One of the things I find interesting in history was OTL's Charles V and the idea of a universal Christian monarchy. Charles V is often considered closest to this idea in the early modern era, with him having ruled the Hapsburg lands, much of the Burgundian inheritance, Spain, and parts of Italy. Now of course, his dream of a universal monarchy was scuppered on the shoals of French resistance. Following his death, and the effects of the Protestant reformation, European political history developed in favour of smaller political units which developed in turn into nation states.
But what if there had, instead of Charles V of Hapsburg, arose in the 16th century a more geographically cohesive empire, which would still possibly have aspirations of catholic universal monarchy. How would the history of Europe develop?
The first thing to get around is the problem of France, who OTL fought its damndest to break Hapsburg power which threatened to encircle it. France would need to be part of this universal monarchy, for it to be functional. This likely means a Valois king, instead of a Hapsburg one.
To further discussion, and not have it bogged too much in the "how" such a union came into being, assume a timeline roughly along this pattern:
POINT OF DIVERGENCE:
The POD is the survival of the younger brother of Louis XI of France, OTL's Charles Duke of Berry. OTL, Charles was serially in conflict with his brother Louis, and had first exchanged his appanage of the Duchy of Berry for the Duchy of Normandy, and then in turn, exchanged that for the Duchy of Aquitaine. After obtaining that appanage, Charles actually started including a Plantagenet lion in his coat of arms .
OTL, Charles of Aquitaine was in the process of being engaged to Mary of Burgundy, daughter of Charles the Bold, and Charles of Aquitaine's ally against Louis XI. Historically, Louis XI tried to stop this marriage by preventing the papal dispensation, on the grounds of consanguinity, for Mary and Charles of Aquitaine to be married. Louis XI failed in this, and the dispensation was granted.
However, it all came for naught because Charles of Aquitaine died before the marriage could happen. He died either of tuberculosis, a venereal disease, or a combination of the two.
The POD then, is that Charles of Aquitaine does not die. He marries Mary of Burgundy, and they have heirs.
The mechanics of the POD itself is not overly important. Either Charles never has his mistress Colette de Chambres, who he likely got his venereal disease from, or he never catches tuberculosis, or some other combination.
The important thing is that Charles of Aquitaine lives long enough for him to have children with Mary of Burgundy. Charles and Mary's male heirs then become the next most senior Valois branch, after the children of Louis XI.
TIMELINE OF INHERITANCE
1472: Charles, Duke of Aquitaine, the second son of Charles VII of France, does not die on May 24, 1472 at age 25.
1473: Charles and Mary of Burgundy are married. Mary is 15 and Charles 26.
1474 - 1477: Charles I, the Bold, of Burgundy still gets himself involved in the same series of events that leads to his death. He dies fighting the Swiss and the Lorrainers, leaving Burgundy to his only heir, Mary and her husband, Charles, Duke of Aquitaine.
1476: December - Mary gives birth to her first child, a son named Philip. He will be the couple’s only surviving son.
1477: January 5 - Charles the Bold dies at Nancy. His daughter is proclaimed duchess, and she begins co-rule with her husband Charles, Duke of Aquitaine. They rule as Mary I and Charles II.
1478: Peace is made between the two brothers. Charles II of Burgundy gives up the Duchy of Aquitaine as appanage in exchange for recognition of his rule in Burgundy, again as appanage.
1479: Mary of Burgundy gives birth to Margaret, their oldest surviving daughter.
1481: Mary of Burgundy gives birth to Isabella, their second oldest surviving daughter.
1483: Charles II, Duke of Burgundy (jure uxoris) dies in February, predeceasing his older brother Louis XI of France. His wife Mary will rule for an additional 37 years.
1484: Mary, aged 27, remarries to Maximillian of Hapsburg, aged 25. The match soon develops into a love-match.
1485: Mary gives birth to Frederick, her only son by Maximillian. The couple will have no other surviving children, but Frederick lives until adulthood.
1491: Charles VIII of France marries an ALT version of Anne of Brittany, the only heiress to Brittany.
