Straha
Banned
What would have happened had Wilkie defeated FDR in 1940?
heres my ideas
I have slightly revised the electoral college strength of the states to
create a country a tiny bit more likely to buy Wilkie’s last minute push
against FDR the interventionist. I have also made the 1948 split of the
Demo Party start a bit sooner. As final presumptions I am allowing that a
bit more info on FDR’s fading health (already a problem at this time) gets
out ( worth say a point or two) and that Farley’s anti 3rd term push catches
a bit of fire ( worth say 2-3 points ). The rest is a left and Dixie syphon
off to splinter tickets.
Nov 40 : Wilkie wins narrow victory:
Vt, NH, Me, PA, Ky, TN, OH, IN, MI, WS, MN, IA, MO, ND, SD, KS, NE, OK, TX,
NM, AZ, NV, UT, CO, WY, MT, ID, CA, OR, WA
3+4=7+5=12+38=50+9=59+11=70+25=95+13=108+11=119+13=132+13=145=+10=155+13=168+4=1\
72+5=177+8=185+6=191+8=199+24=223+4=227+4=231+3=234+4=238+5=243+4=247+5=252+32=2\
84+5=289+7=296
Ma, RI, Cn, NY, NJ, De, MD, Va, WVa, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, Ms, La, Ark, IL
= 16+5=21+9=30+47=77+15=
92+3=95+10=105+12=117+10=127+14=141+8=149+12=161+18=179+11=190+10=200+10=210+10=\
220+29=249
Wilkie :45.6
FDR: 44.0
Thomas (Socialist) : 6.3
Browder (CP – Pop Front) : 1.7
Russell (SR Demo): 3.3
Misc: 1.1
House:
Soc – 1
Cp – 1
Demo – 168
Prog Rep – 40
SRDemo + Dixiecrats – 78
GOP = 147
Senate:
Dem – 29
P Rep – 10
GOP – 38
SR Demo – 19
Essentially this configuration changes the domestic component of the
debate. In OTL there was an effective deadlock from 1937-1964 on domestic
issues in Congress. A large minority wanted to continue the radical
domestic reforms of the first and second new deals to a postcapitalist
future. A large minority wanted to roll back part or all of the New Deal –
usually those portions that did not immediately benefit their consituants.
A floating mix of progressive Republicans, mavericks in both major parties
and southern democrats (except on the race issue) were unwilling to greatly
curtail or enlarge the structure of 1936-37. They were willing to
marginally contract or expand the total size of government and to tinker
with specific programs.
Part of the obcession with foreign policy in this period was the domestic
deadlock. A GOP President ( even a moderate like Wilkie) with strong but
not overpowering numbers in both houses would be forced to try more. The
reforms would be too recent to become part of the accepted order and the
losers in 1932-37 too eager for revenge.
Paradoxically this means that the President was likely to get a far easier
time of it on defense and foreign issues short of war. This is especially
so of a Republican who did not carry the Wilsonian baggage of FDR. So you
would actually get:
1. MORE spending on defense, especially navy and air which jibe with America
First viewpoints and whose $ get spent by big Repubican companies
2. An easier time getting Lend Lease and the Draft Renewal through Congress
– more Republican votes going along as a matter of party loyalty
3. No Lend Lease to Red Russia
4. Lend Lease for ethnopolitical reasons to the Free Danes in Iceland,
Greenland and the Faeroes; Eire; Sweden; Finland
5. An end to good neighbor policies in the western Hemisphere. US garrisons
back in the Carib – South America playing off London, Berlin and Moscow
against Washington’s heavy hand
6. A more grasping policy at the margins v the UK dominated Free Europe bloc
as regards scooping up colonial possessions and ready financial / industrial
assets
7. A much heavier hand and therefore worse relations with Canada and Mexico
8. Earlier US occupation of Greenland and Iceland
9. A strong possibility of a US premptive strike against the midAtlantic
island chains – Azores, Maderias, Canaries, Cape Verdes
10. A much larger Alaskan garrison – possibly taking advantage of Russia’s
troubles to seize back Wrangel Island which the Reds had poached in 1923
11. A somewhat easier refugee policy – FDR had to be a tightass on this in
part to appease the marginal votes in the South and Midwest – Wilkie would
be easier to appease the marginal votes in the big ethnic cities – no
massive refugee waves – but many exceptions for crucial skills and family
reunions
The two big questions:
1. Does Britain stay in the war? A large bloc of the Conservative party
felt that the US was prepared to fight till the last Englishman.
Churchill’s illusion of hope during the crisis ( Dunkirk – Pearl Harbor) was
to keep waving the possibility of US intervention and his ‘special
relationship’ with FDR. With FDR gone, the Tories could have summoned the
nerve to dump Winnie and open serious negotiations for a separate peace –
especially after the Hess mission, the Greek disaster and Barbarossa.
2. Japan policy: this is the 800 pound gorrilla who sits where ever he
wants. Wilkie would take office with a coalition of isolationists, America
Firsters and the China Lobby behind him. Does he send the fleet to Pearl?
