WI: The Spanish didn't conquer the Inca Empire? How things would evolve to the Inca?

[I_am_Unk]

A while ago, I made a thread about a more dominant Portugal in the Iberian Peninsula. The details of the discussion don't matter much, but it eventually boggled down to the Inca not being conquered by Spain (or any colonial power, such as France or Portugal, for that matter). I didn't give that much thought about the idea at the time since the post was more about Portugal, but I have since grown curious to what would have happened to the Inca.
However, let's not mix the two scenarios together. Imagine just a timeline where the Spanish just don't manage to conquer the Inca when they did in our timeline. An user commented on the thread their opinion that perhaps the Inca would end up not being conquered at all, be it at a later date or not, so let's assume that this is true to TTL as a starting point (though, I'd also welcome discussion about them being conquered later down in history).

Here's a few topics to kickstart the discussion:
1- How does this affect the Spanish Empire as a whole? If I remember correctly, the silver mines in the lands that the Inca hold were extremely valuable to the Spanish, perhaps even vital for their empire to last as long as it did.
2- How does this affect the Inca Empire itself? Naturally, it lasts for longer, but just how long? Is it eventually going to fracture under various ethnic groups? If so, how does Spain and Portugal react to this? (This might be one of the most important topics)
3- Since Spain doesn't hold the territories of the Inca Empire, how does that affect the colonization of Argentina?
4- How is Colonial Brazil affected by this? (If affected at all)

(Image taken from "History of South America : Every Year" by Paulista, on YouTube)

 

[Coluber]

From what I've read, one of the reasons the Portuguese tried to take lands in modern Uruguai was due to that Peruvian trade. I see them being more sucessful in this scenario, as the Spanish aren't as present as in OTL. Argentina might be claimed by the Dutch, French or English, as I've heard from an Argentinian that hates Brasil that Argentina has better weather. Which means that the Portuguese won't have to fight so hard to keep Brasil. I guess.

 

[I_am_Unk]

From what I've read, one of the reasons the Portuguese tried to take lands in modern Uruguai was due to that Peruvian trade. I see them being more sucessful in this scenario, as the Spanish aren't as present as in OTL. Argentina might be claimed by the Dutch, French or English, as I've heard from an Argentinian that hates Brasil that Argentina has better weather. Which means that the Portuguese won't have to fight so hard to keep Brasil. I guess.

Not gonna lie, you confused me a bit at the end. I don't see much correlation between a more successful Colony of Sacramento and the Portuguese keeping Brazil. Did you meant that Portuguese Brazil might had a better time maintaining territories on the La Plata River?
I could see other colonial powers taking the region, though, much like you said. I do wonder who has the best chance. Perhaps Britain or the Dutch? They have a better chance against the Spanish Armada. I don't see France achieving much, since they had already tried something similiar in OTL in Brazil and were promptly expelled by the Portuguese at two different occasions.

 

[Codae]

Not gonna lie, you confused me a bit at the end. I don't see much correlation between a more successful Colony of Sacramento and the Portuguese keeping Brazil. Did you meant that Portuguese Brazil might had a better time maintaining territories on the La Plata River?
I could see other colonial powers taking the region, though, much like you said. I do wonder who has the best chance. Perhaps Britain or the Dutch? They have a better chance against the Spanish Armada. I don't see France achieving much, since they had already tried something similiar in OTL in Brazil and were promptly expelled by the Portuguese at two different occasions.

If the Netherlands (or France, for that matter) is settling otherwise unclaimed lands by the Río de la Plata, the resources devoted to that endeavor aren't available to conquer Brazil (as happened, partially, during the Iberian Union).

But I don't think that's the most likely opportunity. If the Spanish fail to conquer Peru from the west, I think it's more probable for them to push into Argentina, colonizing it on an earlier schedule than OTL's, in an easier-said-than-done attempt to take over from the east.

 

[Hydra1234]

1- How does this affect the Spanish Empire as a whole? If I remember correctly, the silver mines in the lands that the Inca hold were extremely valuable to the Spanish, perhaps even vital for their empire to last as long as it did.