1496: Mary’s eldest son (the Valois one) is engaged and then marries a Spanish infanta – an ALT version of Joanna, as part of anti-French alliance building of the Trastamara and Hapsburgs and Burgundians. Despite some discussion of her marrying Frederick, Mary insists the Spanish match go to her son Philip, who is set to inherit the Burgundian lands (her son Frederick is set to inherit the Hapsburg lands). As the anti-french alliance is more important to the Burgundians, so is the Spanish match.
1497: Mary’s daughter Margaret marries the Spanish male heir, an ALT version of John, Prince of Asturias. They still die childless, and John dies without inheriting the thrones of Castile and Aragon.
1498: Isabella of Castile gives birth to an ALT Miguel da Paz. She does not long survive the birth of her son.
1500: Philip of Burgundy and ALT Joanna have their first son, named Charles (my apologies for the proliferation of Charles…).
1501: Arthur, prince of Wales, marries a Spanish Infanta, ALT Catherine of Aragon.
1503: Arthur and ALT Catherine have their oldest surviving daughter, named Mary.
1504: Isabella, queen of Castile, dies. The throne of Castile passes to her grandson, Miguel, son of the King of Portugal and Isabella of Castile. He is six years old.
1506: ALT Catherine and Arthur, prince of Wales, have their only son to reach adulthood, named Henry.
1510: Henry VII of England dies. He is succeeded by his son Arthur I of England.
1512: Miguel, King of Castile, dies at age 14. The throne of Castile passes to his aunt, ALT Joanna and Phillip of Burgundy.
1513: Philip of Burgundy and ALT Joanna move to Castile
1514: Anne of Brittany, Queen of France, dies, having suffered many pregnancies and only producing one surviving daughter to her husband, Charles VIII.
1515: Charles VIII remarries, in an effort to obtain a son. In an effort to secure relations with the English, he marries a Tudor princess (daughter of Henry VII).
1516: Charles VIII’s first son, Louis, is born.
1518: Charles VIII’s second son, Charles, is born.
1519: Maximillian, Holy Roman emperor, dies. His wife outlives him by one year.
1520: Princess Mary of England marries Mary of Burgundy’s son, Charles of Valois-Burgundy.
1521: Philip IV of Burgundy returns from Spain to secure his inheritance, nervous of his half-brother Ferdinand. Despite some tension, he inherits his mother’s lands. He reconnects with his son Charles, who he has not seen in almost a decade.
1522: Henry, Duke of York, dies in a jousting accident. The only surviving male Tudors are Arthur I and his son Henry, prince of Wales. He leaves only daughters.
1526: Louis XII of France, aged only 9, dies. He is succeeded by his younger brother, Charles IX of France.
1530: Henry, prince of Wales, dies of a disease. He leaves behind one daughter, named Catherine, aged two years old. Under Catherine’s influence, Arthur begins setting the stage for young Catherine to inherit the throne.
1535: Catherine of Aragon, Queen of England, dies aged 50.
1536: Catherine, princess of Wales, dies.
1537: Arthur I of England dies, allegedly of grief over the death of his wife and his son Henry, and his granddaughter. The throne passes to his oldest surviving daughter, Mary, who is married to Charles of Burgundy, and their heirs.
1540: Charles IX of France dies as a result of a jousting match, celebrating the birth of his son. His son is crowned as Charles X, but does not survive to live past 1 years old.
1541: Charles X dies as a baby. The throne passes to the next agnatic male heir, Charles III of Burgundy.
State of Affairs in 1541: Charles III of Burgundy half-uncle is the holy Roman emperor, Frederick IV.
1544: Frederick IV, Holy Roman Emperor, dies. The Hapsburg lands are divided between his four sons, all of whom bear the title archduke of Austria. Austria goes to the eldest, Styria and Carinthia to second eldest, and Tyrol and further Austria to third eldest, and Italian lands to fourth son.
1551: Mary I of England dies, passing the throne of England to her son Philip.
1553: ALT Joanna dies. The throne of Castile and Aragon passes to her son Charles XI of France and III of Burgundy.
1558: Charles XI of France, I of Spain and III of Burgundy dies, passing the thrones Spain, France and Burgundy to his son Philip, King of England.
