Yasser Arafat's Great Gamble:
- Thread starter Snake Featherston
- Start date
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Snake Featherston
Banned
Phone calls between Yasser Arafat and both Al-Awda and Sheik Yassin:
Arafat: "The necessity of adhering to the appearance of peace means we must have the pretense of arresting those who act in what we shall term a fashion detrimenal to the accord. We shall put a few of my men, Force 17 Agents, in the garb of Hamas fighters and we shall arrest also a few men of your movement and of the Islamic Jihad movement. They shall be imprisoned until the renewal of the war. The more we can lull the Zionists, the harder they shall fall when we kick the rotten structure."
Yassin: "As Allah wills, Abu Amar. Tell me, should they be captured with M-16s or Kalashkinovs?"
Arafat: "I believe the Kalakshinovs will be the smarter and simpler move, as this is more in line with what Washington will expect. We want the Zionist entity's Puppet masters in particular not to suspect what it is that we do until we are ready to go forth and to do it. We need to have them captured with weapons allowed only under the Accords, this also to secure that Washington does not suspect more than it must be allowed to know."
________________
Al-Awda: "Should our men fake any attacks or resistance?"
Arafat: "No, we should not overdo this. To try too hard here will awaken Sharon and that is entirely what is not needed. Sharon is dangerous, he will suspect us of planning what it is that we are doing. He has made no overt signs to ready his armies, which indicates we lull him into silence. Tomorrow, the end of this first weak of the truce, we shall organize this."
Al-Awda: "So then it will be six of my mine, three of yours dressed in the garb of my fighters?"
Arafat: "Yes. Be certain there is no resistance."
Al-Awda: "It shall be done."
Arafat: "The necessity of adhering to the appearance of peace means we must have the pretense of arresting those who act in what we shall term a fashion detrimenal to the accord. We shall put a few of my men, Force 17 Agents, in the garb of Hamas fighters and we shall arrest also a few men of your movement and of the Islamic Jihad movement. They shall be imprisoned until the renewal of the war. The more we can lull the Zionists, the harder they shall fall when we kick the rotten structure."
Yassin: "As Allah wills, Abu Amar. Tell me, should they be captured with M-16s or Kalashkinovs?"
Arafat: "I believe the Kalakshinovs will be the smarter and simpler move, as this is more in line with what Washington will expect. We want the Zionist entity's Puppet masters in particular not to suspect what it is that we do until we are ready to go forth and to do it. We need to have them captured with weapons allowed only under the Accords, this also to secure that Washington does not suspect more than it must be allowed to know."
________________
Al-Awda: "Should our men fake any attacks or resistance?"
Arafat: "No, we should not overdo this. To try too hard here will awaken Sharon and that is entirely what is not needed. Sharon is dangerous, he will suspect us of planning what it is that we are doing. He has made no overt signs to ready his armies, which indicates we lull him into silence. Tomorrow, the end of this first weak of the truce, we shall organize this."
Al-Awda: "So then it will be six of my mine, three of yours dressed in the garb of my fighters?"
Arafat: "Yes. Be certain there is no resistance."
Al-Awda: "It shall be done."
Snake Featherston
Banned
The end of the first week of the cease-fire:
With the cease-fire reaching its seventh day, Palestinian civilians were moving out to start clearing away rubble, something engaged in also by the Palestinian Security Forces. While mobilized to their fullest extent, the Palestinian Security Forces in several cases were to wind up working together with IDF forces to remove rubble from various places, something not expected by Arafat but encouraged from Ramallah as a means to further lull the enemy's suspicions. Sharon, for his part, began to sense that something was very wrong with this kind of "peace", particularly when Egyptian intelligence alerted Mossad of attempts to smuggle in high-quality weaponry into the Gaza Strip, attempts that had misfired when the smugglers, in a high-stress situation opened a firefight with Egyptian officials, one sharply covered up.
The IDF and Sharon, however, simply ensured that the very secrecy of their orders were to be carried out to the fullest, and the planning of Operation Defensive Shield was streamlined and targeted to the most vulnerable points in terms of where a stronger, more well-armed Palestinian force might strike. Too, Israeli officials quietly and efficiently would begin starting in the second week evacuating Israeli civilians near the potential combat zone and building up equally quietly and efficiently a concrete cake for the Palestinian militants who were also beginning their own build-ups.
The start of meetings, selected this time to meet in Paris, was selected for the third week. While gone, Arafat selected Abu Mazen to retain leadership of what he termed civil functions (i.e. speechmaking and a political pretense), and Moussa Arafat to retain control of planning according to designs Arafat specified by timetable and by precisely-laid organized frameworks.