I would argue that the influx of silver actually weakened the Spanish Empire, since they had no conception of inflation and ran their economy into the ground as a result (also, I suspect that the plundered New World wealth resulted in Spain being more eager to fight wars in the late 16th and early 17th century since they thought they had a permanent source of free money with which to fund continental wars). Also, emigration severely drained the metropole too, with the population of Spain proper actually declining during this time period (not helped by the expulsions either).

If Spain could consolidate in their still lucrative holdings in the rest of the Americas, they would have a solid base from which to fund their metropole without overextending themselves.

Another thing to consider is that the bullion trade from Cerro Rico proved critical to the development of many European commercial innovations, like the joint-stock company, since so much trade was flowing in that merchants need new mechanisms to handle the risk and the profit of intercontinental trade. It's possible that without Cerro Rico, these innovations are slightly delayed, but the triangular trade, Mexican silver production, and the inevitable filtering of Incan gold to European hands still results in these commercial innovations.

2- How does this affect the Inca Empire itself? Naturally, it lasts for longer, but just how long? Is it eventually going to fracture under various ethnic groups? If so, how does Spain and Portugal react to this? (This might be one of the most important topics)

I would say it could easily last as a sovereign state until the 18th or 19th century a la India, Oman, or Vietnam, with a decent chance of retaining independence to the present. The thing about the Spanish conquest was that so much of it depended on chance. The Incas had waged external wars for a century, then devolved into costly civil war that was about to end when Pizarro arrived. Sure, their technology was inferior, but power projection meant that Europe forced of this era numbered in the low hundreds that had to march through and hold mountainous terrain. Plus, the Inca are an organized society with access to substantial gold. They can easily trade their mineral wealth for gunpowder and steel, while they find ways to indigenously manufacture European technologies. Plus, the non-disease part of the Columbian Exchange would result in massively improved agricultural yields, providing significant stability and allowing the Inca to create a specialized urban class that is more amenable to change and adopting foreign technologies.

If the Inca play their cards right, by the time the Europeans can support forces numbering in the thousands or tens of thousands thousands of miles from their capital, they could have modernized enough to successfully resist colonization. Also, if the Inca expand far enough south, they get a second windfall with Chilean saltpeter in the 19th and 20th centuries.

Spain and Portugal would probably see the empire as a rival and maybe attempt more organized efforts to conquer it, but again, issues with power projection hamper conquest. Also, the longer the Inca survives, the more chances it has to find allies (or overlords) like the British or the French to counterbalance Iberian interest in the nation.

3- Since Spain doesn't hold the territories of the Inca Empire, how does that affect the colonization of Argentina?

There might be more interest if the Spanish decide to try to find out where the Inca are getting their precious metals from and discover their own sources in the Andes, but I don't know enough to comment on either colonial Argentina or Brazil.

 

[I_am_Unk]

If the Netherlands (or France, for that matter) is settling otherwise unclaimed lands by the Río de la Plata, the resources devoted to that endeavor aren't available to conquer Brazil (as happened, partially, during the Iberian Union).

But I don't think that's the most likely opportunity. If the Spanish fail to conquer Peru from the west, I think it's more probable for them to push into Argentina, colonizing it on an earlier schedule than OTL's, in an easier-said-than-done attempt to take over from the east.

So, Argentina may have a greater population than in OTL? Perhaps this pushes them just the right way to be more of a competition to an independent Brazil? I don't know much about the migration of Spanish people to the Americas, but it does sound like a great difference if some of them go to Argentina or Colombia instead.
Brazil may not be getting it's southern-most territories (Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina or even Paraná), for example, as the areas may be more populated and much more defended against Portuguese expansion.

I would argue that the influx of silver actually weakened the Spanish Empire, since they had no conception of inflation and ran their economy into the ground as a result (also, I suspect that the plundered New World wealth resulted in Spain being more eager to fight wars in the late 16th and early 17th century since they thought they had a permanent source of free money with which to fund continental wars). Also, emigration severely drained the metropole too, with the population of Spain proper actually declining during this time period (not helped by the expulsions either).

