AH challenge - US force projection in Gulf as uncontroversial as in Europe & Pacific

As a result of WWII and the Cold War, the US acquired forward bases in Western Europe and the Pacific Rim which were used to provide deterrence against potential foes and assurance for allies, as a way to proactively keep the balance of power favorable to Washington. That force posture remained even ten years after the fall of the USSR.

Geir Lundestad has called at least the European portion, America's "Empire by invitation".

The predominant reaction in the Pacific Rim and Western Europe was popular support or popular apathy. The prickliest public opinion was found probably in Greece and South Korea. Some portion of the electorate opposed the US presence. The US presence also encouraged social mixing, intermarriage and tourism, even as frictions existed.

The patience of the partners on both sides of the sea went a long way towards preventing further Communist expansion.

It was generally accepted that whatever one felt about the US presence, it was a political or diplomatic issue. French dissatisfaction was resolved by their ouster of NATO and NATO's compliance with that decision. A failure to resolve compensation for the bases resulted in the US evacuation of its Philippine bases with little hard feelings. In other words, governments were deemed competent to make these decisions, France didn't need to reactivate the Maquis to get the US out. At the most extreme, some Greek politicians were soft on the Nov 17th terrorists who narrowly focused their murders on western military reps and diplomats.

Meet the Persian Gulf, where the US presence is seen as a much more critical threat by more people, despite the lack of fraternization with the local population. Furthermore, simply by allowing US forces in, that gave many people the idea that the government (Saudis and other Gulf states) had instantly lost its competence to make such a decision, and furthermore, any agreements for deployment of forces were tantamount to occupation, justifying not only Maquis-style resistance, but a right to use unlimited tactics to get the foreigner to leave.

This obviously made the US doctrine of dual containment of Iran and Iraq, and its protection of GCC states, much more risky than the maintenance of NATO.

Looking around outside the Arabian peninsula for safe, uncomplicated bases for a deterrent force, it doesn't get much better.

In every country on the East coast of Africa, US bases would probably offend some major faction of the population and some rebel group. Same goes for other Indian Ocean areas like Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and Indonesia. Picking up a base almost anywhere in the Indian Ocean would make the US un-neutral in somebody's civil war. That leaves Diego Garcia in the Chagos islands, but thats pretty small and already a bit distant from the area you're trying to stabilize (Persian Gulf). Besides, the Chagos islanders are suing to get their land back, it was confiscated by Britain.

So, the challenge is, set up a situation where the US can have as stable relations with Indian Ocean states as it did with Pacific Rim or West European states, and still be in a position to oppose any would-be local hegemon.

Alternatively, we can flip the what-if and try top construct a situation where the reaction to the US presence was as violent, allergic and disproportionate in West Europe or the Pacific Rim as it has been in OTL's Persian Gulf. In other, make the USA p[olitically radioactive in Europe or Pacific, as in, their presence itself is a defilement kind of radioactive.
 
Kashmir goes to Paksitan. This results in less tensions between India an Pakistan and consequently Pakistan doesn't get military gov't every 2 decades. It develops into somewhat benevolent dictatorship where opposition isn't brutaly supressed. Hence opposition doesn't center around islamists.

With more stable and more long-term pro-western Pakistan US establishes several bases for all services. US and Paksitan enjoy long term alliance which has it's ups and downs but is generally wieved as eneficial by both (like US-ROK or US-Japan).

OR

Something similar happens with Iran. With less opressive Shah opposition isn't centered around islamists and there is no islamic revolution. Though with this scenario US could be seen as allying with Persians/shi'ias against Arabs/sunnis.

OR

Indian support for Tamil separatist in Sri Lanka is more open and bigger which pressures Sri Lankans to ask for US aid which brings them together, opening Sri Lanka for US bases. Though with belligerent India bases can be somewhat vulnerable.

Of course one scenario doesn't exclude others. ;)
 

Straha

Banned
adding all those scenarios together creates some nice interesting butterlflies... President Edmund G. Brown(1993-2001) and his ending of the war on drugs ;) is one butterfly that might happen in said TL>
 
Nice response Aktarian

Pakistan is the best bet, though some folks here on and SHWI have cast doubt on the plausibility of Pakistan getting all Kashmir. I could still see it happening though.

