry was bound to the nobles who controlled the land and therefore had status and power. Also, a potato blight hit, starting in Belgium and causing a subsistence crisis in Northern Europe. While reforms ameliorated some of feudalism’s hardships, the new socio-economic system of capitalism wasn’t everything either in the 1840s. Increasing population concentration also led to epidemics of cholera and other diseases. While the lower classes demanded a better living, the middle classes with their influence demanded suffrage and democracy. Unrest was brewing in Europe.

In the German states, nationalism was on the rise, especially after the Rhineland Crisis of 1840 when it seemed that France would invade the Rhineland, leading to widespread nationalist sentiment. The Danish declaration that they would invade Schleswig-Holstein also aroused widespread nationalist sentiment. German nationalism was shown in the creation of the Prussia-Hessen Customs Union which by 1834 had grown into a Zollverein. This Zollverein achieved a single set of weights and one currency for its member states. Events in France following the abdication and flight of King Louis-Philippe would affect the German states as well. In Prussia, arguably the most powerful German state besides Austria, crowds took to the streets, overwhelming the Prussian King Friedrich Wilhelm IV who caved in to their demands of a constitution, freedom of the press and democratic elections. In Frankfurt, a Constitutional National Assembly was formed in the St. Paul’s Cathedral to write up a liberal constitution for all of Germany, but they proved unable to make any decision on behalf of the whole of Germany and degenerated into a mere debating association while King Friedrich Wilhelm IV unilaterally imposed a monarchist constitution on Prussia and reneged on his word. The only legislation of any importance passed by the Frankfurt Assembly was the creation of a German fleet or Reichsflotte. Furthermore, the Frankfurt Assembly was too divided between Prussia supporters, Austria supporters, Catholics, Protestants, Kleindeutschland supporters and Grossdeutschland supporters. The Assembly had the theoretical military support of Prussia which, however, made them a ploy in the hands of the Prussians. In addition to this, Von Peucker, who they had made their minister of war, announced he would only use his army on Prussia’s behalf. When they offered the crown of a united Germany to Friedrich Wilhelm IV, he initially refused. Despite the weakness of the Frankfurt Assembly, however, and the opposition of the staunch Prussian King, his hand would be forced by events out of his control in Austria and Russia.

Austria was a divided multiethnic state even if it had been nominally the most powerful German state from 1815 to 1848 under Von Metternich. In Vienna too, crowds took to the streets with similar demands as those in Berlin such as democracy and elections. Emperor Ferdinand I fired Von Metternich who left for Britain while the Emperor appointed nominally liberal ministers to draft a liberal constitution. This constitution, however, didn’t allow for the majority of the populace to vote which led to renewed protests. In the meantime, the Emperor who was also King Ferdinand V of Hungary, had to deal with a democratic revolution in Hungary as well. The uprising started on March 15th 1848 with crowds amassing in Pest and Buda who forced the Imperial governor to accept all of the crowd’s demands. A liberal party that had formed in the Hungarian Diet over the past two decades under Lajos Kossuth took charge and issued a sweeping package of reforms known as the April Laws which basically laid the foundations for a democratic political system while also giving the new government authority over the Hungarian regiments in the Habsburg Army. In the summer of 1848, the Hungarians, aware that they were headed toward a civil war, offered support against Italy by sending troops there in exchange for support against general Josip Jelačić who wanted more autonomy for Croatia, but Vienna rebuked the offer and wanted them to cease any attempts to create a Hungarian army. With the enormous chaos within the Austrian Empire, the Italians rising up and events in Germany, Vienna recognised the Hungarian government at first. Franz Joseph, however, replaced his retarded uncle Ferdinand as Emperor and he withdrew recognition of Kossuth’s regime. When Vienna dispatched Count Lamberg to take control of Habsburg troops in Hungary, he was attacked upon arrival and war broke out. The Austrians were supported by the Romanian, Serbian and Croatian peasantry which they manipulated to turn against their oppressive Hungarian masters while Hungary was supported by their own German, Slovak, Rusyn people and Jewish minorities. The Hungarians achieved a number of victories and in April 1849 even declared total independence while Russia was paralyzed by a leadership crisis. Tsar Nicholas I, ‘the Gendarme of Europe’, had been struck by a case of throat cancer. By the time of the Hungarian declaration of independence, he had lost the ability to speak and was bedridden. His ability of decision making had degraded severely due to his ailment which caused him incessant and terrible pain which led to him not being able to focus on anything else. This apparent weakness of St. Petersburg led by an incapacitated Tsar encouraged the Poles to continue their revolt while the Hungarian army scored more victories over Habsburg forces. These events in Central and Eastern Europe led to a Habsburg power crisis which would have severe consequences for the events in the German and Italian states.

