WI: Soviet invasion of Europe in summer 1941

Also ATGs are considered a specialized sub-category of artillery.

Indeed and the rumanians had some outdated 37mm short... You confuse AT artillery and field artillery. Completely different.

And? He's not writing for statisticians only, so its in a format that is readable for non-statisticians.

So try to understand his statistics. You deliberately skew them in a funny way...

A huge number of tanks broke down and had to be abandoned, and on average the crew of a T-34 had only basic military training and 72 hours of classroom experience.

Irrelevant here: soviers attack and thus had time to deploy, maintain and fuel the tanks. They also had time to train the crew... You just assume that when they attack they are even as unprepared as when they got attacked by surprise... That's nonsense.

As at the begining they attack they can recover their own broken tanks... and the rumanians can't.

As we said Zhukov and pre-1941 Soviet planning were offensive, not defensive.

You're obvioulsy not aware of the war games that occured in february-june 41 in Moscow... They all planned for a defense in depth...
 

Deleted member 1487

You're obvioulsy not aware of the war games that occured in february-june 41 in Moscow... They all planned for a defense in depth...
Right after the plans were changed with DP41. Everything prior was setup for an offensive, which culminated in Zhukov's May 15th 1941 offensive plan that was rejected by Stalin IOTL and they were then ordered to have a defensive plan, DP41, readied instead.
http://survincity.com/2013/06/on-the-plan-zhukov-on-may-15-1941/
http://www.oocities.org/rf_mikael/glantz3.html

Irrelevant here: soviers attack and thus had time to deploy, maintain and fuel the tanks. They also had time to train the crew... You just assume that when they attack they are even as unprepared as when they got attacked by surprise... That's nonsense.

As at the begining they attack they can recover their own broken tanks... and the rumanians can't.
Assuming the tanks are repairable and the Soviets have the time, spare parts, trained staff, facilities, and recovery vehicles to do so. IOTL they lacked that in sufficient quantity until 1943.
Also Glantz lays out the case that in 1941 the Soviets did not have enough spares, trained crews, logistics, radios, equipment, etc. to pull off an attack.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Indeed and the rumanians had some outdated 37mm short... You confuse AT artillery and field artillery. Completely different.

You mean the PaK 36? Cause that can and did kill T-26 and BT tanks, which would be the majority of the Soviet tank force in 1941.
 

Deleted member 1487

You mean the PaK 36? Cause that can and did kill T-26 and BT tanks, which would be the majority of the Soviet tank force in 1941.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3.7_cm_Pak_36
In June 1941, the Soviet forces consisted of 10,661 T-26, 2,987 T-37/38/40/50s, 59 T-35, 442 T-28, 7,659 BT, 957 T-34, and 530 KV for a combined total of approximately 23,295 tanks. Thus, during the initial phases of Operation Barbarossa, the Pak 36 could still penetrate the armor of the majority of Soviet AFVs at ranges up to 1000m from the front, with the notable exception of the T-28s and T-35s, which it could only penetrate at under 100m. The Pak 36 could not penetrate the armor of the T-34s and KVs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzerjäger_I
and its gun:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4,7cm_KPÚV_vz._36

Or in service since April 1941:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_cm_Pak_38
The Pak 38 was first used by the German forces during the Second World War in April 1941. When the Germans faced Soviet tanks in 1941 during Operation Barbarossa, the Pak 38 was one of the few early guns capable of penetrating the 45 mm (1.8 in) armor of the T-34. The gun was also equipped with Panzergranate 40 APCR shots with a hard tungsten core, in an attempt to penetrate the armor of the heavier KV-1 tank.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7.5_cm_Pak_41
Tapered bore AT gun better than the PAK40 available in 1941.

Or in the case of artillery used as AT guns:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7.5_cm_Pak_97/38
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-tank_warfare#Field_artillery
 
You're funny.

I say that a T34 would roll on them and ou answer with

- "aahhh, they have a par 36". no they don't, they have the old 37mm bofor
- "ahhh but the soviet have many T36". This is not the question, I'm talking about T34.
- "ahhhh but they have the 50mm". No rumanians don't have it...

Thus I repeat myself: they will have a problem with the T34

A more intelligent answer from you would have been to tell me that the romanians had a 47mm. I would have answered that its doctrine was defective (it remained with artillery at the begining) and that they only had 40% of the TO&E

http://www.worldwar2.ro/forum/index.php?showtopic=6517
 

Deleted member 1487

You're funny.