If Spain could consolidate in their still lucrative holdings in the rest of the Americas, they would have a solid base from which to fund their metropole without overextending themselves.

Oh! That's interesting. I've never heard this perspective before, but it does make sense. At that time in the map shown in the first post, the Spanish already had conquered Mexico, so it's safe to say they aren't completely without wealth, just lacking in what they had in comparison in OTL.
Come to think of it, they might even feel a bit robbed, since Portugal would eventually go to discover gold in Southeastern Brazil while they'd have to content themselves with trading for metals.

Plus, the non-disease part of the Columbian Exchange would result in massively improved agricultural yields, providing significant stability and allowing the Inca to create a specialized urban class that is more amenable to change and adopting foreign technologies.

This part I think it's a bit important to put into consideration. You said the Empire might have a good chance of surviving until the 18th-19th century, but wouldn't the diseases brought by contact with the Europeans demolish quite a bit of the Inca population? That would certainly result in a lot of instability and even pull a bit of a break in progress, no?

Spain and Portugal would probably see the empire as a rival and maybe attempt more organized efforts to conquer it, but again, issues with power projection hamper conquest. Also, the longer the Inca survives, the more chances it has to find allies (or overlords) like the British or the French to counterbalance Iberian interest in the nation.

I'm actually not so sure about Portugal. They aren't much of a power in terms of population, plus the core of Colonial Brazil is very far away from the Incas, in the coast of the other side of the continent.
I could see it, perhaps, that the Portuguese might have more friendly relations with the Inca in comparison to Spain, who most likely still wants to conquer the Inca Empire. I just can't see the benefits the Portuguese might have by making an enemy of the Incas. In fact, by doing so they lose quite an ally against Spain in the continent for virtually no good reason.

 

[Taunay]

It would make no sense for Spain to colonize Argentina, it only exists due to the conquest of the Inca Empire. Prior to that, there was zero interest in the Rio de la Plata. Now to the questions:

1- How does this affect the Spanish Empire as a whole? If I remember correctly, the silver mines in the lands that the Inca hold were extremely valuable to the Spanish, perhaps even vital for their empire to last as long as it di

I disagree with assertions that the silver was somehow bad. Yes it led Spain into wars, but some of these wars (specially the Habsburg wars against France) would happen REGARDLESS of whether Spain conquered the Inca or not. The view that Spain somehow avoids wars by not conquering the Inca is wrong, since it assumes that all people involved in the decision-making process are 100% rational and not driven by concepts of glory and supremacy. Also, France is an independent agent. If it sees a stronger Spain, it will attack it to prevent a Habsburg domination over Europe. If it sees a weaker Spain, it sees a greater opportunity to weaken the Habsburgs.

2- How does this affect the Inca Empire itself? Naturally, it lasts for longer, but just how long? Is it eventually going to fracture under various ethnic groups? If so, how does Spain and Portugal react to this? (This might be one of the most important topics)

I think the Empire could hold itself together. It had many issues, but once the civil wars are over, reforms could be implemented to modernize the Empire due to its contact with Europe, and it will definitely trade with Europeans (specially Portugal) for weapons and metal.

3- Since Spain doesn't hold the territories of the Inca Empire, how does that affect the colonization of Argentina?

Argentina becomes a part of the Portuguese Empire. Basically almost the entirety of the eastern part of South America becomes a Portuguese colony. Without the Inca, the Spanish would not even bother trying to explore the Rio de la Plata, and if the Inca become fierce enemies of the Spanish, an Incan-Portuguese alliance could definitely drive Spain out of most of South America.

4- How is Colonial Brazil affected by this? (If affected at all)

This is one of the best scenarios for Brazil. It will be able to control everything from Minas Gerais (which is rich in gold) to Patagonia (passing through the perfect agricultural lands of the Pampas). It would definitely become the superpower or at least an extremely influential country in this ATL.

