WI: Russia shot first (AKA Russia invading Austria-Hungary first)

[GameBawesome]

As we know, before WWI, Europe was a mix of paranoia, nationalism, and alliances. A month after the Death of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, which caused Russia, who was allied with Serbia, declaring war on Austria-Hungary. This then caused Germany to declare war on Russia, which caused France to declare war on Germany, which lead to Germany invading Belgium to get to France, which caused Britain to declare war on Germany, starting the beginning of WWI, with Italy, the Ottomans, Bulgaria, Romania, Japan, and America joining in later.

The interesting thing to note about the Central Powers, it was originally defensive alliance between Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy, called the Triple Alliance. However, since Austria-Hungary was the one to invade Serbia first, Italy didn't have to honor the Triple Alliance, since it was only meant to be defensive.

So, with this question, there are a few PODs this can go, but otherwise the same idea:

1. During the July Crisis after Franz Ferdinand's assassination, for some reason (Probably idiotic reason), Russia preemptively invades Austria-Hungary first to protect Serbia, despite Austria-Hungary having not declared war yet.
2. WWI starts earlier, during the Bosnian Crisis in 1908, Russia invades Austria-Hungary for the annexation of Bosnia.
3. An alternate WWI, for alternate reasons, starting either a little bit before or after OTL year of 1914.

With any of the PODs, (Although, preferably the first), had Russia been the one to start the war, causing WWI, how would this effect the obligations of certain countries (Looking at you, Italy), and how would these effect the different fronts of any Alternate WWI?

 

[Evil Crusader]

With any of the PODs, (Although, preferably the first), had Russia been the one to start the war, causing WWI, how would this effect the obligations of certain countries (Looking at you, Italy), and how would these effect the different fronts of any Alternate WWI?

As long as Italy gets reassured of gains at the expense of France, they are going to help out.

 

[AltoRegnant]

Italy being involved in the war might even out the russian advance, but I imagine that the entente still win- the cp are over stretched, Germany needs more men in galicia now, and the ottomans might be less keen on joining Germany now that two of it's biggest threats are on Berlin's side (whereas otl it was comparing russia and austria.)

A russian move this way also means russia mobilized much faster than otl- either nicky gave the order sooner or they're just more modernized. But either way that takes pressure off the western front. Meaning france might well be able to push into alsace-Lorraine. And if they behave there, they will find collaborators aplenty. The question is Germany's ability to handle that, and if they take the speed bump to get around the french army in alsace.

 

[Aphrodite]

Why does this change Italy's position? Nothing in the Triple Allaince says Italy has to defend Austria from a Russian attack. It requires an unprovoked attack by two great powers. Serbia doesnt count.

Bosnia: the Italians are as outraged as the Russians over Austria's move. At the first sign of weakness, they will pounce on Austria.

In a Russian strike during the July crisis, this is impossible. Germany is going to invade Belgium at the first sign of Russian mobilization. If they wait another 24 hours, their Western campaign fizzles.

The third scenario requires elaboration. The attitude of Britain and France makes it unlikely that Russia would strike unprovoked.