So WI Yelow stone erupted, it had a.very high chance of erupting based on patterns. So say it happens. However Yellowstone only partially erupts sending maybe 100 cubic miles of dust and rock into te air. What happens to USA and how does this event affect the world.
WI Yellowstone supervolcanoe erupts in 1941
- Thread starter Alexius I Kommenos
- Start date
The Other Les
Banned
The Austrian Corporal will declare that this is a sign that God is on his side.
Well, that's the obvious one.
I would have to agree; telling someone to just use the Search function is a fine response when it's a topic that has been done to death, but when it's just something that's come up a couple times over the many years AH.com has been around there's no reason there can't be a new thread to discuss the matter.
Yellowstone erupting means that the US stays out of World War II in any significant way. Considering the fact that everything west of the Rockies is going to be devastated, the US would need years (maybe even decades) to fully rebuild its power-projection capabilities in the Pacific. Isolationism would dominate the political scene, since everyone would care far more about rebuilding than wars in Europe and Asia. The embargo against Japan doesn't come up/gets dropped (depending on when in 1941 the eruption happens) since the US needs all the trade it can get for rebuilding funds. Lend-Lease goes away, although the US probably retains cash-and-carry; every bit of trade they can get will help.
If the eruption happens after Pearl Harbor, the US would basically have to concede its Pacific holdings to Japan; with the entire West Coast smashed to bits operating any significant military force in the Pacific would be impossible. The US would probably have to settle for sending expeditionary forces to Australia and New Zealand and relying on the allies to keep them supplied. Europe probably only gets a token force, since a major military deployment when the homeland is in ruins would be politically impossible.
Yellowstone erupting means that the US stays out of World War II in any significant way. Considering the fact that everything west of the Rockies is going to be devastated, the US would need years (maybe even decades) to fully rebuild its power-projection capabilities in the Pacific. Isolationism would dominate the political scene, since everyone would care far more about rebuilding than wars in Europe and Asia. The embargo against Japan doesn't come up/gets dropped (depending on when in 1941 the eruption happens) since the US needs all the trade it can get for rebuilding funds. Lend-Lease goes away, although the US probably retains cash-and-carry; every bit of trade they can get will help.
If the eruption happens after Pearl Harbor, the US would basically have to concede its Pacific holdings to Japan; with the entire West Coast smashed to bits operating any significant military force in the Pacific would be impossible. The US would probably have to settle for sending expeditionary forces to Australia and New Zealand and relying on the allies to keep them supplied. Europe probably only gets a token force, since a major military deployment when the homeland is in ruins would be politically impossible.
Effectively, it depends on how violent the eruption is...
However, the climatic effects of the eruption will influence the events of World War II, in that depending on what time of the year Yellowstone erupts, will effect the harvesting season of 1941...
Almost certainly, there will be mass famine globally, for the next couple of years, due to the ejecta entering the upper atmosphere.
(The 1942 growing/harvesting season will be abysmal to say the least, if possibly non existent in the Northern Hemisphere, due to the above...).
You can make the argument that if Yellowstone erupts in 1941, than World War II effectively ends on that date...
However, the climatic effects of the eruption will influence the events of World War II, in that depending on what time of the year Yellowstone erupts, will effect the harvesting season of 1941...
Almost certainly, there will be mass famine globally, for the next couple of years, due to the ejecta entering the upper atmosphere.
(The 1942 growing/harvesting season will be abysmal to say the least, if possibly non existent in the Northern Hemisphere, due to the above...).
You can make the argument that if Yellowstone erupts in 1941, than World War II effectively ends on that date...
There's a pre-existing thread on this in the ASB forum. It's been discussed at length, and I think geological PODs are supposed to stay in ASB anyway.
Why is that ASB?
Such an eruption would reduce the global temperature by 5°C.
In Europe there would be snow in Jully and the United Kingdom and Ireland would have a polar climate. It would send the Earth in a new glaciation age. Millions if not billions of peoples and wild live would die of starvation.
Such an eruption would reduce the global temperature by 5°C.
In Europe there would be snow in Jully and the United Kingdom and Ireland would have a polar climate. It would send the Earth in a new glaciation age. Millions if not billions of peoples and wild live would die of starvation.
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Thande
Donor
Convention on this forum is that geological PODs are ASB. You can debate whether they actually are or not but they just go in the ASB forum by convention. Yellowstone eruptions are a very interesting and underused idea though.
Timelines and speculation over PODs involving geological processes are supposed to stay in the ASB forum. That's just the way it's always been.