I say that a T34 would roll on them and ou answer with

- "aahhh, they have a par 36". no they don't, they have the old 37mm bofor
- "ahhh but the soviet have many T36". This is not the question, I'm talking about T34.
- "ahhhh but they have the 50mm". No rumanians don't have it...

Thus I repeat myself: they will have a problem with the T34

A more intelligent answer from you would have been to tell me that the romanians had a 47mm. I would have answered that its doctrine was defective (it remained with artillery at the begining) and that they only had 40% of the TO&E

http://www.worldwar2.ro/forum/index.php?showtopic=6517

If they were attacking eventually yes, but on the defensive the T-34 would break down long before it became a problem:
http://chris-intel-corner.blogspot.gr/2012/07/wwii-myths-t-34-best-tank-of-war.html

Plus the solution is the same as IOTL: Stukas, 88mms, shorter range 50mm shots, artillery firing direct, mines, explosive charges (as armor-infantry cooperation was in its infancy in the Soviet doctrine; it was a huge problem in 1939 in Poland and Khalinkin Gol, as well as the winter war and IOTL Barbarossa).
 

Deleted member 1487

Does anyone have the plan that Zhukov proposed for May 15th?
I found this and am not sure if its the same:
http://latvianhistory.com/2011/04/18/stalins-attack-plans-on-germany-1939-1941/
stalins_attack-plan.jpg
 
Does anyone have the plan that Zhukov proposed for May 15th?
I found this and am not sure if its the same:
http://latvianhistory.com/2011/04/18/stalins-attack-plans-on-germany-1939-1941/
stalins_attack-plan.jpg


It is an amazing scope of the planned Soviet attack. Seems a clean copy of the sickle-cut on paper.
What I find strange on this map and the earlier quotes on the offensive operations that soviet weaknesses and logistics did not enter the planning. It was only the question of whether Hitler was going to attack that mattered.
This become even more peculiar when we consider that we are looking at filtered sources. It was Stalin's main blunder to trust Hitler whereas withholding from the offensive because it was best for the red army would make Stalin perceive wise. I am sure that if this (holding back because it was the best military decision) had ever been the reasoning, it would be highlighted in all the history book as Stalin's moment of wisdom.

From the evidence provided, it seems to me that to get the Soviets to attack first, you only need to convince Stalin that Hitler is going to attack. Not that the Red army is ready for it.
Even though he would still prefer a few years to get more ready.
 

Deleted member 1487

It is an amazing scope of the planned Soviet attack. Seems a clean copy of the sickle-cut on paper.
What I find strange on this map and the earlier quotes on the offensive operations that soviet weaknesses and logistics did not enter the planning. It was only the question of whether Hitler was going to attack that mattered.
This become even more peculiar when we consider that we are looking at filtered sources. It was Stalin's main blunder to trust Hitler whereas withholding from the offensive because it was best for the red army would make Stalin perceive wise. I am sure that if this (holding back because it was the best military decision) had ever been the reasoning, it would be highlighted in all the history book as Stalin's moment of wisdom.

From the evidence provided, it seems to me that to get the Soviets to attack first, you only need to convince Stalin that Hitler is going to attack. Not that the Red army is ready for it.
Even though he would still prefer a few years to get more ready.
Right, which is why the Soviets would have doomed themselves on the attack. As much as ON likes to lampoon Wehrmacht logistic planning Zhukov went full Rommel with this plan.

It don't know specifically if the problem was Stalin trusted Hitler, I think it was the combination of factors, including perhaps his own arrogance, that he believed his plan to buy off Hitler for another year had worked and had been afraid that his own subordinates were trying to force him into a war he couldn't win.

I'm also not sure you only need to convince Stalin that Hitler was going to attack, he clearly understood how unready the Soviets were, you'd need to convince him the attack was inevitable early enough AND that the Red Army was capable of a plan like this. Removing the Winter War certainly would help with the latter, not sure what would help with the former, especially with in enough time to preempt the Germans. The May 15th start date would require at least a February authorization and by that point Stalin wasn't sure Hitler was coming, no one really was, that only came in Spring when the build up really began.
 
What I find strange on this map and the earlier quotes on the offensive operations that soviet weaknesses and logistics did not enter the planning. It was only the question of whether Hitler was going to attack that mattered.

Because it wasn't really a plan yet. It was more of a concept. All of those details you mentioned? They were still being worked through. It's disputed whether Stalin really every actually saw it and there is no evidence that Zhukov actually pressed for it's immediate implementation. Even then it was just one of a number of plans that were being drafted at the time for both offensive and defensive scenario. Some were selected for further development and implementation while others were just filed away.

