WI: Romania Fights On '44

What I am curious about (after trying for weeks to get Axworthy's book on Romania) is the effect that Romania switch had on the end of the WWII. The man himself claims it shortened the war by six months.

So what I ask are the effects if, say, King Michael's coup failed and Antonescu's government stayed in power? Obviously Romania's pithy army isn't going to win the war, but how long, if at all, would it drag out the conclusion? Could they hold off the Russians long enough for the Allies to grab more land in Eastern Europe? Would Hungary keep Northern Transylvania after the war?
 

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Romania's switch cut the Axis off from the petroleum fields and industry in and around Ploiești. That was really the only place where they were getting petroleum from, the other major source was coal liquefaction facilities that produced synthetic petroleum products.
 
How long is the Rommanian army going to last under the Soviet assult of August 1944 anyway? A couple of more days longer than OTL????

Best case the Germans are able to pull the 6th army back to the Carpathians along with whatever Rommanians are still willing to fight and hoild there a while.

6 months seems a stretch. The Germans will hold the Hungarian plain longer and Budapest longer, a little better economics and mabe 20 more divsions on the eastern front.

The Soviets will still spill into Bucharest and Ploesti, Bulgaria will still have to change sides, the Germans will still have to evacuate Greece. The western allies are on the German western border still and the oil industry is under air assault still.

If the Germans can avoid some of their OTL 1945 Hungarian offensives and keep those reserves in Poland I can see the war lasting 1 month longer.
 
The Romanians were basically on the verge of being defeated then anyways.

My thinking is that this would probably have the most impact on the logistical side and thus slow down the Soviet advance? Can anyone comment?
 
6 months sounds like an exaggeration, but still...at the time of King Michael's coup, Romania had a mobilized land army of 1,077,000 soldiers, with an additional 620,000 or so German troops inside the country - two thirds of which already positioned in Moldavia. That could seriously slow down the Soviets advance.
 

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6 months is an exaggeration, but I could see 3-4 months, as not only did Romanian manpower and sudden turn on German seriously hurt Axis combat power and add more soldiers against her all in one go, it collapsed the front line in the south part of the front.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romania_during_World_War_II#Campaign_against_the_Axis
On 23 August 1944, just as the Red Army was penetrating the Moldavian front, King Michael I of Romania led a successful coup with support from opposition politicians and the army. Michael I, who was initially considered to be not much more than a figurehead, was able to successfully depose the Antonescu dictatorship. The King then offered a non-confrontational retreat to German ambassador Manfred von Killinger. But the Germans considered the coup "reversible" and attempted to turn the situation around by military force. The Romanian First, Second (forming), and what little was left of the Third and the Fourth Armies (one corps) were under orders from the King to defend Romania against any German attacks. King Michael offered to put the Romanian Army, which at that point had a strength of nearly 1,000,000 men,[7] on the side of the Allies. Surprisingly, with the Red Army occupying parts of Romania, Stalin immediately recognized the king and the restoration of the conservative Romanian monarchy. [Deutscher, Stalin. 1967, p.519]

This resulted in a split of the country between those that still supported Germany and its armies and those that supported the new government, the latter often forming partisan groups and gradually gaining the most support. To the Germans the situation was very precarious as Romanian units had been integrated in the Axis defensive lines: not knowing which units were still loyal to the Axis cause and which ones joined the Soviets or discontinued fighting altogether, defensive lines could suddenly collapse.

In a radio broadcast to the Romanian nation and army on the night of 23 August King Michael issued a cease-fire,[8] proclaimed Romania's loyalty to the Allies, announced the acceptance of an armistice (to be signed on September 12)[9] offered by Great Britain, the United States, and the USSR, and declared war on Germany.[10] The coup accelerated the Red Army's advance into Romania, but did not avert a rapid Soviet occupation and capture of about 130,000 Romanian soldiers, who were transported to the Soviet Union where many perished in prison camps. The armistice was signed three weeks later on 12 September 1944, on terms virtually dictated by the Soviet Union.[8] Under the terms of the armistice, Romania announced its unconditional surrender[11] to the USSR and was placed under occupation of the Allied forces with the Soviet Union as their representative, in control of media, communication, post, and civil administration behind the front.[8]

