MarshalBraginsky
Banned
I guess this is what Zbigniew Brzezinski meant by the 'Eurasian Balkans': massive ethnic strife from the Balkans, the Caucasus to Central Asia.
I guess this is what Zbigniew Brzezinski meant by the 'Eurasian Balkans': massive ethnic strife from the Balkans, the Caucasus to Central Asia.
Though what ethnic group would suffer the most in Afghanistan come around the War on Terror? There's the Nuristani group which converted to Islam in 1896, which makes them the last pagan group to convert into an Abrahamic faith.
For someone who is more knowledgeable on post-communist Bulgaria, that is without the fact, the greatest idea that you came up with. Would Simeon II try and get Macedonia to come closer to Bulgaria through the naming dispute involving Macedonia and Greece?
I'm afraid that your version of events of Bulgaria in the early 90s is not accurate at all. First, there were no Communists after 1990; not only did they rename themselves as Socialists, but they abandoned Communist ideology and in fact set in motion many of the dubious free market reforms that caused trouble later on. Secondly, apart from the fact that UDF narrowly won the second free elections in 1991, (after soundly losing the first in 1990), it was their own prime minister who called for a vote of confidence, and he lost it due to a fraction of his own party and his coalition partner, the MRF, abandoning him. Thirdly, the government that was formed after that was not led by the Socialists, but by Lyuben Berov, a moderate economist, who more or less followed in a milder form the policies of his predecessor. Fourth, BSP came in power after winning the next parliamentary elections in 1994 and protests didn't begin until January 1997, after the hyperinflation (and no, that didn't happen due to BSP "seizing economic power").I have followed this timeline pretty closely in the last couple of weeks and I love it. I read from the beginning to the end and it is awesome.
If I may inject on the Bulgaria part, in the 1990s and 1991s the Bulgarian government was especially unstable. At first the UDF (a loose coalition of democratic parties) faced off against the now renamed communists and won, but then in 1991 the renamed communists held a vote of no confidence and seized power again. People begun to protest and riot but the old communist guard moved quickly to try to consolidate their power and transfer their political power into economic such, which in turn caused a massive hyperinflation and political unrest. Now, there are several ways to play the 'wildcard' idea.
Now regarding the time line, the UDF might do even worse in the 1991 elections. At this point Zhirinovsky wouldn't have done much to be seen as a threat and the UDF's alliance with the ethnic Turkish party MRF would be awkward if Zhirinovsky brandishes this map. BSP will probably still lose, though some of the UDF breakaway factions might get into parliament this time. In this case, a moderate right-wing coalition government may be formed which may survive for a full term.First of all, the massive crisis coupled with events around the country, could lead to parties brandishing anti-communist slogans to sweep to power, but what is most likely is a combined front of democrats, nationalists and everyone who is not Communist to take the government down (like it happened in 1997). If somehow in those riots you manage to get the Nationalists (nominally IMRO or a gathering of parties such as the Bulgarian National-Radical Party) to come into the central spotlight (Perhaps via opposition to the Romanian avocation of Greater Romania which includes Southern Dobruja) you can have them win some gains.
I wouldn't say that this is ASB, but it's close. The demoralized military was never on the brink of carrying out a coup, and especially not against the socialists (who after all opposed the destruction of the missile arsenal). And unless the minds of the Bulgarian military leadership were replaced by those of the Japanese army in the 1930s, there is less than a snowflake's chance in hell of any attempt at "Balkan hegemony".The Second idea I had is, following the first idea, with riots similar to those in 1997 and people not being able to consolidate, growing radicalism and American pressure to scrap Bulgaria's significant missile arsenal, including 67 SCUD-B, 50 FROG-7 and 24 SS-23 ballistic missiles. In 2002, Bulgaria disbanded the Rocket Forces despite nationwide protests, but the US was advocating for that ever since Bulgaria's transition started. So taking all that into consideration, we can see that the military was on the brink of coup-ing the country and would have had enough of all the bullshit the communists caused, which could lead to a renewed Bulgarian drive for rearmament and Balkan hegemony.
