WI: Mehmed II establishes Third Rome

What if Mehmed II lived longer and was able to finish his conquest of Italy, thus allowing him to fully reestablish the Roman Empire?

A couple of ideas I have:

-Possibly an extreme reaction from Christian Europe, leading to a new crusade?
-Maybe Mehmed tries to reunite Eastern and Western Churches?
-His sucessors continue to think of the Turkish empire as the Islamic Rome, and continue using the title Kayser-i Rum (Caesar of the Romans)?

I just think having an Islamic Rome would be so cool. Your ideas?

Maharajah said:

What if Mehmed II wasn't asassinated and was able to finish his conquest of Italy, thus allowing him to fully reestablish the Roman Empire?

A couple of ideas I have:

-Possibly an extreme reaction from Christian Europe, leading to a new crusade?
-Maybe Mehmed tries to reunite Eastern and Western Churches?
-His sucessors continue to think of the Turkish empire as the Islamic Rome, and continue using the title Kayser-i Rum (Caesar of the Romans)?

I just think having an Islamic Rome would be so cool. Your ideas?

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Mehmed II wasn't assassinated - he died of natural causes. He was relatively young upon his death, though, (49) so it's not out of the question for him to have lived longer.

If he had conquered Italy, he probably would have had to set up a Catholic millet with a patriarch in Constantinople - the Papacy would relocate to somewhere else, so you'd have an Ottoman pope and a non-Ottoman pope.

It's hard to say what the impact of the Ottomans on Italy would be - it would depend on how long they held it. I suspect that it would be pretty difficult to hold long-term given that it is entirely Christian. It would also make the population of the empire overwhelmingly Christian, which would be odd.

Abdul Hadi Pasha said:

It would also make the population of the empire overwhelmingly Christian, which would be odd.

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Indeed. Perhaps it would have been something along the lines of the Mughal Empire- a majority non-Islamic empire ruled by Islamic emperors.

Technically, the Ottoman Rulers claimed the title Roman Emperor, and held it until 1922.

Abdul Hadi Pasha said:

It's hard to say what the impact of the Ottomans on Italy would be - it would depend on how long they held it. I suspect that it would be pretty difficult to hold long-term given that it is entirely Christian. It would also make the population of the empire overwhelmingly Christian, which would be odd.

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Is there anywhere that compares the populations of, say, Italy and Anatolia at the time?

Egypt, France.

Anyway, I'm not sure how long they'll be able to hold it. Instead of being right next door to piddly Austria or Hungary, they're right next door to infant superpowers in France and Spain. Both will be coming down hard on the Ottomans. So, the Italian Wars of OTL are, in this TL, fought together by France and Spain instead of between France and Spain. I pity the Ottomans.

Abdul Hadi Pasha said:

Mehmed II wasn't assassinated - he died of natural causes. He was relatively young upon his death, though, (49) so it's not out of the question for him to have lived longer.

If he had conquered Italy, he probably would have had to set up a Catholic millet with a patriarch in Constantinople - the Papacy would relocate to somewhere else, so you'd have an Ottoman pope and a non-Ottoman pope.

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Set up a Catholic millet with its HQ so far away in Constantinople? I can see him just setting up a new Pope in the Vatican, closer to the people, makes it easier for his (presumably) loyal Pope and assorted Church officials to control the bishop and parish priests. Plus, having a pet pope in Rome might make it easier for the Ottomans to do business with the Italian princes.

Ottoman Sultan-Caesar: "Why yes Duke of Milan/Medici of Florence/other-prominent-Italian-prince, I would LOVE to appoint/suggest-at-the-end-of-a-sword-to-the-new-curia your nephew/cousin/close-relative the Papacy- if you would only ask the French and Hapsburg troops to leave your territory and end your alliegience to the false Emperor . . . "

It's hard to say what the impact of the Ottomans on Italy would be - it would depend on how long they held it. I suspect that it would be pretty difficult to hold long-term given that it is entirely Christian. It would also make the population of the empire overwhelmingly Christian, which would be odd.

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It might be odd, but it also could be invigorating for the Ottomans. If Italy is taken, then it keeps the Ottomans looking westward, and keeps the Ottomans on the front-lines of European military development. Heck, the effectiveness of the Ottoman's military system might well create ripples that affect European military development well before the Ottoman benefit from any technology that is developed in the west.