As the country declared war on Germany on the night of 23 August 1944, border clashes between Hungarian and Romanian troops erupted almost immediately. On 24 August German troops attempted to seize Bucharest and suppress Michael's coup, but were repelled by the city's defenses, which received some support from the United States Air Force. Other Wehrmacht units in the country suffered severe losses: remnants of the Sixth Army retreating west of the Prut River were cut off and destroyed by the Red Army, which was now advancing at an even greater speed, while Romanian units attacked German garrisons at the Ploiești oilfields, forcing them to retreat to Hungary. The Romanian Army captured over 50,000 German prisoners around this time, who were later surrendered to the Soviets.[15]

In early September, Soviet and Romanian forces entered Transylvania and captured the towns of Brașov and Sibiu while advancing toward the Mureș River. Their main objective was Cluj (Cluj-Napoca), a city regarded as the historical capital of Transylvania. However, the Second Hungarian Army was present in the region, and together with the Eighth German Army engaged the Allied forces on 5 September in what was to become the Battle of Turda, which lasted until 8 October and resulted in heavy casualties for both sides.[16] Also around this time, the Hungarian Army carried out its last independent offensive action of the war, penetrating Arad County in western Romania. Despite initial success, a number of ad-hoc Romanian cadet battalions managed to stop the Hungarian advance at the Battle of Păuliș, and soon a combined Romanian-Soviet counterattack overwhelmed the Hungarians, who gave ground and evacuated Arad itself on 21 September.[17]
The Romanian Army ended the war fighting against the Wehrmacht alongside the Red Army in Transylvania, Hungary, Yugoslavia, Austria and Czechoslovakia, from August 1944 until the end of the war in Europe. In May 1945, the First and Fourth armies took part in the Prague Offensive. The Romanian Army incurred heavy casualties fighting Nazi Germany. Of some 538,000 Romanian soldiers who fought against the Axis in 1944-45, some 167,000 were killed, wounded or went missing.[18]

Without this the Soviets would have had to defeat the Romanians and German, plus occupy Romania and fight a guerilla war against holdouts, which would have sapped a lot of strength, while survivors pull back into Hungary and keep fighting there.
 
6 months sounds like an exaggeration, but still...at the time of King Michael's coup, Romania had a mobilized land army of 1,077,000 soldiers, with an additional 620,000 or so German troops inside the country - two thirds of which already positioned in Moldavia. That could seriously slow down the Soviets advance.

Much of that force was already cut off and essentially broken at the time of the coup. By the third day of the offensive (roughly when the coup took place), for instance, the German 6th Army had mostly disintegrated with enemy forces deep in its rear.

EDIT: If we're going by Wikipedia,

The surrender of Romania took place at a time when the Soviet Army already stood deep inside Romania, and the German 6th Army had been cut off from the rest of the Wehrmacht troops in Romania. The opening of hostilities between the Wehrmacht and the Romanian Army commenced after a failed coup d'état by the German ambassador.

I don't deny that the Romanian capitulation speeded up the war, rather that the main pathway was more logistical than tactical.
 
plus occupy Romania and fight a guerilla war against holdouts, which would have sapped a lot of strength, while survivors pull back into Hungary and keep fighting there.
Occupy sure. But to fight large guerrilla? I doubt it. Only plus for Germany would be even under equipped (as Soviets took a lot of modern arms - their armored regiment was fighting in Slovakia with old French tanks Romanians modernized a bit while Soviets took Pz IVs - later I believe they gave them some back in order to make them more efficient) they had numbers of troops fighting Nazis and Hungarians in Romania, Hungary and later Slovakia and Moravia but also small parts of Austria.

Would regulars troops to pull into Hungary and fight Soviets? Tell the true I doubt it.

After all how many Romanians deserted Romanian Army which fought Germans? Not many. And they had some 60 000 death in Slovakia alone!

Actually Soviets gave them opportunity to fight Hungarians to liberate Transylvania. Germans, instead had to put their own troops in between Hungarians and Romanians in order they not to start fighting each other.

