WI: What would have triggered a Soviet invasion of West Germany during the Cold War?

Deblano

Deblano

During the Cold War, what might have realistically triggered a Soviet invasion of West Germany, which would have sparked an intense Soviet-NATO war, and probably have led to the use of tactical nuclear weapons and eventually a full on nuclear exchange between the two superpowers?

Whether it would be an offensive invasion, or a counter-attack scenario as a result of a first-strike scenario by NATO forces, I'm curious as to what would spark either scenario.
 
Resurgam

Resurgam

The 1983 film The Day After follows your premise perfectly. It features the Soviets invading West Germany to counter a US-led NATO attempt to break a Soviet blockade of West Berlin, attempting to force NATO to abandon the city. Something similar, or the aforementioned Able Archer that same year, could do the trick.
 

ObssesedNuker

Most Soviet warplans invariably called for an invasion of West Germany either to pre-empt an imminent NATO invasion or as retaliation to a NATO attack.

In the latter case, the plans obviously called first for a temporary defensive action so as to halt and then repulse a NATO attack. So your best bet is either to get the Soviets in a position where they think NATO is about to conventionally attack them* or have NATO actually be stupid enough to haul off and them.

*Because if they think NATO is about to attack them with nukes, they'll pre-empt with nukes and everybody dies.
 

Matt Wiser

GDW's Third World War game from the 1980s had a Middle East scenario, where turmoil in Iran after Khomeini's death resulted in both the U.S. and Soviets sending in troops to support local factions, and once U.S. and Soviet forces began trading fire, the war expands to Europe, with said invasion of West Germany, as well as Norway and the Balkans.
 

Canadian Dragon

Any invasion by the Soviet military of a Middle Eastern country (take your pick!) could bring about a Soviet-led invasion of West Germany. That's exactly what happens in Threads after Iran gets invaded.
 

Forcon

The scenario from the war game kinda fits, if you modify it a little to be after the Sino-Soviet split.
Maybe in the early 70's North Korea invades the south. At this point (before the M-1 Abrams, A-10, Apache etc) North Korea probably had the advantage, atleast in the short term. The US goes tactical nuclear against north korea and possibly china, if they intervene.
The USSR blockades west berlin as a result and says they will continue to do so until the descision is withdraw. NATO attempts to break through the blockade, and makes some advances into east Germany, but the wasraw pact quickly mobilises fully and drives NATO out, continuing west into west Germany.
In this scenario I think that the WP nations would be alot more co-operative towards the USSR because it appears to be NATO who made the first move-even though the soviets did blockade west berlin, NATO was the first to actually invade.
 

ChazMo

Why has nobody mentioned a U.S. invasion of Cuba at the height of the Missile Crisis? Kennedy and his advisers considered West Germany a flashpoint of any potential move against Castro.
 

Dave Howery

Matt Wiser said:
GDW's Third World War game from the 1980s had a Middle East scenario, where turmoil in Iran after Khomeini's death resulted in both the U.S. and Soviets sending in troops to support local factions, and once U.S. and Soviet forces began trading fire, the war expands to Europe, with said invasion of West Germany, as well as Norway and the Balkans.
Click to expand...

I have that one (4 boxed games, right?). The game covering Scandinavia is interesting... and tough...
 

lucaswillen05

Soviet shortages in oil, grain and other similar resources combined with Western sanctions driving the economy towards financial ruin. Combine this with high tensions on the international scene such as was the caase during the early and mid 1980s. The Soviet leadership also misinterpret the defensive NATO buildup as preparation for an attack. The Sovoet leaders saw what happened in 1941 and do not wish to repeat this experience and decide to pre-empt what they think is a planned invasion.
 

cpip

Matt Wiser said:
GDW's Third World War game from the 1980s had a Middle East scenario, where turmoil in Iran after Khomeini's death resulted in both the U.S. and Soviets sending in troops to support local factions, and once U.S. and Soviet forces began trading fire, the war expands to Europe, with said invasion of West Germany, as well as Norway and the Balkans.
Click to expand...

Dave Howery said:
I have that one (4 boxed games, right?). The game covering Scandinavia is interesting... and tough...
Click to expand...

An old wargaming friend of mine can still crush my soul simply by smiling at me and saying, "The gates of Tehran".

Darn USMC expeditionary forces...

I actually did like the basic concept set forth in the fourth game, Persian Gulf, which set up the other three games in differing scenarios. Depending on how the "pre-war" turns played out in that, the only constant surety was "Superpower Intervention in the Iranian Civil War ends with the Superpowers shooting at each other."

However, one could have either NATO or the Soviet forces have shot first, and also to have launched the opening moves in Germany that follow.
 
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