Yasser Arafat's Great Gamble:

[Snake Featherston]

Gaza City, a meeting of the Hamas Leadership:

Sheik Yassin, speaking from his wheelchair, and having concluded another conversation with Abu Amar spoke confidently to his fellow conspirators.

"The leadership of the Tunisians believes that it can and it will secure from the Zionist Entity an independent enclave here, in Gaza. What we must do is ensure that the Tunisians do not control this area, but instead that we do. The Tunisians have too many godless men who do not focus enough on liberation of Al-Aqsa and Al-Quds, and their concept that any true followers of Allah will ever fully accept a partition of our homeland is sorely misguided. For now, we persist in this concept of a unified bloc with Abu Amar.

But if he thinks he is in full control of us, and that we are like Abu Mazzin, Abu Iyad, and his other cronies, then that man is sorely mistaken. He rules for personal profit, and nothing more, and he is a man who seeks to have adulation for power alone. He is neither a true Muslim, nor is he a true representative of the Palestinian people. He is bewitched by Sharon's promises, and he thinks that we, who have been here since the start of our great Intifada when he was in exile in Tunis will be his good friends? No.

For now, we build and we establish a government whose piety, whose honesty is unshakeable. We are not the servants of Abu Amar, and we will not permit the Zionist Entity to carve our lands like a watermelon and leave us with the seeds. For now we hold out the olive branch and ignore the freedom fighter's gun in the other hand. But when the Zionist Entity leaves, we show Fatah that it is in truth Hataf, and that we are Aish."

The intense eyes of Sheik Yassin now took on a predatory look, as he desired to show Abu Amar the folly in assuming as someone so used to the wars waged by freedom fighters that in the type of game they played he could ever trust the words of others in similar situations.....

 

[lloyd007]

Well, Arafat's *trying* to engineer Sharon's going into a full-fledged attack and giving Arafat a great moral and political victory without actually conceding anything. Sharon's really not believing any of it and is trying repeatedly to trip up Arafat by getting him to once again do what he usually does and betray the agreement. Murphy's Law affects both sides, of course, and Arafat's focus on Sharon doing what Arafat would have done, of course, also neglects that Sharon is not Arafat.

The Gaza Strip becomes in this case a litmus test by both sides to see if this is really a sincere deal or just another attempt to get a cease fire in order for both sides to strengthen each other. Arafat's not intending to concede a thing, but he's trying to play for time, Sharon's just playing for time and trying to keep the fighting from renewing itself as long as possible so Israel can swing its fist loaded with brass knuckles and a rock and fully end Arafat's Intifada.

Sharon has no need to start shooting first, but Arafat naturally doesn't think this way and keeps trying to get Sharon to do what he neither needs to do nor has any particular rationale to do.

TL;DR: They're not exactly ready for them here either, they're trying to bluff each other into shooting first to restart major fighting.

I'm liking this storyline because it does have Arafathead trying to bluff Sharon into striking first when all Sharon is planning is to turtle up, weather whatever first strike the Palestinians unleash with ease and then bring down the hammer (also known as OTL post 9/11).

Point 2 is true, but Point 1 is not. Sharon didn't really give a shit about international opinion, but he knows he can't humiliate the United States by launching an unprovoked assault on the Palestinians. He can swing as hard as he wants as soon as the truce is broken, but he can't hit first. That would make Bush look like a sucker, and would give the Palestinians a huge moral victory. I would expect the BDS movement to get a massive boost from a move like that, even in the USA.

More to the point, Sharon cares about the 'international opinion' of exactly one nation, the USA. It's how he was able to do what he did OTL after 9/11, since after that Arafat went from being the somewhat legitimate leader of the Palestinians to an old terrorist who should have been taken out long ago and the Palestinian cause for freedom went from, again, somewhat legit to flat out terrorism.

That's the main reason why, imo, Barack Obama can't even make a dent in his efforts to get any wiggle room at all in negotiations of Palestinian statehood, much less what I think he truly wanted, which was a return to the Clinton era where negotiations actually were fluid rather than Israel presenting the diplomatic version of a software agreement, where it's either 'accept' or 'deny'. Considering his chastisements of Israel last year earned him a bi partisan smackdown from congress I doubt this will be changing outside of the Israelis committing something patently and completely unjustifiable.

