WWIII starts in the East...or will it?

[Count Valerian]

Oh, so you as a Japanese national do want to militarise and somehow expect China to not respond to that?

(laughs)

The only reason Japan has been able to rearm to the point we could field pseudo-light carriers, is because of 'Chinese bullying' and as my FILIPINO relatives put it over the past decade. And that doesn't even factor in North Korean nuclear fantasies.

There is nothing more that needs be said on this matter. If the Chinese insist on their current course of action, then Japan can and MUST proactively prepare to use its sovereign right to self-defense.

 

[mlp]

(laughs)

The only reason Japan has been able to rearm to the point we could field pseudo-light carriers, is because of 'Chinese bullying' and as my FILIPINO relatives put it over the past decade. And that doesn't even factor in North Korean nuclear fantasies.

There is nothing more that needs be said on this matter. If the Chinese insist on their current course of action, then Japan can and MUST proactively prepare to use its sovereign right to self-defense.

Well that sure as hell isn't the fault of China, sounds more like the anti-Chinese media coming into play. For your information China's defence budget in relation to total budget has been dramatically decreased since the 80s:

It seems you continue to believe somehow China has an interest in military occupying the Japanese mainland. If you wish to subscribe to that conspiracy theory so be it. We'll see what happens, whether it was Japanese militarism or Chinese expansionism that causes the future conflict in East Asia.
Because Abe seems hellbent on getting Japan "resplendent" in "military glory".

 

[dehantp]

Second assumption of this WI: North Korea, despite its crippled economy and further crippled military, obviously believes it is still possible to invade and occupy the south.

Maybe not that ... but they may believe playing with fire can distract from internal problems. Would not be the first time that an ailing regime thinks the best way to distract people from problems at home is to send them off fighting an 'enemy' abroad - including one vastly more powerful. Or at least pretend to do so.

China doing the same though right now seems a lot less likely however. China is just doing too well for the moment. Sure: The government plays the nationalist card regularly these days (well actually since it lost communism as its source of -cough- 'legitimacy' decades ago, but it stepped up the nationalist pace since the last change of government). But the Chinese government is just not enough in a desperate 'with its back to the wall' situation domestically these days so that it has to go out in a nationalist 'Quick! Start a war somewhere! Anything just to keep the populace busy!'

I think a timeline where the Chinese government does see its survival in starting a war has to be one where it faces massive discontent at home. So massive that it can not be swept under the rug anymore with the usual means of censorship, propaganda and police tactics of an authoritarian regime. Something where a palable risk of revolt is around again. A situation close to a second Tiananmen Square Protests level so to say. But that is not what is going on in China these days. I am living here, so I allow myself to back this up with nothing more than "I am just not seeing it".

Now: If the Chinese economic miracle would somehow fail though ...

Then things could look a LOT different. Prosperity and nationalism is all the government is able to offer these days. And they are clever enough to bet more on prosperity than nationalism now. But woe me if prosperity drops. Like: Considerably. And only nationalism remains as an offer from the government to its people here.

I may not make it out alive of such a TL.

 

[oreocruncher]

So we're simply supposed to let those g*dd**n revanchists push us around? And the insane North Koreans...? To hell with them!

The Chinese only respect strength...Japan is strong. We will NOT be pushed around by revanchists, least of all Communists.

Revanchism? You do know that everybody disputes over these islands right?
I mean, sure China is the biggest and most aggressive player, but that doesn't mean they're the only one fighting over them...
Even Vietnam is doing the land reclamation too!

I understand your concerns, and I do welcome your opposition to revisionist sentiment, but we don't really hear about that...
We see politicians on TV saying "We didn't do anything wrong during WWII!", and then we look at German politicians acknowledging stuff, and then we're like "If the Japanese truly don't buy into revisionism, why is it that their politicians say this crap? What purpose is there to vote for them? I mean, such politicians don't get into high positions of power in Germany..."
Under these circumstances, you could see why the idea of Japanese remilitarization would be feared by the Chinese and Koreans...
And having Koreans fearing that isn't really in your best interests, nor that of the US for that matter...