One thing to note about all of these is their incompleteness. They were more concepts then they were plans. All of the niggling details about precisely which units were to do what and how the logistical arrangements were supposed to work were not fully filled out, assuming the Soviets had gotten that far in the first place. This incompleteness stems from a very basic issue plaguing Soviet war planning in '41: the Soviets did not believe war was coming in 1941 and thus were not preparing for a war in 1941. Had they believed so, they would have grabbed one those plans and modified and truncated it to suit their existing forces rather then continuing to develop at the relatively lax pace.

This become even more peculiar when we consider that we are looking at filtered sources. It was Stalin's main blunder to trust Hitler whereas withholding from the offensive because it was best for the red army would make Stalin perceive wise.
Erm, no... it actually indicates quite the opposite. You clearly need to read Stumbling Colossus. Glantz pretty well demolishes the idea that the Soviets perceived their army as being ready for an offensive campaign in 1941 is something he thoroughly demolishes and was one of the major reasons for Stalin's denialism over the imminence of the German attack.

I am sure that if this (holding back because it was the best military decision) had ever been the reasoning, it would be highlighted in all the history book as Stalin's moment of wisdom.
Not necessarily. To start with, Stalin didn't just "hold back", he actively refused to shift Soviet armies into defensive postures, distribute supplies, issue clear rules-of-engagement, or even have them man their fighting positions until after the Germans attacked. He took some precautions, but they were largely half-measures which didn't actually improve the combat capabilities of the forces in the field or put them in a more favorable position to actually fulfill their combat missions. Additionally there is the issue of portrayals: A lot of myths or incorrect perceptions manage to continue to exist because of obscuration in the historical record or simple inertia in the filtering process from professional historians to the public at large. World War 2 provides fertile ground for this: during the Cold War, Western Historians largely bought into the sob story perpetrated by German generals that Hitler lost them the war. Because the Soviets were denying access to their archives (as the ones who had captured OKH's headquarters during the Battle of Berlin, they had made off with the overwhelming bulk of the records), there was no real way to contradict them. But when the Berlin Wall fell and OKH's documents were released, analysis of the documentation quickly revealed that the sob stories were just the transparent attempt by the generals to avoid blame. And yet, you still find history books printed as recently as the few years saying something roughly along the lines of "if Hitler had listened to his generals..."

As much as ON likes to lampoon Wehrmacht logistic planning Zhukov went full Rommel with this plan.
No he didn't. Full Rommel would have been if he actually went and tried to have it implemented right then and there, regardless of what STAVKA . He didn't, because the plan was incomplete and he knew it (and also because Stalin would have had him shot for such blatant insubordination).

The May 15th start date would require at least a February authorization
Point of order: May 15th is the date the first draft was submitted by Zhukov to the General Staff for approval, not the date it was supposed to be executed or even implemented. The plan, or at least it's first draft, envisioned a two month preparation period so the earliest it could have been executed would have been mid-July.
 
Last edited:
Just a few things I wanted to add into the mix here

If Stalin makes the Decision to attack say from late 1940 after he first learns that Hitler is going to attack in May 1941 - then he has 6 - 8 months to prepare the Red Army - rather than having it in peacetime quarters doing everything possible to avoid annoying Germany until it is attacked in June 1941 its going to be far more organised and the country gearing up for total war much earlier.

Does this change the way in which the Germans deploy their forces elsewhere?

Could we see a much reduced Balkans Campaign - No DAK deploying to North Africa - no intervention in Greece?

Another point is what are the Germans going to think if they see a massive build up as the Red Army prepares for war - does it change their overall plans do they start to think more defensively?

They cannot know for sure that the Red Army has a Glass Jaw - and on paper without knowing how fragile it might very well be proven to be - its a formidable opponent.

Does the Red army try to pin the German Army in place in Poland while making a grab for The Polesti region in order to deny POL to the Axis

Perhaps the Red Army makes limited offensives in Poland - designed to secure strategic important areas that are easier to defend while making the main thrust into Romania

Do the British seeing the build up and the impact it is having on German plans try to make a larger commitment to Greece and the Balkans or do they focus on the Italians in North Africa?
 

Deleted member 1487

Just a few things I wanted to add into the mix here

If Stalin makes the Decision to attack say from late 1940 after he first learns that Hitler is going to attack in May 1941 - then he has 6 - 8 months to prepare the Red Army - rather than having it in peacetime quarters doing everything possible to avoid annoying Germany until it is attacked in June 1941 its going to be far more organised and the country gearing up for total war much earlier.

Does this change the way in which the Germans deploy their forces elsewhere?

Could we see a much reduced Balkans Campaign - No DAK deploying to North Africa - no intervention in Greece?