 

[Snake Featherston]

I'm liking this storyline because it does have Arafathead trying to bluff Sharon into striking first when all Sharon is planning is to turtle up, weather whatever first strike the Palestinians unleash with ease and then bring down the hammer (also known as OTL post 9/11).

Well, this *is* the kind of combination of thuggery and misjudgment that made Arafat the....unique...figure that he was. Ironically Arafat's success here in taming the violence between Palestinian movements and the Israelis is going to have longer-term effects ITTL than Arafat himself realizes.

More to the point, Sharon cares about the 'international opinion' of exactly one nation, the USA. It's how he was able to do what he did OTL after 9/11, since after that Arafat went from being the somewhat legitimate leader of the Palestinians to an old terrorist who should have been taken out long ago and the Palestinian cause for freedom went from, again, somewhat legit to flat out terrorism.

That's the main reason why, imo, Barack Obama can't even make a dent in his efforts to get any wiggle room at all in negotiations of Palestinian statehood, much less what I think he truly wanted, which was a return to the Clinton era where negotiations actually were fluid rather than Israel presenting the diplomatic version of a software agreement, where it's either 'accept' or 'deny'. Considering his chastisements of Israel last year earned him a bi partisan smackdown from congress I doubt this will be changing outside of the Israelis committing something patently and completely unjustifiable.

While here ITTL Arafat cares about three things: 1) getting a moral victory on the cheap while giving up and yielding on absolutely nothing, 2) ensuring that the Israelis are shown to be the big, bad guys on camera, and 3) if nothing else trying to secure an even better situation to attack Israel from in the Gaza Strip than what he currently has now.

With the irony that Sheik Yassin sees this exact same potential and is intending to block Arafat from muscling into what he and Al-Awda are going to try to do themselves. Given how Arafat reacted to this kind of intrigue when done by Not-Arafat......

Meanwhile Ariel Sharon's getting ready to drop the hammer when the other shoe falls and knowing that in being restrained and handling this in a fashion suitable to peace he's getting better PR in the United States....

 

[Snake Featherston]

Gaza City, a meeting of Sheik Yassin and Abd Al-Aziz Awda:

The two leaders of the two movements that sought a Palestine that was a truly Islamic one met, the one sitting, the other in his wheelchair. The two had met and initially exchanged small-talk and pleasantries, before getting down to business.

"The Fatah wish to control the Gaza Strip if their accord with the Zionist Entity goes as planned. I will not have Abu Amar bring his corruption and chaos here, we must fight for our land with the disciplined soul and honor of Mujahidin. Not with the kind of clownishness that Abu Amar has shown in Jordan and in Beirut. We cannot afford to lose yet another base for our movements and our people. I consider this current cease-fire to be a positive thing as it means that we can build our own bases while Abu Amar's attention is focused on the puppetmasters of the Zionist Entity and that Entity in themselves.

The government that Abu Amar has, as we both know, is rife with corruption and misrule, and there are those vocal members of his security forces who still demand that we must be suppressed, our two movements, as a challenge to law and order."

Awda responded "Sheik, are you suggesting we go to war with Fatah now?"

Yassin shook his head. "No, this would endanger everything. As yet there is no clear indication that these plans for Gaza will even happen. We two need to be absolutely certain to rein in our own movements, so as to ensure that things look peaceful to Abu Amar and to the Zionist Entity. If Sharon should do what he says he will, the margin of opportunity will be narrow, but real. And unlike those fools in Lebanon who challenged Abu Amar in the good graces of the heretics of Damascus, we shall challenge Abu Amar from his own successes."

Awda was silent for a few minutes, his eyes closed, chin on his hands which were steepled, deep in thought. Looking at Sheik Yassin, he said:

"Supposing we do this, how do we split responsibilities and government in our movements?"

Yassin responded:

"An excellent question. It is my belief that we should form a United Mujahidin Front. Abu Amar will try to play us off against each other otherwise, and we who are of the party of the faithful cannot risk being the proxies whereby Abu Amar brings his misrule and corruption here."

Awda then said:

"All right, I shall consult with my men and we'll begin setting this up. To repeat my understanding, this is all provisional until we know if there will in fact *be* a disengagement by the Zionist Entity from the Strip?"

