Will Kürlich Kerl
Banned
What happens if Russia annexes the entirety of Manchuria, instead of making it a protectorate?
WI: Russia annexes Manchuria
- Thread starter Will Kürlich Kerl
- Start date
What year??
If now... Mainland China will be extremely furious since their folks and the Manchurian folks will not be happy for any interference from Putin's Russia.
IF during Mao's time and the angry times between China and the Soviet Union...
Lots of anger and threats and military buildup...
If during Stalin's time...
Chiang will be pissed and Imperial Japan will likewise be annoy since they control Manchuria at this time period...
1900 Russia and China...
the other European powers will be mightily be annoy with Imperial Russia, especially Imperial Japan as the new regional power in Asia...
What remains of the Manchurian based Chinese Monarchy will be very unhappy with Russia annexing their territory, especially their homeland?
If now... Mainland China will be extremely furious since their folks and the Manchurian folks will not be happy for any interference from Putin's Russia.
IF during Mao's time and the angry times between China and the Soviet Union...
Lots of anger and threats and military buildup...
If during Stalin's time...
Chiang will be pissed and Imperial Japan will likewise be annoy since they control Manchuria at this time period...
1900 Russia and China...
the other European powers will be mightily be annoy with Imperial Russia, especially Imperial Japan as the new regional power in Asia...
What remains of the Manchurian based Chinese Monarchy will be very unhappy with Russia annexing their territory, especially their homeland?
Isn't this OTL? I mean, the single biggest cause of the Russo-Japanese War was that Russia stationed thousands of troops in southern Manchuria during the Boxer Rebellion, promised to remove them, and then didn't. It was well on its way to becoming de facto a Russian protectorate. If the Japanese don't drive them out, then it will become one in short order. If the Japanese do attack, and lose, then you'd probably see Russia formalize control over Korea as well. Either way, if Russia secures its control of southern Manchuria during this time, then after 1911 they can easily back this or that Manchu independence movement or warlord, and turn it into a client state the same way they eventually did with Mongolia.
I would suggest as a PoD the so-called "Man-Kan Plan". In the late 1890s, the Japanese offered to recognize Russian control over all of Manchura (Man), in return for Russian recognition of Japanese control over Korea (in Japanese, Kankoku). This was still on the table as late as 1902. The reason the Russians didn't accept this, of course, is they felt they didn't need to. They were sure they could eventually get both areas. If you change Russian confidence (for whatever reason, maybe a distraction in Europe) and they take the deal, then you have completed your challenge. At least, until one side or the other feels strong enough to try to strike a new balance...
I would suggest as a PoD the so-called "Man-Kan Plan". In the late 1890s, the Japanese offered to recognize Russian control over all of Manchura (Man), in return for Russian recognition of Japanese control over Korea (in Japanese, Kankoku). This was still on the table as late as 1902. The reason the Russians didn't accept this, of course, is they felt they didn't need to. They were sure they could eventually get both areas. If you change Russian confidence (for whatever reason, maybe a distraction in Europe) and they take the deal, then you have completed your challenge. At least, until one side or the other feels strong enough to try to strike a new balance...
unprincipled peter
Donor
In real time, yeah, no one is thrilled that Russia gets stronger. In retrospect, though, their 20/20 hindsight would be applauding nipping Japan's burgeoning might in the bud. One of the causes of WW1 is that Russia, after getting denied in the East, has to look to the West, where it comes into conflict with European powers. OTL, all the europeans, and Britain, lost out between 1900 and 1950. Ultimately, the USSR became stronger than them all combined. This is a good case for letting Russia benefit, may actually end up benefitting them all. But, that's all hindsight.
Still, Russia and Japan are going to clash sooner or later. Russia has to figure out how to improve it's fleet, and it's communications with an ambitious expansion in the east, otherwise, we're right back to OTL.
Still, Russia and Japan are going to clash sooner or later. Russia has to figure out how to improve it's fleet, and it's communications with an ambitious expansion in the east, otherwise, we're right back to OTL.
Even so, hindsight rarely does play into these things, by virtue of the nature of hindsight.
That said, I can't see Stalin doing this, because it would completely alienate China; and at the time, China and the USSR were reasonably amicable, and thus, annexing Manchuria would be giving up all China for direct rule over Manchuria. Any time after the solid establishment of the PRC is ASB, of course.
mcdo brought up how Russian ambitions in Manchuria were a leading cause of the Russo-Japanese War, so if the Russian Empire does, Japan could very well take this as a justified casus belli, as OTL. What it would do is chip away at Russia's side diplomatically, for offering such a flagrant CB. Russia would have less sympathy internationally, because nobody likes to see the Bear engage in such flagrant self-aggrandization.
