Wider Iranian Hostage Crisis

Panzerfaust 150

Banned
I dug this out from the old usenet boards a while ago, something I posted, was wondering what people here thought?

Late 1979: The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan sends the mullahs in Iran into a frenzy, especially Khomeini, who launches a series of tirades equating the two Superpowers as nothing more than the "right and left hands of Satan". Iranian backed agitatiors beging to stir up trouble in the Soviet Central Asian Republics, Revolutionary Guardsmen volunteer for martyrdom in Afghanistan. An Aeroflot flight from Helsinki to Leningrad is hijacked by a faction of Hizbullah. Brezhnev and Ustinov begin to really get ulcers and the lights burn long in the Defense Minstry.

January 7th, 1980: Iranian militants overrun the Soviet embassy in Tehran in the same way they overran the US embassy some months before. However, the Soviets go down fighting and many Soviet and East Bloc nationals don't survive the embassy's fall as the crowd is enraged by the 100+ casualties taken from the fight put up by the embassy guards and KGB staff.

Jan-Feb 1980: Two Soviet Armies, the 7th Guards Army and the 5th Guards Tank Army begin to mass along the Iranian border. The 103rd and 106th Guards Airborne Divisions are massing in airfields near Baku. All of this is explained to the United States as "routine exercises".

March 1980: Iraq's armed forces go on a high state of alert, and deploy to the border of the disputed Shatt-el-Arab region. Soon, "shoving matches" and cross-border artillery duels become the norm.

March 10th, 1980: A Soviet hand picked force of Desant troops and and a assualt force made up of Spetznaz, Kaskad and Muslim Battalion (The folks who took down the Afghani Presidential Palace) veterans and and a element of KGB's Alpha Group are inserted into Tehran by air landing from IL-76s (Namely, Spetsnaz took over the airport ala Prague 1968) and the troops head off to liberate the international hostages. The orders to the Soviet commander is to bring out ALL hostages. The order is obeyed, but at a high price, 1/2 the assault force is killed and the Desant Brigade holding the Airport takes 30% casualties as the Iranian Army shows up to back the RG human wave assaults. Worse, 10 American and 20 other Western hostages either die in the assault or are killed in Iranian reprisals. Furthermore, the Soviet Airforce is forced to intervene against Iranian F-4s that attempt to interfere with the assault force's egress, in the air battle, 10 aircraft, 6 Soviet and 4 Iranian are lost. The US awakens to the next day with Brezhnev promising "terrible retribution for the loss of so many innocent lives" and demands the US does something or that it will. The tempo of exercises in Central Asia increase and soon, border incidents between Iran and the Soviets begin to occur.

April 1980: The People's Republic of China and Iran ink a deal for $250 million in "educational and devlopment funds" with Iran. Iraq denounces this as meddling and it sends more forces to it's border with Iran. A Soviet Air Assault Brigade arrives in Baghdad for "joint exercises with our fraternal Arab cousins."
 
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MikeTurcotte

I like this, but I don't think the Iranians were that suicidal. They did release the American hostages eventually after all. Dealing with the Soviets in this way would have suicide, and they knew it.

Of course, this would have been a wake-up call to the US and West about the dangers of Islamic fundementalism. Taking on one superpower is bold; taking on two is just plain insane, especially when the Shia Iranians are surrounded by not just the USSR, but hordes of Sunnis who have no love for them either. This would rank up with Pearl Harbor in the all-time ranking of REALLY BAD IDEAS and that the Iranians knew that and did it anyway is a real issue.

More than likely, Iran is divided (ala WWII) between a Soviet North and a US/EU/Sunni 'Allies' (including Saddam Hussien) South. Presuming the Soviets fall apart on schedule, the situation get REAL interesting.

Mike
 

Super_Cool

The UN security council is definitely going to do something about the crisis if this happened. The only one that might veto the action is China, but even if it did, there would still be action. It could force a cooperation between the USA and the USSR in the middle of the Cold War, which would have been awesome.

I like the "right and left hands of Satan" line, BTW.
 

Svartekaptenen

Banned
this is quite interesting, 20 years ago I hated the Soviet communists, but now I am prepared to back them all the way because they defend the white race, I know this is not PC correct but realise something people: the politicians in my country hates me, belive me they have stated this several times, why, because I am white, male and westerner. So I am prepared to support anything that will contribute control of Europe to the white race. I do know that several people will hate me for this but I simply do not care.
 

xchen08

Awe, such an interesting thread too, then the Nazi shows up.

Can anyone say CoDominium? We're talking the Soviets and the United States fighting together for the first time since WWII against a common enemy.

Unlikely I know, but hey, it could happen.
 

Svartekaptenen

Banned
xchen08 said:
Awe, such an interesting thread too, then the Nazi shows up.

Can anyone say CoDominium? We're talking the Soviets and the United States fighting together for the first time since WWII against a common enemy.

Unlikely I know, but hey, it could happen.
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So I am a nazi? because I feel that the white race are not doomed to oblivion, that is quite interesting! I am prepared to do anything to defend my children which are girls and white and you are calling me a nazi, you apperently do not see the situation in my country where a white person cannot go outside after 19.00, but of course it does not fit in your worldpicture does it?
 

HJ Tulp

Svartekaptenen said:
So I am a nazi? because I feel that the white race are not doomed to oblivion, that is quite interesting! I am prepared to do anything to defend my children which are girls and white and you are calling me a nazi, you apperently do not see the situation in my country where a white person cannot go outside after 19.00, but of course it does not fit in your worldpicture does it?
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HA! Which country might that be?
 