For the world at large, which did not notice the gradual build-ups on both sides and which had no knowledge of the bitter and deep rivalries on both sides as each prepared a renewal of war with the other, the seventh day of peace and a total and complete peace at that led to a mixture of tension, cynicism, and high hopes that this time Yasser Arafat had perhaps really and truly changed his stripes.
With the cease-fire reaching its seventh day, Palestinian civilians were moving out to start clearing away rubble, something engaged in also by the Palestinian Security Forces. While mobilized to their fullest extent, the Palestinian Security Forces in several cases were to wind up working together with IDF forces to remove rubble from various places, something not expected by Arafat but encouraged from Ramallah as a means to further lull the enemy's suspicions. Sharon, for his part, began to sense that something was very wrong with this kind of "peace", particularly when Egyptian intelligence alerted Mossad of attempts to smuggle in high-quality weaponry into the Gaza Strip, attempts that had misfired when the smugglers, in a high-stress situation opened a firefight with Egyptian officials, one sharply covered up.
The IDF and Sharon, however, simply ensured that the very secrecy of their orders were to be carried out to the fullest, and the planning of Operation Defensive Shield was streamlined and targeted to the most vulnerable points in terms of where a stronger, more well-armed Palestinian force might strike. Too, Israeli officials quietly and efficiently would begin starting in the second week evacuating Israeli civilians near the potential combat zone and building up equally quietly and efficiently a concrete cake for the Palestinian militants who were also beginning their own build-ups.
The start of meetings, selected this time to meet in Paris, was selected for the third week. While gone, Arafat selected Abu Mazen to retain leadership of what he termed civil functions (i.e. speechmaking and a political pretense), and Moussa Arafat to retain control of planning according to designs Arafat specified by timetable and by precisely-laid organized frameworks.
For the world at large, which did not notice the gradual build-ups on both sides and which had no knowledge of the bitter and deep rivalries on both sides as each prepared a renewal of war with the other, the seventh day of peace and a total and complete peace at that led to a mixture of tension, cynicism, and high hopes that this time Yasser Arafat had perhaps really and truly changed his stripes.
Snake Featherston
Banned
The Great Sweep:
The Great Sweep, on that seventh day, served its purposes in the Western world in confirming that the Palestinian Authority really did intend to meet this new plan and this new accord. It also, however, strengthened the conviction of Sharon that Arafat was merely planning this as a diversion, and this meant that he tightened further security restrictions as Operation Defensive Shield was prepared. He issued a draconian set of Rules of Engagements for what would be Defensive Shield that no Israeli would fire on Palestinians without being fired upon first. His intention here was fostered by a well-grounded suspicion that Arafat would resort to his usual tricks if his plans started to splinter.
Thus when a number of terrorists who were accused of planning to break the accord and captured with weapons, some of which had been prohibited under the Oslo Accords, and this added to the charges upon which they were arrested, were swept up in one of Arafat's most successful and most surgical sweeps, the wider world and even some Israelis hailed it as a major step forward and a sign that the current cease-fire was genuine. Mossad, which pierced the intended veil of secrecy, however, noted that many of the supposed "Hamas" and "Islamic Jihad" fighters were actually Force 17 agents, and that the arrests were a little *too* smooth and *too* well-organized.
As a result Mossad gained further influence in planning Defensive Shield, while Moussa Arafat was to find himself increasingly convinced by arguments of some of the bolder and more militant leaders, a small group in Fatah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad all convinced that the Intifada's success was a means for a full-fledged conventional war to achieve still more.......
The Great Sweep, on that seventh day, served its purposes in the Western world in confirming that the Palestinian Authority really did intend to meet this new plan and this new accord. It also, however, strengthened the conviction of Sharon that Arafat was merely planning this as a diversion, and this meant that he tightened further security restrictions as Operation Defensive Shield was prepared. He issued a draconian set of Rules of Engagements for what would be Defensive Shield that no Israeli would fire on Palestinians without being fired upon first. His intention here was fostered by a well-grounded suspicion that Arafat would resort to his usual tricks if his plans started to splinter.
Thus when a number of terrorists who were accused of planning to break the accord and captured with weapons, some of which had been prohibited under the Oslo Accords, and this added to the charges upon which they were arrested, were swept up in one of Arafat's most successful and most surgical sweeps, the wider world and even some Israelis hailed it as a major step forward and a sign that the current cease-fire was genuine. Mossad, which pierced the intended veil of secrecy, however, noted that many of the supposed "Hamas" and "Islamic Jihad" fighters were actually Force 17 agents, and that the arrests were a little *too* smooth and *too* well-organized.