What I am curious about (after trying for weeks to get Axworthy's book on Romania) is the effect that Romania switch had on the end of the WWII. The man himself claims it shortened the war by six months.
Axworthy's book is very good. One of the best on Romania in English language. I was lucky. Got mine in paperback few years ago for just maybe 30 $ on e-bay or amazon. Before it went for 100 and more. Shocked I see it is again a case. They are offering copy on amazon for some $ 99 and used for $ 74. I have also his book on Slovakia. There are mistakes too (maybe same will go on his Romania book) but one of the best in English language on Slovakia I would say.

But I agree with wiking 6 month may be bit too much. However 3-4 months is OK by mine opinion too. However if their arms industry was a bit more developed - for example by more cooperation with their little entente ally Czechoslovakia in 30-ties...
 
Functionally speaking, the Romanian armies had already shattered and Romania was in a state of total military collapse. A delay of even 3-4 months on the Soviet Balkans strikes me optimistc. More like a month, maximum. And it had zero effect on the Soviet advance through Poland. It doesn't even really affect Yugoslavia, since the main place the Romanians can delay the Soviets as they roll through is the Carpathian mountain passes. After the destruction of the Romanian and German 6th Armies, neither Axis power has the combat power to hold the Soviets from the rest of Romania for any real length of time.

So basically, the Western Allies take Vienna first. Probably a net gain for the art and architectural world if the German's don't fight as hard there as a result. That is it.
 
Functionally speaking, the Romanian armies had already shattered and Romania was in a state of total military collapse. A delay of even 3-4 months on the Soviet Balkans strikes me optimistc. More like a month, maximum. And it had zero effect on the Soviet advance through Poland. It doesn't even really affect Yugoslavia, since the main place the Romanians can delay the Soviets as they roll through is the Carpathian mountain passes. After the destruction of the Romanian and German 6th Armies, neither Axis power has the combat power to hold the Soviets from the rest of Romania for any real length of time.

So basically, the Western Allies take Vienna first. Probably a net gain for the art and architectural world if the German's don't fight as hard there as a result. That is it.
Germans managed to hold nicely in Slovak Carpathian mountains. Uprising there lasted from late August to end of October but failed to open passes. Afterwards it took Soviets, Czechoslovaks and Romanians 6 months to advance across Slovakia. So maybe from there goes Axworthy's assumption.

However. Even extra months plus Western allies taking Wien and maybe also Czechoslovakian Bratislava and Prague would also change greatly post war situation central Europe. ;)
 
Germans managed to hold nicely in Slovak Carpathian mountains.

The Germans had a whole bunch of formations immediatly on hand in Slovakia. In Romania, the closest German formations to the north of the Carpathian mountains are on the wrong-side of Hungary to get there before the Soviet tank armies.

However. Even extra months plus Western allies taking Wien and maybe also Czechoslovakian Bratislava and Prague would also change greatly post war situation central Europe. ;)
I'm not sure how this prevents Prague from falling. Prague was taken by the First Ukrainian Front coming in from the Southern Poland-Slovakian axis, not any of the Soviet fronts coming in from the Hungarian axis.
 
The Germans had a whole bunch of formations immediatly on hand in Slovakia. In Romania, the closest German formations to the north of the Carpathian mountains are on the wrong-side of Hungary to get there before the Soviet tank armies.
Actually Germans used formations in Eastern Slovakia which were suppose to men Carpathian passes to disarm Slovak Eastern field Army. However to fight Insurgent Army in Central Slovakia they used ad hoc formations. For example "division" Tatra, units from southern Poland to advance along Poprad river, school and training units from Protectorate.

I'm not sure how this prevents Prague from falling. Prague was taken by the First Ukrainian Front coming in from the Southern Poland-Slovakian axis, not any of the Soviet fronts coming in from the Hungarian axis.
Western allies were OTL already in Pilsner when Prague Uprising started but waited. With them in Wien it would be logical to advance at least into parts of parts of Protectorate. With Prague as one of main transport hubs not entairely impossible for Patton to advance on Prague. OTL he had possibilities and means to do so and beat Soviets to it at least a day. however Prague was left to Soviets at the time for political reasons.
 
So while we agree that six months is a stretch, what happens to Rumania after the war? I read that the territorial losses of 1940 were reversed in part due to Rumania's defection, so my main question is will Hungary retain N. Transylvania post war? Their case could be helped if Operation Panzerfaust goes through and Hungary is occupied
 
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