Let's assume out of desire for development aid and fear of Afghanistan, Pakistan still joins CENTO. It having Kashmir makes Pakistan feel more secure but not completely secure.

The alliance is cemented in the early 1960s when the US sends in combat forces to reinforce Pakistani forces trying to reclaim the Ladakh salient from China. Pakistani and US forces jointly regain all Pakistani territory. They run a fairly minor and quixotic supply operation to Tibetan rebels from Kashmir also. As a front-line state against China, matching South Vietnam in Cold War importance, Pakistan gets more aid than OTL.

With poor relations with neighbors like China, India and USSR, Pakistan cleaves tighter the US.

In an ugly side effect, US deterrent posturing deters India from helping Bangladeshi rebels, and with US material support, Pakistan crushes the Bengalis.

The US ends up fighting the Gulf War with Pakistan as part of the coalition. After the war, Saudi Arabia, the US and Pakistan discuss the best regional posture for the US, and decide that for domestic political reasons in Arab countries, Pakistan should remain the hub of US military activity near the Persian Gulf, exercising a deterrent power "over the horizon"
 
raharris1973 said:
The US ends up fighting the Gulf War with Pakistan as part of the coalition. After the war, Saudi Arabia, the US and Pakistan discuss the best regional posture for the US, and decide that for domestic political reasons in Arab countries, Pakistan should remain the hub of US military activity near the Persian Gulf, exercising a deterrent power "over the horizon"

Probably, but not necessary, changed situation would affect Gulf as well significantly altering situation so there isn't GW2. Either this effect inpact Iran as well so no islamic revolution or having US bases on border prevents Iran from puting all it's forces against Iraq in GW1 so it might loose soon. Or not.
 
Heres some possibilities:

1. The Shah stays in power by holding off the mad mullahs and incrementally modernizing and liberalizing. Pre-Ayatolla, Iran and the US had excellent relations. Seems if things still got hairy in the Arab world, the Persians would be willing to allow the US access to Iran.

2. The Indian Sub-Continent Balaknizes. Right now, India is too powerful and uppity to give in to US requests. Add to that, they are direct competitors in the Indian Ocean. I believe if India was split into a bunch of smaller nations, the US could get basing priveleges.

I cant see any other possibilities in the region.
 
Running through the ideas-

I like Pakistan best. Do you think the US participation in the Ladakh war on Pakistan's side makes sense?

Obviously butterflies will mean that if the US ever fights Iraq it will be under somewhat different circumstances and timing.

As for Iran, that makes sense, but it's got to be done the right way. Basing large US forces will still be a touchy subject, one of Khomeini's first political missives was about how Lyndon Johnson was the "worst scum of the earth" for getting the Shah to sign a status of forces agreement in 1964.

Even with Khomeini somehow eliminated, with a PoD after 1953, Iranian revolutions would lean toward anti-Americanism. Maybe premature violent Islamist activism in the 50s or 60s could end up causing the regime not to underestimate the clerics, to be more accomodating to some aspects of popular religious feeling, and might rally the middle class to the regime, a situation more akin to OTL Egypt.

As for Sri Lanka, I think that's an illustration of how we could have had ended up stirring up a different hornet's nest in the Indian Ocean, even if we don't have a permanent presence in the Gulf. Here's how.

If, as Aktarian posits, its in response to increased Indian support for the Tamils, then supporting the Sri Lanka government is going to offend India

Colombo and Tricomalee are great ports, but this is putting the USA into bed with the chauvinistic Sinhalese regime, which many observers have called the worst bunch or torturers and sadists in any ethnic conflict they've seen (The Tamils started to give as good as they got eventually).

The Tamil Tigers, pioneers of suicide bombing, will probably attack US forces on the island, heck they weren't shy about attacking the Indians when the latter cut their support. The Tigers are funded by the expat community, particularly Tamils living in Canada. It wouldn't be beyond possibility for Tigers or Tiger sympathizers, maybe coming from Canada, to launch retaliatory terror attacks in the US.

The idea of a highly divided subcontinent has potential. Especially if there's no violent "Hindutva" movement supporting the concept of a unified Hindu India. In other words, if the various Indian states have a live and let live attitude and have no problem with each other's Westphalian sovereignty, one could provide a base with little blowback.

Other possibilities could arise if Zanzibar, the Maldives ended up as overwhelmingly Catholic, maybe Portuguese speaking.
 
Top