Also, conquering Italy as the Renaissance gets in full swing is going to do all kinds of cool things to European history. Many Italians whose art and thinking did so much to decorate the various courts of Italy's princes will no doubt move either further north to avoid the Sultan's army, or east, as the Sultan's guests. Mehmed had his portrait painted by a Venetian painter before he died- perhaps he imports more Italian talent to Constantinople?

Italy is left to the armies, which will also be all kinds of interesting. I think that some Italian princes could well end up deciding that it is better to pledge alliegiance to the newly-styled Roman Emperor/Ottoman Sultan, who will allow them a good deal of independence, then ally to fellow European monarchs who have claims on their territory. Like princes on the Ottoman/Christian border in the Balkans, political independence could well become more important the religion of the prince's potential Great Power backer.

A quick tour as to why Italy might not resist the Ottomans too much:
-Venice's wealth is dependent on the goodwill of the Ottoman Empire, even more so with them on nearly all landward borders.
-Florence has little interest in fighting a power that it can't resist.
-Milan has reason to suspect both France and the Hapsburg have designs on their Duchy, and the Ottomans can offer continued freedom of action.
-to all the Italian powers the Ottomans can offer the military backing to keep Europe-beyond-the-Alps from coming into Italy

The expulsion of the Pope will also have ripples in Europe. Perhaps more nationally focused Churches? Luther (or more specifically his ATL counterpart) will have a much easier time, with the Church hierarchy already in chaos as feuding monarchs fight over who gets to host the Pope.

Jaded_Railman said:

Egypt, France.

Anyway, I'm not sure how long they'll be able to hold it. Instead of being right next door to piddly Austria or Hungary, they're right next door to infant superpowers in France and Spain. Both will be coming down hard on the Ottomans. So, the Italian Wars of OTL are, in this TL, fought together by France and Spain instead of between France and Spain. I pity the Ottomans.

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You have a curious definition of "piddly". If the Hapsburg Empire in this period is "piddly", then so was the Roman Empire.

After the Battle of Nikopolis, Beyazid captured a great proportion of the nobility of Europe, and as was normal at the time, held them hostage. Also normal, when a hostage was ransomed, he swore an oath never to take up arms against his captor again. Beyazid waved the oath, instead saying "Bring it." In the 16th c, in the great wars between Suleyman and Charles V, and for 150 years after that, the Hapsburgs and all the other powers studiously avoided field battles with the Ottoman army, because they knew they had no chance of winning. Pity not the Ottomans. First of all, you will never get Spain and France to form a united front - there are way too many ways the Ottomans can get in the way of that - actually, too many ways Spain and France can get in the way of that. Second, the Ottomans have no reason to take any other attitude but "bring it."

Not until the latter half of the 17th c do the Ottomans really need to be concerned. If they had Italy they would have devoted greater resources to naval power, and if they held Italy they would have much greater resources.

You might also find that the Italians themselves might not object much to the far lower taxes and the lack of constant warfare between petty Italian states.

In answer to SRT's question, the population of Italy was much higher than Anatolia's - at least three times higher. The population of the entire Ottoman Empire at it's height, stretching from Hungary to Egypt to Algeria, was about equal to that of France. Italy's population was probably lower than that, but not by a huge margin. It depends upon how much of Italy the Ottomans conquer - the North had the greatest concentration of population - Lombardy, Piedmont, and Venetia.

Excellent analysis.

Matthais Corvinus said:

Set up a Catholic millet with its HQ so far away in Constantinople? I can see him just setting up a new Pope in the Vatican, closer to the people, makes it easier for his (presumably) loyal Pope and assorted Church officials to control the bishop and parish priests. Plus, having a pet pope in Rome might make it easier for the Ottomans to do business with the Italian princes.

Ottoman Sultan-Caesar: "Why yes Duke of Milan/Medici of Florence/other-prominent-Italian-prince, I would LOVE to appoint/suggest-at-the-end-of-a-sword-to-the-new-curia your nephew/cousin/close-relative the Papacy- if you would only ask the French and Hapsburg troops to leave your territory and end your alliegience to the false Emperor . . . "

It might be odd, but it also could be invigorating for the Ottomans. If Italy is taken, then it keeps the Ottomans looking westward, and keeps the Ottomans on the front-lines of European military development. Heck, the effectiveness of the Ottoman's military system might well create ripples that affect European military development well before the Ottoman benefit from any technology that is developed in the west.