Yassin: "Yes, that is so. Otherwise we will be planning for gold when we may not even find manure."

 

[Snake Featherston]

From The Cease-Fire in the Palestinian Territories: A moment for Hope, by Fareed Zakaria:

The cease-fire now in its second week in the Palestinian territories offers an indication that a true peace may well be around the corner. For the first time Palestinian officials are making serious crackdowns on the continual anti-Israeli propaganda that has otherwise characterized the media in the Palestinian Authority's territorial boundaries, and Palestinian officials have both made sweeping crackdowns on terrorists and explicitly denounced criticisms of this new peace policy. In the wake of the preceding violence this offers a sign that perhaps the Palestinian-Israeli crisis may be nearing a solution.

In contrast to the violence that marred the discussions of the Oslo Accords, in the meetings in Paris that are now beginning the Palestinians and Israelis both are avoiding any kind of provocations here. The speeches made by Chairman Arafat and Israeli PM Sharon appear to have started a new, hopeful period in the politics of both these regions. Yasser Arafat has been a sharply and bitterly controversial man, and it would be a true sign of progress for this situation and for international law were this to be a clear break with previous patterns.

This conflict, marked by a long and violent set of fitful negotiations since Oslo, appears to be turning around a corner. It remains to be seen, however, if Chairman Arafat and Prime Minister Sharon can be an unlikely pair of true peacemakers, ones who now know that their agreements can be adhered to by both sides.

 

[Snake Featherston]

From Beware of the PLO Bearing Gifts, by Cal Thomas:

The current cease-fire in the Palestinian territories has produced a great deal of hope in the liberal, anti-religious, anti-Israel media. Yasser Arafat, who has claimed to have no influence or control over terrorism repeatedly, and who has lied in every single previous time he has made this claim has decreed a cease-fire and now movements of fanatical, anti-Western, radical Islam are not firing so much as a stray bullet on his order.

Is the world so mad, so desiring for peace that it does not notice the man behind the curtain? If Yasser Arafat really did not have any power over these movements, then how is it that they have so suddenly ceased firing on his direct order? If he has really rescinded his claims to want the complete destruction and annihilation of Israel, why should he be trusted now instead of as in the Oslo Accords when he was given still more dramatic promises than here and reacted violently? This man represents a movement that in its very nature is implacably hostile to Israel, and to the virtues of democracy, peace, and good-will inherent in American civilization. It is a shame and a disgrace that President Bush embraces these Paris talks, and if the West should begin to surrender territories God has promised the Jews to these terrorists then God's warnings about abandoning His Chosen people shall indeed bear fruit.

This cease-fire is not some great moment for peace, it rather is an indication that Yasser Arafat is a far more dangerous and cunning man than he is made out to be by nearly all of his enemies and supporters alike.

 

[Archibald]

Murphy's Law

That's the thing. Never, never underestimate the evil effect of that law. Combined with the butterfly effect, they are powerful enough to turn Arafat and Sharon into gay lovers.
I seriously like this TL. Does it is born from desesperation over the never ending conflict ?

 

[Snake Featherston]

That's the thing. Never, never underestimate the evil effect of that law. Combined with the butterfly effect, they are powerful enough to turn Arafat and Sharon into gay lovers.
I seriously like this TL. Does it is born from desesperation over the never ending conflict ?

Actually it's born from reading biographies of Yasser Arafat and a comment in one of them of "if Arafat had made a serious proposal for peace and Sharon had turned it down he'dve won a moral victory without having to concede anything." I wondered if that was possible but even Sharon was not *that* dumb. So then I got the idea "Suppose Arafat makes such a proposal and Sharon accepts" and then this TL.

 

[Snake Featherston]

Ramallah:

"Abu Amar", implored Ghassan Shaqawa, "I beg of you, let us prepare actions against those lawless men in the Strip. Those religious fanatics, Abu Amar, would gladly wreck everything that we have planned. We have peace for the time being, and we know also that they do not like the Fatah, so why then should we allow them the chance to stab us in the back?"

Arafat, listening in silence then sat up when the words said sunk in. "You believe they scheme like those Zionist-Syrian puppets who attempted to stab me in the back in Lebanon?"

Shaqawa nodded "I do indeed. Security agency troops have detected that they are starting to build the infrastructure of a full-fledged state. Abu Amar, we cannot have our people divided, and these men are concerned solely for their vision of utopia."