 

[Silver01]

It would make no sense for Spain to colonize Argentina, it only exists due to the conquest of the Inca Empire. Prior to that, there was zero interest in the Rio de la Plata. Now to the questions:

As early as 1528 the Spanish had explored the region and there were settlement as the Spanish empire had not even completed the conquest in 1534 buenos aires still likely gets built as Spanish exploration tries to find the southern passage

 

[James Ricker]

Old Word diseases would ravage the Incan population, leading to an economic and societal collapse

 

[Taunay]

As early as 1528 the Spanish had explored the region and there were settlement as the Spanish empire had not even completed the conquest in 1534 buenos aires still likely gets built as Spanish exploration tries to find the southern passage

The Portuguese had also explored the region in the 1530s, so with a weaker Spanish presence in South America, I see no reason as to why Argentina is somehow destined to become Spanish-speaking.

 

[Hydra1234]

This part I think it's a bit important to put into consideration. You said the Empire might have a good chance of surviving until the 18th-19th century, but wouldn't the diseases brought by contact with the Europeans demolish quite a bit of the Inca population? That would certainly result in a lot of instability and even pull a bit of a break in progress, no?

I would hazard 25%-50%, or about the death rate of the Black Death from what we know of virgin soil smallpox epidemics. The 90% death rate was only in Mexico and has to consider the fact that central authority had collapsed and the Spanish had not yet asserted themselves, a ton of minor wars fought to assert further control over Mexico, and the brutality of the encomienda system.

Obviously it's going to hurt the Inca, but most European states survived the Black Death and even implemented reforms that benefited them long term due to the labor shortage. The Columbian Exchange is going also help the population recovery, again by increasing agricultural productivity.

Oh! That's interesting. I've never heard this perspective before, but it does make sense. At that time in the map shown in the first post, the Spanish already had conquered Mexico, so it's safe to say they aren't completely without wealth, just lacking in what they had in comparison in OTL.
Come to think of it, they might even feel a bit robbed, since Portugal would eventually go to discover gold in Southeastern Brazil while they'd have to content themselves with trading for metals.

I mentioned this in my first post, but Mexico also has silver in Zacatecas.

I'm actually not so sure about Portugal. They aren't much of a power in terms of population, plus the core of Colonial Brazil is very far away from the Incas, in the coast of the other side of the continent.
I could see it, perhaps, that the Portuguese might have more friendly relations with the Inca in comparison to Spain, who most likely still wants to conquer the Inca Empire. I just can't see the benefits the Portuguese might have by making an enemy of the Incas. In fact, by doing so they lose quite an ally against Spain in the continent for virtually no good reason.

True. I was more thinking 16th century Portugal that was still aligned with Spain, not the 17th century Portugal that asserted its independence.

I disagree with assertions that the silver was somehow bad. Yes it led Spain into wars, but some of these wars (specially the Habsburg wars against France) would happen REGARDLESS of whether Spain conquered the Inca or not. The view that Spain somehow avoids wars by not conquering the Inca is wrong, since it assumes that all people involved in the decision-making process are 100% rational and not driven by concepts of glory and supremacy. Also, France is an independent agent. If it sees a stronger Spain, it will attack it to prevent a Habsburg domination over Europe. If it sees a weaker Spain, it sees a greater opportunity to weaken the Habsburgs.

I never said that Spain would avoid all wars either, but even a couple would save huge sums. The entire ransom for Atahualpa paid for a single expedition to Tunis, for instance. Moreover, no massive silver reserves to fall back on would incentivize reform and centralization when these wars cause financial difficulty.

Argentina becomes a part of the Portuguese Empire. Basically almost the entirety of the eastern part of South America becomes a Portuguese colony. Without the Inca, the Spanish would not even bother trying to explore the Rio de la Plata, and if the Inca become fierce enemies of the Spanish, an Incan-Portuguese alliance could definitely drive Spain out of most of South America.

Spanish exploration in Argentina predate the conquest of the Inca. Cabot discovering that the natives possessed silver (hence Rio de la Plata) is an extremely strong incentive to discover the mythical "Sierra de la Plata" regardless of the Incas or not. Also, until Portugal outright break away from Spain, they're still bound by Tordesillas, given Spain a century's head-start on colonization.