Bavarian Raven
Banned
i've always throught this a silly rule. so many things could have happened to influence a volanco erruption (ie, one more asteroid impact), or the such. its not like (have wave) and a new continent is formed...
but thats just my thoughts on it. carry on.I agree it's a silly rule, but I suppose that it's best to stay consistent with these things.
I consistently ignore and oppose it.
And anyway, the main reason that people say that geological PoDs are ASB is that with a large geographical change, such as "WI No Americas" or the like, would mean that the human race probably wouldn't evolve as it did in OTL. Which is a bit absolutist on the butterflies and I tend to think that assuming the rise of humanity or an analogous species that we treat as humanity for the purposes of a discussion is not ASB.
That said, a volcanic eruption is not really in the same category. I've certainly seen threads about such-and-such a natural disaster from OTL _not_ happening, and no one said boo about that. Because it would be ridiculous to send such a thing to ASB. I think the reverse would be true. Allohistorical volcanic eruptions, storms, and other such phenomena should absolutely not be put in ASB. Geological PoDs I also think should be here as well, but that's a more gray area.
And anyway, the main reason that people say that geological PoDs are ASB is that with a large geographical change, such as "WI No Americas" or the like, would mean that the human race probably wouldn't evolve as it did in OTL. Which is a bit absolutist on the butterflies and I tend to think that assuming the rise of humanity or an analogous species that we treat as humanity for the purposes of a discussion is not ASB.
That said, a volcanic eruption is not really in the same category. I've certainly seen threads about such-and-such a natural disaster from OTL _not_ happening, and no one said boo about that. Because it would be ridiculous to send such a thing to ASB. I think the reverse would be true. Allohistorical volcanic eruptions, storms, and other such phenomena should absolutely not be put in ASB. Geological PoDs I also think should be here as well, but that's a more gray area.
If Yellowstone is too ASB, what about asteroid impact? The 1-km wide asteroid Hermes made two extremely close passes to Earth in October 1937 and in April 1942 ; if it had slammed into North America on either pass, it would have kept us out of the war.
Mmm actually about the yellowstone eruptio. I'm looking at a VEI 5.5-6 scale, so it reall isn't that threatening. Also Yellowstone ample evidence says it should erupt. Geologist have seen the pattern that every 600k years the volcanos erupts, it's a pattern, so in otl apparently it did not erupt due to it's lifeline cut. This is not ASB because Yellowstone is still an Active volcanoes, so I frankly can't see how this is ASB.
The "600k year" pattern is a myth. Yellowstone had major eruptions 2.1 million, 1.3 million, and 640 thousand years ago. That is an average of 730 thousand years apart. But the basic flaw is the fact that volcanoes don't erupt on a regular pattern.
To stay away from the asb discussion, i do think whenever Yellowstone supervulcano erupts, it will be a BIG eruption. Just due the size of its caldera.
Will it be an extinction event, not likely, far more population then during Toba.
Both the Toba explosion and the last Yellowstone were VEI 8 eruptions (1000m3). And Toba definately brought mankind close to beingh extinct.
Even if the eruption would just be a VEI7 the direct result would be a huge volcanic winter.
When it takes place in autumn/winter the effects might be slightly less due to the fact that all harvesting has already been done.
But when it takes place earlier in the year, expect widescale famine.
Will the US/Canada survive? in case of a VEI7 yes, although will lose quite some population.
In case of a VEI8: Not in a way that you will be able to recognize.
Result of VEi7: war effort will probably collapse, fight for survival will prevail, although society will most likely not collapse. Russia will get rather frigid for a while. Famine
Result of VEI8: Total collapse of society, chaos, return to the dark ages or something like it. Catastrophic famine. Large portion of human population will perish.
Will it be an extinction event, not likely, far more population then during Toba.
Both the Toba explosion and the last Yellowstone were VEI 8 eruptions (1000m3). And Toba definately brought mankind close to beingh extinct.
Even if the eruption would just be a VEI7 the direct result would be a huge volcanic winter.
When it takes place in autumn/winter the effects might be slightly less due to the fact that all harvesting has already been done.
But when it takes place earlier in the year, expect widescale famine.
Will the US/Canada survive? in case of a VEI7 yes, although will lose quite some population.
In case of a VEI8: Not in a way that you will be able to recognize.
Result of VEi7: war effort will probably collapse, fight for survival will prevail, although society will most likely not collapse. Russia will get rather frigid for a while. Famine
Result of VEI8: Total collapse of society, chaos, return to the dark ages or something like it. Catastrophic famine. Large portion of human population will perish.
I am inclined to agree. If this happens in 1941, World War II=over.