As a result Mossad gained further influence in planning Defensive Shield, while Moussa Arafat was to find himself increasingly convinced by arguments of some of the bolder and more militant leaders, a small group in Fatah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad all convinced that the Intifada's success was a means for a full-fledged conventional war to achieve still more.......
Sean Mulligan
Banned
This seems very biased against Arafat and the Palestinians. How is Arafat seeking peace with Israel changing his stripes? Arafat had signed the Oslo peace agreement 8 years earlier and had recognized Israel's right to exist as early as 1988.
What agreements has Arafat broken? Hadn't Arafat been a U.S. ally since 1993?
What agreements has Arafat broken? Hadn't Arafat been a U.S. ally since 1993?
Sean, this would be the Arafat who routinely ignored the Oslo Accord and who went to Camp David in 2000 refusing to even make a peace proposal of his own.
Lycaon pictus
Donor
I already love this TL. It's like waiting for the other shoe to drop… if the shoe were soaked in nitroglycerin.
Snake Featherston
Banned
It's reflecting the reality of who Yasser Arafat was. There were other Palestinians who were able to seriously negotiate something like peace in the Fatah leadership. Arafat never was one of them. He continually broke agreements with all his neighboring Arab states (when they invariably asked him not to make their territory into his own mini-states), he was directly involved in smuggling weapons well outside the terms of the Oslo Accords....Arafat was a bad man and IMHO he's one of those "if he had only died in 1988" types, then much of his evils would be more excusable. When he started being the same ol' dick in the wake of the accords he made it transparent he was the same man in the 21st Century that he had been in the 1970s.
Snake Featherston
Banned
The first two days of Week II of the Cease-Fire:
With Abu Mazzin and Shimon Peres beginning the preliminaries for the new attempts at the Paris Accords, Arafat began further attempts to create a climate of superficial peace and good will. He organized carefully-orchestrated Fatah rallies where his followers carried doves and olive branches and chanted "A fair and a just peace!" as he gave a three-hour harangue which for a speech on peace consisted of another harsh indictment of the Israeli Defense Force and its leaders in general and one Ariel Sharon in particular. Arafat, however, concluded his speech with "No more Beiruts, no more Black Septembers! We shall have a free and independent Palestine, a state of our own. All we have ever asked is that what is justly ours should be ours.
I have never had quarrels with Jews, and I insist that in the wake of this peace that we and the Jews shall have a mutual agreement of peace, amity, and goodwill. We are brothers of the Jews, they are children of Isaac as we are of Ishmael. It is certain that brothers fight, but it is also certain that a family of brothers should be able amicably to co-exist."
Arafat basked in the cheers of his carefully-orchestrated rally, and then once again called up Al-Awda.
"Has the shipment arrived yet?"
"Yes, Brother Abu Amar, the first weapons are arriving. They are less than we expected, however, and it appears that Cairo was less faithful to us than it should have been."
Arafat cursed like a mule-skinner for a few minutes before finally calming down enough to reply: "Well that's how it's always been with those states. Have we means to ensure this will not happen again?"
Al-Awda breathed heavily right into the phone for almost a minute, then laughed and said "Of course we do, Brother Abu Amar. Of course we do."
With Abu Mazzin and Shimon Peres beginning the preliminaries for the new attempts at the Paris Accords, Arafat began further attempts to create a climate of superficial peace and good will. He organized carefully-orchestrated Fatah rallies where his followers carried doves and olive branches and chanted "A fair and a just peace!" as he gave a three-hour harangue which for a speech on peace consisted of another harsh indictment of the Israeli Defense Force and its leaders in general and one Ariel Sharon in particular. Arafat, however, concluded his speech with "No more Beiruts, no more Black Septembers! We shall have a free and independent Palestine, a state of our own. All we have ever asked is that what is justly ours should be ours.
I have never had quarrels with Jews, and I insist that in the wake of this peace that we and the Jews shall have a mutual agreement of peace, amity, and goodwill. We are brothers of the Jews, they are children of Isaac as we are of Ishmael. It is certain that brothers fight, but it is also certain that a family of brothers should be able amicably to co-exist."
Arafat basked in the cheers of his carefully-orchestrated rally, and then once again called up Al-Awda.
"Has the shipment arrived yet?"
"Yes, Brother Abu Amar, the first weapons are arriving. They are less than we expected, however, and it appears that Cairo was less faithful to us than it should have been."
Arafat cursed like a mule-skinner for a few minutes before finally calming down enough to reply: "Well that's how it's always been with those states. Have we means to ensure this will not happen again?"