There is a difference between winning parliamentary elections (and this didn't happen until both parties had become very unpopular) and a restoration of the monarchy. But even if the monarchy was restored it would be a constitutional monarchy, probably with a right-wing government. Macedonia is part of the UIS in this time line (according to the first post in the thread), so no Bulgarian government would dare to intervene there.The third idea I had, is with the conflicts starting and everything going to hell, the Tsar (Simeon II) returns early and instead of advocating for becoming a prime minister, he advocates for the restoration of the monarchy. He had huge support for that, with half a million Bulgarians flocking to him when he arrived for the first time in 1997 (I think), yelling "We want our Tsar". So such a restoration will put the mindful and cultured Tsar on the throne, meaning that he will be separated between wanting to join NATO and being under pressure from the UIS' war machine in Romania and Bosnia. So he will make some concessions to the UIS, but also involve himself more in Macedonia, providing a helping hand and fostering close relations that might lead to Macedonia and Bulgaria signing agreements that will unify them in all but name.
I'm afraid that your version of events of Bulgaria in the early 90s is not accurate at all. First, there were no Communists after 1990; not only did they rename themselves as Socialists, but they abandoned Communist ideology and in fact set in motion many of the dubious free market reforms that caused trouble later on. Secondly, apart from the fact that UDF narrowly won the second free elections in 1991, (after soundly losing the first in 1990), it was their own prime minister who called for a vote of confidence, and he lost it due to a fraction of his own party and his coalition partner, the MRF, abandoning him. Thirdly, the government that was formed after that was not led by the Socialists, but by Lyuben Berov, a moderate economist, who more or less followed in a milder form the policies of his predecessor. Fourth, BSP came in power after winning the next parliamentary elections in 1994 and protests didn't begin until January 1997, after the hyperinflation (and no, that didn't happen due to BSP "seizing economic power").
Now regarding the time line, the UDF might do even worse in the 1991 elections. At this point Zhirinovsky wouldn't have done much to be seen as a threat and the UDF's alliance with the ethnic Turkish party MRF would be awkward if Zhirinovsky brandishes this map. BSP will probably still lose, though some of the UDF breakaway factions might get into parliament this time. In this case, a moderate right-wing coalition government may be formed which may survive for a full term.
Now the UDF government was strongly pro-Western. In fact, they might well ask for admission into NATO after Zhirinovsky begins to look threatening. In any case, when the next election comes around, the UDF might capitalize on the threat posed by Zhirinovsky to weaken BSP. At this point nationalist parties had little influence in Bulgaria and the activities of the UIS are unlikely to change this, as the only possible irredentist target is Macedonia and that is under Serbian influence. And with all the problems Romania has, moving against Bulgaria is rather unlikely. If the socialists still win, that doesn't at all mean an alliance with UIS - their general foreign policy since the democratic reforms has been a balance between Russia and the West. If the UDF wins, they will probably carry on a pro-western policy.
I wouldn't say that this is ASB, but it's close. The demoralized military was never on the brink of carrying out a coup, and especially not against the socialists (who after all opposed the destruction of the missile arsenal). And unless the minds of the Bulgarian military leadership were replaced by those of the Japanese army in the 1930s, there is less than a snowflake's chance in hell of any attempt at "Balkan hegemony".
There is a difference between winning parliamentary elections (and this didn't happen until both parties had become very unpopular) and a restoration of the monarchy. But even if the monarchy was restored it would be a constitutional monarchy, probably with a right-wing government. Macedonia is part of the UIS in this time line (according to the first post in the thread), so no Bulgarian government would dare to intervene there.
