In OTL during the September Campaign Hungary took the polish refugees as well as the retreating themselves polish troops, but that's about it. Hungary still needed the alliance with the III Reich to make the revision of Trianon, and for that reason in OTL there was absolutely no way that Hungary will do anything more for Poland. But in TTL? Well, not having suffered any territorial losses which the Germans could reverse, Hungary wouldn't be flirting with Germany and as such, Hungary might enter into an alliance with Poland. But the question remains whether Hungary would be willing to do so. After all, there are no german claims upon Hungary, therefore Hungary might just mind its own business. The only way Hungary might realistically go against Germany I can think of, would be if Hitler decided to support the romanian claims upon Hungary for the sake of creating the good relations with Romanians whom he needs for the future invasion of the Soviet Union.
WI: Territorially intact Hungary post-WW1
- Thread starter Fehérvári
- Start date
Great points! Poland would certainly have no interest in supporting Hungary over Romania in their disputes. Romania would be a valuable ally to Poland against the Soviets, that much is also true. However it's not Hungary would have absolutely nothing to offer to Poland. When the Polish-German trade war broke out, the Poles were desperate to secure new trade ties to offset the damage done by the loss of their MFN status with Germany. Hungary is not particularly rich, but trade between the two countries could appreaciate in perceived value. On top of that, the traditional Polish-Hungarian friendship could atleast secure Hungary a neutral Polish stance on the Romanian issue.
On another note, Czech Russophilia and their designs on Slovakia wouldn't disappear immediately. So even if only in the initial years, opposition to the Czechs could also create some temporary common ground between Hungarians and Poles.
Nazi German dominance of the continent wouldn't be in Hungarian interest either. IOTL, revisionist desires an economic dependency overwrote these interests, but things would be a bit different ITTL, as you wrote. I think the greatest deterring force of Hungarian involvement on the Polish side would be the weakness of the Hungarian army and the fear of Hitler deciding to get the country carved up in retaliation. The question is wether Anglo-French involvement in the war and their promised support would dampen these fears or not?
This isn't really possible. Romania for one was coming in for its pound of flesh: Transylvania. Of course how much of that it could get is debatable, but post-world war one, Hungary is seen as a defeated power. It was going to lose some land.
Of course as for Slovakia, depending on how things go with the Czechoslovak Legion and the recognition the Czecho-slovak delegation got, its possible that Czechia might have gotten independence instead. Had someone other than Clemenceau been in charge of France, you could have possibly kept Hungary more intact, but that doesn't still guarantee its territorial integrity. Instead you might have had a more sympathetic Entente which would have regarded Austria as a fellow historic Great Power, so rather than totally destroying it, the Empire would be kept around in some rump form with something like the Sixtus Affair brokering a separate peace for Austria-Hungary. But in that case I don't see the Empire really dissolving per se. The war
Italy for one would have wanted this as in otl Wilson's proclamation of the 14 was one of the hammer blows that shattered the Empire and it led to multiple states and groups emerging that contested Italy's own territorial claims and aspirations.
1. Czechia is probably forced to be closer to Germany, especially in a no-Habsburg scenario. It also will probably have to give more to the Sudeten Germans, both because Hungary shows peaceful coexistence can be had and because the Germans are at that point a large minority.
2. Germany would probably go for Czechia first, unless the Sudeten Germans are so happy they don't want out. Now that would be an interesting factor...
3. Leaning no, because Hungary doesn't have anything to gain there, unless they also happen to be led by some far-sighted mastermind who correctly understands collective defense as a necessity. At that point I also doubt Hungary would be that weak, as it's got a decent population and economy.
4. Yes, assuming a defensive pact is on, it would be invoked on the case of a German assault unless it's specifically worded not to. Assuming the points in (3) to be true, then Germany would definitely try to bring Romania on board with promises of land, potentially calling in Yugoslavia, potentially bringing in Italy... it's complex and highly dependant on the leaders helming the various countries.
5. A Sweden is impossible, even in its wanked state the country is neither powerful enough nor isolated enough to be worth ignoring. Assuming the Axis camp is the same (and I think chances are, things go differently at least to a degree), then it gets pressured under threat of dissolution much like Yugoslavia, with the same potential fate (if refused, then it gets invaded and partitioned).
6. Not much, the main problem of this Hungary is that while it does have a couple good allies, they come with liabilities; the Yugoslav one is manageable overall, the Polish one far less, but in either case, as soon as one European conflict starts, the chances of Hungary being dragged in the chaos and losing a piece here or there grow dramatically.