That said, I can't see Stalin doing this, because it would completely alienate China; and at the time, China and the USSR were reasonably amicable, and thus, annexing Manchuria would be giving up all China for direct rule over Manchuria. Any time after the solid establishment of the PRC is ASB, of course.
mcdo brought up how Russian ambitions in Manchuria were a leading cause of the Russo-Japanese War, so if the Russian Empire does, Japan could very well take this as a justified casus belli, as OTL. What it would do is chip away at Russia's side diplomatically, for offering such a flagrant CB. Russia would have less sympathy internationally, because nobody likes to see the Bear engage in such flagrant self-aggrandization.
I imagine Germany would be happy, actually. Russian control of Manchuria is unlikely to threaten German holdings in Shandong, which were minimal anyway. And of course anything that makes Russian-British rapprochement less likely is a godsend. Anything that encourages Britain to deploy relatively more of its forces to East Asia (and relatively less in Europe) is a all to the good, too.
That's why in my post I mentioned that the Man-Kan trade idea was on the table until 1902: that's when the Anglo-Japanese Alliance was signed. Once Japan knew it could deal with Russia without having to worry about France or another power backing Russia's play, then they were less likely to deal with the Russians.
Perhaps that could be the PoD? For whatever reason, the British political groups who still favor Splendid Isolation win out over the ones that fear it's no longer tenable, and don't ally with the Japanese. The Japanese don't feel comfortable attempting to eject the Russians from Manchuria under these conditions, and so Russia's de facto control of the region from 1900-1904 becomes solidified. Soon, the TSR is completed, and Russian forces in the region are built up to the point that the Japanese don't think they can attack with any real chance of success. The Xinhai Revolution starts on schedule, and the Russians see their chance to transform Manchuria from a Russian sphere-of-influence into an outright protectorate, betting that the British will be too interested in keeping Russia as a potential ally against the Germans to react too strongly.
From here, I see two possible outcomes:
1.) The British are rightly pissed off, but the Russians are correct. The British don't complain out loud, but move to strengthen their holdings in China as well.
2.) The British are completely pissed off. They break ties with Russia, and begin attempting to strengthen the new RoC to prevent further sections of the old Qing lands from getting lopped off. Japan, Britain, and the US form a new quasi-alliance dedicated to protecting the current status quo, out of a mutual interest to prevent the vast Chinese market from being sealed off into segments.
What do you think? Too far-fetched?
Is there a halfway option? Britain is going to be mighty pissed off but I don't think they'll be too vocal about it. OTL Britain was REALLY paranoid about Russian influence in Central Asia and China(I mean look at the expedition to Tibet) so I could see this playing on that train of thought: "Look! Now the Russian are trying to conquer China as well as Central Asia!" I don't think They'd got to the extent of breaking relations with Russia though. Ultimately Russia's just too useful an ally against Germany to jeopardize at this point.
Wilhelm II gave moral support to Russia in the Russo-Japanese war. He was seriously frightened by "The Yellow Peril" and the Brits.
Russia had already been building up influence in Tuva for quite a while by then, but didn't actually annex that area outright -- even though it was more isolated from the outside world than Manchuria is -- until during WW2 when [of course] the other powers had other problems to consider. That being the case, is an outright annexation of Manchuria during the first decade of the 20th century really likely even with the suggested PODs? Wouldn't simply continuing to build influence and legal rights there, or even the creation of a client-state, be more probable?
I think that for Germany to be happy with this, you'd need somebody who's not Wilhelm II on the throne, for the above reasons.
I think one interesting factor is that if somebody is going to be especially pissed by this turn of events, it would be the US. Russia has completely urinated on the US's Open Door policy, and by ensuring China's eternal hatred, has set up the US, the UK, even Japan (since this might overshadow Taiwan, and also block off Japan from its OTL line of expansion) as potential allies for expelling the Russians from China. The UK may or may not weigh the costs of Russia vs. China, but the US and Japan are going to jump at this.
Japan wont really care, their main interest at the time is Korea.
Infact the Japanese suggested a division wherein Russia would get the entire Manchuria, and they would be allowed to keep Korea.
But for some reason st Petersburg decided not to answer and sent troops into Korea, as the tsar had an interest in the "lumber and minerals" of Korea.
The Qing might have protested, but lets not forget how utterly weak they were at the time. Other European powers wouldn't care much either, they were trading with the southern ports, and Manchuria wasn't really China proper as such anyways.
-----------------
Now to the actual question.
Siberian development lagged due to a number of issues, lacking industry, good usable minerals and a proper industrial population base.
Now things were moving forward, but slowly. Even the trans-siberian railroad is still mostly one-tracked.
So the seizing of those resources, especially the rich iron and coal fields that were known at the time (I'll assume 1870-1900), would have created a very powerful center of steel production, and aside from allowing faster railroad construction throughout the empire, offered also a good agricultural base.
Perhaps even allowing the manpower necessary to turn the far-east into a real stronghold for the empire, with the ability to project power effectively.
And as a second center of power, made developing the far-east in particular a lot faster, easier and cheaper.
I'm looking here squarely at the fishing, even more than any mining or the like, the link between fishing and ship building that invariably is developed and thus prospers and can be turned into producing actual warships as well!
