Terms Reconsidered: Pulling a Siam instead of a Meiji

Strategos' Risk

Elaborate Title Name: SR Question Thread

In the AH business, we talk about pulling a Meiji quite often, about what if certain nations could have somehow advanced almost miraculously to becoming European or near-European technologically/economically/militarily advanced. But what about another model for historically colonized nations to survive and flourish? While I'm no longer much of a fan of his, Orson Scott Card brought it up quite interestingly in his Shadow trilogy, to wit:

It is hard to imagine a nation that has been more lucky in the quality of its leaders as Thailand and its predecessor kingdoms, which managed to survive invasions from every direction and European and Japanese ambitions in Southeast Asia, all the while maintaining its own national character and remaining, more than many kingdoms and oligarchies, responsive to the needs of the Thai people.
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'I got fascinated with Thailand. A nation of survivors. The ancient Tai people managed to take over vast reaches of the Cambodian Empire and spread throughout southeast Asia, all without anybody noticing. They were conquered by Burma & emerged stronger than ever. When other countries were falling under European domination, Thailand managed to expand its borders for a surprisingly long time, & even when it lost Cambodia & Laos, it held its core... the Thai are not easily conquered, and, once conquered, not easily ruled.
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So is it a possible alternate model for discussing how countries could have done better than in OTL?
 

David S Poepoe

Banned
I'm not sure if Orson Scott Card knew what he was talking about. One usually thinks that Siam continued to exist since it was the buffer zone between two empires. Also Siam never really modernized to the same extent as Japan and it wasn't as isolated that it could work thru its problems and modernize. One could rightly argue that the advantage of distance, be it the English Channel, the Sea of Japan or the Atlantic Ocean does play some role in giving a society a sort of breathing room.
 

Strategos' Risk

I thought the reason was because the Thai royals were canny enough to play off the colonial powers against each other. OSC does a lot of trumpeting about their ability to survive, but I think that wasn't because of tenacity so much as their negotiation skills.
 
DrakeRlugia

DrakeRlugia

Strategos' Risk said:
I thought the reason was because the Thai royals were canny enough to play off the colonial powers against each other. OSC does a lot of trumpeting about their ability to survive, but I think that wasn't because of tenacity so much as their negotiation skills.
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Maybe, but the fact that Britain and France wanted neither one to get a hold of Siam, having it exist as a buffer between French Indochina and Burma worked quite well.
 

Leistungsfähiger Amerikan

Strategos' Risk said:
More comments! I'm trying to establish a trend, dammit!
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Alright, well lets think; what other nations could pull a Siam? We need diplomatic isolation and negotiating skills. This leaves us with the possibility of the rest of South East Asia, the heart of Africa, and perhaps central Asia. In Africa, perhaps the Ethiopians could pull it off, as they almost did OTL. Maybe if they get aided by Russia, which almost happened because Russia wanted a port there. Most Central Asian nations were gobbled up by Russia or China. I think that it's possible-Tibet being a buffer for one of the empires. Also, Burma. It took three Anglo-Burmese wars to completely conquer, and they had some diplomatic skills, as in trying to meet with Queen Victoria or the French government for recognition. If the reformists had stayed in power(the conservative militarist eventually retook power OTL) then perhaps they could have made it.
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

Donor
Madagascar might have managed it, or Hawaii - the country in question needs to be united under a monarch, and able to retain its independence in the face of initial contact with Europeans.

Perhaps remove the mad queen of Madagascar (cannot spell those names from memory!) which removes some of the French aggression

Hawaii perhaps if it had greater British presence nearby, maybe something earlier happening to the Philippines and benefitting Britain

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Sokoto and Bornu could play this role in Africa. Just have their leaders be more skillful and more able to play German, British and French interests of each other.
 

pa_dutch

The area in what is now the Democratic Republic of the Congo could perhaps have an indigenous buffer state instead of King Leopold's colony. The Luba Kingdom was very influential over the Lunda Kingdom, so perhaps it formally conquers or merges with it. The Lunda-Luba government acquires guns before the Chokwe do and manages to expand north. By the time the Scramble for Africa comes about, the Lunda-Luba Empire is strong enough to maintain its sovereignty and pulls an Ethiopia over most of the Congo Free State.

Maybe Tippu Tip's state could pull it off as well.
 

Strategos' Risk

Could Tecumseh, the Six Civilized tribes, or any other Amerindians have been able to ward off American expansion by playing the whites against each other, or were their struggles a lost cause, given the inevitable tide of settlers?

Also wondering if Louis Riel could have successfully split off a Metis nation from Canada, getting American support.
 

Mr Qwerty

Strategos' Risk said:
Could Tecumseh, the Six Civilized tribes, or any other Amerindians have been able to ward off American expansion by playing the whites against each other, or were their struggles a lost cause, given the inevitable tide of settlers?
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Well, that's how the Iroquois survived as long as they did. Unfortunately, the French eventually lost out. Hardly surprising when the British sent ten times as many colonists to North America.
 
9 Fanged Hummingbird

9 Fanged Hummingbird

Mr Qwerty said:
Well, that's how the Iroquois survived as long as they did. Unfortunately, the French eventually lost out. Hardly surprising when the British sent ten times as many colonists to North America.
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Uh, really? I'm pretty sure the Iroquois just totally sided with the British after their neighbors joined the French. I really can't recall any instances of the Iroquois playing them against eachother.
 

Strategos' Risk

This is an old thread, but it did produce some good examples of the trend I’m describing, so I want to push the conversation further-

how could any of these states parlayed independence (as buffers, as smart enough to play colonizers against each other, etc.) into modernizing and even becoming regional powers of their own right?

To start with the very name, could Siam had become a regional power in SE Asia? Or would that cause them to lose their sovereignty fast as they bumped into French Indochina and British Burma
 

Strategos' Risk

Screen_Shot_2014-06-23_at_5.07.38_PM2.png


www.vox.com

Map: European colonialism conquered every country in the world but these five

This map shows every country that's been colonized or conquered by Europe. It's virtually all of them.
www.vox.com www.vox.com
 
Fatt Shea

Fatt Shea

Strategos' Risk said:
Elaborate Title Name: SR Question Thread

In the AH business, we talk about pulling a Meiji quite often, about what if certain nations could have somehow advanced almost miraculously to becoming European or near-European technologically/economically/militarily advanced. But what about another model for historically colonized nations to survive and flourish? While I'm no longer much of a fan of his, Orson Scott Card brought it up quite interestingly in his Shadow trilogy, to wit:






So is it a possible alternate model for discussing how countries could have done better than in OTL?
Click to expand...
Maybe Egypt could play France and the UK against eachothter since they both wanted control there, maybe a stronger France could help with this, Morocco could do it using Germany vs France and Tunisia could do it using France vs Italy.
 
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