SUMMARY of ALT MONARCHS since POD
Kings of England
QUESTIONS
Now, the above timeline is mostly a rough idea of inheritance. It does not really encompass any of the religious developments and other political realities.
So here are some questions I have:
But what if there had, instead of Charles V of Hapsburg, arose in the 16th century a more geographically cohesive empire, which would still possibly have aspirations of catholic universal monarchy. How would the history of Europe develop?
The first thing to get around is the problem of France, who OTL fought its damndest to break Hapsburg power which threatened to encircle it. France would need to be part of this universal monarchy, for it to be functional. This likely means a Valois king, instead of a Hapsburg one.
To further discussion, and not have it bogged too much in the "how" such a union came into being, assume a timeline roughly along this pattern:
POINT OF DIVERGENCE:
The POD is the survival of the younger brother of Louis XI of France, OTL's Charles Duke of Berry. OTL, Charles was serially in conflict with his brother Louis, and had first exchanged his appanage of the Duchy of Berry for the Duchy of Normandy, and then in turn, exchanged that for the Duchy of Aquitaine. After obtaining that appanage, Charles actually started including a Plantagenet lion in his coat of arms .
OTL, Charles of Aquitaine was in the process of being engaged to Mary of Burgundy, daughter of Charles the Bold, and Charles of Aquitaine's ally against Louis XI. Historically, Louis XI tried to stop this marriage by preventing the papal dispensation, on the grounds of consanguinity, for Mary and Charles of Aquitaine to be married. Louis XI failed in this, and the dispensation was granted.
However, it all came for naught because Charles of Aquitaine died before the marriage could happen. He died either of tuberculosis, a venereal disease, or a combination of the two.
The POD then, is that Charles of Aquitaine does not die. He marries Mary of Burgundy, and they have heirs.
The mechanics of the POD itself is not overly important. Either Charles never has his mistress Colette de Chambres, who he likely got his venereal disease from, or he never catches tuberculosis, or some other combination.
The important thing is that Charles of Aquitaine lives long enough for him to have children with Mary of Burgundy. Charles and Mary's male heirs then become the next most senior Valois branch, after the children of Louis XI.
TIMELINE OF INHERITANCE
1472: Charles, Duke of Aquitaine, the second son of Charles VII of France, does not die on May 24, 1472 at age 25.
1473: Charles and Mary of Burgundy are married. Mary is 15 and Charles 26.
1474 - 1477: Charles I, the Bold, of Burgundy still gets himself involved in the same series of events that leads to his death. He dies fighting the Swiss and the Lorrainers, leaving Burgundy to his only heir, Mary and her husband, Charles, Duke of Aquitaine.
1476: December - Mary gives birth to her first child, a son named Philip. He will be the couple’s only surviving son.
1477: January 5 - Charles the Bold dies at Nancy. His daughter is proclaimed duchess, and she begins co-rule with her husband Charles, Duke of Aquitaine. They rule as Mary I and Charles II.
The beginning of their rule is troubled by rebellions in the low countries, against the centralizing program of Charles the Bold, and with conflicts with Charles’ brother Louis XI of France. Louis moves to seize Burgundian lands in France, on the basis that the male line is extinct and they revert to the crown. Warfare erupts between Louis XI and his brother Charles.
1478: Peace is made between the two brothers. Charles II of Burgundy gives up the Duchy of Aquitaine as appanage in exchange for recognition of his rule in Burgundy, again as appanage.
By this agreement, Louis XI reclaims Charles’ former appanage to the crown, while Charles retains his father-in-law’s prior holdings, mostly intact.
1479: Mary of Burgundy gives birth to Margaret, their oldest surviving daughter.
1481: Mary of Burgundy gives birth to Isabella, their second oldest surviving daughter.
1483: Charles II, Duke of Burgundy (jure uxoris) dies in February, predeceasing his older brother Louis XI of France. His wife Mary will rule for an additional 37 years.
Mary gives birth to a posthumous daughter, named Marie/Mary (named after Marie of Anjou).
Louis XI of France dies in July. He is succeeded by his son Charles VIII of France.