Al-Awda breathed heavily right into the phone for almost a minute, then laughed and said "Of course we do, Brother Abu Amar. Of course we do."
Snake Featherston
Banned
The Port of Nuwabi:
The Egyptian soldiers toting Misrs were on the alert. In the wake of the last Palestinian attempt to run guns through this port the Egyptian government had ordered the dispatching of more soldiers here, the better to forestall yet another example of "treachery by that son of a dog Arafat. I shall not be drawn into yet another war by what he's doing on my soil. I am not Nasser, nor am I Sadat."
The soldiers, equipped primarily with small arms so as to avoid arousing the suspicions immediately of the smugglers, known to be agents of Islamic Jihad and Force 17, were soon to get into position when another ship, also one known to be carrying higher-quality arms than the Palestinians were allowed to have, and also attempting to use the Sinai as their end-run appeared. As the ship came into docking range bursts of automatic fire came from it, evidently the Palestinian smugglers on it were expecting that there would be resistance this time. The fire was aimed high and only one Egyptian soldier was wounded in this initial burst, and as Egyptian troops returned fire, another boat, this one crewed by Egyptian regulars came up to the Palestinian ship.
"This ship shall be boarded and inspected for contraband shipments, or we shall shoot. First, last, and only warning."
The Palestinian smugglers on the ship then turned their fire on the boat, which prepared one of the mortars on it, an M224, which struck the smugglers' boat and produced both fire and smoke. The smugglers signaled that they would be boarded and requested permission to land their ship, this permission was denied them by the Egyptians, who instead boarded the ship, and arrested all but two of the smugglers, those two attempting to directly fight and winding up shot for their troubles.
Once again Egyptian intelligence notified Mossad, and indicated that Egypt did not want to be drawn into the latest issues with Arafat and Israel, and used these two incidents, covered up on the mutual agreement of both intelligence agencies, as a means for the Mossad to begin tracking where and how these shipments arrived as a means to interdict them.
As with the first interception no public comment was made from Ramallah, and no acknowledgment of these shipments was ever admitted during this time from any of the Palestinian leadership. In Jerusalem the knowledge of this second shipment meant that the Israelis prepared a still-stronger total set of forces for Defensive Shield, while Mossad began to pick up indications that at least some Palestinian forces were starting training as conventional forces for set-piece battles.
The Egyptian soldiers toting Misrs were on the alert. In the wake of the last Palestinian attempt to run guns through this port the Egyptian government had ordered the dispatching of more soldiers here, the better to forestall yet another example of "treachery by that son of a dog Arafat. I shall not be drawn into yet another war by what he's doing on my soil. I am not Nasser, nor am I Sadat."
The soldiers, equipped primarily with small arms so as to avoid arousing the suspicions immediately of the smugglers, known to be agents of Islamic Jihad and Force 17, were soon to get into position when another ship, also one known to be carrying higher-quality arms than the Palestinians were allowed to have, and also attempting to use the Sinai as their end-run appeared. As the ship came into docking range bursts of automatic fire came from it, evidently the Palestinian smugglers on it were expecting that there would be resistance this time. The fire was aimed high and only one Egyptian soldier was wounded in this initial burst, and as Egyptian troops returned fire, another boat, this one crewed by Egyptian regulars came up to the Palestinian ship.
"This ship shall be boarded and inspected for contraband shipments, or we shall shoot. First, last, and only warning."
The Palestinian smugglers on the ship then turned their fire on the boat, which prepared one of the mortars on it, an M224, which struck the smugglers' boat and produced both fire and smoke. The smugglers signaled that they would be boarded and requested permission to land their ship, this permission was denied them by the Egyptians, who instead boarded the ship, and arrested all but two of the smugglers, those two attempting to directly fight and winding up shot for their troubles.
Once again Egyptian intelligence notified Mossad, and indicated that Egypt did not want to be drawn into the latest issues with Arafat and Israel, and used these two incidents, covered up on the mutual agreement of both intelligence agencies, as a means for the Mossad to begin tracking where and how these shipments arrived as a means to interdict them.
As with the first interception no public comment was made from Ramallah, and no acknowledgment of these shipments was ever admitted during this time from any of the Palestinian leadership. In Jerusalem the knowledge of this second shipment meant that the Israelis prepared a still-stronger total set of forces for Defensive Shield, while Mossad began to pick up indications that at least some Palestinian forces were starting training as conventional forces for set-piece battles.
Archibald
Banned
This is delightful to read - I like it very much. Plotting idiots against each other to make peace; mutual paranoia cancelling each other into peace.