Also, conquering Italy as the Renaissance gets in full swing is going to do all kinds of cool things to European history. Many Italians whose art and thinking did so much to decorate the various courts of Italy's princes will no doubt move either further north to avoid the Sultan's army, or east, as the Sultan's guests. Mehmed had his portrait painted by a Venetian painter before he died- perhaps he imports more Italian talent to Constantinople?

Italy is left to the armies, which will also be all kinds of interesting. I think that some Italian princes could well end up deciding that it is better to pledge alliegiance to the newly-styled Roman Emperor/Ottoman Sultan, who will allow them a good deal of independence, then ally to fellow European monarchs who have claims on their territory. Like princes on the Ottoman/Christian border in the Balkans, political independence could well become more important the religion of the prince's potential Great Power backer.

A quick tour as to why Italy might not resist the Ottomans too much:
-Venice's wealth is dependent on the goodwill of the Ottoman Empire, even more so with them on nearly all landward borders.
-Florence has little interest in fighting a power that it can't resist.
-Milan has reason to suspect both France and the Hapsburg have designs on their Duchy, and the Ottomans can offer continued freedom of action.
-to all the Italian powers the Ottomans can offer the military backing to keep Europe-beyond-the-Alps from coming into Italy

The expulsion of the Pope will also have ripples in Europe. Perhaps more nationally focused Churches? Luther (or more specifically his ATL counterpart) will have a much easier time, with the Church hierarchy already in chaos as feuding monarchs fight over who gets to host the Pope.

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Just how large could the Ottoman Empire concievably grow anyway? Could , in a TL where everything goes right for the Ottoman Empire , we have an Ottoman Empire with territories/vassals on the Baltic and even along the Rhine, in addition to Italy?

Advernt said:

Just how large could the Ottoman Empire concievably grow anyway? Could , in a TL where everything goes right for the Ottoman Empire , we have an Ottoman Empire with territories/vassals on the Baltic and even along the Rhine, in addition to Italy?

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I think that would really be pushing it. Italy is accessible because it's weak, disunited, and reachable by sea. Northern and Western Germany is just too far from Istanbul. I think in the European direction, Vienna and Italy are about the most the Ottomans could possibly gain realistically.

So Mehmed II doesn't die, but lands in Italy with his vast army. He defeats the army Naples had sent, and advances on and seizes Naples itself.

Now Rome is in chaos as the Papacy quickly weighs its options. Within a fortnight of Naples' fall, the Pope and his curia have fled the city with as much of the Vatican's wealth as they can fit in the wagons.

The Ottoman army is advancing north, and there is no significant force to prevent them from sacking Rome. Naples' royal family has fled to Spain, to court their powerful cousin King Ferdinand, while the Pope has fled to France ostensibly to raise a new Crusade. The French and Hapsburg are on the edge of war over the Burgundian Inheritance, but the invasion has butterflied away Mary of Burgundy's unfortunate death, so there is not an immediate cause belli between the two powers.

The Pope is preaching a new crusade, and clearly the Ottoman invasion of Italy is a threat to all three European Great Powers: newly united Spain- where the invasion threaten Aragon's Sicily, the French- who have vague claims on Naples and Milan, and the Hapsburg- who don't want the Ottoman's to control their entire southern frontier.

Florence and Milan now face an interesting situation. Ottoman representatives arrive ahead of the Ottoman army, offering peace and the Sultan's recognition of the two cities territory and independence, in return for promises not to host foreign troops. The representatives sweeten the deal by offering to recognize the two cities various territorial ambitions. Venice watches the moves apprehensively, sending messages to its own ambassadors to make sure the Sultan remembers to keep the peace he made with the Serene Republic.