 

[holycookie]

Here's a few topics to kickstart the discussion:
1- How does this affect the Spanish Empire as a whole?

well they have a lot less money to spend on their wars which means that powers like France will do better in Europe. Economically, Spain itself will have a healthier economy in the long term. But this comes at the cost of a smaller and less influential empire.

2- How does this affect the Inca Empire itself? Naturally, it lasts for longer, but just how long?

This depends on so many variables that it's not even funny. How many will die of disease, what will be the government's response, how stable is an Inca empire that does not expand, how loyal are the great houses, what are the choices of its elites and emperor? How many enemies does the Inca empire have internally and externally? What will be their relationship with the Europeans, etc.

3- Since Spain doesn't hold the territories of the Inca Empire, how does that affect the colonization of Argentina?

They probably do not colonize the region. The advantages are few and the demands are many. It would be easier to simply start using the Caribbean islands and their potential for producing things like sugar (instead of simply using them as forts to protect silver as Spain did).

4- How is Colonial Brazil affected by this? (If affected at all)

You will continue to have the advancement of the Bandeirantes towards the Plata Basin when in the OTL they were stopped in the OTL by an alliance of natives, Jesuits, and Spain. In addition to this, you will have Portuguese trading posts at the entrance to the Prata basin blocking the entry of other European powers. Of course, this conjecture assumes that Portugal is the power that establishes its control in Brazil.

As early as 1528 the Spanish had explored the region and there were settlement as the Spanish empire

Just like France in Brazil, this alone is not enough.

 

[holycookie]

The 90% death rate was only in Mexico

Hey? Where did you get that only Mexico had a 90% mortality rate? In the Caribbean, most islands suffer a rate of approximately 90% death rate. Central America you have discussions between the exact value and the numbers ranging from 60% to 90%. The Andean region had a lower rate compared to other places with numbers ranging from 50% to 80%. This discussion of the mortality rate occurs precisely because of the difficulty of having an exact rate that is directly related to the disease.

Also, until Portugal outright break away from Spain, they're still bound by Tordesillas, given Spain a century's head-start on colonization.

This is very wrong, first because it presumes a severe agreement when in otl it was not like that. In the same way that Spain had the Philippines and islands in Asia to trade with China, something that broke the agreement, Portugal wanted the La Plata region. So the agreement was an idea of spheres of influence that was broken depending on how much a country wanted something. In this case, Portugal wanted la plata and Spain wanted direct access to the Chinese market. The Portuguese advance on the plata is old in the same way that the Spanish advance on the Chinese commercial access was old. Imagine as a gray area of the contract

 

[I_am_Unk]

I disagree with assertions that the silver was somehow bad. Yes it led Spain into wars, but some of these wars (specially the Habsburg wars against France) would happen REGARDLESS of whether Spain conquered the Inca or not. The view that Spain somehow avoids wars by not conquering the Inca is wrong, since it assumes that all people involved in the decision-making process are 100% rational and not driven by concepts of glory and supremacy. Also, France is an independent agent. If it sees a stronger Spain, it will attack it to prevent a Habsburg domination over Europe. If it sees a weaker Spain, it sees a greater opportunity to weaken the Habsburgs.

Hmm... Yes, that it correct! It really does sound quite a bit of a oversimplification to say they'd avoid wars now that you brought that up. Still, how do you think the lack of silver would affect their performance in those European wars?

I would hazard 25%-50%, or about the death rate of the Black Death from what we know of virgin soil smallpox epidemics. The 90% death rate was only in Mexico and has to consider the fact that central authority had collapsed and the Spanish had not yet asserted themselves, a ton of minor wars fought to assert further control over Mexico, and the brutality of the encomienda system.

Obviously it's going to hurt the Inca, but most European states survived the Black Death and even implemented reforms that benefited them long term due to the labor shortage. The Columbian Exchange is going also help the population recovery, again by increasing agricultural productivity.

Oof! Quite a devastation, but I guess it wouldn't necessarily mean the end for their Empire.

I mentioned this in my first post, but Mexico also has silver in Zacatecas.

Ah! Actually, I was specifically talking about the Spanish colonizers in South America.