Another point is what are the Germans going to think if they see a massive build up as the Red Army prepares for war - does it change their overall plans do they start to think more defensively?

They cannot know for sure that the Red Army has a Glass Jaw - and on paper without knowing how fragile it might very well be proven to be - its a formidable opponent.

Does the Red army try to pin the German Army in place in Poland while making a grab for The Polesti region in order to deny POL to the Axis

Perhaps the Red Army makes limited offensives in Poland - designed to secure strategic important areas that are easier to defend while making the main thrust into Romania

Do the British seeing the build up and the impact it is having on German plans try to make a larger commitment to Greece and the Balkans or do they focus on the Italians in North Africa?

Its wasn't clear in 1940 that the Germans would attack in 1941:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Barbarossa#Soviet_preparations

It only became clear in the course of 1941 that the attack was coming. Sorge only reported the start date of Barbarossa in mid-June 1941.

Likely the warnings wouldn't start taking significant form until February 1941 at the earliest, anything before that is dismissable as hearsay.
 
They cannot know for sure that the Red Army has a Glass Jaw - and on paper without knowing how fragile it might very well be proven to be - its a formidable opponent.

Had the Germans thought the Red Army a formidable opponent, they wouldn't have invaded. The entire basis of Barbarossa is that the Soviets had a glass jaw... you know, Hitler's line about all they had to do is kick in the door? This applies just as much to a potential Soviet offensive. One of the German planners for Barbarossa actually came out and said something along the lines of "it's a pity they won't do us the favor of attacking."
 
Had the Germans thought the Red Army a formidable opponent, they wouldn't have invaded. The entire basis of Barbarossa is that the Soviets had a glass jaw... you know, Hitler's line about all they had to do is kick in the door? This applies just as much to a potential Soviet offensive. One of the German planners for Barbarossa actually came out and said something along the lines of "it's a pity they won't do us the favor of attacking."

indeed, and the Germans had the example of the Winter War and the Soviet moves into Poland and Bessarabia to feed that notion, both of which were far from the models of military excellence you would hope to see if you were STAVKA
 
Had the Germans thought the Red Army a formidable opponent, they wouldn't have invaded. The entire basis of Barbarossa is that the Soviets had a glass jaw... you know, Hitler's line about all they had to do is kick in the door? This applies just as much to a potential Soviet offensive. One of the German planners for Barbarossa actually came out and said something along the lines of "it's a pity they won't do us the favor of attacking."

I'm not so sure about that. At the very beginning of Barbarossa Hitler also said "At the beginning of each campaign one pushes a door into a dark, unseen room. One can never know what is hiding inside." (source Robert Kirchubel "Operation Barbarossa: The German Invasion of Soviet Russia" page 369) Knowing that the Red Army is formidable also adds a countervailing pressure, to invade before it becomes even stronger. The lure of the resources and economy of the European USSR is still the same regardless. I think they would probably still invade with a more realistic appraisal of Soviet strength, but would probably aim for a negotiated peace, such as we discussed in my German-Soviet Peace thread, or the Treaty of Sofia from Weber's Germany.
 
indeed, and the Germans had the example of the Winter War and the Soviet moves into Poland and Bessarabia to feed that notion, both of which were far from the models of military excellence you would hope to see if you were STAVKA

Quite.

I'm not so sure about that. At the very beginning of Barbarossa Hitler also said "At the beginning of each campaign one pushes a door into a dark, unseen room. One can never know what is hiding inside." (source Robert Kirchubel "Operation Barbarossa: The German Invasion of Soviet Russia" page 369)
And just a few weeks later he was crowing about the huge victories he had accomplished. Yeah, Hitler sometimes suffered temporary attacks of nerves when big events were forthcoming, but they were never bad enough to make him change the fundamental course. ITTL, he'll probably be shocked initially (if the Soviets take him by surprise) and/or outraged (if they don't), but the annihilation of the Soviets attacking force will settle whatever reservations he had.

I think they would probably still invade with a more realistic appraisal of Soviet strength,
Why would the handy annihilation of a Soviet assault, potentially at an even lower cost then IOTL, give them a more realistic appraisal of Soviet strength? If anything, it will reinforce their ingrained biases and attitudes just like the OTL victories did. And there won't even be a Smolensk to briefly mar it IATL.

but would probably aim for a negotiated peace, such as we discussed in my German-Soviet Peace thread, or the Treaty of Sofia from Weber's Germany.
Hardly. If anything, a smashing of the Soviet attack will reinforce their perception. They'll prosecute the war with OTL objectives and with a Soviet attack potentially compromising the Soviets ability to just outlast the German assault like they did IOTL 1941, the Nazis might just be able to achieve them.