Arafat remained silent for a time. "If Yassin thinks this......thank you, Ghassan. It has been a good thing you have brought this to my attention."

___________________

The next day, Ramallah:

"Ghassan was murdered? By whom?" barked Arafat into a phone. The tearful voice on the other end said "By men in masks, who used automatic rifles. They said "For the Islamic United Front! Death to the Infidel!".

Arafat, stunned said "Thank you for the news."

Then he summoned the leaders of Force 17 for a secretive meeting that lasted a full seven hours, before going on official Palestinian Television once more:

"The murder of Mr. Saqawa by cowardly dogs who preferred to veil their faces and to shoot him with the weapons of savages is an act condemned without hesitation by the Palestinian Authority. Such acts, portending the division of our people, are a crime against not just peace alone, but against the Palestinian people also. The perpetrators of these cowardly and mendacious acts shall be punished with the fullest severity of the law. These acts are contrary to all wishes of establishment of a civilized country, with rule of law, and we shall not tolerate such indiscriminate action."

 

[Snake Featherston]

The same day, Gaza City:

Sheik Yassin and Abd Al-Aziz Awda swore when watching the television. "That damned son of a dog! We told him to silence Saqawa, not send people to murder him. Damn him, we'll have more problems now." Awda then turned to the Sheik:

"I told you we should never trust Abu Amar. This man is a treacherous, faithless pig, and he has never met a deal he has not broken yet."

Yassin, silent and glowering at the screen then said "If he wants this kind of confrontation, he shall indeed have it. But we shall have to avoid being this overt for some time, we do not know what Abu Amar may otherwise plan to do."

_______________

Office of the Israeli Prime Minister:

Sharon: "So Dahlan's on the phone, eh? What does Arafat want now? To tell me that he'll kill all the citizens of the settlements if I don't evacuate Gaza in three days?"

The man sighed and handed Sharon the phone. He heard the voice of Muhammad Dahlan and his eyes widened slightly at what he heard: "Chairman Arafat wishes you to know he condemns the murder of Ghassan Shaqawa and he wishes to warn you that he fears Hamas and Islamic Jihad may be trying to form a movement to sabotage the Accords. He will not officially accept this, he politically cannot officially accept this.

Right now he wishes for a peaceful discussion concerning Gaza and he wishes to state off the record and unofficially that an attempt by Hamas to end-run what is agreed to by Israel and the Palestinian Authority will never be accepted by the Palestinian Authority."

Sharon: "This has been said many times before, why is it that I should believe it now?"

Dahlan: "Because Ghassan spoke to Abu Amar and was murdered the night after he did. Abu Amar is outraged, but he will never state the degree of his outrage publicly. As I said, he is unable to challenge Hamas in a manner that will endanger the accord, and he will never accept either movement attempting to intimidate him."

Sharon: "So what am I supposed to do about it?"

Dahlan: "Only know that if such things happen we always and forever condemn them, and that if Hamas and Islamic Jihad should meet the iron hand of the IDF, that we shall not be crying in our sleep about it. Officially, of course, Abu Amar will never say any such thing."

Sharon: "Shalom."

Dahlan: "Salaam."

 

[Snake Featherston]

Ramallah:

Arafat paced, angry and frightened. It was now the end of the second week of the total cease-fire, and since the murder of Ghassan he was both worried and angered by the actions the growing attempt to unite Hamas and Islamic Jihad had taken there, the cold-blooded murder of someone who had warned him. Since his defeat in Beirut he had been somewhat detached from the Palestinians here in what was now the Authority, but he would be damned if he'd let some religious charlatans menace his own monopoly on power for the sake of their dreams of a theocracy.

Had the prospect of attacks on the Zionist Entity been foremost on his mind, he as always would have deplored these things to the Zionist Entity and particularly to the United States and privately planned all details of it. Now, facing the prospect that when he seriously needed silence, both to ensure Sharon would shoot first, and now when the prospect of a totally free and unchallenged base for the national struggle beckoned like a beacon in a storm, he would not and could not allow either Sheik Yassin or Abd Al-Aziz Awda to disrupt his plans. But how to move against either of these men, who had better claims to leadership here in the Palestinian Authority than he did, when he himself had been complicit in much that they had already done?