First of all, the Hungarian regiments in general Radetzky’s army had to be withdrawn from Italy to fight in Hungary for lack of Russian reinforcements. Like in Germany, there was no unified Italian nation state, but a number of states such as the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies, the Papal States, Tuscany, the Kingdom of Piedmont-Sardinia, the Kingdom of Lombardy-Venetia and the two small duchies of Parma and Modena. Italy was more rural than the rest of Europe and slow Italian farming which was uncompetitive was the mainstay of the Italian economies which made them very vulnerable to radical changes. Prices were generally not very high and therefore incomes weren’t either. Foreign powers were much more efficient in farming which had led to food riots throughout the 1840s. The Italian states were all absolutist monarchies, but were generally less oppressive with even peasants owning small pieces of land and more rights for women who often participated in public affairs. Nonetheless, discontent simmered in Italy too, albeit in the middle and higher classes who wanted a unified Italy and expulsion of Austria out of the northeast of Italy where they still held Venice. The Italians were divided as well with radicals wanting an Italian republic while moderates wanted to establish a confederation of Italian kingdoms with the Pope as its nominal ruler and mediator. The revolution in Italy started in Milan which soon pledged allegiance to Charles Albert of Savoy, King of Sardinia, to keep the radicals among them at bay, and also rallying northern Italy under one banner. General, by now field marshal, Joseph Radetzky, arrived and retreated his forces to the Quadrilatero, a group of fortresses halfway between Milan and Venice. Charles Albert, seeing how the retreat of the Hungarian regiments had fatally weakened Radetzky’s forces, decided to pursue a quick victory as he outnumbered his enemy right now, before more Austrian troops could be brought to bear once the Hungarian Revolution had been put down by the Habsburgs. The Italian forces under Charles Albert achieved a victory at Custoza and continued to pursue the Austrians, taking Verona, Mantova, Legnano and Peschiera. Radetzky didn’t have the forces he needed to combat the Italian armies effectively and could only retreat from one defensive line to the next although he made the Italians pay with blood for every victory and stopped them on the Piave river. Vienna agreed to peace with the northern Italian states who had now unified under the banner of Sardinia, establishing the border of the nascent Kingdom of Italy on the Piave river, thereby surrendering the coveted doge city Venice to the House of Savoy. The Italian speaking regions of South Tyrol and Trentino were also awarded to the Kingdom of Italy that at this time only unified the northern Italian states of Sardinia, Lombardy-Venetia (minus the territory east of the Piave river), the Grand Duchy of Tuscany and the duchies of Parma, Luca and Modena. Victory over Austria had been achieved by 1849, but Italy still wasn’t fully unified. Pope Pius IX, seeing the enormous success of Sardinia in unifying northern Italy, recalled his troops and suddenly didn’t want to become part of a unified Italian nation state any more while the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies hadn’t supported the unification process in the first place, much to the outrage of Italian nationalists who wanted to include the state on the south of the Italian boot in the new Kingdom of Italy. Revolutionaries swept the countryside which forced King Ferdinand II to flee abroad. The Kingdom of the Two Sicilies was easily incorporated into the north which for now had Turin as its provisional capital although the intention was to take Rome and establish the eternal city as the Italian capital. In 1848, papal rule was temporarily interrupted by a republican revolution. The Italian armies swept into the papal states and reduced the domains of Pius IX to just Rome by the time French forces sent by Louis-Napoleon Bonaparte arrived to reinforce the papal armies. He turned from a liberal pope to a narrow-minded conservative one since his relative liberalism hadn’t brought him any good. Only French military might kept him in charge over Rome which was the only part that remained of the Papal States. The Italian capital was moved to Florence, northern Italy. By the start of 1850, Italian unification had nearly been achieved.
 