I see now that Pellegrino was reconsidering Macedonia being a member of the UIS. Still, with a stronger Serbia, Macedonia will be under even stronger Serbian influence, so it would probably still be unwise to interfere there. On the other hand, Serbia might overplay its hand and attempt to directly control Macedonia. In this case, the pro-Serbian Social Democratic party might might be discredited and (unlike in OTL) a pro-Bulgarian IMRO to come to power. In this case, Macedonia could well become a Bulgarian ally, though an union would be still unlikely.Without a doubt he will try to get everyone around him as close as possible to Bulgaria. Obviously, Romania will be a no go, Serbia as well, but Greece and Macedonia will probably be natural allies. However Greece itself had close relations with Serbia, even going as far as helping them in the conflict, now knowing this, Simeon will probably side with Macedonia on the naming dispute and on many other disputes. As Macedonia will become Bulgaria's only regional credible ally.
I don't think that Bulgaria would alienate Greece. In OTL, Bulgaria supported Macedonia on most issues until fairly recently, but still has friendly relations with Greece. This will be even more important with an unstable Romania and with Serbia that is a member of the UIS (and probably in an imperialist mood).Another ally, he can find in the region will be Turkey, being diplomatically isolated thanks to being surrounded by ether UIS aligned states or nationalist such, he will seek close relations to Turkey under the table, while he tries to play Zhirinovsky's allies around him that he is UIS aligned. Siding with Macedonia over Greece may be actually seen as a good thing, since Greece is a member of NATO and we all know the UIS' position on NATO (and Zhiri's opinion that Bulgaria should annex Macedonia) and actually draw his positions to the UIS. So the whole Bulgarian position will be trying to carve its own middle ground, between NATO and the UIS with no hope of ether of them giving any fucks about it other then advancing their own interests. So in this situation the Tsar will try to do what is best for his country while avoiding evil looks from each of the super powers.
While you were mistaken on some details, you gave me some ideas on how Bulgaria might develop in this time line, so your post is welcomeAgreed on all those things, apparently working off the top of my memory isn't working out too well for me. Ill try and do my research next time. Kind of embarrassing since its our own history i screwed up.
Interesting switch-up you've got going with the Civil War, especially that the UTO* and the UIS are now bedfellows.
I would only make two comments based on what you have thus far:
1) Rahmonov (he doesn't become Rahmon until the 2000s IOTL, when he makes a decree the -ov suffix isn't properly Tajik) is a poor choice for leader of "Tajikistan" at this point. IOTL, he basically got the job because he was a weak candidate between the population centers in Leninabad/Khatlon and Kulob, and no one expected him to run with it. If the Communists are in a weaker position ITTL, they'll want someone much stronger, and they might even rally behind someone like Nuri (Hizb-e Nazahat-i Islami), just because he can inspire people.
2) Likewise, the UIS will not back a Pamiri. If anything, given Pamiri demands IOTL, and given Zhirinovsky's track-records with autonomous regions, he'll either give 'Gorno/Kuhistoni Badakhshan" independence, or he'll turn into a part of the Russian UIS (this is concerned popular IOTL).
Other than that, great work! I've done research on the Civil War, and it's not an easy conflict to understand, even as far as post-Soviet wars go.
I have followed this timeline pretty closely in the last couple of weeks and I love it. I read from the beginning to the end and it is awesome.
I see now that Pellegrino was reconsidering Macedonia being a member of the UIS. Still, with a stronger Serbia, Macedonia will be under even stronger Serbian influence, so it would probably still be unwise to interfere there. On the other hand, Serbia might overplay its hand and attempt to directly control Macedonia. In this case, the pro-Serbian Social Democratic party might might be discredited and (unlike in OTL) a pro-Bulgarian IMRO to come to power. In this case, Macedonia could well become a Bulgarian ally, though an union would be still unlikely.
I don't think that Bulgaria would alienate Greece. In OTL, Bulgaria supported Macedonia on most issues until fairly recently, but still has friendly relations with Greece. This will be even more important with an unstable Romania and with Serbia that is a member of the UIS (and probably in an imperialist mood).
While you were mistaken on some details, you gave me some ideas on how Bulgaria might develop in this time line, so your post is welcome
So Türkmenbashi finally makes a brief appearance. I was wondering when he was going to show up. Next question: is Türkmenbashi going to be as crazy as he was in OTL?