Dahlan came in after knocking on his door and Arafat had said "Enter." Dahlan told him that Sharon had been skeptical but not outright hostile to the statements made and wished to know why he should trust them. Arafat, sensing the glimmer of an opportunity to start seriously securing *his*, not Yassin's or Awda's base for an attack on Israel, decided to respond to this by asking to arrange a phone conversation between himself and Sharon......

 

[Snake Featherston]

Office of the Israeli Prime Minister, phone call between Arafat and Sharon:

Arafat: "You ask what it is that you should do about the potential of a joint movement of religious fanatics, committed to a violent and treacherous distortion of my religion, committed to breaking the peace and condemning our people to a renewal of the cycle of violence?"

Sharon: "I do ask this indeed, yes."

Arafat: "The answer is simple: we two, who have the chance for a sincere and a full peace between our two peoples on this common holy land should not allow them to disrupt them. It is not solely what *you* should do, Brother Sharon, it is what you and *I* can do."

Sharon: "So what precisely do you have in mind?"

Arafat: "For the immediate time being, this peace is the best thing that our two peoples can aspire to. I have already said that I denounce these actions in the uttermost terms. I shall ensure that this scheme shall be thwarted by all means in my power, and I am also willing to have our intelligence agencies and security forces work together with the Mossad to thwart this if needs be. Strictly under the table, you understand."

Sharon: "I shall repeat to you what I asked Dhalan: why should I take this offer sincerely?"

Arafat: "Such a thing as what Yassin and Awda propose is a menace to the two of us both, and I shall never permit such thugs to menace our plans."

Sharon: "........"

Sharon: "Very well, then. We shall see. When is it precisely that you and I shall meet in Paris?"

Arafat: "I believe that we shall seek to have a clear-cut set of agreements on the Gaza Strip, first. Yassin and Awda have but emphasized the gravity of this situation."

 

[Snake Featherston]

May, 2001: Negotiations and Plots and Intrigues, Oh My:

As the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority's spokesmen continued, three major sticking points appeared. The Israelis wished for guarantees that Gaza would not be used as a springboard for attacks against them, and proof that this would be adhered to. Here the Palestinians were most typically evasive in the usual fashion, though the growing hostility and simmering rhetorical barbs and darts exchanged between Arafat on the one side and Awda and Yassin on the other indicated that the problem was as much one between Palestinian factions as any kind of attempts to disregard the Accords, at least to outside observers.

The second was the Palestinian demand for total freedom in air space and ports, something that neither Israel nor Egypt was willing to concede, but both were willing to concede the Palestinian Authority would be able to fairly and legitimately collect all duties on the Ports and that security there would be for the Palestinian National Security Forces to handle.

The third was the withdrawal from the settlements there, which produced the first set of backlashes against Sharon by the Israeli public, and which Sharon reacted to by strong speeches against "People who would thwart peace just as it is starting to appear at its nearest."

In the Palestinian Authority Arafat began to prepare carefully and as he hoped unobtrusively as possible a set of actions that would be aimed at the Hamas-Islamic Jihad duumvirate that were beginning to prepare their own counter-actions. His desire the whole time was to secure as much control over the Gaza Strip as possible, in order that he proceed further into Stage Two of the end of his enemy, the Zionist Entity. He would not allow Hamas or Islamic Jihad to interfere with these plans and was somewhat astonished that the Israelis saw this as him being willing to crack down where he had previously refused to and was deliberately exploiting this impression.

In the United States the Bush Administration, through the triumph of Colin Powell's faction of advisors, was working strongly to mediate differences between the Israelis and Palestinians on the issues in the Gaza Strip, the President convinced that peacemaking would be a way to start his Administration off on a good footing. Opinion polls showed that the strong efforts and evident good results were putting President Bush's approval ratings quite high in terms both of US public opinion and goodwill abroad, where the image of Colin Powell and George Bush working strongly for peace also contributed to a positive image of the United States in global opinion polls.

In the background, unknown to all but offering unknown to one the great opportunity he would also later seize, an ominous plan continued to gather steam and to move, preparing what would blindside the United States and the entire world......