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In the meantime, Friedrich Wilhelm IV of Prussia had been watching this and he accepted the crown of the Frankfurt Assembly after nationalist sentiment had put the king under considerable pressure to do so. Russia was incapacitated by its internal problems, a dying Tsar and a Polish revolt, and Austria was too preoccupied with fighting the Hungarians and Italians to bother stopping Prussia from unifying Germany. Friedrich Wilhelm IV, however, first made some considerable changes to the drafted liberal constitution, making it very monarchical in nature like he wanted and preserving much of his power. Sure, a Reichstag was created as a parliament with a cabinet and a chancellor, but the Reichstag was more of an advisory organ if anything and the chancellor and his ministers were responsible to the Emperor alone and considerable influence was still wielded by the landed elites and the army. With Austria and Russia in chaos, without further delay, he was crowned Emperor Friedrich Wilhelm IV of Germany in the Aachen Cathedral where the medieval kings of Germany had been crowned. The creation of a monarchist, conservative Empire of Germany had been achieved in the year of 1849. The new Germany first directed its attention toward Denmark which they were already fighting over the two duchies of Schleswig and Holstein. These were German speaking regions who had revolted to join Germany, arousing popular sentiment in Germany. Denmark had no chance against the combined might of Germany, more so with Tsar Nicholas I incapacitated and Franz Joseph unable and unwilling to assist. The Danes were decisively defeated although Britain prevented a complete annexation of Denmark. Germany was forced to settle for just the duchies of Schleswig and Holstein, incorporating them into the Empire of Germany. Italy continued to support the restive Italian minorities residing within the Habsburg Empire while Emperor Friedrich Wilhelm IV, under increasing pressure from the fervently nationalistic middle classes and bourgeoisie, supported the Hungarians. A Habsburg collapse would allow him to annex Cisleithania into his country, mostly uniting the lands of the former Holy Roman Empire. In 1851, Tsar Nicholas I finally passed away after a prolonged death struggle at the age of 54. His reform-minded son was crowned Alexander II in the Dormition Cathedral in Moscow and he proceeded to squash the last remnants of the Polish Revolt only to find a completely changed geopolitical European landscape before him. Germany and Italy had been unified and with the Habsburg collapse they gained in power, forming a block between him and western Europe. In 1851, Germany accepted Austria and Bohemia-Moravia as its newest member kingdoms while granting the Habsburgs the same status as the Wittelsbachs in Bavaria. Italy proceeded to annex the Austrian Littoral, Fiume, Trieste, Istria, Dalmatia and Gorizia-Gradisca into their Kingdom of Italy. Furthermore, the new King, Victor Emmanuel II, signed an alliance with the recently renamed Empire of Greater Germany against an increasingly hostile France under Emperor Napoleon III who had taken power after a coup d’état which had overthrown the Second Republic.

In order to retrieve something from this debacle, Alexander II ordered a nascent Polish entity in Austrian Galicia, which was no longer under control of Habsburg armies, to be crushed and annexed to ensure that it didn’t become a beacon of Polish nationalism. This alienated the young Republic of Hungary into joining the Italo-German block which was more than willing to provide assistance against Hungary’s restive Romanian, Croatian and Serb minorities in order to control the northern Balkans. Since Romanian, Serb and Croatian nation states didn’t exist, no help was forthcoming from their brethren under Ottoman suzerainty. The Sublime Porte had no interest in breaking up another multiethnic state, namely Hungary. The existence of this pro-German Hungary threatened Russian interests in the Balkans which would ensure that Russia and Germany would find themselves in opposing camps if a war ever did break out. Germany itself also had its own Czech and Polish minorities, but the latter soon found out that their new overlords were very different from the old Habsburg ones. A new nation state with a clear German majority had replaced the old Habsburg one and the new Emperor Friedrich Wilhelm IV ruthlessly stamped out any manifestation of Czech and Polish nationalism.

