WI: Ron Paul runs under the Constitution Party in 2008

[Deblano]

In 2008, Representative Ron Paul of Texas, after dropping out of the 2008 Republican Party primaries, endorsed Chuck Baldwin of the Constitution Party over Bob Barr of the Libertarian Party.

What if Ron Paul ran under the Constitution Party in 2008 as a third party ticket, maybe selecting Baldwin as his running mate? How would he do in the election against Obama and McCain?

 

[Jaguars4life]

He would be like Ross Perot

 

[Beata Beatrix]

He would be like Ross Perot

Are you kidding? He'd get 5% if he was mind-bogglingly lucky.

 

[Deblano]

Are you kidding? He'd get 5% if he was mind-bogglingly lucky.

He would certainly do better than Baldwin, but I think 5% is pretty much his ceiling.

I'd say he's get around 2-3%, similar to Nader in 2000

 

[Jaguars4life]

Are you kidding? He'd get 5% if he was mind-bogglingly lucky.

In some states. I spouse he gives Obama Missouri.

 

[Beata Beatrix]

In some states. I spouse he gives Obama Missouri.

No way. He won't change the race much at all.

 

[Indicus]

No way. He won't change the race much at all.

Missouri was so close that anything could change it.

However, a slim victory rather than a slim defeat for Obama in Missouri won't alter his coattails and so won't alter his presidency at all.

The only real effect, I think, is that someone else will have to fly the alt-right banner in 2012 as Paul will be seen as a "traitor".

 

[historynutty]

In 2008, Representative Ron Paul of Texas, after dropping out of the 2008 Republican Party primaries, endorsed Chuck Baldwin of the Constitution Party over Bob Barr of the Libertarian Party.

What if Ron Paul ran under the Constitution Party in 2008 as a third party ticket, maybe selecting Baldwin as his running mate? How would he do in the election against Obama and McCain?

He would have gotten maybe 1% of the vote.

 

[David T]

No way. He won't change the race much at all.

McCain carried Missouri by 0.13% of the vote. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Missouri,_2008 So, yes, Ron Paul as a third-party candidate could give Obama Missouri--with of course no significant effect on the national outcome.

 

[historynutty]

McCain carried Missouri by 0.13% of the vote. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Missouri,_2008 So, yes, Ron Paul as a third-party candidate could give Obama Missouri--with of course no significant effect on the national outcome.

beyond the neocons squealing about spoilers for the next 10 election cycles.

 

[Indicus]

beyond the neocons squealing about spoilers for the next 10 election cycles.

They've been doing that since 1992. Not much would change, really.

 

[Aaaaasima]

I can imagine that a sitting congressman defecting to a 3rd party and then running for their nomination would make some news

 

[Indicus]

I can imagine that a sitting congressman defecting to a 3rd party and then running for their nomination would make some news

Then everyone would promptly forget about it after McCain chooses Palin.

 

[Aaaaasima]

Then everyone would promptly forget about it after McCain chooses Palin.

yeah lol

probably gets as much attention as Stein has been getting

 

[Indicus]

yeah lol

probably gets as much attention as Stein has been getting

So basically, he'd be campaigning to get into the polls?

 

[pattersonautobody]

He would be like Ross Perot

No, he wouldn't sniff 8%...and I voted Baldwin.

 

[Deleted member 87099]

He would be like Ross Perot

I can't seem him getting anymore than 3 or 4%. So, no, not Perot. But, he might be able to swing another state to Obama.

 

[Glass Onion]

He might do worse than Bob Barr due to ballot access issues. How many states even had the Constitution Party on the ballot? Paul's constituency as a third party candidate would consist largely of libertarians. Not running on that ticket dilutes his potential impact. Ballot issues aside Paul may cause that libertarian vote to be split between himself and Barr. Forget about Obama-how does Paul overtake Barr as the leading candidate of third party libertarians?

And even in the absolute best case scenario-all Paul can accomplish is to turn a landslide into a super landslide-and that is if he wins significant support from McCain which isn't likely. In that case the biggest questions are:

1. Is Paul on the ballot in Kentucky?
2. Does his party have a candidate for Senate?
3. What's Paul's margin and how many of his voters are Republicans?
4. Do Paul's Republican supporters vote a straight party ticket?
5. If so are there enough votes to alter the outcome?

While the election was not close in a traditional sense of the Republicans who won reelection to the Senate Mitch McConnell came closest to losing. If Paul can drag him down somehow that's a pretty large change in the past eight years.