1484: Mary, aged 27, remarries to Maximillian of Hapsburg, aged 25. The match soon develops into a love-match.
The politics for the remarriage are the same as OTL. The Hapsburgs wish to secure the western frontiers of the Empire, and Mary needs continued protection from Charles VIII, King of France.
Under Mary and Maximillian, the Burgundian state becomes actively involved in anti-french alliance building, as OTL.
1485: Mary gives birth to Frederick, her only son by Maximillian. The couple will have no other surviving children, but Frederick lives until adulthood.
Events in England still play out similar to OTL, with Henry Tudor defeating Richards III, becoming Henry VII of England and marrying Elizabeth of York. The couple also, in a similar situation to OTL, have two sons: Arthur and Henry, Duke of York.
1491: Charles VIII of France marries an ALT version of Anne of Brittany, the only heiress to Brittany.
1496: Mary’s eldest son (the Valois one) is engaged and then marries a Spanish infanta – an ALT version of Joanna, as part of anti-French alliance building of the Trastamara and Hapsburgs and Burgundians. Despite some discussion of her marrying Frederick, Mary insists the Spanish match go to her son Philip, who is set to inherit the Burgundian lands (her son Frederick is set to inherit the Hapsburg lands). As the anti-french alliance is more important to the Burgundians, so is the Spanish match.
1497: Mary’s daughter Margaret marries the Spanish male heir, an ALT version of John, Prince of Asturias. They still die childless, and John dies without inheriting the thrones of Castile and Aragon.
1498: Isabella of Castile gives birth to an ALT Miguel da Paz. She does not long survive the birth of her son.
1500: Philip of Burgundy and ALT Joanna have their first son, named Charles (my apologies for the proliferation of Charles…).
1501: Arthur, prince of Wales, marries a Spanish Infanta, ALT Catherine of Aragon.
1503: Arthur and ALT Catherine have their oldest surviving daughter, named Mary.
1504: Isabella, queen of Castile, dies. The throne of Castile passes to her grandson, Miguel, son of the King of Portugal and Isabella of Castile. He is six years old.
1506: ALT Catherine and Arthur, prince of Wales, have their only son to reach adulthood, named Henry.
1510: Henry VII of England dies. He is succeeded by his son Arthur I of England.
1512: Miguel, King of Castile, dies at age 14. The throne of Castile passes to his aunt, ALT Joanna and Phillip of Burgundy.
1513: Philip of Burgundy and ALT Joanna move to Castile
1514: Anne of Brittany, Queen of France, dies, having suffered many pregnancies and only producing one surviving daughter to her husband, Charles VIII.
1515: Charles VIII remarries, in an effort to obtain a son. In an effort to secure relations with the English, he marries a Tudor princess (daughter of Henry VII).
1516: Charles VIII’s first son, Louis, is born.
Ferdinand II of Aragon dies. The throne of Aragon passes to his daughter ALT Joanna and her husband, Philip of Burgundy.
1518: Charles VIII’s second son, Charles, is born.
1519: Maximillian, Holy Roman emperor, dies. His wife outlives him by one year.
The couple’s only son, Frederick of Hapsburg, elected King of the Romans and then Holy Roman Emperor as Frederick IV at age 34.
Charles VIII of France dies. He is succeeded by his infant son Louis XII with his mother acting as regent.
1520: Princess Mary of England marries Mary of Burgundy’s son, Charles of Valois-Burgundy.
Mary, Duchess of Burgundy, dies. Her son Philip becomes Philip IV of Burgundy.
1521: Philip IV of Burgundy returns from Spain to secure his inheritance, nervous of his half-brother Ferdinand. Despite some tension, he inherits his mother’s lands. He reconnects with his son Charles, who he has not seen in almost a decade.
1522: Henry, Duke of York, dies in a jousting accident. The only surviving male Tudors are Arthur I and his son Henry, prince of Wales. He leaves only daughters.
Philip IV of Burgundy catches sick and dies. He is succeeded in Burgundy by his son Charles, who becomes Charles III. His wife, princess Mary of England, becomes duchess of Burgundy.