This was the time that the alliances in Europe would clearly begin to take shape. The first one had already formed and was known as the Triple Alliance, colloquially referred to as the Central Powers because of the geographical position of its members in the centre of Europe. This alliance consisted of the Empire of Greater Germany, the Kingdom of Italy and the Republic of Hungary which dominated Central Europe and had the ability to field large armies. Prussia had already seen much industrialization before German unification and this process was only going to continue. Germany was the most populous and industrialized country in western Europe, surpassing France as the dominant power of the European continent. The German behemoth had close to double the population of France and a larger industrial base than the French leadership could ever hope to achieve. Emperor Napoleon III of the French was deeply concerned with these developments in Germany, but by the time he had achieved power in 1852, German unification had already been a fait accompli. The nascent Kingdom of Italy was not as powerful as Germany militarily or economically, but was a strong sidekick to the growing continental German hegemony that replaced the relative French dominance of before 1848. Italy would also force France to fight a two front war if she ever found herself at war with Germany which France would surely lose against the growing might of this duo with its Hungarian vassal state. Thanks to bilateral commercial treaties with Germany, Italy also saw increased trade with Germany as well as increased investments by German companies and Berlin itself to modernize Italy which had a weak, one-sided economy based on farming. This would lead to the emergence of the industrial triangle of Liguria-Emilia Romagna-Lombardy by the start of the 1870s and increasing military cooperation would make the Italian army a much more effective fighting force. The French Emperor had already decided for himself that he would be in whichever alliance Germany was not in to restore France’s dominance; he would be no Prussian lackey. Napoleon III sought an alliance with Britain and détente with Russia or an alliance if possible. Britain, however, maintained Splendid Isolation for now although London leaned toward Paris as they too didn’t like German dominance over the continent. Tsar Alexander II, at this time, was in no mood to get embroiled in a war with Germany. Napoleon III wanted to stay on Russia’s good side and therefore decided not to get embroiled in a conflict over authority in the Holy Land and recognised Russia as the protector of Christians in the Holy Land. Instead, he focused on Rome which was the only part of Italy still in hands of Pope Pius IX who had turned from a relatively liberal pope into a staunch conservative pope, leaning on France. The Porte was in no real position to argue since it spared them a war with a somewhat doubtful outcome as far as the Ottoman Empire’s wellbeing and independence was concerned. France changed its Balkan policy in favour of a pro-Russian one in response to increasing German influence through its Hungarian puppet and Italian overtures to Greece. Napoleon III seemingly turned from a supporter of the Ottoman Empire to a vocal proponent of Romanian, Serb and Bulgarian independence overnight, but this wasn’t some erratic move. Napoleon III was trying to achieve a containment policy by allying with the great powers that immediately surrounded the Central Powers and Russia was much more suited for that goal than the moribund Ottoman Empire ever would be.

Tsar Alexander II was very busy reforming the Russian Empire. One major point of contention was the abolition of serfdom which kept Russia in the feudal age. He wanted to economically reform and modernize Russia which was missing out on the industrial revolution and was generally the most backward of the European great powers, slowly losing the dynamism it had had after the reforms of Catharine the Great of Russia. Alexander II was trying to bring it back and stay on par with Europe. He too saw the benefits of a Franco-Russian alliance. First of all, it would open up Russia for French investment which he could use to greatly expand Russia’s limited railroad network and industrial base. Secondly, it was beneficial from a military standpoint as well since it would force the Central Powers to fight a two front war as well which allowed for a window of opportunity to defeat them in a war if Russia and France acted quickly and in conjunction with each other. The Italo-German-Hungarian juggernaut was a threat to Russia as much as it was to France. Already, Italy was looking to expand its sphere of influence to the Balkans which would threaten Russia’s coveted access to the Mediterranean Sea. Also, this block’s economic power was greater than Russia’s own. The Central Powers quickly started to gobble up markets all over Europe and overwhelm Europe with its own products while shielding off its own markets from Russian, French and British products by installing tariffs. Europe was the prime market for Russia’s grain export. Grain was Russia’s main export product. France and Russia allied themselves to each other in 1854. The British still opposed Russia in the Middle East over spheres of influence in Persia and Afghanistan where their armies would still skirmish a few times although an Anglo-Russian war was avoided through French mediation since Napoleon III had no desire to fight Britain with its much larger fleet. Britain kept on supporting the Porte for the time being, but many recognised that the only way to keep the German hegemony in check was by allying with France and Russia and leaving the Porte to its devices. Britain might as well participate in its division to minimize the damage to its own interests in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. In 1854, however, Great Britain still chose to maintain Splendid Isolation and oppose Russia in the Middle East. That was option one with the second option being allying with Germany.