The Germans would constitute about 30% of the population of this Czechia. Could they have a strong enough political weight to make the country officially adopt bilingualism? Or is territorial autonomy more likely? Perhaps neither of them are on the table? Czechs would still have a supermajority (~69%) in the population, after all.
Even before Austria?
But yeah, if the Sudeten Germans are largely content with their overall situation or atleast are visibly split over the issue of secession, then that would certainly put a big wrench in the Nazi plans and damage their narrative. I wonder how this would influence the stances taken by the Great Powers (at Munich)? Maybe Germany would invade if the talks fail? Would that mean an early WW2? Or would the Czechs get abandoned (to buy time)? How well could the Czechs do against Germany? I assume Czechia might give up on Zaolzie in such scenario to buy Polish neutrality.
You're right, I think. I was thinking that the ethnic nationalism-fueled policies of Germany would be seen antithetical to the new multiethnic political structure of Hungary, which would make them be perceived as a direct threat to national security. But yeah, the OTL Polish attitude taken during the Sudeten Crisis greatly highlights how shortsighted and/or ignorant country leaders can be in such situations.
To some degree, yes, but the military restrictions of the peace treaty would certainly make itself felt (even if the Hungarians try to cheat it through the years). I guess it would be either the Anschluss or the Sudeten Crisis which would at last trigger the renouncement of the restrictions placed on the country (maybe unilaterally).
Perhaps there could be a clause that ties direct Hungarian involvement to some conditions. What could those conditions be? Anglo-French involvement? Full Polish mobilisation? Poland being able to stop the initial German attack? Polish troops on Hungarian soil? Guaranteed Romanian and/or Yugoslav neutrality? What are some realistic options?
If Hungary does in fact join the war on the Polish side, how could that influence the course of the campaign?
I believe that to be the case as well.
If Yugoslavia gets involved by this point, it would be probably on the German side. Even if they have normal relations with Hungary, going to war without any direct benefits (but with many risks) is probably unlikely on their part. German-allied Yugoslavia however brings into question Italy's stance.
If Hungary stays out of the conflict until that point, then maybe it could join the Tripartite pact and allow German military transit, but maybe it could stay out of both the Yugoslav campaign and also the initial invasion of the Soviet Union. Of course, the pressure to send troops against the Soviets would keep increasing. The country either commits against the Soviets or get invaded by the Axis? How long could the decision be put off though?
With this I agree.
If the Czechs keep the russophile attitude as well as the claims to Slovakia, then yes, Poland will be supportive to Hungary. I can even imagine the situation in which the Poles try to persuade Romania "Forget about Transylvania, the Soviets are our main concern".
Which, combined with the lack of german territorial claims upon Hungary, would ultimately result in the lack of hungarian support for Poland in case of the german attack on Poland. The only realistic motivation for Hungary would be, as I mentioned, if Hitler already in 1930s decided to lay the foundations for the future alliance with Romania against the Soviet Union by promising that he will give Transylvania to Romania. After all, Romania is crucial for its oil, as well as for being more prone than others to fight the Soviets due to directly bordering them.
However, in TTL Hitler may be aware that revealing his intetions too early might antagonize Hungary too early, so he might simply hide his romanian intentions for a while. That way, Hungary believes itself to be safe and stays neutral when Germany annexes Czechia (whom the Hungarians dislike for the czech claims to Slovakia). Then Germany invades Poland, Hungary doesn't help Poland, Poland collapses, and only after Poland's collapse the III Reich attacks Hungary with the intention to give the territorial gifts to Romania.
Unless... the Iron Guard takes power in Romania already in the middle of 1930s. Romanians, still angry about failing to get Transylvania in ww1, might be after all much more nationalist than in OTL, and this could result in the Iron Guard taking power much earlier. This could result in Romanians enthusiastically shouting "We are Germany's brothers against bolshevism, Hitler will reward us with Transylvania!", and this could (to Hitler's irritation) make the Hungarians realise that this might indeed be the case.
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@Fehérvári
Now that I thought more about the Iron Guard factor, I've come to some new conclusions. It could also end up with the situation in which the Poles are those who abandon Hungary.