1526: Louis XII of France, aged only 9, dies. He is succeeded by his younger brother, Charles IX of France.
1530: Henry, prince of Wales, dies of a disease. He leaves behind one daughter, named Catherine, aged two years old. Under Catherine’s influence, Arthur begins setting the stage for young Catherine to inherit the throne.
1535: Catherine of Aragon, Queen of England, dies aged 50.
1536: Catherine, princess of Wales, dies.
1537: Arthur I of England dies, allegedly of grief over the death of his wife and his son Henry, and his granddaughter. The throne passes to his oldest surviving daughter, Mary, who is married to Charles of Burgundy, and their heirs.
1540: Charles IX of France dies as a result of a jousting match, celebrating the birth of his son. His son is crowned as Charles X, but does not survive to live past 1 years old.
1541: Charles X dies as a baby. The throne passes to the next agnatic male heir, Charles III of Burgundy.
Charles III of Burgundy inherits France as Charles XI.
State of Affairs in 1541: Charles III of Burgundy half-uncle is the holy Roman emperor, Frederick IV.
Charles III of Burgundy is, through his wife, jure uxoris, King Charles I of England. His wife, Mary, rules England.
Charles III of Burgundy is now Charles XI of France.
Charles III’s mother, Joanna, is queen of Castile and Aragon.
With Spain, France, England and Burgundy dynastically aligned, the Italian wars are eventually brought to a close by the conquest of Genoa, Milan, and Naples by the Valois. Charles III’ half brother Frederick is in-turn bought off by a treaty granting most of Venice’s Italian lands to him.
1544: Frederick IV, Holy Roman Emperor, dies. The Hapsburg lands are divided between his four sons, all of whom bear the title archduke of Austria. Austria goes to the eldest, Styria and Carinthia to second eldest, and Tyrol and further Austria to third eldest, and Italian lands to fourth son.
1551: Mary I of England dies, passing the throne of England to her son Philip.
1553: ALT Joanna dies. The throne of Castile and Aragon passes to her son Charles XI of France and III of Burgundy.
1558: Charles XI of France, I of Spain and III of Burgundy dies, passing the thrones Spain, France and Burgundy to his son Philip, King of England.
Philip is now King of England, France, Spain, Naples and Sicily, Duke of Burgundy and the low countries, Duke of Milan (and Genoa), and ruler of the Spanish colonial Empire. Philip is now Philip I of England, Philip VII of France, Philip IV of Burgundy, and Philip II of Spain.
SUMMARY of ALT MONARCHS since POD
Kings of England
- Edward IV (House of York). Died 1483. Succeeded by his son, Edward.
- Edward V (House of York). The prince in the tower. Reigned briefly in 1483. Usurped by his uncle Richard.
- Richard III (House of York). Reigned 1483 - 1485. Usurped and killed by his Lancastrian rival, Henry Tudor.
- Henry VII (house of Tudor): reigned 1485 - 1510. He is succeeded by his son Arthur.
- Arthur I (house of Tudor): reigned 1510 - 1537. He is succeeded by his daughter Mary.
- Mary I (house of Tudor), ruling with Charles I (house of Valois-Burgundy): reigned 1537 - 1551. She is succeeded by her son Philip.
- Philip I of England (house of Valois-Burgundy)
- Louis XI of France (mainline Valois): died 1483. He is succeeded by his son Charles.
- Charles VIII of France (mainline Valois): reigned 1483 - 1519. He is succeeded by his son Louis.
- Louis XII of France (mainline Valois): reigned 1519 - 1526. He is succeeded by his brother Charles.
- Charles IX of France (mainline Valois): reigned 1526 - 1540. He is succeeded by his infant son Charles.
- Charles X (mainline Valois): reigned 1540 - 1541. He is succeed by his second cousin, once removed, Charles III of Burgundy.
- Charles XI (House of Valois-Burgundy): reigned 1541 - 1558. he is succeeded by his son, Philip.
- Philip VII (House of Valois-Burgundy)
- Charles the Bold: died 1477
- Mary I of Burgundy: reigned 1477 - 1520. She does not die getting thrown from a horse. She shares the title of Duke of Burgundy with her two husbands: Charles II of Valois (reigned 1477 - 1483) and with her second husband, Maximillian Archduke of Austria (1484 to 1519). She is succeeded by her first son, Philip.