During the 1860s and 70s, German chancellor Bismarck would allude to the combined power of Germany and Britain which would be invincible according to him. Germany, with its longstanding tradition of Prussian militarism, had a powerful army and dominated Europe. The German army was the second largest in Europe, second only to the Imperial Russian Army which, however, was much more behind on modern tactics and equipment and lacked a decent infrastructure which limited its effectiveness. While Germany was undoubtedly powerful militarily, Great Britain ruled the seas with its navy that outclassed and outnumbered all others and protected the vast British Empire. According to Emperor Wilhelm I, Bismarck and their successors, the two countries complemented each other excellently. The opposition of Russia to the Central Powers played into the hands of the Germans. Indeed, the argumentation of Germany was sound and some in London came to see her as the best match to safeguard British interests on the continent while Germany’s strong sidekick Italy could help serve British interests in the Mediterranean theatre. The Hungarian puppet of Rome and Berlin was being supported by both of them. It was ethnically divided and the Romanian, Croat and Serb minorities remained restive, but no help was forthcoming since they had no independent fatherland to turn to. Budapest wavered between brutally stamping out nationalism and culture through Magyarization and half hearted concessions and promises of autonomy. The realization that they would only gain independence by breaking Italo-German power, a foolish endeavour at the best of times, led to belief that widespread resistance was useless. As it was, the Hungarians with their supporting Slovak, Rusyn and Jewish minorities constituted barely half of the country’s population, but German funding, military support, investments and a reorganization of the Hungarian army based on the Prussian model allowed Budapest to suppress its minorities. Many Romanians, Croats and Serbs lost hope and immigrated to America to seek a better life. The Republic of Hungary had a large army for a relatively small country and could therefore exert much influence in the Balkans and serve to limit Russian influence there which was also in Britain’s interest. The division between proponents of Splendid Isolation, Francophiles and Germanophiles would dominate British politics during the 1850s and 60s with the latter two slowly gaining ground. More and more people came to the realization that isolationism might not be the best or most realistic option with the radically changed European political landscape in mind. Neither a Franco-Russian nor a Central Powers victory in a European war served British interests and getting involved would allow Britain to limit the damage to its interests, but in the 1850s this was still in the future. London contented itself with the knowledge that none of the powers had any realistic chance of defeating Britain militarily.

A different conflict loomed across the Atlantic Ocean in the United States of America. There, conflict broke out between those supporting slavery and the abolitionists. During the US presidential election of 1860, the Republican Party under Abraham Lincoln had campaigned against the expansion of slavery beyond the states where it already existed. At this time, America was still busy expanding and any new states and territories would not see slavery if Lincoln had a say in the matter. He won the elections and took office in March 1860. Seven states seceded from the Union, but this went unrecognised by the Lincoln administration which considered this act to be rebellion. The seceding states were South Carolina, Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia and Texas. They formed an own government for their new country which they christened the Confederate States of America, or CSA for short, with Jefferson Davis as their president, a constitution modelled on that of the US and a similar governmental structure, if looser than the Union, and Montgomery, Alabama, as their capital. With the attack on Union installation Fort Sumter in South Carolina in April 1861, hostilities began and four more southern slave states seceded namely Virginia, Arkansas, North Carolina and Tennessee. Missouri and Kentucky were also admitted, but had been retaken by Union forces by the end of 1861. The War Between the States had officially begun.
 