The relations between the III Reich and Poland were complex. Hitler adored the Poles for defeating the Soviets, and hoped to have Poland on his side in his crusade against bolshevism. Poland hoped to capitalize on it: not by hoping to participate in the invasion of the Soviet Union, but simply by nullifying the german hostility towards Poland. The international situation of Poland from that period was a rough one: in 1925 France signed with Germany the Treaty of Locarno, which could be summarized as "Hey Germany, you can expand eastward if you want, just leave France alone and we're cool". Then in 1933 France, having felt already secured, objected Piłsudski's plan of the preemptive attack on Germany to overthrow Hitler. It became more and more clear that France stops caring about the security of Poland. And just like Hungary, Poland considered the factor of not having the strong military. The reason why in OTL Poland didn't help Czechoslovakia wasn't just about Czechoslovakia's prosoviet stance and Zaolzie dispute, it was also about the fact that it would be very, very likely that France wouldn't help Poland, and so Poland would end up fighting completely alone against the III Reich, a very black scenario Poland wanted to avoid. Poland preferred to keep the illusion of being friendly to Germany, for the sake of not bringing upon herself Hitler's wrath.
And it kinda worked for a while, Hitler became fanatically anti-polish only after Poland objected the demands he threw upon Poland right before ww2. And that's crucial: before Poland finally admitted "I'm not going to cooperate with you, nor am I going to give you anything", Hitler kinda adored Poland. And why is it important? Because in a scenario with Hungary untouched by Trianon and with the Iron Guard taking power in Romania already in the middle of 1930s, Hitler might assume "Poland is my friend, I can focus all of my attention upon the actions against Hungary for the sake of solidifying the good relations with the Iron Guard". And thus, after the german annexation of Czechia the III Reich might postpone the demands upon Poland, and Hungary would be the one who becomes Hitler's next target. In this situation, there is a chance that Poland might just abandon Hungary, due to not feeling strong enough to oppose Hitler.
In the end it all goes down to whether Poland and Hungary feel that the polish-hungarian alliance is strong enough to act even in case of the lack of actions from France and Britain. Poland and Hungary could aid Czechia, but then again, the anti-czech sentiments are the thing which creates the polish-hungarian alliance in the first place. So the combination of anti-czech sentiment and not feeling strong enough could cause Poland and Hungary to do not help Czechia. After that, it's Poland abandoning the Hungarians or Hungary abandoning the Poles.
Now that I thought more about the Iron Guard factor, I've come to some new conclusions. It could also end up with the situation in which the Poles are those who abandon Hungary.
The relations between the III Reich and Poland were complex. Hitler adored the Poles for defeating the Soviets, and hoped to have Poland on his side in his crusade against bolshevism. Poland hoped to capitalize on it: not by hoping to participate in the invasion of the Soviet Union, but simply by nullifying the german hostility towards Poland. The international situation of Poland from that period was a rough one: in 1925 France signed with Germany the Treaty of Locarno, which could be summarized as "Hey Germany, you can expand eastward if you want, just leave France alone and we're cool". Then in 1933 France, having felt already secured, objected Piłsudski's plan of the preemptive attack on Germany to overthrow Hitler. It became more and more clear that France stops caring about the security of Poland. And just like Hungary, Poland considered the factor of not having the strong military. The reason why in OTL Poland didn't help Czechoslovakia wasn't just about Czechoslovakia's prosoviet stance and Zaolzie dispute, it was also about the fact that it would be very, very likely that France wouldn't help Poland, and so Poland would end up fighting completely alone against the III Reich, a very black scenario Poland wanted to avoid. Poland preferred to keep the illusion of being friendly to Germany, for the sake of not bringing upon herself Hitler's wrath.
And it kinda worked for a while, Hitler became fanatically anti-polish only after Poland objected the demands he threw upon Poland right before ww2. And that's crucial: before Poland finally admitted "I'm not going to cooperate with you, nor am I going to give you anything", Hitler kinda adored Poland. And why is it important? Because in a scenario with Hungary untouched by Trianon and with the Iron Guard taking power in Romania already in the middle of 1930s, Hitler might assume "Poland is my friend, I can focus all of my attention upon the actions against Hungary for the sake of solidifying the good relations with the Iron Guard". And thus, after the german annexation of Czechia the III Reich might postpone the demands upon Poland, and Hungary would be the one who becomes Hitler's next target. In this situation, there is a chance that Poland might just abandon Hungary, due to not feeling strong enough to oppose Hitler.
In the end it all goes down to whether Poland and Hungary feel that the polish-hungarian alliance is strong enough to act even in case of the lack of actions from France and Britain. Poland and Hungary could aid Czechia, but then again, the anti-czech sentiments are the thing which creates the polish-hungarian alliance in the first place. So the combination of anti-czech sentiment and not feeling strong enough could cause Poland and Hungary to do not help Czechia. After that, it's Poland abandoning the Hungarians or Hungary abandoning the Poles.
