No land taken from Germany.
- Thread starter Ice-Titan
- Start date
This is a non-starter. France would insist on the return of the territory lost in the Franco-Prussian war.
Valamyr
Banned
Prunesquallor said:
Agreed. However, the loss of just Alsace-Lorraine wouldnt upset the Germans too much. They were pretty embittered about losing all their colonies, tho, so Germany could be allowed to keep all her mainland territory minus Alsace-Lorraine, and keep Togo, West Africa and East Africa. (Still loses pacific colonies and SW Africa).
As to what this would create? Well probably a much more stable republic in Germany at first, and less bitterness about the war, less opportunities for the extremists to gain power. Germany would find ways as in OTL to pay only a small fraction of the war reparations and be done with that completely ten years later.
The biggest issue that would arise would be the fate of Austria and the Sudentenland. On the principle of self-determination, these territories were legitimately German. In OTL, there was much hope to assimilate these territories after the war as a way to mend the losses elsewhere. We know how that went.
Obviously, this version of the treaty is much closer to the wishes of Wilson. One big impact is that the US WILL join the League of Nations in TTL, making it substantially more effective, rather than a european club.
I'd expect that in this TL, Germany has much more leeway to work towards union with Austria. Though its banned at first, at Locarno, Germany's anchluss is allowed in exchange for guarantees regarding Alsace-Lorraine.
The Sudentenland issue is trickier. Germany's unwillingness to let it go gives most of Europe severe headaches. In 1933, a diplomatic attempt is made to solve the issue through a treaty signed by a moderate german government that lets the region in the Czechs hands in exchange for economic, cultural and social prerogatives and ties for it's residents.
The collapse of the traditional far right-wing partys in the 1934 elections however pushes the Zentrum to the right. The Conservative-Religious minority government that takes power in 1937 denounce the agreement, strenghten the army and impose sanctions on the Czechs. After Germany threatens to withdraw from the League of Nations, a conference is reunited in Munich where the Sudentenlands are transfered to Germany despite the opposition of the league. The league takes a blow, and the Czechs become economic vassals of Germany.
Afterwards, peace is preserved for a long time in central europe. The German behemoth is able to restore its dignity, military and economy peacefully but the price of this peace is that it's influence and power over Europe never stops to climb. By the turn of the century, powerful German demographics, science and industry makes it the uncontested leader of Europe and the main counterweight to both American and Soviet influence in the world.
I'm not so sure that the colonies were that important to the Germans. I'd always assumed that it was a case of everyone else has got some so I want one too.
Bright day Valamyr
They will still lose Schleswig and lands in the east, by ethnicity. If Poland does not get that land, maybe it will be overrun by Soviets...:hmm:
Second, imposing sanctions on Czechs would do more harm to Germany than Czechoslovakia- in that time, even with less reparations, we would be in better shape than Germany. Also France public opinion was OTL at first strongly pro-Czech, which changed only after Hitler's immense (and overreported) military buildup- which would destroy country just by itself had Hitler not started the war. Without such a build up, what Germans did in order to persuade France to betray its best ally in continental Europe?
They will still lose Schleswig and lands in the east, by ethnicity. If Poland does not get that land, maybe it will be overrun by Soviets...:hmm:
Second, imposing sanctions on Czechs would do more harm to Germany than Czechoslovakia- in that time, even with less reparations, we would be in better shape than Germany. Also France public opinion was OTL at first strongly pro-Czech, which changed only after Hitler's immense (and overreported) military buildup- which would destroy country just by itself had Hitler not started the war. Without such a build up, what Germans did in order to persuade France to betray its best ally in continental Europe?
David S Poepoe
Banned
The creation of the Danzig Corridor is important to giving Poland access to the Baltic for economic reasons.
Leo Caesius
Banned
My impression was that the Sudeten was given to Czechoslovakia just to kick-start the CSR economy, as all the industry in the region was concentrated in the Sudeten. Was there a significant Czech presence in the Sudetenland as well?
If that was the case, the problem could have been solved through German indemnities paid to Czechoslovakia, to be invested in capital.
If that was the case, the problem could have been solved through German indemnities paid to Czechoslovakia, to be invested in capital.
Valamyr
Banned
Poland could be given Lithuania instead of the German polish territory. Since when does the economic fate of upstart nations override the prerogatives of great powers? The only reason Germany lost that land in OTL was its because it was a convenient way to weaken her to the maximum. If the goal is different here, it wont happen.
As for the little scenario I drew leading to a Munich of sorts, well, I did include a military buildup in that. Obviously in similar circumstances the french would probably do the same. They might do so more easily if the leader of Germany isnt a man who wrote a book hellbent on their very destruction. Lets not forget even the western powers knew Czechoslovaquia was an affront to Germany in of itself with the borders it had been given.
As for the Soviets overruning Poland, the Germans will be in a position to deny that if they wish in TTL. Otherwise, well, 1913 borders.
