Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbor: A Failure

December 7, 1941

- 0342: Minesweeper USS Condor reports sighting a submarine periscope outside of Pearl Harbor. Several US destroyers scramble to investigate the report.

- 0550: The Japanese aircraft carriers northwest of Pearl Harbor turn into the wind. The pilots gathered on deck are assured of “certain victory.”

- 0610: The first waves of Japanese aircraft - 183 fighters, bombers, and torpedo planes – roar off the decks of the Japanese carriers. Pilots reconfirm their navigation by using a Honolulu radio station’s music as a guiding beam.

- 0645: Japanese midget submarine surfaces just a quarter-mile from the US destroyer Ward. The USS Ward moves in for the kill The Ward’s captain, Lt. William W. Outerbridge, has been in command for only two days. He orders men to commence firing. The first shot misses. The second strikes the submarine at the waterline. The submarine heels over and appears “to slow and sink.” The Ward assures the sinking by dropping “a full pattern of depth charges.”

- 0653: The USS Ward’s message arrives at 14th Naval Headquarters, Pearl Harbor Naval Station. The message: “We have attacked, fired upon, and dropped depth charges upon submarine operating in defensive sea area.”

POD: Unlike in OTL, Outerbridge panics and sends the message before encoding it. Thus, there is no delay in the time between the message was sent and the time it was decoded, as in OTL.

- 0702: The Army’s Opana Mobile Radar Station is one of six radar stations on Oahu. One of the two privates on duty looks at the radar oscilloscope and can’t believe his eyes. He asks his buddy to take a look—and he confirms the sighting: 50 or more aircraft on a bearing for Oahu. The privates call the Fort Shafter information center, the hub of the radar network.

- 0715: The Ward’s message has, by now, been heard by many across the island of Oahu, including the Commander of the Pacific Fleet, Husband Kimmell, who dismisses the report.

- 0720: An Army lieutenant who is in training at the radio-network operations center at Fort Shafter gets the Opana radar station report: “the biggest sightings” the radar operator had ever seen. By now the planes are about 70 miles (113 kilometers) away. The lieutenant, who heard the Ward’s message, which was broadcast over open airwaves, sends this report up the chain of command.

- 0727: Lt. General Walter C. Short, commander of US Army forces on Hawaii, receives the radar report. Like Kimmell, he does not completely believe the authenticity of the reports, but orders the US Army forces on the island to alert, anyhow. Better to be safe than sorry, he figures.

- 0733: The first warplanes on Hawaii roar aloft. Five P-40 Warhawks of the 47th Pursuit Squadron based at Haleiwa Field in western Oahu meet up with another twenty Warhawks of 18th Pursuit Group based at Wheeler Field.

- 0740: The twenty-five Warhawks receive permission to engage the forty-nine high-altitude bombers, fifty-one dive-bombers, forty torpedo planes, forty-one fighters they spot flying through clouds northwest of Kakuku Point. In a monumental stroke of good luck, the Japanese pilots who had been flying in a cloud bank, fail to spot the Americans until they emerge.

- 0742: Twenty-five American fighters engage the Japanese planes. They tear through the lines of fighter escorts and strike at the vulnerable bombers.

- 0745: Fighters around Oahu roar into the clear, sunny skies. By this time, there are nearly seventy American fighters in the air. More are being readied at Wheeler, Hickam, Haleiwa, and Bellows. Admiral Kimmell finally orders the navy to battle stations.

- 0801: The Japanese first airwave is torn to shreds by nearly one hundred American fighters. During the attack, the Japanese have lost nearly 110 of their 180 planes. The American losses include nineteen P-40 Warhawks and six F4F Wildcats. With US fighters massing in northwestern Hawaii, Air-attack commander Mitsuo Fuchida is forced to order the Japanese strike force to turn around.

- 0839: With Japanese forces returning to their carriers, the American fighters land at their respective airfields to rearm and refuel. A twenty plane combat air patrol continues to run a race-track pattern over Oahu. Meanwhile, the second Japanese air wave claws into the sky.

- 0854: The second attack wave hits. They meet stiff resistance from ground fire but catch nearly fifteen P-40’s on the ground at Wheeler. The 35 Japanese fighters fend off the American air patrol and penetrate to Pearl Harbor itself. Bombers attack the navy yard dry dock and hit the battleship USS Pennsylvania. Another bomber hits oil tanks between the destroyers USS Cassin and USS Downes. Onboard ammunition explodes, and the Cassin rolls off her blocks and into the Downes. They will be the only naval losses of the day.