As Lorenzo and Ludivico equivocate over the terms, the Ottomans savagely sack Rome and put their calvary into the field, raiding across the Italian countryside. Help from the beyond the Alps seems to be coming far too slowly. Louis XI raises a large army, but when the Pope dies he seems more interested in using it to help the curia pick the next Pope than fight the Ottoman. Maximilian is reluctant to committ troops while France is raising such a large army and his father, Frederick III, is unable to send troops because the Hungarian King, Matthias Corvinus, has taken the Ottoman invasion of Italy as an opportunity to strengthen his position and expand his control of Christian territory, namely through war with Frederick.

Florence and Milan make peace with the Ottomans. The newly elected Pope Julius II (yes THAT Julius II) excommunicates the Sforza and Medici, and declares that unless their people overthrow them, the entire Florentine Republic and Duchy of Milan will face excommunication. The Italian princes who have made peace with the Ottomans respond by having the "Council of Florence" where a new college of cardinals elects a new Pope. Funds are raised, including significant contributions from the Sultan, to rebuild the Vatican for the new Pope.

In 1483 Louis XI dies, setting off OTL's "Mad War"- a civil war in France over the regency of young Charles VIII, between the Duke of Orelans, the young king's heir, and the Duke of Bourbon, the young king's brother-in-law.

The civil war in France allows Maximilian to make a lasting peace with France, and turn his attention south. His father, the Emperor Frederick, strikes a peace deal with King Matthias of Hungary, recognizing Matthias' territorial gains and recognizing Matthias' bastard son, Janos Corvinus, as Hungary's crown prince. Maximilian has been in contact with Ludivico Sforza, who professes a desire to overthow Ottoman rule. Ludivico and Maximilian make a secret alliance, and King Matthias is brought into it with a marriage agreement between Ludivicio's neice Bianca and Matthias' heir Janos.

So in 1485, Ludivico Sforza welcomes Hapsburg and Hungarian armies into Italy, truly beginning the first round of the "Italian Wars" that would last well into the next century.

I think I might do a timeline.

I've only just briefly looked at this page, but has anyone suggested the recruitment of Italians into the Sultan's Janissary Corps? Or would that piss off even the Ottoman-approved Papacy?

Lysandros Aikiedes said:

I've only just briefly looked at this page, but has anyone suggested the recruitment of Italians into the Sultan's Janissary Corps? Or would that piss off even the Ottoman-approved Papacy?

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Only people who wasn't Christian or Jewish at the time of the Prophet could become Janissaries, it was a way to get around the Islamic ban against taking Christian or Jewish slaves outside war.

Valdemar II said:

Only people who wasn't Christian or Jewish at the time of the Prophet could become Janissaries, it was a way to get around the Islamic ban against taking Christian or Jewish slaves outside war.

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I thought that the Turks had chosen Christian-born Greeks, Armenians, Slavs, Bulgarians, and Circassians as Janissaries. Are you sure its not the Mamluks you're thinking of?

Lysandros Aikiedes said:

I thought that the Turks had chosen Christian-born Greeks, Armenians, Slavs, Bulgarians, and Circassians as Janissaries. Are you sure its not the Mamluks you're thinking of?

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Yes (filler)

Let's say the Ottomans take Italy and keep it for a minimum of a couple centuries or even longer. It's hardly my expert field, but didn't the Ottomans take a portion of the children of their conquered peoples into the army, converting them to Islam and teaching them Ottoman Turkish in the process?

So, if Italy ends up with a significant Muslim population, through the abovementioned process and through immigration within the empire (functionaries and their families and retinues have to come manage the new territories, along with garrison troops, merchants, etc.), does this perhaps eventually lead to less of a percieved cultural divide between Christianity and Islam? East-West is another matter, but would a significant population of Western Muslims reduce the exotic nature of Islam in modern Western popular thought?

Also, I wonder if Austria and Hungary might end up stronger, especially if the Ottomans are getting hammered in Italy by Spain and France (well, at the time, Spain and Austria were ruled by the same people, right? So maybe Austrian troops are being spent in the Italian Wars). Conversely, if France and Spain let the Ottomans keep Italy with no contest or even a short round of wars, allowing the Ottomans to put a two-front squeeze on Hungary and Austria, conquering parts of them and at minimum severely reducing their ability to influence the rest of Europe, where does the focus of German power shift? OTL, the German-speaking world was centered around the south (Austria and Bavaria) at the time, which is why Mittelhochdeutsch sounds a lot like the modern southern dialects. What if the focus of German-language culture/politics had shifted north a bit, to Saxony or even the Baltic coast?