As for the little scenario I drew leading to a Munich of sorts, well, I did include a military buildup in that. Obviously in similar circumstances the french would probably do the same. They might do so more easily if the leader of Germany isnt a man who wrote a book hellbent on their very destruction. Lets not forget even the western powers knew Czechoslovaquia was an affront to Germany in of itself with the borders it had been given.
As for the Soviets overruning Poland, the Germans will be in a position to deny that if they wish in TTL. Otherwise, well, 1913 borders.
POD could be the Allies are doing worse before American troops step in. According to The Great War: An Imperial History by Dr. John Morrow (one of my history professors), if the war had lasted until 1919, the US Expeditionary Force would have gotten up to speed and plowed the Germans under. Then the US would be able to dictate terms. If the US ends up bearing more of the burden, then the US will have more power at the peace table.
Thus we might have a more honest version of "self-determination." Germany would lose some of the territory that it did (the piece taken from Denmark, parts of Silesia), but it would keep some territory it lost and perhaps even be permitted to Anschluss with Austria. The huge # of Socialist voters in Vienna and the conservative Catholic countryside would bolster the German Left and the Catholic parties respectively, which would weaken Prussian dominance in Germany.
Thus we might have a more honest version of "self-determination." Germany would lose some of the territory that it did (the piece taken from Denmark, parts of Silesia), but it would keep some territory it lost and perhaps even be permitted to Anschluss with Austria. The huge # of Socialist voters in Vienna and the conservative Catholic countryside would bolster the German Left and the Catholic parties respectively, which would weaken Prussian dominance in Germany.
The Sudetenland was never German, nor did Germany have any right to in the first place. Given that any bit of land that Germany desired was to be German, regardless of the actual ethnicity, the same rule would apply here. As it was, giving the Sudetenland to Germany in 1938 required some amazing carving on the map, and left something like 800,000 Czechs on the run, while leaving 250,000 Germans inside rump Czechoslovakia.
Also, France would still get the Saar basin for fifteen years. Once Ludendorf destroyed the coal mines of northern France NOTHING Wilson did could have prevented this.
Also, France would still get the Saar basin for fifteen years. Once Ludendorf destroyed the coal mines of northern France NOTHING Wilson did could have prevented this.
The Saar isn't a big issue, as France was never going to annex it.
Now I've never heard those figures about the Sudetenland...I was under the impression is was a region of Czechoslovakia that was majority-German (sort of like SC being majority-black...a minority in the country as a whole, but the regional majority).
Now I've never heard those figures about the Sudetenland...I was under the impression is was a region of Czechoslovakia that was majority-German (sort of like SC being majority-black...a minority in the country as a whole, but the regional majority).
Valamyr
Banned
Sutendenlands were majority german, yes, and obviously under self determination, Germany or Austria both had solid claims to it. Originally Czechs, those regions were progressively Germanized over 400 years of Habsburg rule.
This being said, its true the populations were quite entwindled. The numbers I was aware of were that 600,000 czechs stayed stuck inside the German borders after Munich, whereas about 100,000 germans were left in Czechoslovaquia.
Personally, I think its highly unlikely a strong Germany in central Europe would tolerate the Czech monstruosity as they saw it to hold sway over 4 or 5 million germans (?) a day longer than it was necessary.
The only way to prevent trouble over this might be to leave the whole region under Vienna's rule. Actually, keeping much of the Austrian Empire together might be the best way to avoid German expansion issues.
This being said, its true the populations were quite entwindled. The numbers I was aware of were that 600,000 czechs stayed stuck inside the German borders after Munich, whereas about 100,000 germans were left in Czechoslovaquia.
Personally, I think its highly unlikely a strong Germany in central Europe would tolerate the Czech monstruosity as they saw it to hold sway over 4 or 5 million germans (?) a day longer than it was necessary.
The only way to prevent trouble over this might be to leave the whole region under Vienna's rule. Actually, keeping much of the Austrian Empire together might be the best way to avoid German expansion issues.
Bright day
Hmm... If I Remember Correctly 600 000 Czechs were stuck in Sudetenland after Munich with another several hundred thousands being forcibly expelled. And german figure in Bohenia was IIRC closer to four million, if not less.
Leo
Sudetenland was also given to Czechoslovakia because it had the only defensible terrain ib Bohemia and historically there never existed any Sudetenland.
Also, are going to declare independent Lusatia? AFAIK this was time when Sorbs outnumbered in some regions Germans and Czechs OTL applied for Lusations to be included in our Grand Republic.
Another thing, would not more reasonable Versailles leave Hungary quite stronger? So strong in fact that CSR, KSHS and well Rumania would need some REAL alliance thus actually strengthening their position? A case where Rumanians would be willing to actually let Soviet army through?
Poland- You cannot give it Lithuania- self-determination remember? And East would be declared independent Byelorussija. OTL Poland was saved from being overrun by Soviets by French intevention- where does this help come now through? Throught Poland-hostile Germany, Poland-hostile Lithuania, Poland-hostile Czechoslovakia, Poland-contesting Rumania???
Hmm... If I Remember Correctly 600 000 Czechs were stuck in Sudetenland after Munich with another several hundred thousands being forcibly expelled. And german figure in Bohenia was IIRC closer to four million, if not less.