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I think you are going at the issue the wrong way. The easiest way for Hungary to keep Transylvania without being a Mary Sue is to get a CP Romania early on. This shouldn't be too hard as before the war Romania and Italy were already in a defensive alliance with the CP. Also even Woodrow Wilson would have a hard time rewarding a defeated Romania with Transylvania after it already got Bessarabia and Bukovina after the war. The bad blood between the two countries is overstated, the two nations haven't had a war between each other in hundreds of years at this point and the resentment today is more about fighting each other in the two World wars 
Going by this scenario, when do you think Hungary would become Germany's target? The first possible spark following the fall of France would be probably the establishment of a German garrison in Ploiesti, IMO. Hungary IOTL accepted the German request for troop transit through the country, but Hungarian leadership would be less inclined to do so ITTL, probably. Hungary wouldn't rush to join the Tripartite Pact ITTL either. Without Hungary and Romania both in the Axis, Bulgaria might refrain from signing the Tripartite Pact too, which in turn would influence decision-makers in Yugoslavia as well.
If the Ploiesti garrison-issue is solved with a single instance permit or something like that, then what's next? Would Hungary have no choice but to join the Axis alongside Yugoslavia? If so, then what repercussions the likely coup in Belgrade would have? Would Hungary abandon Yugoslavia too, just like Poland? It could probably get away with not participating in the invasion and might also be able to disallow attacks launched from within its territory, but it would become more vulnerable to Germany and its allies than ever before. By that point, fighting might seem inevitable anyway, so it could fight alongside with Yugoslavia. How could the campaign go in that case?
There would be only the Ploiesti garrison in Romania and absolutely no German forces in Bulgaria ITTL. That's a very big change in itself already, adding an enlarged Hungary fighting against Germany into the mix should certainly result in major changes in the course of teh campaign.
What do you think?
(Sorry for not responding to your other points, I found them really interesting and informative, but I think this is the direction I want to steer the conversation.)
In short, in this scenario it would be Romania the one who is supported by Hitler in the transylvanian dispute, not Hungary. In OTL Hungary wanted to get back the lands lost in Trianon, and so Hitler noticed the opportunity to gain the hungarian ally by promising to Hungary the revision of Trianon. At the cost of some countries among which there was Romania, but back then Romania was simply seen as a random country, it hadn't been ruled by the pro-nazi government yet. And by the time Ion Antonescu took power, the Romanians were far more interested in regaining the lands lost to the USSR in 1940. In ITL however, without Trianon there is nothing Hitler can "bribe" Hungary with. And Romania with the pro-nazi government taking power already in the mid 1930s, is seen by Germany as an ideological ally against bolshevism. So once the new romanian government starts throwing the aggressive demands upon Hungary, Hitler would most likely support these romanian demands, because he would see Hungary as someone who wouldn't join him anyway. Therefore, I suppose that after the annexation of Czechia, Hitler would demand upon Hungary to cede the lands to the Romanians who are already seen by him as the allies against the Soviet Union. And not wanting to weaken his ties with Romania, Hitler would firstly want to solidify the romanian issue before asking the Poles to join in the anti-comintern pact.
So... the german attack on Hungary before the attack on Poland - the invasion of Hungary would be the thing that could spark ww2. Unless Hungary supports Czechia in 1938. Both the czechoslovak movement AND Germany support the romanian claims to Transylvania, but out of duo of Czechia and Germany the latter one is much stronger, so Hungary would see the Czechs as "less dangerous supporter of Romania". And with the hungarian eagerness to fight, Poland would fight Germany too. All of that however in an assumption that Romania turns fascist. Without that, Germany won't be supporting the Romanians, and thus it would be far less likely for Hungarians to see the reason in opposing the Germans (who just happen to be removing the czechoslovak danger once and for all).
Personally I think that the best scenario would be if the Iron Guard is influencial within the government of Romania but without full control, and Hitler overestimates the Iron Guard's position. That way, he does announce that he's about to give Transylvania to Romania (much to Hungary's alarm), but Romania won't be responding and will stay neutral. And so when Hungary supports Czechia against Germany, Romania doesn't attack Hungary from the east. Besides, as I mentioned, Hitler thought for a very long time that Poland will join him in his crusade against the Soviet Union. He might keep thinking it while planning his attack on Hungary, and so he might not start any talks with the Soviet Union about any german-soviet partition of Poland. That way, Poland could support Hungary and Czechia without having to be worried about the Soviets, all while neutral Romania guards Poland against the Soviets. Of course only if Poland is discreet and plays neutral until very last moment.
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