 

[Snake Featherston]

June 2001: They Shall Beat Their Swords Into Ploughshares:

The discussions that began in this month in secret, uniting Arafat's security forces with those of Mossad, marked an unusual step, joint Israeli-PA planning targeted at one Palestinian faction. To Arafat the increasing militancy and step-by-step process he saw of Hamas and Islamic Jihad co-opting the functions of government in the Gaza Strip were a spanner in the works to his plans if allowed unimpeded. As it was his actions against them were but preparing the Israelis for him ultimately moving in armed forces anyway, and in this sense he came to view an attack and war against Hamas and Islamic Jihad as serving his ultimate motive regardless: the crushing of the Islamists would ensure that the Palestinian Authority had that base and once he got his arms in, the Israelis would hardly let him take them out if it meant Hamas would spring back to life like the villain in an American horror movie the moment he left.

For their part Hamas and Islamic Jihad continued the efforts to merge their movements, working out their disagreements where they were, and establishing at the simplest level the United Islamic Palestinian Front, a joint armed force which was carefully and quietly amassing its own arms, and emphasizing strongly Arafat's corruption and his attempts to partition the sacred soil of the Holy Land while leaving Al-Quds and Al-Aqsa in Jewish hands.

For its part the US government and public opinion missed many of these nuances in Arafat's actions and in the actions of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, preferring to view it as Arafat indeed turning new leafs. The first of a new set of foreign aid money began to arrive in the Palestinian Authority, some good amount of which Arafat squirreled away in his private accounts, others of which he used to strengthen his control over the Al-Aqsa Martyr's Brigade, Force 17, and his more regular security forces. If he was going to fight Hamas and Islamic Jihad, with or without Israeli aid in any serious sense, he needed to be absolutely and strictly sure his forces were willing to follow his lead. Ironically and unknown to Arafat many in his own security forces were prepared to jump at the chance.........

 

[Snake Featherston]

July 2001: A warning and the hardening of lines:

In July of 2001, the CIA Director, George Tenet, received warning that Al-Qaeda was planning a major terrorist attack on US soil. Beginning discussions with National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice, Tenet was frustrated by a relatively aloof and cold reception as Rice seemed both focused on other, less relevant matters and somewhat disgruntled in general. To an extent this reflected her disenchantment with the ongoing negotiations in the Israeli-Palestinian Affair and the degree to which the Administration in her view was far too wholesale believing Arafat's own statements and promises. Condi's view of the total cease-fire was just a few hairs more optimistic than that of Cal Thomas, and her dislike of the situation meant for later years this would seem one of the great might-have-beens of preventing one of the most dramatic terrorist incidents in US history.

In July of 2001, however, US diplomacy would score a major victory on two fronts: first, Arafat agreed to CIA agents adding another group to the joint planning and exercise in the event that Hamas and Islamic Jihad attempted to fill the vacuum of an Israeli withdrawal and launched a Palestinian Civil War. These ties were among the most closely-guarded secrets of a secretive Administration, and the other, and not-entirely-unrelated triumph of Bush's diplomacy was to receive Sharon's firm commitment to withdraw the settlements from the Gaza Strip, regardless of cost.

For the other states which stood to gain from peace between Israel and Palestine these steps forward in public, where the Israelis and Palestinians were negotiating in a process remarkedly and remarked upon as less marked by continual stalemates and attempts to evade than others, helped ensure that 2001 was seen as the "great first year of the 21st Century."

 

[Snake Featherston]

August 2001: The Great Dilemma:

For Yasser Arafat the month of August marked the greatest period of the dilemma he was facing. While beginning the process of securing greater arms legitimately from US and foreign sources and illegitimately through smuggling and in a few cases using Israeli agents as smugglers, he had to find some means of reducing Sheik Yassin and Abd Al-Aziz Awda down to size that would keep his new-found legitimacy stronger, while avoiding arousing the suspicions of either Israel or the United States that he was intending right after this to go and do what he intended to do all along: secure an unimpeachable, legal base to attack the Zionist Entity from.