Super_Cool

Svartekaptenen said:
So I am a nazi? because I feel that the white race are not doomed to oblivion, that is quite interesting! I am prepared to do anything to defend my children which are girls and white and you are calling me a nazi, you apperently do not see the situation in my country where a white person cannot go outside after 19.00, but of course it does not fit in your worldpicture does it?
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Racist white fathers always have daughters who date exclusively black guys.

You've been warned.
 

Axeman

Ignore the nazi if you guys want to , just pay no attention.

I love this timeline by the way , keep it up!
 

Panzerfaust 150

Banned
Well,
Short of "US-Soviet curbstomp" or "replay of the runup of 'Threads'". I was out of ideas...

Some of the ones I have played around with are:

1) The Soviets and US invade Iran, and each race for the gulf oil fields and Tehran, sitrep resembles something like the Harold Coyle novel Sword Point. But how does any fighting stay confined to Iran, or do we prevent potential nuclear release?

2) The US and Soviets invade after making an agreement, stomp Iran into the ground, with the Chinese arming Iranian guerrillas in a long nasty insurgency. Hilarity does not ensue.

3) The Soviets support the OTL Iraqi invasion along the lines of their support for the Ethiopians in the Ogden War in 1977? Perhaps a Cuban Motor Rifle Brigade or three join the Iraqis?
​
 

Matt Wiser

Actually, it's not that far-fetched: In Mark Bowden's Guests of the Ayatollah: he talked to some of the hostage-takers and found out that their original plan was to seize both the U.S. and Soviet Embassies. If that happens, my guess is that the Soviets decide to postpone the Afghan operation and concentrate on Iran. You might even see some kind of summit meeting before that, with the Soviets proposing a joint invasion similar to the 1941 Anglo-Soviet Invasion of Iran. Given that Carter was under tremendous pressure in the early days (even from members of his own inner circle, especially his SECDEF and National Security Advisor) to take military action, regardless of consequences, he may have had no choice but to go along with such an operation.

As far as the Chinese go, forget it. Dung-shao-Peng had just normalized relations with the U.S., and he wants China to come into the modern world. He's not going to waste money and resources helping out a mad religious fundamentalist who despises both superpowers and is urging revolt against "Un-Islamic" countries-including the PRC-which does keep the lid on its own Muslim population.
 

Dan Reilly The Great

Banned
I like this one too, it's an iran hostage crisis TL that doesn't revolve around getting carter re-elected(although under these circumstances I think he would.) I see the Russians and Americans doubleteaming Iran like the scrawny new guy in the prison shower room. Carter gets credit for taking a strong stance with an enemy of the US and simultaneously warming up relations with the Russians, in the end he wins re-election by the narrowest of margins. Iran gets divided up into zones of occupation like Germany post WWII with possible plans for the Iraqi's to take over in a few years. Meanwhile the Russians get more of the oil fields due to carter believing in getting the US off of oil dependency. US and Russian relations stay friendlier in the late 80s than in OTL, as a result due to less defence spending, the USSR takes about 3-5 more years to break up. The occupation of Iran starts to look like Germany of "The Man With an Iron Heart" with the US pulling out and the Russians and Iraqi's left holding the bag. The US recession of the early 90's isn't as bad due to a better economic policy of a non Reaganized US government, and some years later we arent bitten in the ass by the failed idiocy of Reaganomics like in OTL.

Everybody gets along nicely and, for christmas it's puppies for everyone :)
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Panzerfaust 150 said:
Thanks, I appreciate it.
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What's interesting is that this one had been a member for better than two years.

Usually they flip out a LOT faster than that.


To the original idea -

While it is an interesting take on the Crisis it doesn't take into consideration who we are talking about. This isn't the USSR of Gorbachev, or even of Khrushchev, this is the Brezhnev era. Brezhnev wasn't secure enough to play around with some sort of half measure. The Soviets would have torn the Iranians a new one, especially if they also saw the chance to embarrass the U.S. & the West at the same time.

I remember seeing an interview with a senior Soviet Ambassador (it might have been the UN rep) back in November of 1979, a couple of days after the takeover. When the reporter asked what the USSR would do if it was their embassy that had been taken, his reply illustrated why this scenario isn't workable.


Our people would be in a aircraft headed back to Moscow even as we speak
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When the follow-up question "What if they weren't released by the Students in Tehran?" was asked he replied, with just a trace of a smile

In that case there wouldn't be a Tehran anymore.
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and the guy just walked into his destination like he'd said "Hello".

I had no doubt then, and none now, that he was stating Soviet policy.

It is also worth remembering that in 1985, when Lebanon was coming apart four Soviet diplomats got ambushed and kidnapped, with one getting killed during the snatch (almost certainly by mistake). The Soviets responded by sending in a SPECOPS KGB Team who explained the error of this action by grabbing several senior Hezbollah leaders and/or their families right out of their homes in the middle of Beirut. The Chekas opened the dialog by sending one of the senior Hezbollah leaders back home in a bunch of shoe boxes with a note promising to send two Hezbollah prisoners back as jigsaw puzzles every DAY until the Soviet diplomats were released. The Soviets were released the following day.

Ivan didn't play around.
 

Wendell

These circumstances likely help Reagan in 1980, but could change signficantly the final years of the Soviet Union.
 
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