Reminds me of the Reykjavik summit of 1986. Unbestknown to each other, both Gorbachev and Reagan had been briefed by their respective hawks. The hawks had had the same idea - that their"weak" president should present the ennemy bold proposals over nuclear disarmement.
Of course the bold proposal would take the ennemy aback, and he would refuse, and the world would not perdon him.
So Reagan did his bold proposal to Gorbachev
"Let's withdrawn all nuclear ballistic missiles..."
Meanwhile Gorbachev made his bold proposal to Reagan
"Let's withdraw all nuclear weapons"
What the hawks had not predicted was that the two would take their "advices" seriously...
..the world was a hair from global nuclear disarmement !
Reminds me of the Reykjavik summit of 1986. Unbestknown to each other, both Gorbachev and Reagan had been briefed by their respective hawks. The hawks had had the same idea - that their"weak" president should present the ennemy bold proposals over nuclear disarmement.
Of course the bold proposal would take the ennemy aback, and he would refuse, and the world would not perdon him.
So Reagan did his bold proposal to Gorbachev
"Let's withdrawn all nuclear ballistic missiles..."
Meanwhile Gorbachev made his bold proposal to Reagan
"Let's withdraw all nuclear weapons"
What the hawks had not predicted was that the two would take their "advices" seriously...
..the world was a hair from global nuclear disarmement !
Snake Featherston
Banned
Ramallah:
A phone call between Sheik Yassin and Yasser Arafat:
Yassin: "Brother Abu Amar, another of our shipments has been interrupted by the Cairo Regime."
Arafat: "What? How dare those dogs betray our quest for national liberation? Have they no shame (goes on for fifteen minutes like this)?".
Yassin: "It is my belief that Mubarak is trying to stay in the good graces of the United States and Israel. If we have means of air-dropping such shipments this might prove a preferable means, or alternately putting them on double-layered ships, the first layer containing only things like food, medicine, and other humanitarian goods."
Arafat: "I shall see what I can do. What's this about Al-Awda and some of your men preparing for pitched-battles? The Zionist Entity may be illegitimate but we have to fight where it is weakest, not where it is strongest."
Yassin: "Abu Amar, if our actions without armies have gained us this, what will actions with armies gain us?"
Arafat: "Expulsion. I insist strongly that we stick to attempting to wear down the Zionist regime where it is weakest, where its concern for life will harm it. We are not anywhere near strong enough to face it where it is strongest. I insist this, Brother Yassin, very strongly."
A phone call between Sheik Yassin and Yasser Arafat:
Yassin: "Brother Abu Amar, another of our shipments has been interrupted by the Cairo Regime."
Arafat: "What? How dare those dogs betray our quest for national liberation? Have they no shame (goes on for fifteen minutes like this)?".
Yassin: "It is my belief that Mubarak is trying to stay in the good graces of the United States and Israel. If we have means of air-dropping such shipments this might prove a preferable means, or alternately putting them on double-layered ships, the first layer containing only things like food, medicine, and other humanitarian goods."
Arafat: "I shall see what I can do. What's this about Al-Awda and some of your men preparing for pitched-battles? The Zionist Entity may be illegitimate but we have to fight where it is weakest, not where it is strongest."
Yassin: "Abu Amar, if our actions without armies have gained us this, what will actions with armies gain us?"
Arafat: "Expulsion. I insist strongly that we stick to attempting to wear down the Zionist regime where it is weakest, where its concern for life will harm it. We are not anywhere near strong enough to face it where it is strongest. I insist this, Brother Yassin, very strongly."
Snake Featherston
Banned
The Paris Talks, early phase:
A phone call between Sharon and Peres:
Peres: "Do you really expect that the Palestinians would accept this proposal if I offered it?"
Sharon: "No, and if they refuse to accept any true independence like this sort and resume attacks then we've got a perfect indication that Arafat is violent and cannot be trusted."
Peres: "Then we shall see."
___________________
Peres: "Mr. Abbas, my government has a proposal of our good faith that your leaders might be interested in."
Abbas: "Oh?"
Peres: "Prime Minister Sharon has authorized me to tell you he proposes a total withdrawal of all settlers from the Gaza Strip, with pending negotiations of how to fairly decide issues of control of air space and ports. The Gaza Strip, as my Prime Minister says, will serve as an indication to ourselves and to the world that this is a true and sincere peace offer."
Abbas: "........"
Abbas: "I must be excused for a minute, gentlemen, I wish to consult my own advisors."
_______________
Ramallah:
Arafat: "He said what?"
Abbas: "He promised disengagement from the Gaza Strip and removal of all settlers there, provided the current cease-fire is truly enduring."