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Ah, I was wondering how this would affect the ACW the whole time and it was mentioned at the end. Verrry interesting, I'll stay tuned. :D
 
Awesome. Really, really really cool. A more-so earlier unified Prussia/Germany.

Uummmm....How about a map? Would like to see what the Empire of Greater Germany looks like.
 
Awesome. Really, really really cool. A more-so earlier unified Prussia/Germany.

Uummmm....How about a map? Would like to see what the Empire of Greater Germany looks like.

Basically OTL's 1914 borders minus Alsace-Lorraine + Austria and Czechia. Unfortunately, my map making skills don't go further than editing and colouring existing maps :eek:. Maybe you should ask someone with an aptitude for map making to read the TL as it is so far and then ask him to make a map.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Very interesting start. I shall follow it with outmost eagerness. It takes a little butterfly managing to put Bismarck in the Chancellor seat all the way again, but the man was very much a pragmatic realpoticker to the core, I can see him toning down his OTL conservative leaning in order to fit in this new liberal-conservative Germany. Certainly his diplomatic talents would be needed to help Germany find a place in the new European system, and this may be a way he becomes Chancellor, maybe he's foreign advisor or minister for while beforehand.

Apart from this, the first decade and half of the TL flows nicely: the economic boom and military rise to continental hegemony of the new CPs bloc is quite plausible and to be expected. So it the realigning of the new alliance blocs with the formation of the ATL Triple Alliance (now in a fully stable form, Hungary may have some serious minority issues, but Berlin and Rome can help stabilize them, and Italy would not betray this alliance, which is fully satisfying to its interests) and the proto Franco-Russian Entente. It is also reasonable that the new geopolitical structure of Europe butterflied away the Crimean War, the Russo-Turkish War, and the Franco-Russian War (and the other European mid-1800s wars have no reason to happen now), since France and Russia face too much strong an opposition (esp. because an Anglo-CPs cooperation against too blatant Russian expansionism in the Balkans can be expected).

However, it is also reasonable to expect that the imperialistic tensions that were vented off by those wars cannot be hold back forever, even if their unleashing would plunge a proto-WWI now. However, the decay of the Ottoman rule in the Balkans cannot likely be arrested, and sooner or later this is going to provoke some serious explosion. It may be possible that the great powers manage to contain the conflict and create a stopgap compromise solution, as they did IOTL with the Congress of Berlin. I may have some suggestions about a possible territorial deal.

Of course, with a much stronger Germany and Italy that are already unified in the 1850s, the colonial scramble shall be radically different, since Berlin and Rome shall be in the position to claim rather more, and better, colonies than they could IOTL, on a wholly equal footing with London and Paris. Several different patterns for the Scramble for Africa are certainly possible, but for this kind of TL, I tend to favor one where the OTL geopolitical vectors are fulfilled with more success: Germany focuses on gaining Morocco and western central-southern Africa, while Italy focuses on gaining central north Africa and eastern Africa. Certainly it does not seem realistic that ITTL Belgium and Portugal manage to gain any valuable African colony. The CPs shall also be quite active in the colonization of South East Africa and the penetration of China.

As it concerns the ACW, it is quite possible that it still essentially unfolds without significant interference by European powers. Even if for story purposes such interference does happens, the Euro powers ought to cancel each other out and let the destined victory of the North still happen. If some European messing happens, the liberal CPs powers would the natural allies of the Union, and would act to counter any Anglo-French (or French-Russian) intervention in favor of the CSA.
 
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Very interesting start. I shall follow it with outmost eagerness. I would only remark a minor mistake: Charles Albert left the throne of Sardinia owning to his abdication following defeat in the 1849 rematch with Austria. Obviously, ITTL he's triumphant and he would have no reason whatsoever to abdicate, and IOTL he lived many years after his abdication. Now, for story purposes, I would suggest you to maintain the OTL succession schedule since Vittorio Emanuele II, for all his character flaws, was still a much better king for the new united Italy than his father would have ever been. E.g. you may state that Charles Albert is killed by a stray bullet during one of the last battles with Austria, or assassinated by a republican extremist or, even bettar, a clerical fanatic. Or create some ATL disease or accident (we are still in an age where an sudden acute infection could claim the life of a royal very suddenly).