Spanish exploration in Argentina predate the conquest of the Inca. Cabot discovering that the natives possessed silver (hence Rio de la Plata) is an extremely strong incentive to discover the mythical "Sierra de la Plata" regardless of the Incas or not. Also, until Portugal outright break away from Spain, they're still bound by Tordesillas, given Spain a century's head-start on colonization.

I'm not sure. The La Plata Basin is a great gateway to the silver trade with the Incas, so it might be in Spain's best interest (even without the benefit of hindsight) to eventually secure the region, unless risking giving a great deal of it to the Portuguese, which seems a bit of a disadvantage. After all, the silver mines will always be much closer to Argentina than they'll ever be to Colombia... Though, the Spanish might just straight up trade it with the Incas though the coast, which is where most of the silver got to in OTL, so I don't know. Maybe it's much like @holycookie said above and it would just be simpler and without downsides to trade for the silver via the coast of Peru instead.

You will continue to have the advancement of the Bandeirantes towards the Plata Basin when in the OTL they were stopped in the OTL by an alliance of natives, Jesuits, and Spain. In addition to this, you will have Portuguese trading posts at the entrance to the Prata basin blocking the entry of other European powers. Of course, this conjecture assumes that Portugal is the power that establishes its control in Brazil.

It might as well end up like this. Though, would Portugal be strong enough to actually keep such vast territory? Wouldn't Argentina be a bit more vulnerable OR leave other parts of Portuguese Brazil (perhaps Northern Brazil) more vulnerable to other European powers? I'm talking out of my ass, of course, since I'm just presuming they may be overextending themselves by colonizing Argentina too.

 

[Silver01]

Just like France in Brazil, this alone is not enough.

I dont agree with that given how in the otl portugese dominions were far off from the mouth of the rio de la plata till they did not even get close till 1700 even if we assume things would be sped up given how much time had occured by this point argentina could be already established even with out help from the west the spanish did make settlements like asuncion

(even without the benefit of hindsight)

the portugese already tried to do that in 1526 and the spanish tried something similar a few years after and that is how they founded asuncion so both sides would try to explore the area.

 

[Hydra1234]

Hey? Where did you get that only Mexico had a 90% mortality rate? In the Caribbean, most islands suffer a rate of approximately 90% death rate. Central America you have discussions between the exact value and the numbers ranging from 60% to 90%. The Andean region had a lower rate compared to other places with numbers ranging from 50% to 80%. This discussion of the mortality rate occurs precisely because of the difficulty of having an exact rate that is directly related to the disease.

My bad, I was thinking only between organized empires, namely the Triple Alliance and the Inca.

This is very wrong, first because it presumes a severe agreement when in otl it was not like that. In the same way that Spain had the Philippines and islands in Asia to trade with China, something that broke the agreement, Portugal wanted the La Plata region. So the agreement was an idea of spheres of influence that was broken depending on how much a country wanted something. In this case, Portugal wanted la plata and Spain wanted direct access to the Chinese market. The Portuguese advance on the plata is old in the same way that the Spanish advance on the Chinese commercial access was old. Imagine as a gray area of the contract

Zaragoza was different to Tordesillas in that Spain interpreted the treaty as Charles ceding the rights to the Moluccas and the surrounding islands in exchange for a payment to Portugal, in which Spain could reclaim the rights in exchange for returning the payment to Portugal, with interest. That was why both Charles and then Philip went ahead with colonizing the Philippines; if Portugal called out their fait accompli, then they believed they could just return that payment in exchange for opening up the far more lucrative Chinese market to Spanish silver. If not, well the Spanish got the islands for free and kept their money.

Portugal had no such territorial claim on Argentina or the surrounding area that they ceded, and unlike Portugal with the Philippines (who didn't really care about the islands given the lack of spices there), the Spanish would care due to the aforementioned silver discovered and could contest the claim on a much stronger basis than Portugal with the Philippines.

 

[Taunay]

Also, until Portugal outright break away from Spain, they're still bound by Tordesillas, given Spain a century's head-start on colonization.

Neither Portugal nor Spain ever respected Tordesillas, otherwise half of Brazil would be in Spanish-speaking countries.