Does he strip ships from the Pacific Fleet for a major Atlantic squadron
(Richardson was sacked as CincPac for protesting this)? Does he give Lend
Lease to Chiang? Does he make an economic embargo on Japan over Indochina?
All of these are extremely open issues. My views are guesses with no
probabilities attached. I think that he does NOT give Lend Lease to Chiang
but allows the China Lobby to blatently violate the neutrality laws. I am
50-50 on the Flying Tigers. I do not see an economic embargo. I do see a
budding SEATO in which he forms an antiJapanese bloc of the US – Australia –
New Zealand – Canada – UK – Netherland East Indies to block any Japanese
move beyond Indochina – Siam. FDR was antiimperialist. The GOP was more
blatently racist and more big business oriented. I see all of the above
leading to no Pearl Harbor. Japan bleeds herself to death in China as
neither Mao nor Chiang will ever surrender no matter how many temporary
truces they sign.
So the world war ends in say 1946 in Europe with Hitler’s army dug in on a
line from Murmansk to the Svir to Thvikin to the Vladi Hills to Rzhev to
Tula to Voronzezh to the Donnets to Rostov to the Kuban. An exhausted
Stalin takes a standstill peace. Britain has left the war in 1942. It
holds its empire plus the Belgian Congo, French Equatorial Africa, Italian
East Africa, Syria, Lebanon, Crete, Persia, Afghanistan, Madagascar, Tibet,
Libya. An embittered Vichy is a semially of Germany but still holds West
and North Afrika. Spain, Portugal, Switzerland, and Sweden are independent
but within the German bloc. An embittered Italy is Germany’s economic and
military vassal. Turkey is truly neutral behind mountains of American aid.
The China War declines into endemic border clashes by the early 1950’s but
no formal peace is ever signed. Chiang gets his lend lease in 42-43 via a
US – UK built road and railway across the roof of the world : Karachi –
Kashmir – Tibet – Chunking. The US is the predominant economic power and a
great military power but has never entered the war. First US atom bomb is
still July 1945. First British is August 1948 in the Australian desert.
Germany and Russia get their bomb in the early 50’s. Massive competition
for influence in South America. Autarcic economic blocks. H bombs at same
intervals as the Fuchs and Rosenberg rings are crushed by the FBI and RCMP
BEFORE they do much damage. A much earlier and better funded space race
carry the US and Germany to orbit in the 50’s. By today everything from the
Belt inwards has stations from the US, Brit Empire, German Europea, the USSR
and Japan. India stays in the British Empire as a selfgoverning dominion with a massive Brit garrision. Ghandi dies in a British jail. Nelson Mandella is still a
prisoner on Robinette island.
heres my ideas
I have slightly revised the electoral college strength of the states to
create a country a tiny bit more likely to buy Wilkie’s last minute push
against FDR the interventionist. I have also made the 1948 split of the
Demo Party start a bit sooner. As final presumptions I am allowing that a
bit more info on FDR’s fading health (already a problem at this time) gets
out ( worth say a point or two) and that Farley’s anti 3rd term push catches
a bit of fire ( worth say 2-3 points ). The rest is a left and Dixie syphon
off to splinter tickets.
Nov 40 : Wilkie wins narrow victory:
Vt, NH, Me, PA, Ky, TN, OH, IN, MI, WS, MN, IA, MO, ND, SD, KS, NE, OK, TX,
NM, AZ, NV, UT, CO, WY, MT, ID, CA, OR, WA
3+4=7+5=12+38=50+9=59+11=70+25=95+13=108+11=119+13=132+13=145=+10=155+13=168+4=1\
72+5=177+8=185+6=191+8=199+24=223+4=227+4=231+3=234+4=238+5=243+4=247+5=252+32=2\
84+5=289+7=296
Ma, RI, Cn, NY, NJ, De, MD, Va, WVa, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, Ms, La, Ark, IL
= 16+5=21+9=30+47=77+15=
92+3=95+10=105+12=117+10=127+14=141+8=149+12=161+18=179+11=190+10=200+10=210+10=\
220+29=249
Wilkie :45.6
FDR: 44.0
Thomas (Socialist) : 6.3
Browder (CP – Pop Front) : 1.7
Russell (SR Demo): 3.3
Misc: 1.1
House:
Soc – 1
Cp – 1
Demo – 168
Prog Rep – 40
SRDemo + Dixiecrats – 78
GOP = 147
Senate:
Dem – 29
P Rep – 10
GOP – 38
SR Demo – 19
Essentially this configuration changes the domestic component of the
debate. In OTL there was an effective deadlock from 1937-1964 on domestic
issues in Congress. A large minority wanted to continue the radical
domestic reforms of the first and second new deals to a postcapitalist
future. A large minority wanted to roll back part or all of the New Deal –
usually those portions that did not immediately benefit their consituants.
A floating mix of progressive Republicans, mavericks in both major parties
and southern democrats (except on the race issue) were unwilling to greatly
curtail or enlarge the structure of 1936-37. They were willing to
marginally contract or expand the total size of government and to tinker
with specific programs.