Arafat: "I do not believe this, but if it is sincere then it offers us a very strong base indeed. Let's probe this request and see how sincere Mr. Sharon is. If that fat bastard should be so stupid as to give us a base directly south of him, I think we should not desist in his doing so. I will hold down Hamas and Islamic Jihad long enough that these negotiations can test this.
Perhaps, Abu Mazin, you have been right all along. But just perhaps. I do not know if Sharon is sincere or if he's offering a great bluff and expecting we shall not agree to it."
Abbas: "As you say, Abu Amar, there is no reason to make Sharon desist in giving us what is ours in any event as it is."
_________________
Paris:
Abbas: "My advisors and I are fully agreed. We shall consider this proposal."
__________________
Phone call to Office of the Israeli Prime Minister:
Sharon: "Either Arafat is really being serious in this regard or he's plotting something more competent than is is his usual norm. Let's use this as our litmus test. I will not be like Barak and this be my Hebron."
Peres: "Understood."
A phone call between Sharon and Peres:
Peres: "Do you really expect that the Palestinians would accept this proposal if I offered it?"
Sharon: "No, and if they refuse to accept any true independence like this sort and resume attacks then we've got a perfect indication that Arafat is violent and cannot be trusted."
Peres: "Then we shall see."
___________________
Peres: "Mr. Abbas, my government has a proposal of our good faith that your leaders might be interested in."
Abbas: "Oh?"
Peres: "Prime Minister Sharon has authorized me to tell you he proposes a total withdrawal of all settlers from the Gaza Strip, with pending negotiations of how to fairly decide issues of control of air space and ports. The Gaza Strip, as my Prime Minister says, will serve as an indication to ourselves and to the world that this is a true and sincere peace offer."
Abbas: "........"
Abbas: "I must be excused for a minute, gentlemen, I wish to consult my own advisors."
_______________
Ramallah:
Arafat: "He said what?"
Abbas: "He promised disengagement from the Gaza Strip and removal of all settlers there, provided the current cease-fire is truly enduring."
Arafat: "I do not believe this, but if it is sincere then it offers us a very strong base indeed. Let's probe this request and see how sincere Mr. Sharon is. If that fat bastard should be so stupid as to give us a base directly south of him, I think we should not desist in his doing so. I will hold down Hamas and Islamic Jihad long enough that these negotiations can test this.
Perhaps, Abu Mazin, you have been right all along. But just perhaps. I do not know if Sharon is sincere or if he's offering a great bluff and expecting we shall not agree to it."
Abbas: "As you say, Abu Amar, there is no reason to make Sharon desist in giving us what is ours in any event as it is."
_________________
Paris:
Abbas: "My advisors and I are fully agreed. We shall consider this proposal."
__________________
Phone call to Office of the Israeli Prime Minister:
Sharon: "Either Arafat is really being serious in this regard or he's plotting something more competent than is is his usual norm. Let's use this as our litmus test. I will not be like Barak and this be my Hebron."
Peres: "Understood."
Snake Featherston
Banned
The Paris Talks:
Abu Mazzen: "The withdrawal from the Gaza Strip is something that my people would consider a great step for peace."
Peres: "Yes, we would also. This, however, you must remember is but a proposal at this time. For it to work there must be agreements adhered to by both sides."
Abu Mazzen: "We shall do all that is possible to expedite this."
Peres: "For my own country's part we shall do all that is possible to expedite this new prospect of a true and lasting peace."
Abu Mazzen: "The Chairman of the Palestinian Authority wishes to meet personally with his counterpart, the Israeli Prime Minister to discuss these things."
Peres: "And so he shall. We, however, wish to have an agreed-upon set of principles as a starting point for this discussion."
___________________
A phone call to Ramallah:
Arafat: "Yes, by all means let us give the Zionist Entity what it wants, or rather let it think that we are doing this. We want, brother Abu Mazzen, a truce such that they do not expect any renewal of war. We want, however, at the same time if such a war should begin that these barbarians begin it and not we who are in the wrong."
Abbas: "Brother Abu Amar, am I right to understand you that we are for the time being negotiating solely for a withdrawal from the Gaza Strip?"
Arafat: "Quite so, Brother Abu Mazzen. We wish to put the Zionist Entity squarely on the spot. If asked for specifics they invariably always and forever and without question have betrayed these accords. So shall we impale them upon this."
Abbas: "As you wish. How do Yassin and Al-Awda do with this truce?"
Arafat: "They are starting to rebuild and remove rubble, just as in the West Bank. Yassin says if this truce is prolonged that Hamas will begin efforts to show that it, too, can be trusted to govern peacefully. He, however, will not leave Gaza voluntarily and this may pose a problem."