Once again, this is not my area of focus in history and I'm not sure of the other regional German-speaking powers at the time.

Another question--what happens to Switzerland? Does it become a major Christian power base and a location from which to project power into Italy? Its geography lends itself naturally to defense, to it'd be an excellent staging ground for attacks against Ottoman Italy. How do the Swiss, with their fearsome mercenary armies, benefit from this?

Lysandros Aikiedes said:

I thought that the Turks had chosen Christian-born Greeks, Armenians, Slavs, Bulgarians, and Circassians as Janissaries. Are you sure its not the Mamluks you're thinking of?

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Because the Janissaries were technically slaves of the Sultan, the Ottomans only recruited among peoples that had not converted to Christianity at the time of the prophet as a rather thin legal justification around the ban on enslaving Christians and Jews. That limited it to Slavs and Albanians. There were probably some Greeks that got in, but it wasn't general policy.

Kursk said:

Let's say the Ottomans take Italy and keep it for a minimum of a couple centuries or even longer. It's hardly my expert field, but didn't the Ottomans take a portion of the children of their conquered peoples into the army, converting them to Islam and teaching them Ottoman Turkish in the process?

So, if Italy ends up with a significant Muslim population, through the abovementioned process and through immigration within the empire (functionaries and their families and retinues have to come manage the new territories, along with garrison troops, merchants, etc.), does this perhaps eventually lead to less of a percieved cultural divide between Christianity and Islam? East-West is another matter, but would a significant population of Western Muslims reduce the exotic nature of Islam in modern Western popular thought?

Also, I wonder if Austria and Hungary might end up stronger, especially if the Ottomans are getting hammered in Italy by Spain and France (well, at the time, Spain and Austria were ruled by the same people, right? So maybe Austrian troops are being spent in the Italian Wars). Conversely, if France and Spain let the Ottomans keep Italy with no contest or even a short round of wars, allowing the Ottomans to put a two-front squeeze on Hungary and Austria, conquering parts of them and at minimum severely reducing their ability to influence the rest of Europe, where does the focus of German power shift? OTL, the German-speaking world was centered around the south (Austria and Bavaria) at the time, which is why Mittelhochdeutsch sounds a lot like the modern southern dialects. What if the focus of German-language culture/politics had shifted north a bit, to Saxony or even the Baltic coast?

Once again, this is not my area of focus in history and I'm not sure of the other regional German-speaking powers at the time.

Another question--what happens to Switzerland? Does it become a major Christian power base and a location from which to project power into Italy? Its geography lends itself naturally to defense, to it'd be an excellent staging ground for attacks against Ottoman Italy. How do the Swiss, with their fearsome mercenary armies, benefit from this?

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See the other posts about the Janissaries - Italians would not have been recruited. No doubt some people would have converted to Islam, for the improved access to position, or for lower taxes, but I doubt this would be significant. If the Ottomans hold Italy for two centuries, you would probably see a significant Muslim minority, but not a predominant one - probably similar to Hungary. The South would likely have a greater concentration of Muslims than the North, because it starts with a thinner population.

When the Ottomans lose Italy, it would probably happen quickly and completely, like Hungary.

Valdemar II said:

Yes

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Wikipedia said:

The first Janissary units were formed from prisoners of war and slaves, probably as a result of the sultan taking his traditional one-fifth share of his army's booty in kind rather than cash.[3] From the 1380s onwards, their ranks were filled under the devşirme system, where feudal dues were paid by service to the sultan.[3] The "recruits" were mostly Christian youths, reminiscent of Mamelukes.[1] Sultan Murad may have used futuwa groups as a model. Initially the recruiters favoured Greeks (who formed the largest part of the first units) and Albanians[citation needed] (who also served as gendarmes), usually selecting about one boy from forty houses, but the numbers could be changed to correspond with the need for soldiers. Boys aged 14-18 were preferred, though ages 8-20 could be taken.

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So both the Mamluks and the Janissaries recruited from Christians. It's a pretty standard technique for imperialist states--use the people to oppress themselves. Look at the Force Publique in the Belgian Congo for a modern example.