- Philip IV (house of Valois Burgundy): reigned 1520 - 1522. He is succeeded by his son Charles.
- Charles III (house of Valois Burgundy): reigned 1522 - 1558. He is succeeded by his son Philip.
- Philip V (house of Valois Burgundy)
- Isabella of Castile (house of Trastamara): dies 1504. She is succeeded by her grandson, Miguel.
- Miguel of Castile (house of Aviz-Trastamara): reigns 1504 - 1512. He is succeeded by his aunt, Joanna.
- Ferdinand II of Aragon (house of Trastamara). Died 1516. He is succeeded by his daughter Joanna.
- Joanna (house of Trastamara): reigned in Castile 1512 - 1553; and reigned in Aragon 1516 - 1553. She reigns with her husband Philip I of Castile (House of Valois-Burgundy) until his death in 1522. She is succeeded by her son Charles.
- Charles I (house of Valois Burgundy): reigns 1553 - 1558.
- Philip II (house of Valois Burgundy)
- Maximillian (also by marriage duke of Burgundy): died 1519
- Frederick IV: reigned 1519 - 1544. He divides the Hapsburg lands between his four sons, each still bearing title of Archduke
- four sons - separate inheritances, but each has title Archduke - Charles, Maximillian, Rudolf, and Frederick
QUESTIONS
Now, the above timeline is mostly a rough idea of inheritance. It does not really encompass any of the religious developments and other political realities.
So here are some questions I have:
- How would you imagine the beginnings of the reformation to play out? I don't think its beginnings will at all be butterflied away, and the above timeline assumes a bit of inertia to births and deaths before things really go off the rails. However, the timeline provides that the likely Holy Roman Emperor is dutch-german son of Maximillian, who will likely have spent most of his time with his father on the assumption that his older half-brother would inherit the Burgundian lands. The Holy Roman Emperor at the time of Martin Luther would thus be German speaking, and more focused on Germany as a whole. How would you imagine such a Hapsburg emperor, deprived of Spanish and Dutch resources, handle the early reformation?
- The timeline above assumes the Italian wars still kick off mostly on time. Charles VIII still inherits France, and he still has his claim to Naples. How would a longer lived Charles VIII handle further wars in Italy (the above timeline has Charles VIII avoid hitting his head on a door and dying)?
- By 1541, it would be fairly clear that absent some act of God, all of western Europe, save Portugal and Scotland, would eventually fall into the hands of one man. More to the point, the primary conflict in Italy would still likely have been mostly been between France and Spain, with the HRE also intervening. But by 1541, France, Spain and England are going to be near-dynastically united. The Italian claims are thus also united in one man, first ATL Charles and then his son Philip. How does the Papacy react to such domination of the peninsula? How would various Italian thinkers react? How would the Hapsburgs (who here, would be first cousins to Charles III of Burgundy/XI of France) react?. The above timeline assumes a likely partition of most of Italy between them, but I'm not sure.
- Would future successors of Charles and Philip, in trying to rule their Empire, try to rule from a single capital, or would they peripatetic, and move between the various capitals?
- During the period when Burgundian lands remain separate from France, how far would the Dukes Mary (and her husbands Charles and Maximillian), then her son Philip, and then her son Charles, go in trying to administratively separate it from France and the HRE? Charles and Philip, on their inheritance of France, would likely both be more separately Dutch and English in their sympathies. Would the separation, administratively of the low countries and Burgundy, stick after the union with France? Or would the Burgundian lands be incorporated into France.
- After the death of ALT Frederick IV, would Charles try to make a go for the Imperial Crown and get himself elected emperor? He would have a lot of money for bribes, but would that be enough?
- None of the initial monarchs of the union, after Joanna, would be very Spanish by sympathy. How would they treat the Spanish colonies? Would other member states of the Empire, such as England, France, or the low countries, get the right to settle or trade with the American empire?
- What would be the long-term impacts on political theory with the long term dynastic success of such a union?
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