-snip-

AFAIK, Charles Albert died in 1849 and wikipedia confirms this (not the most reliable source, I know). So by the 1850s, Victor Emmanuel II should already by king.
 

Eurofed

Banned
AFAIK, Charles Albert died in 1849 and wikipedia confirms this (not the most reliable source, I know). So by the 1850s, Victor Emmanuel II should already by king.

Argh, very true. I apparently confused him with Umberto II. And his cause of death would not have been likely butterflied by the victory. I apologize profusely for the mistake and I pull down that part of my comment.
:eek::eek::eek:
 

Eurofed

Banned
I have adapted a mosaic map I made for my own 1866 TL to represent TTL Europe in 1861. It's not especially beautiful, but it's a start.

2h6vtwh.png
 

Eurofed

Banned
On second thoughts by rereading the first chapter more carefully in order to create the map, I noticed that Rome is still in the hands of the reactionary Pope, and effectively a French protectorate. Notwithstanding what I said previously, this is a source of major international tension between France and Italy, and hence between the two alliance blocs.

There is no way that Italy can be persuaded to give up its aspiration for good to fulfill its national unification by freeing Rome, its natural capital, from the Papal yoke. It is only biding its time, no doubt most impatiently. As soon as it sees an opportunity (i.e. it can be sure of German support for a war against France, or France is distracted elsewhere), it shall make a move to liberate Rome, most likley through a nationalist insurrection and/or invasion by volunteer militias, led by Garibaldi. I fully expect this to unleash a war within a decade.

It seems Germany shall have a very good chance to gain Alsace-Lorraine relatively soon, after all. Also Luxemburg, since it has not yet been declared an independent neutral state ITTL. It is a principate, nominally a member of the defunct German Confederation, in personal union with Netherlands. The Dutch King is debt-ridden, so he's willing to sell it to France or Germany, if a good offer comes, and Germany has a good claim on it, because of its previous membersgip in the GC. This can easily be another casus belli between France and Germany/Italy, besides Rome. The two crises could even arise in parallel and become a twin casus belli.

Of course, Napoleon III may let Italy get Rome and/or Germany get Luxemburg without a fight (a well-armed Garibaldi may easily kick the French garrison out of Rome), but it would be a most severe loss of face, so he has a lose-lose choice, fight a superior enemy (but he could easily get overconfident and think he can defeat the CPs with Russian support).

Russia would most likely support their one good ally, but the CPs may have several potential good allies of their own: 1848 Italo-German-Hungarian liberal nationalists were sympathetic to the Polish cause and had ties with their Pole counterparts, so the CPs could easily foster and support another Polish insurrection. Sweden may be interested in an anti-Russian alliance to recover Finland. And Britain at the very least could easilt be a CP-friendly neutral, in this period anti-Russian containtment is their main priority in Europe.
 
Rijeka/Fiume/Pflaum will most likely end up with Germany if Italy gets Trieste.

I imagine Pflaum as it would be called would experience heavy German immigration over the next century, as it would be very nice for Germany to have its own outlet to the Mediterranean.
 

Eurofed

Banned
The Regia Marina, the Hungarian Navy, and a Kriegsmarine Fleet, all in the Mediterranean ? I can hear the choking noises and gnashing of teeth in Paris. :D:cool: Talk about a CPs lake.

Of course, if Germany gets Fiume and Italy gets Trieste, they shall have to help their ally Hungary build a new port of its own in the Kvarner Gulf.
 
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Eurofed

Banned
Ladies and gentlemen, as you may have noticed, OW has edited the first chapter to clarify that Fiume went to Italy (sorry, no German Mediterranean port and fleet, it seems that Germany shall simply use the ports and naval power of its Italian ally), so I revised the map accordingly. Besides Fiume proper, I assumed, with the author's assent, that most of Slovenia still goes to Germany, but western Slovenia goes to Italy to make a straight, rounded-up German-Italian border to Fiume.