Still, how do you think the lack of silver would affect their performance in those European wars?

IF it leads to centralization, they could go either the same as OTL or better. IF the lack of silver doesn't really affect internal politics TOO much, then you have a Habsburg Empire (Spain, Low Countries, HRE) that is defeated or even dismembered by a more powerful France.

might as well end up like this. Though, would Portugal be strong enough to actually keep such vast territory? Wouldn't Argentina be a bit more vulnerable OR leave other parts of Portuguese Brazil (perhaps Northern Brazil) more vulnerable to other European powers? I'm talking out of my ass, of course, since I'm just presuming they may be overextending themselves by colonizing Argentina too.

Portugal did send the most colonists to the New World than any other European nation in the 18th century, so it all depends on whether the Gold Rush still happens to attract Portuguese migrants, and whether the good weather of OTL Buenos Aires attracts further Portuguese migration in the 19th century (when population growth in Portugal accelerates).

I dont agree with that given how in the otl portugese dominions were far off from the mouth of the rio de la plata till they did not even get close till 1700 even if we assume things would be sped up given how much time had occured by this point argentina could be already established.

This assumes that Spain would rather focus on trading silver from the east rather than negotiating directly on the west coast with the Inca Empire. But besides that, while it's true that Colonial Brazil took a long time to get close to the River Plate, this was only due to the presence of Buenos Aires (which was luckily re-founded in 1580, with the city becoming THE main beneficiary of the Iberian Union due to contraband trade with Brazil). If the Spanish fail to conquer the Inca, it's reasonable to assume that the Portuguese court would feel less threatened by Spain and could send a colonizing mission to the Rio de la Plata in the 1530s or 1540s. In fact, they did that IOTL, they sent Martim Afonso de Sousa with the purpose of colonizing the Rio de la Plata and find a way to the Inca Empire.

 

[holycookie]

till they did not even get close till 1700

the first exploration of the plate took place by a Portuguese was by Magalhaes in the 16th century

by this point argentina could be already established even with out help from the west the spanish did make settlements like asuncion

Perhaps, Buenos Aires only survived after 1580, and this depends on the viability of Asuncion. This is the city that allowed the colonization of the Plata basin.

I since I'm just presuming they may be overextending themselves by colonizing Argentina too.

Perhaps, first we will have the dispute between Portugal and Spain, which could lead to war. About overextending I would say no. Control of the coast and the entrance to the basin sort of ensured control of the rest.

Portugal had no such territorial claim on Argentina or the surrounding area that they ceded

Portugal will probably disagree, a war between Spain and Portugal at the beginning of the 16th century would be very interesting,

PS: Not to mention that we have other powers, France in the OTL competed with Portugal for the colonization of Brazil in the 16 century and. Interestingly, they had a good chance of succeeding. Not to mention the Huguenots who tried to colonize Rio de Janeiro. Maybe the Huguenots went further south into the plata Basin?

 

[holycookie]

so it all depends on whether the Gold Rush still happens

This was ridiculous in Brazil, the population multiplied 12 times in less than a century.

with the city becoming THE main beneficiary of the Iberian Union due to contraband trade with Brazil).

I didn't know that, meat trade has always been strong in the pampas. But I didn't know that it had such an influence on the city's survival.

 

[Hydra1234]

Neither Portugal nor Spain ever respected Tordesillas, otherwise half of Brazil would be in Spanish-speaking countries.

See above regarding the case of the Phillippines. Regarding Brazil, there wasn't any meaningful inland presence or any valuable land claimed by Portugal until the gold rush, and evidently both nations cared about Tordesillas and Zaragoza enough to sign the Treaty of Madrid officially nullifying both.

In the two major violations before the nations went separate ways in the 17th century, both cases saw one side not caring much about the claimed territory, which is not the case with a hypothetical massive silver deposit existing upriver of Rio de La Plata.

Portugal will probably disagree, a war between Spain and Portugal at the beginning of the 16th century would be very interesting,

16th or 17th?

I guess depending on if the Iberian Union still exists ITTL, because Spain as the senior partner in the union could easily negotiate a more favorable treaty with their interpretation.