 

[adamu_kun]

South Korea needs China because getting closer to them is the only way to reunification. The US has no leverage over North Korea, China does.

Partially, yes. The other reason is economic necessity, the South Korean economy is very close to China, not just for trade, and also, as I said, if China offers to 'help out' rebuilding the north, the economic ties get even closer.

Why on earth would the "tribute system" be a reason.

Not a reason as such, however Korea was a tributary state of China until the end of the Joseon period. I'm not suggesting that there would be a 21st Century return to this, there wouldn't, but for historical reasons, I really think that the Korean people would be more comfortable with a close relationship with China than the US and certainly Japan. The Ming came to Korea's aid in the Imjin War and the PRC intervened on behalf of the North in the Korean War. Having Chinese help rebuild the north could go a long way in winning over the support of the newly united-Korean population there, as would close ties with China.

Well there's already a lobby in the States who want America to dramatically reduce the size of their military bases in Japan, if not remove them altogether - they figure it costs too much for too little return. So they'd be all in favour of more rearmament - bigger Japanese military means less need for American bases...

The Americans are already solidly in favour of Japanese rearmament. There is a large push to get Abe to increase Japanese military spending and take over a lot of what the US forces do in the region. Essentially, you could argue that it's a move by the US to get Japan to act as its proxy in the region, so there can be wars, but with minimal risk to the US / US forces.

...in this scenario I doubt those lobbyists will get any support if the US is forced to withdraw from Korea...but knowledge of the existence of those people plus the American withdrawal from Korea just adds further support for the right.

Why? The only reason the US states for its presence in the Korean peninsula is to support South Korea and help protect against the North. With the North removed, I'm pretty sure that South Korea will be very quick to politely thank the US for its help, then politely ask it to remove its bases.

Also, the major reason for US forces remaining in Japan is to protect Japan against existential threats. During the Cold War, this was the USSR and China, now it's North Korea and China. With the North Korean threat removed and an expanding military, Japan can quite effectively fight against China. The US does not want to get involved in a shooting war with China, but it seems that Abe and other warhawks in Nagatacho want to, so the US should sit back and let them (once Japan's military is strong enough). I can't see the US getting dragged into a war that Japan starts - agreements with Japan are to protect Japan against aggression, not actively assist Japan's own aggression.

This would be true, but I haven't heard of it. Maybe a source?

Like I wrote above, the US as actually been very supportive of Japanese rearmament. Here are a couple of articles:

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said in a statement Tuesday that he welcomes Japan’s new defense policy. It will enable their military to engage in a wider range of operations, making the U.S.-Japanese alliance more effective, he said.

- https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2014/07/01/japan-flexes-its-muscles-shifts-its-defense-policy-with-pentagon-support/

Here's an article from the Chosun Ilbo that references an article from the New York Times that suggests America is supporting rearmament:http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2013/10/07/2013100700985.html

Although the US is still saying it is committed to defending Japan, it does give Washington an option to restrain any defence, as well as allowing Japan the ability to ultimately develop a military to take on China whilst the US sits back and munches on popcorn whilst watching Japan do it instead of the US.

And back to Taiwan - no matter what alliances the US may have in other areas in the world, refusing to take on China in any invasion would not be a case of the US sending the wrong message to other allies. The US has no strategic reason, natural resource or other reason to protect Taiwan as long as it / Japan maintains control of Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands. And like I wrote, if China is sitting in the former North Korea when it takes on Taiwan and the US risks unnecessarily losing 29,000 troops and potentially its relationship with Korea, there is no interest for the US to do so. Why risk having to take on China in Korea as well, with a limited force, instead of limiting the conflict to Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait? In such a situation, the US risks losing a lot more (and having the war escalate more rapidly) and I really think it makes no sense for them to get involved if that is the situation.

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

Regarding North Korea: as I see it, while only the Dear Leader may actually realistically think that his crippled nation can overrun the South, if North Korea's back was entirely to the wall, if they were staring collapse in the face and the rest of the world was going to let them fall...then their military leaders, knowing that there was no way for them to hold onto power, might decide 'Well, if we're going out, let's do what we can to cripple the Southern imperialists and Japan too'. Like a preemptive version of the Samson Option.