The negotiations in Paris, including his first of what would be several agreed-upon face-to-face meetings of Arafat and Sharon, before both returned to their states/base areas, were thus far proceeding smoothly. He noticed with grave concern that in addition to establishing and now openly proclaiming a United Islamic Front that Hamas and Islamic Jihad were continuing movements to form a unified government of the two rival Islamic movements, a shadow-government in Gaza which was, it was becoming clear, receiving arms from at least one foreign power (in this sense he had a feeling it was Iran), and which was very clearly being targeted at himself. While giving the usual speeches in public and engaging in all his ordinary PR, Arafat was busy micro-managing and planning as per usual the consolidation of his Security Forces, Force 17, the Martyr's Brigades, and other elements into a proper army to strike at the growing danger in the Gaza Strip. He had had to his displeasure to use the National Security Forces to send volleys into crowds that were openly pro-Hamas and displeased at the darkening clouds of tension between the rival movements, even as on the surface the overall cease-fire was holding and becoming entrenched.

In the absence for now several months of the continual and insuperable violence that had been going on since 2000, with the exception of the murder of the mayor of Nablus, Arafat was in his own view in need of a means to crush Hamas and Islamic Jihad. But thus far those two movements were far too cautious and far too silent, avoiding anything Arafat might possibly be able to find as a pretext. He was, he realized, a terrorist in need of a cause. Even as he publicly looked contented and privately micromanaged, schemed, and fretted, a storm cloud was gathering unknown to all save the 19 who were to perpetrate what they hoped would be a dramatic and great act against the occupiers of the two Holy Cities......

 

[Henriksson]

You're keeping me at the edge of my seat here, Snake. Continue!

 

[Snake Featherston]

September 2001: The Divine Wind:

For Ariel Sharon and Yasser Arafat, the news of September 11th, 2001, broke like a thunderclap on a clear day. Biographers of both men would make note of the coincidence that both men heard of the incident at the same time, at the same day, and had the same reaction "Oh, shit, what the Hell's going to happen now?". The Palestinian Authority issued a condemnation of the attacks and any celebrations of it were repressed with full savagery by the Palestinian Security Force, the redubbed and consolidating conglomeration of more moderate/secular forces, as well as the remnants of the old communist movements, where in the Gaza Strip Sheik Yassin and Abd Al-Aziz Awda led and encouraged celebrations of the attack.

For Arafat, however, the declaration of a Global War on Terrorism was the opportunity he had been seeking. In response to Bush's statement on the 16th that there would be a war on Terrorism, Arafat issued a statement that "the Palestinian Authority joins with full enthusiasm this crusade against that most pitiless and most merciless of enemies of international peace and stability, terrorism." Using Sheik Yassin and Abd Al-Aziz Awda's explicit identification with and approval of Al-Qaeda, Arafat claimed that he was perfectly willing to be one of the great regional proxies for the United States in its war, and that he would start his actions by the destruction of the now overtly hostile to the USA, Israel, and the Palestinian Authority Islamic Popular Front.

While not intending in the least to join the overall war, this would give Arafat the pretext he was seeking and even, if he managed to play his cards right, full international backing to build up an army far more formidable than what he had. This incident was a perfect chance for him and for the movement, what he had been so desperately in hope of in August. For the Bush Administration, this was a spectacular political coup right at the start of the War on Terrorism, one of the most notorious and brutal terrorists in the Middle East, a man who had pursued with great skill a lasting cease-fire with the Israelis, now offering to stand as a triumphant example of Bush's war for freedom and democracy, and offering as well removal of a movement whose use of suicide bombing and whose religious-theocratic orientation to terrorism made it extremely difficult for outsiders to sympathize with.

For his part Ariel Sharon was delighted to have such an incident happen that would both ensure Arafat's attention was focused on his rival Palestinians and which would even if it worked well bleed both Fatah and Hamas and leave Israel ultimately a true winner in either sense. For Sheik Yassin the month of September marked the moment of decision, a war with Fatah for the sake of Palestine as a truly Islamic entity, not some nebulous godless conglomeration attempting to be all things to all men that wound up being nothing to every man.

_____________________

This ends Part I of the ATL. Thoughts? Comments? Constructive criticism?

 

[Archibald]

Brilliant. I like the way 9/11 piggybacked into this. I hope sh*t won't hit the fan in 2002 - that peace will survive.

I also try to imagine Sharon and Arafat faces when they'll realize - with horror - their dark plans have snowballed into what they actually feared the most - "peace in our time", peace in the Middle-East !
That is, if a) sh*t doesn't hit the fan first and b) if they both survive past the year 2002...

 

[whatisinaname]

Subscribed, hope this continues.