- 0930: The Japanese strike force turns for home but finds itself confronted by over 100 US fighters. The force is virtually annihilated in its return to the carriers. Of the 167 planes of the second air wave, only 21 make it back to the carriers.

- 1000: Japanese commanders cancel the third attack wave. They reason that it is too risky and the planes are needed to defend the carrier fleet.

- 1200: The Japanese carriers turn for home, their mission a failure.​

American Losses: 41 P-40 Warhawks. 16 F4F Wildcats. 1 Battleship. 2 Destroyers. Total killed: 441.

Japanese Losses: 246 planes. Total Killed: 519.


Now what will happen? Will Kimmell be replaced for delaying the reaction? Will Germany still declare war?
 
Hitler will probably declare war regardless. The success of the Japanese at Pearl Harbor definitely have some influence on the Nazis on declaring war, but from I've studied, the main reason that the Nazis declared war on the US was because they wanted the Japanese open a second front against the Russians at Siberia. Another reason was that Admiral Doeniz encouraged a war against the US, because he believed that the US was a naval power and do not have the capacity to affect European ground operation, and by declaring war on the US he could better demostrate the capability of the kriegsmarine.
 
IMO The American Air losses should be substaintially higher. Remember the Americans at Pearl had never fought the Zero and so had no way of fighting it on anything like even terms. Also remember that the Japanese pilots were the cream of the crop. Yes an increased American fighter presence might prevent the destruction of the fleet but at a high cost to the pilots. Also your Japanese losses are insanely high...
 

Valamyr

Banned
The japanese attack in OTL was already a strategic failure of stunning scope. I doubt it could be really worse, even if its also a tactical failure.

But yes, it might keep the Nazis out of the war for 6 more months.
 
Fearless Leader said:
IMO The American Air losses should be substaintially higher. Remember the Americans at Pearl had never fought the Zero and so had no way of fighting it on anything like even terms. Also remember that the Japanese pilots were the cream of the crop. Yes an increased American fighter presence might prevent the destruction of the fleet but at a high cost to the pilots. Also your Japanese losses are insanely high...

The fist wave of Japanese planes will be badly damaged but I agree not as bad as he thinks. The bombers will take heavy losses as the Americans have suprise and coming from behind and maybe a few Zeros as well since they are on the Zeros six and it takes time for them to turn around. But not to the extent he says. By the time they hit the 100 fighters they are outnumbered prehaps 3:1 in fighters, the Americans will shoot down most of the remaing bombers and shoot down some fighters but also losing quite a few in the exchange. The second attack won't be nearly as bad for the Japanese as they are prepared that time. They will probably lose more to AA then OTL though.
 
Lost at Sea

By the time the second wave arrives, the Fleet will have steam up, and will be manuvering to exit the Harbor. Given that whe have a bearing on the Japs & a idea of where they are, ?will the Battle ships chase after them?
 
DuQuense said:
By the time the second wave arrives, the Fleet will have steam up, and will be manuvering to exit the Harbor. Given that whe have a bearing on the Japs & a idea of where they are, ?will the Battle ships chase after them?


The navy better hope not.. If they do , they get sunk in deep water, probably.
 
Valamyr said:
The japanese attack in OTL was already a strategic failure of stunning scope. I doubt it could be really worse, even if its also a tactical failure.

But yes, it might keep the Nazis out of the war for 6 more months.

It might help Japan in the sense that they could be out of the war BEFORE they get nuked.
 
Planes parked on the ground close together ?

Would it be possible for the USAAF and USMC to actually deploy that many fighters to meet the Japs, given that all aircraft at Pearl Harbour had been parked so closely spaced on the airfield to prevent possible sabotage ?

I also agree that the American fighter pilots would've taken far heavier losses than what's been speculated, given their lack of combat experience vis-a-vis the Jap pilots'.
 
Melvin Loh said:
Would it be possible for the USAAF and USMC to actually deploy that many fighters to meet the Japs, given that all aircraft at Pearl Harbour had been parked so closely spaced on the airfield to prevent possible sabotage ?

I also agree that the American fighter pilots would've taken far heavier losses than what's been speculated, given their lack of combat experience vis-a-vis the Jap pilots'.

Plus the fact that the Zero was a better plane.
 
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