Here the new map goes:

2m3lgth.png
 
The Italian capital was moved to Latina, just south of Rome. By the start of 1850, Italian unification had nearly been achieved.
A couple of nitpicks. Latina was only founded in 1932 under the Fascist regime. Naples and Florcence would be more likely choices, as they were in OTL, where Florence was chosen. Oh, and the French armies would probably manage to restore more of Lazio to the Pope's control than what is shown in your map.
 

Giladis

Banned
Considerin Hungarian ideology and agenda of that time an occupied Croatia would be a source of perpetual unrest that could be exploited by the enemies of Hungary.

The Hungarians have basicaly deined the existance of Croatian people. The Croats and outher south slavs were in a middle of a national revival. I think it would take a lot more than just breaking the armed forces raised by Croatia to subjugate the land. If you add that Ottomans would be willing to finance Croatian and other southslav resistance in the region to keep Hungary occupied from stiring up unrest in Bosnia and Herzegovina, you come to a very bleek picture for the Hungarians.

At this time frontier troops in Croatia and Slavonia had been very experienced hit and run, live of the land guerilla fighters that could easly abandon outright war, retreat into the wilderness which was at that time pretty much everything outside Zagreb, Varaždin, Osijek/Esseg, Karlovac and Rijeka/Fiume and than cause a bucked load of trouble to the Hungarians.

From what I have been reading over the past months I came to realise that most AH writers that tackle this peroid have no comprehension how volatile the situation was between Croats and Hungarians at that time. The situation in Dalmatia would be less stressed as long as Italians do not start heavy Italinization. That would spark severe resentment and unrest.

People of Croatia, Slavonia and Dalmatia had entered 1948 fighting with a goal of uniting into a single country. Geting the short end of the stick would not make them a very happy bunch.

Cheers
 

JJohnson

Banned
Hmmm....very interesting start. I've always liked your timelines, as they read well and are well detailed and plausible. If I could suggest, perhaps there's a way to have a German immigration in the 19th century of some size to permit a German-speaking majority in at least 1 US state? Kind of like a US Quebec in a way? That'd be interesting, especially for future US politics in relation to Europe.
 
I know you spoke about this in the beginning, but it is rather similar to Frankfurter. Just saying.:rolleyes: Ill try to keep up with this one, looks promising.
 
Considerin Hungarian ideology and agenda of that time an occupied Croatia would be a source of perpetual unrest that could be exploited by the enemies of Hungary.

The Hungarians have basicaly deined the existance of Croatian people. The Croats and outher south slavs were in a middle of a national revival. I think it would take a lot more than just breaking the armed forces raised by Croatia to subjugate the land. If you add that Ottomans would be willing to finance Croatian and other southslav resistance in the region to keep Hungary occupied from stiring up unrest in Bosnia and Herzegovina, you come to a very bleek picture for the Hungarians.

At this time frontier troops in Croatia and Slavonia had been very experienced hit and run, live of the land guerilla fighters that could easly abandon outright war, retreat into the wilderness which was at that time pretty much everything outside Zagreb, Varaždin, Osijek/Esseg, Karlovac and Rijeka/Fiume and than cause a bucked load of trouble to the Hungarians.

From what I have been reading over the past months I came to realise that most AH writers that tackle this peroid have no comprehension how volatile the situation was between Croats and Hungarians at that time. The situation in Dalmatia would be less stressed as long as Italians do not start heavy Italinization. That would spark severe resentment and unrest.

People of Croatia, Slavonia and Dalmatia had entered 1948 fighting with a goal of uniting into a single country. Geting the short end of the stick would not make them a very happy bunch.

Cheers

Would it be wise for the Ottomans to support Hungary's minorities if Hungary is allied to Italy and Greater Germany when they also have the Russians to contend with? They'd better try not to make anyone angry and stay neutral, if they can.
 
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