WI the Ottomans never enter the Balkans?
- Thread starter machine3589
- Start date
If the Ottomans don't get into Europe (ignoring the why for the moment) I bet they get destroyed by Timurlane (since they have no refuge in the Balkans as they did OTL), unless the PoD also butterflied events in Central Asia somehow.
Which makes me wonder how likely a Timurid successor dynasty would be to fill the Ottoman's boots, come the collapse of Timur's empire.
fasquardon
Which makes me wonder how likely a Timurid successor dynasty would be to fill the Ottoman's boots, come the collapse of Timur's empire.
fasquardon
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
There was that Ottoman Interregnum that occured after Bayezid was captured by Tamerlane during the Battle of Ankara. If that Interregnum became worse, then the Karamanids would possibly try to prod the Ottoman defenses.
Deleted member 67076
You mean their glorified raids? I mean yeah they went as far as Nicea and they captured a good deal of cities but they lost them exceedingly quickly afterwords. I don't really have much faith in them compared to Candar or Aydin.
Or via a coalition of other Beyliks. The Ottomans were making quite a scene when they took Karesi out, the other beyliks would most certainly ally against them afterwords and probably win without the extra resources of the Balkans or Murad's leadership.
Redhand
Banned
The Timurids were really somewhat lucky as thy capitalized on an utter lack of unity basically everywhere to unleash atrocities that Genghis Khan would've been proud of; there is a reason that they were the last truly successful Nomadic group to descend from Central Asia. They also didnt have the administrative ability or naval power to establish a lasting rule in the Balkans. Honestly, if the Byzantines avoid the civil war of the 1340s they should be fine for quite some time as they had naval superiority that wouldn't diminish anytime soon and would probably be quicker to convert to gunpowder if they kept the Turkic groups out of Europe. The Ottomans would squabble with their neighbors and the Byzantines would gradually regain Balkan territory and build up enough state resources to perhaps take back parts of Anatolia.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
At least the Byzantines won't have to worry about threats from the north as they were protected by other Balkan states.
As for Balkans sans Ottomans, while I know that Bogomilism would eventually become extinct, would Bosnia end up being absorbed by Hungary in this case or would the House of Kotromanic actually try to take more Croatian or Serbian land to create a bigger Bosnian Kingdom that may be leaning towards Catholicism?
As for Balkans sans Ottomans, while I know that Bogomilism would eventually become extinct, would Bosnia end up being absorbed by Hungary in this case or would the House of Kotromanic actually try to take more Croatian or Serbian land to create a bigger Bosnian Kingdom that may be leaning towards Catholicism?
Well, as long as it's not that old since you bumped it...
If Timum wipes out not only Bayezid but his sons and thus the succession, it could lead toa civil war during which Bulgaria might well manage to win its war of independence - which lasted till the 1420s even OTL. If enough turmoil can occur that the Karaminids can come in, such a Bulgaria might be able to consolidate and be the power that helps unite the Balkans.
One impact this would have is that another group might be more amenable to letting Western traders through to the East. Now, if there's a lot of civil strife in the near term, you could even see a different route looked for early. (Constantinople almost fell in 1400 - if it does, [FONT="]weirdly you might see Bayezid overconfident and thus wind up losing to Timur.)
The question is, till the Karaminids consolidate power, is there a country that can build up enough strength to keep the Karaminids honest if they end up taking all of Anatolia by, say, 1450? If so, the Karamanid Empire might not want to push into Europe and might be wiling to let European traders cross into Asia along the Silk Road.
Of course, if as noted France winds up allying with this group against Spain and the Austrians, then you could have the French trying to block Spanish traders which could have the Spanish seeking a Western route to Asia anyway.
If the Karamanids don't hold onto Egypt too strongly, it might be able to be a regional power in that area, which could mean an interesting dynamic between it, the Karamanid Empire, and Persia. If this blocks Karamanids from entering and takign Northern Africa, who gets it? The Egyptians? Perhaps. Or, could Europeans start trying to get land in Northern Africa centuries early? A desire for a military base in the Southern ports of the Mediterranean might cause it to becomea big battleground between Spain and France - maybe not as big as Italy bit bit enough.
[/FONT]
AFAIK the rule is that its not a necro if its within six months of the last post.