Leo
Sudetenland was also given to Czechoslovakia because it had the only defensible terrain ib Bohemia and historically there never existed any Sudetenland.
Also, are going to declare independent Lusatia? AFAIK this was time when Sorbs outnumbered in some regions Germans and Czechs OTL applied for Lusations to be included in our Grand Republic.
Another thing, would not more reasonable Versailles leave Hungary quite stronger? So strong in fact that CSR, KSHS and well Rumania would need some REAL alliance thus actually strengthening their position? A case where Rumanians would be willing to actually let Soviet army through?
Poland- You cannot give it Lithuania- self-determination remember? And East would be declared independent Byelorussija. OTL Poland was saved from being overrun by Soviets by French intevention- where does this help come now through? Throught Poland-hostile Germany, Poland-hostile Lithuania, Poland-hostile Czechoslovakia, Poland-contesting Rumania???
Redbeard
Banned
Valamyr said:
Exactly, it was the absense of the Habsburg legitemacy over those areas that created the problem. The more I study that regime/family the more I'm impressed with the ingenuity of the the Habsburgs as an implement to rule multiethnical societies.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
Agh overlooked point.
Yes Habsburgs in the end were not all that bad, but problem was they did not have many good points either and by the end of War were pretty much unwanted by all (as curious side note Czech Monarchist Party, if it ever wins
, plans on approaching surviving Habsburgs first). To keep Habsburgs at power you would need to convince entirety of Czechst o stay in Reich and not just the most knowleadgeable statesmen, that already kew the need (like Masaryk).
Yes Habsburgs in the end were not all that bad, but problem was they did not have many good points either and by the end of War were pretty much unwanted by all (as curious side note Czech Monarchist Party, if it ever wins
, plans on approaching surviving Habsburgs first). To keep Habsburgs at power you would need to convince entirety of Czechst o stay in Reich and not just the most knowleadgeable statesmen, that already kew the need (like Masaryk).Valamyr
Banned
Gladi said:Agh overlooked point.
Yes Habsburgs in the end were not all that bad, but problem was they did not have many good points either and by the end of War were pretty much unwanted by all (as curious side note Czech Monarchist Party, if it ever wins
Not to be overly blunt, but didn't the Habsurgs managed quite well to keep the place locked down nice and tight for 400 years without asking their opinion?
Unless the Entente has soldiers in Czechia itself, which didnt happen in OTL, nothing short of a treaty forcing them to do so will make them leave.
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
Valamyr said:Not to be overly blunt, but didn't the Habsurgs managed quite well to keep the place locked down nice and tight for 400 years without asking their opinion?
Unless the Entente has soldiers in Czechia itself, which didnt happen in OTL, nothing short of a treaty forcing them to do so will make them leave.
Because they no longer had the strength to do so, otherwise they would have. There was no particular Entente drive to dismember the Hapsburg domains - it's just that the constituent parts had no further use for them.
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
Redbeard said:
But it was based upon balance - once the Dual Monarchy was established, the Hapsburgs were doomed, as any change of ethnic balances would be fatal - eventually, demographic change would have become a huge problem, but the annexation of Bosnia-Herzogovina tipped everything over and made WWI the next thing to inevitable.
Valamyr said:Not to be overly blunt, but didn't the Habsurgs managed quite well to keep the place locked down nice and tight for 400 years without asking their opinion?
Unless the Entente has soldiers in Czechia itself, which didnt happen in OTL, nothing short of a treaty forcing them to do so will make them leave.
Bright day
But Entente did have soldiers there, only they were formerly Austrian soldiers
. There were also Hungarian soldiers in Bohemia to keep order, but once Andrassy's note went public they went home themselves, Austrian officials gave order for few more days, but after they realized that nobody listens they went home too.Assuming the return of Alsace-Lorraine to France, allowing Germany to keep the rest of its European borders intact in exchange for the loss of overseas colonies would have done a lot to forestall the rise of a strongly revanchist Nazi movement in Germany. Also, if Versailles had not explicitly prohibted anschluss, it would have gone a long way toward reaffirming the Wilsonian national-self determination principles which were supposed to have governed the settlement.
However, even in OTL, the two countries which really suffered as result of Versailles were Austria and Hungary. Perhaps had Germany not been so severly chopped up, a moderately conservative or even social democratic Gemany (perhaps including Austria) could have arisen in the 1920's with a lot more internal support and not seeking significant revision to the treaty. Hungary would no doubt have still gone extremist one way or the other, but without Germany, the fascist movement would have been far less damaging to world peace.
However, even in OTL, the two countries which really suffered as result of Versailles were Austria and Hungary. Perhaps had Germany not been so severly chopped up, a moderately conservative or even social democratic Gemany (perhaps including Austria) could have arisen in the 1920's with a lot more internal support and not seeking significant revision to the treaty. Hungary would no doubt have still gone extremist one way or the other, but without Germany, the fascist movement would have been far less damaging to world peace.