Abbas: "I have no doubt that if needs be you could handle it Brother Abu Amar."
Arafat: "As always."
Abu Mazzen: "The withdrawal from the Gaza Strip is something that my people would consider a great step for peace."
Peres: "Yes, we would also. This, however, you must remember is but a proposal at this time. For it to work there must be agreements adhered to by both sides."
Abu Mazzen: "We shall do all that is possible to expedite this."
Peres: "For my own country's part we shall do all that is possible to expedite this new prospect of a true and lasting peace."
Abu Mazzen: "The Chairman of the Palestinian Authority wishes to meet personally with his counterpart, the Israeli Prime Minister to discuss these things."
Peres: "And so he shall. We, however, wish to have an agreed-upon set of principles as a starting point for this discussion."
___________________
A phone call to Ramallah:
Arafat: "Yes, by all means let us give the Zionist Entity what it wants, or rather let it think that we are doing this. We want, brother Abu Mazzen, a truce such that they do not expect any renewal of war. We want, however, at the same time if such a war should begin that these barbarians begin it and not we who are in the wrong."
Abbas: "Brother Abu Amar, am I right to understand you that we are for the time being negotiating solely for a withdrawal from the Gaza Strip?"
Arafat: "Quite so, Brother Abu Mazzen. We wish to put the Zionist Entity squarely on the spot. If asked for specifics they invariably always and forever and without question have betrayed these accords. So shall we impale them upon this."
Abbas: "As you wish. How do Yassin and Al-Awda do with this truce?"
Arafat: "They are starting to rebuild and remove rubble, just as in the West Bank. Yassin says if this truce is prolonged that Hamas will begin efforts to show that it, too, can be trusted to govern peacefully. He, however, will not leave Gaza voluntarily and this may pose a problem."
Abbas: "I have no doubt that if needs be you could handle it Brother Abu Amar."
Arafat: "As always."
Snake Featherston
Banned
Ramallah:
Arafat: "Sheik Yassin, I am afraid that the weapons shipments appear to be smaller and fewer than we expected."
Yassin: "It is indeed so, Brother Abu Amar. What is your idea about how to handle this?".
Arafat: "For the time being, I wish that you should seek to show Hamas as peaceful. Until we get the shipments on the scale and to the degree we expected we are not, I repeat not, to challenge the Zionist Entity. For the time being I have ordered brother Abu Mazzen to secure for us an independent Gaza Strip. If we can secure for the first time a base of our own that has no Israeli settlers, and even some true, free access to our own ports, then we can resume the struggle even stronger than we would otherwise be. Remember, my dear Sheik, always our focus is the struggle. This is just a little bump in the road, and if things get too troubled I can sink Sharon as I sank his predecessors."
Yassin: "The victory will be ours as Allah wills."
Arafat: "Indeed. But for now, I again caution you that we are not to begin firing at the Zionist Entity until we are strong enough to do so with impunity. The Gaza Strip as a base is a perfect means to begin doing so."
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Office of the Israeli Prime Minister:
Sharon: "So Arafat has said he'll accept this deal, then? Good. Perhaps if we focus on just the Gaza Strip and pin him down to specifics we'll shake out whatever plan he has currently working up. If he wants the Gaza Strip as a base to attack us, he shall not have it. If, however, he really has been sincere all along in terms of changing his goal then it may well be that history will have some very strange things to say about all of this."
Arafat: "Sheik Yassin, I am afraid that the weapons shipments appear to be smaller and fewer than we expected."
Yassin: "It is indeed so, Brother Abu Amar. What is your idea about how to handle this?".
Arafat: "For the time being, I wish that you should seek to show Hamas as peaceful. Until we get the shipments on the scale and to the degree we expected we are not, I repeat not, to challenge the Zionist Entity. For the time being I have ordered brother Abu Mazzen to secure for us an independent Gaza Strip. If we can secure for the first time a base of our own that has no Israeli settlers, and even some true, free access to our own ports, then we can resume the struggle even stronger than we would otherwise be. Remember, my dear Sheik, always our focus is the struggle. This is just a little bump in the road, and if things get too troubled I can sink Sharon as I sank his predecessors."
Yassin: "The victory will be ours as Allah wills."
Arafat: "Indeed. But for now, I again caution you that we are not to begin firing at the Zionist Entity until we are strong enough to do so with impunity. The Gaza Strip as a base is a perfect means to begin doing so."