Part of the obcession with foreign policy in this period was the domestic
deadlock. A GOP President ( even a moderate like Wilkie) with strong but
not overpowering numbers in both houses would be forced to try more. The
reforms would be too recent to become part of the accepted order and the
losers in 1932-37 too eager for revenge.
Paradoxically this means that the President was likely to get a far easier
time of it on defense and foreign issues short of war. This is especially
so of a Republican who did not carry the Wilsonian baggage of FDR. So you
would actually get:
1. MORE spending on defense, especially navy and air which jibe with America
First viewpoints and whose $ get spent by big Repubican companies
2. An easier time getting Lend Lease and the Draft Renewal through Congress
– more Republican votes going along as a matter of party loyalty
3. No Lend Lease to Red Russia
4. Lend Lease for ethnopolitical reasons to the Free Danes in Iceland,
Greenland and the Faeroes; Eire; Sweden; Finland
5. An end to good neighbor policies in the western Hemisphere. US garrisons
back in the Carib – South America playing off London, Berlin and Moscow
against Washington’s heavy hand
6. A more grasping policy at the margins v the UK dominated Free Europe bloc
as regards scooping up colonial possessions and ready financial / industrial
assets
7. A much heavier hand and therefore worse relations with Canada and Mexico
8. Earlier US occupation of Greenland and Iceland
9. A strong possibility of a US premptive strike against the midAtlantic
island chains – Azores, Maderias, Canaries, Cape Verdes
10. A much larger Alaskan garrison – possibly taking advantage of Russia’s
troubles to seize back Wrangel Island which the Reds had poached in 1923
11. A somewhat easier refugee policy – FDR had to be a tightass on this in
part to appease the marginal votes in the South and Midwest – Wilkie would
be easier to appease the marginal votes in the big ethnic cities – no
massive refugee waves – but many exceptions for crucial skills and family
reunions
The two big questions:
1. Does Britain stay in the war? A large bloc of the Conservative party
felt that the US was prepared to fight till the last Englishman.
Churchill’s illusion of hope during the crisis ( Dunkirk – Pearl Harbor) was
to keep waving the possibility of US intervention and his ‘special
relationship’ with FDR. With FDR gone, the Tories could have summoned the
nerve to dump Winnie and open serious negotiations for a separate peace –
especially after the Hess mission, the Greek disaster and Barbarossa.
2. Japan policy: this is the 800 pound gorrilla who sits where ever he
wants. Wilkie would take office with a coalition of isolationists, America
Firsters and the China Lobby behind him. Does he send the fleet to Pearl?
Does he strip ships from the Pacific Fleet for a major Atlantic squadron
(Richardson was sacked as CincPac for protesting this)? Does he give Lend
Lease to Chiang? Does he make an economic embargo on Japan over Indochina?
All of these are extremely open issues. My views are guesses with no
probabilities attached. I think that he does NOT give Lend Lease to Chiang
but allows the China Lobby to blatently violate the neutrality laws. I am
50-50 on the Flying Tigers. I do not see an economic embargo. I do see a
budding SEATO in which he forms an antiJapanese bloc of the US – Australia –
New Zealand – Canada – UK – Netherland East Indies to block any Japanese
move beyond Indochina – Siam. FDR was antiimperialist. The GOP was more
blatently racist and more big business oriented. I see all of the above
leading to no Pearl Harbor. Japan bleeds herself to death in China as
neither Mao nor Chiang will ever surrender no matter how many temporary
truces they sign.
So the world war ends in say 1946 in Europe with Hitler’s army dug in on a
line from Murmansk to the Svir to Thvikin to the Vladi Hills to Rzhev to
Tula to Voronzezh to the Donnets to Rostov to the Kuban. An exhausted
Stalin takes a standstill peace. Britain has left the war in 1942. It
holds its empire plus the Belgian Congo, French Equatorial Africa, Italian
East Africa, Syria, Lebanon, Crete, Persia, Afghanistan, Madagascar, Tibet,
Libya. An embittered Vichy is a semially of Germany but still holds West
and North Afrika. Spain, Portugal, Switzerland, and Sweden are independent
but within the German bloc. An embittered Italy is Germany’s economic and
military vassal. Turkey is truly neutral behind mountains of American aid.
The China War declines into endemic border clashes by the early 1950’s but
no formal peace is ever signed. Chiang gets his lend lease in 42-43 via a
US – UK built road and railway across the roof of the world : Karachi –
Kashmir – Tibet – Chunking. The US is the predominant economic power and a
great military power but has never entered the war. First US atom bomb is
still July 1945. First British is August 1948 in the Australian desert.
Germany and Russia get their bomb in the early 50’s. Massive competition
for influence in South America. Autarcic economic blocks. H bombs at same
intervals as the Fuchs and Rosenberg rings are crushed by the FBI and RCMP
BEFORE they do much damage. A much earlier and better funded space race
carry the US and Germany to orbit in the 50’s. By today everything from the
Belt inwards has stations from the US, Brit Empire, German Europea, the USSR
and Japan. India stays in the British Empire as a selfgoverning dominion with a massive Brit garrision. Ghandi dies in a British jail. Nelson Mandella is still a
prisoner on Robinette island.