And from beginning to end, Hitler never intended to negotiate peace with the Soviets. His idea was to push them into Siberia and keep them there. It was to be in essence a forever war, since that dovetailed with Hitler's own ideological views of a eternally social darwinistic racial struggle.
 
Last edited:
And just a few weeks later he was crowing about the huge victories he had accomplished.

My point was he wasn't 100% sure of the estimates of Soviet strength he was operating on, and invaded anyway. This indicates that in the counterfactual situation of him having a more realistic appraisal of Soviet strength beforehand, he might still have invaded.

Hardly. If anything, a smashing of the Soviet attack will reinforce their perception. They'll prosecute the war with OTL objectives and with a Soviet attack potentially compromising the Soviets ability to just outlast the Germans, they might just be able to achieve them.

Again, I am discussing the situation of "if the Germans had had a better understanding of Soviet strength before OTL Barbarossa, would they still have invaded?" which you brought up.

And a negotiated peace is in the realm of fantasy. From beginning to end, Hitler never intended to negotiate peace with the Soviets. His idea was to push them into Siberia and keep them there. It was to be in essence a forever war, since that dovetailed with Hitler's own ideological views of a eternally social darwinistic racial struggle.

First, again, we are discussing what he would have considered if he had known the truth about Soviet strength beforehand. Of course he didn't intend a negotiated peace OTL when he thought he could win a complete victory with one blow. Second, I cited serious sources in my thread which support the possibility of him considering it at one point.
 
My point was he wasn't 100% sure the estimates of Soviet strength he was operating on, and invaded anyway. This indicates that in the counterfactual situation of him having a more realistic appraisal of Soviet strength beforehand, he might still have invaded.
...
Again, I am discussing the situation of "if the Germans had had a better understanding of Soviet strength before OTL Barbarossa, would they still have invaded?" which you brought up.

Oh, I thought you were disputing my observation that the Germans didn't have a better understanding of Soviet strength and would not IATL where the Soviets attack first.

First, again, we are discussing what he would have considered if he had known the truth about Soviet strength.
Oh, Hitler probably would have still attacked. He told the Finns as much in a meeting in 1942. He understood that 1941 was his best shot to fulfill his ideological dream. It would be his generals who would be iffy on the idea, unlike IOTL.

Second, I cited serious sources in my thread which support the possibility of him considering it at one point.
You cite a serious source which has him voice the idea. That's not necessarily the same as considering it. He tended to voice a large number of ideas in any given meeting, but only a fraction of those actually had consideration behind it. Talk is cheap unless backed up by action and Hitler's actions were far more in line with the majority of the times he talked about the necessity of destroying the USSR then the handful of times he voiced the issue of peace.
 
Last edited:
Oh, I thought you were disputing my observation that the Germans didn't have a better understanding of Soviet strength and would not IATL where the Soviets attack first.

No, I was running with the assumption in your post which I quoted "Had the Germans thought the Red Army a formidable opponent..." What I'm disputing is that they wouldn't have invaded in such a situation.

You cite a serious source which has him voice the idea. That's not necessarily the same as considering it. He tended to voice a large number of ideas in any given meeting, but only a fraction of those actually had consideration behind it. Talk is cheap and Hitler's actions were far more consistent then his words.

His actions included taking the USSR as a near-ally with the M-R Pact. I don't see why, again assuming he understands the Soviets cannot be destroyed with a single blow, it can be said with certainty that he wouldn't be willing to consider a deal-which although not total victory-would still be very favorable to him.

Edit: Okay I didn't see your edit. Do we agree then?
 
Last edited:
Okay I didn't see your edit. Do we agree then?

On everything except Hitler's willingness to make peace, sure. I misremembered what Hitler said when and where.

His actions included taking the USSR as a near-ally with the M-R Pact.

Which was an act of opportunism to give him free reign to eliminate the French threat, which Hitler also viewed as an ideological necessity. Not even a month after France was eliminated, he started preparations to turn on the Soviets.

I don't see why, again assuming he understands the Soviets cannot be destroyed with a single blow, it can be said with certainty that he wouldn't be willing to consider a deal-which although not total victory-would still be very favorable to him.
Because, leaving aside that the Soviets would just use negotiations as a stringing out tactic while they rebuild their forces, making peace would also require him to bow to the reality that his ideological dream is unfulfillable and that's asking more then Hitler is psychologically capable of. He was very much a believer in the ability of one triumphing against objective issues through willpower.
 
Last edited:
Top