With a strong shipbuilding center in the east, there are endless opportunities. Maybe competing for pacific islands, maybe deciding the Japanese are a menace after all, this time with local ship production and a population base. That war went a lot less well for J than most assume, think losses 2:1 and being on the brink of self destruction over rising debts. The fact that the tsar stepped down was a life-saver.
....perhaps its Russia that ends up being guilty of the marco polo bridge incident... and thus with a more powerful land military than Japans, might end up doing better while China is falling apart into warlordism and Europe wants nothing as much as continued peace, no matter what. But that is definitely past 1900
Manchuria is kinda far from India, where Britain's interest was. Unlike central Asia that was a march away.
Meanwhile the allowed trading ports were in the south. (which is also why so called Chinese food in restaurants are south-Chinese food). Manchuria has as much relevance as dunno, Russian Alaska was threatening the 12 colonies or some such. Plenty of land in between.
It's not so much the conflict, so much as the fact that not only has Russia opened up the precedent for extremely large land grabs in China, but such a large annexation seriously threatens the stability of the Qing Dynasty, which is not at all in Britain's interests.
Technically, both Russia and Japan were in a great position to annex Manchuria during the late 19th and early 20th centuries given they had superiority over China in just about every aspect imaginable. The one strength China did have, however, was pretty much insurmontable - demographic. The massive migration of Han Chinese from Northern China to Manchuria between 1860 and 1930 know as Chuang Guandong made any annexation by either power pretty much unfeasible. Russia could try to annex the area or exert more influence than it did OTL (although it tried rather hard OTL - it was simply thwarted by Japan), but it would see a stream of Han immigrants escaping the famine plagued overpopulated norther provinces regardless of how hard or how early it moves into the region. That'd make Russian power in the region temporary regardless. A puppet state would be your best bet, but Russia would find itself facing by nascent Han nationalism just as the Japanese did when they established Manchukuo.
If we're talking about a Russian protectorate (the likely scenario), Han migration is probably not going to interfere with Russia's ability to exploit Manchuria's resources. Long-term annexation is not going to be feasible, but that's getting into a whole different time period.
I am not going to list my opinions on the powers that were (such as how fait acompli worked and continues to work wonders), as there has been far too much of that pontificating already. Here are some ground points, which might make a plausible .
A) Manchuria was barren territory inhabited by a few nomads, the Manchus who used it as a preserve. The penalty for the average Chinese to be caught a few miles north of Beijing was death, if I recall correctly, not completely unlike Ghenghis Khan's idea of laying waste the Northern Chinese Plains to pasture. (After 1911, it was open season and practically a Oklahoma land rush during times of famine in parts south.) Drop an eminent domain purchase at low price to the Manchu owners, offer the land to those in Russia and those in Eastern Europe (mostly Slavic, of course), could do the trick of settling the land, quick, by westerners.
B) Imperial Russians were slothful colonialists when furs, mammoth tusks or other ivory, gold, etc were not obviously present. Very large islands off the coast, like Wrangell Island, were ignored. The Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island sized Severnaya Zemlya group are only 80 miles off the coast mid Siberia and discovered in 1913. The Czar was unimpressed. The Cossacks interested Russia in Siberia from Ivan the Terrible to mid 19th century due to delivering furs. So to fill up the spaces in short order, essentially free land would be necessary (sans most or all the transportation costs) to outsiders, watered down with Russians and others of the empire proper.
c) Bring in a relative or close associate of en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Januarius_MacGahan , perhaps a son if he had one from his Russian noble wife, to help out the process. This would especially help with Bulgarians, as he is to this day viewed as a liberator from the Turks.
Good luck
A) Manchuria was barren territory inhabited by a few nomads, the Manchus who used it as a preserve. The penalty for the average Chinese to be caught a few miles north of Beijing was death, if I recall correctly, not completely unlike Ghenghis Khan's idea of laying waste the Northern Chinese Plains to pasture. (After 1911, it was open season and practically a Oklahoma land rush during times of famine in parts south.) Drop an eminent domain purchase at low price to the Manchu owners, offer the land to those in Russia and those in Eastern Europe (mostly Slavic, of course), could do the trick of settling the land, quick, by westerners.
B) Imperial Russians were slothful colonialists when furs, mammoth tusks or other ivory, gold, etc were not obviously present. Very large islands off the coast, like Wrangell Island, were ignored. The Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island sized Severnaya Zemlya group are only 80 miles off the coast mid Siberia and discovered in 1913. The Czar was unimpressed. The Cossacks interested Russia in Siberia from Ivan the Terrible to mid 19th century due to delivering furs. So to fill up the spaces in short order, essentially free land would be necessary (sans most or all the transportation costs) to outsiders, watered down with Russians and others of the empire proper.
c) Bring in a relative or close associate of en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Januarius_MacGahan , perhaps a son if he had one from his Russian noble wife, to help out the process. This would especially help with Bulgarians, as he is to this day viewed as a liberator from the Turks.
Good luck