___________________
Office of the Israeli Prime Minister:
Sharon: "So Arafat has said he'll accept this deal, then? Good. Perhaps if we focus on just the Gaza Strip and pin him down to specifics we'll shake out whatever plan he has currently working up. If he wants the Gaza Strip as a base to attack us, he shall not have it. If, however, he really has been sincere all along in terms of changing his goal then it may well be that history will have some very strange things to say about all of this."
Snake Featherston
Banned
All of this doesn't sounds as plausible to me. Niether side was ready for a serious concessions in spring of 2001 ( mainly status of Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in Jordan Valley ) so I don't see any other development than OTL or even worse.
Well, Arafat's *trying* to engineer Sharon's going into a full-fledged attack and giving Arafat a great moral and political victory without actually conceding anything. Sharon's really not believing any of it and is trying repeatedly to trip up Arafat by getting him to once again do what he usually does and betray the agreement. Murphy's Law affects both sides, of course, and Arafat's focus on Sharon doing what Arafat would have done, of course, also neglects that Sharon is not Arafat.
The Gaza Strip becomes in this case a litmus test by both sides to see if this is really a sincere deal or just another attempt to get a cease fire in order for both sides to strengthen each other. Arafat's not intending to concede a thing, but he's trying to play for time, Sharon's just playing for time and trying to keep the fighting from renewing itself as long as possible so Israel can swing its fist loaded with brass knuckles and a rock and fully end Arafat's Intifada.
Sharon has no need to start shooting first, but Arafat naturally doesn't think this way and keeps trying to get Sharon to do what he neither needs to do nor has any particular rationale to do.
TL;DR: They're not exactly ready for them here either, they're trying to bluff each other into shooting first to restart major fighting.
abc123
Banned
Yes, but the trouble is that Sharon ( is he still alive anymore? ) doesn't gives a shit for international opinion and doesn't need some special reason to attack them.
Also, influence of Arafat/Fatah on other Palestinian groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad is pretty overstated here IMO.
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Yes, but the trouble is that Sharon ( is he still alive anymore? ) doesn't gives a shit for international opinion and doesn't need some special reason to attack them.
Also, influence of Arafat/Fatah on other Palestinian groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad is pretty overstated here IMO.
Point 2 is true, but Point 1 is not. Sharon didn't really give a shit about international opinion, but he knows he can't humiliate the United States by launching an unprovoked assault on the Palestinians. He can swing as hard as he wants as soon as the truce is broken, but he can't hit first. That would make Bush look like a sucker, and would give the Palestinians a huge moral victory. I would expect the BDS movement to get a massive boost from a move like that, even in the USA.
Snake Featherston
Banned
Yes, but the trouble is that Sharon ( is he still alive anymore? ) doesn't gives a shit for international opinion and doesn't need some special reason to attack them.
Also, influence of Arafat/Fatah on other Palestinian groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad is pretty overstated here IMO.
Sharon doesn't really give a damn about it here, he's just working to exploit the truce as much as Arafat is and with much better and neater-organized actions. Arafat had the ability to rein in Hamas and Islamic Jihad when he needed to do so in his lifetime as he was the only Palestinian who could do it. Arafat is *the* symbol of the Palestinian people and his enforcing his authority in this regard only serves to deepen Sharon's overall suspicions of him. However Arafat's trying to ensure Sharon shoots first, which Sharon neither needs to do nor has any real desire to do......
Precisely. Sharon's a bad man, to be sure, but he's not stupid. He has no reason to shoot first and he knows that giving the Palestinians a *real* moral victory instead of the blatant lies variety is a bad idea. This temporary truce suits his needs as much as it does Arafat's, but as Arafat's trying to get Sharon to do something he doesn't need to do and is unwilling to risk having his own men shoot first in this specific occasion......
Sharon's reluctance here is not necessarily the USA so much as an unprovoked attack on the Palestinians would be a mistake as much in terms of domestic Israeli politics as elsewhere, as it would provide more fuel for the "Ariel Sharon is a warmongering thug" crowd in Israeli politics. *He* thinks Arafat's going to shoot first *again* and so he just has to wait long enough and it'll happen anyway. While the unilateral disengagement and removal of settlers from the Gaza Strip he did IOTL is his idea of a negotiation to ensure Arafat either attacks when offered a deal that is actually better than Oslo or alternately to secure advantages in a real peace, either way it's a political victory for Sharon.
And as far as his influence here Hamas and Islamic Jihad *aren't* entirely following through with what Arafat wants (given they're getting too bold and trying to form conventional military forces for a conventional war) and it's Arafat's credentials as Mr. Palestine, in that sense, that lets him rein in as much as he does (that and Hamas and Islamic Jihad intend to take over the Gaza Strip the moment Israel withdraws and present Arafat with a fait accompli).
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