WI: Republican Victory in Spanish Civil War
- Thread starter BBN4ever
- Start date
I'm no expert on the Spanish Civil War, but couldnt the Republicans won fairly easily if Franco and his army been unable to cross from Morocco through the German airlift?
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That was a view popular back in the 1970s or earlier. Been so long I cant recall much about it.
The POD has to be very early for the Republicans to win.
Good possible candidates would be:
1) Government arms the worker militias just prior or immediately after the coup. In the few local situations where these militias were armed, they generally were successful at defeating the Nationalists.
2) France openly supports the Republic with arms. There is no embargo.
3) The Nationalists are not able to move the Moroccan legions to Spain for some reason.
Good possible candidates would be:
1) Government arms the worker militias just prior or immediately after the coup. In the few local situations where these militias were armed, they generally were successful at defeating the Nationalists.
2) France openly supports the Republic with arms. There is no embargo.
3) The Nationalists are not able to move the Moroccan legions to Spain for some reason.
Franco and his fellow Nationalists had no chance without a German and Italian intervention. But how would you stop this from happening? Hitler and Mussolini had no interest in following the Non-Intervetion pact with Britain and France.
1: This is a pretty likely POD, however the government was extremely slow enacting these measures as most military officers and admininstration sided with the Nationalists. There is no doubt the POUM and CNT could've fought off the Nationalists if they were properly equipped, but even the guns they had were pretty old (think pre-WW1 for many of them) as they were mostly rounded up from local armories. Furthermore, the government was not very willing to give these unions and militias any more power than they already had.
2. Also fairly likely, as France supported the Republicans in secret to some degree, but PM Léon Blum was fearful of starting a World War right then and there, even though he was a leftist.
3. There's a really good chance the airlift still makes it to Spain, unless Germany for some reason declines to support Franco to the extent it did or the Republicans pull themselves together and better anticipate the airlift, which are both highly unlikely.
The best PODs are generally early. Stop Franco crossing, have the Republic put up a competent defence and not alienate the various factions (ie the Anarchist debacle).
The later the war goes the harder it will be for the Republic to clutch.
But if the Republic wins, they won't end up as a Soviet puppet. Massive Soviet aid aside Spain is too far and too ruined. However, I can see the Germans invading Spain if all is goes as OTL. That is an angle I haven't seen explored in a TL.
The later the war goes the harder it will be for the Republic to clutch.
But if the Republic wins, they won't end up as a Soviet puppet. Massive Soviet aid aside Spain is too far and too ruined. However, I can see the Germans invading Spain if all is goes as OTL. That is an angle I haven't seen explored in a TL.
Correct, the original leader was José Sanjurjo, but he died very early on in a plane crash. There's a whole Turtledove novel about him taking less luggage with him and surviving the flight, causing Spain to take less of an isolationist role in WWII.
Of course they are, and all 3 of those would definitely result in a Republican victory as it wasn't always an inevitable outcome.
But what would cause Franco to stay grounded in Morocco, or at least deplete his force greatly, and how does the Spanish government pull itself together in time to ready the defenses and arm the anarchists?
Maybe have the Allies directly support the Republic, perhaps they decide to head off the Soviet Union in terms of influence in the area and send arms and "volunteers". Maybe the Royal Navy flexes it muscles and Franco can't move his army to the mainland as fast or at all. Those first few days were really that crucial to the plotters.
Alternatively, maybe have the Republic be a whole lot less socialistic, at least on the outside, and they manage to lure in moderates. There were a good amount of conservatives who supported the Republic because they supported democracy in Spain. Hell, maybe even factions or soldiers that joined the coup might just decide to stay home. I know there were even a few Carlists who were sidelined because they didn't believe in the coup!
In my TL the Germans decide against helping the Nationalists because of the imminent remilitarization of the Rhineland, which happens in 1937 rather than 1936 as OTL, as they don't want to alarm the French into acting to prevent it by helping to install a German-aligned government on France's southern border.
GiantMonkeyMan
Banned
Internal fighting on the Nationalist side could be one avenue to explore. There were a lot of varying factions and whilst the Republicans suffered infighting, the Nationalists somehow remained tentatively united.
A few suggestions:
1st. UK allows republican navy refuel at Gibraltar so there is a permanent blockade (ioh hte repubilcan navy must go back to Malaga or even Cartagena to refuel)
2nd There was a pending delivery of french armament of about 20 million dollars ordered months before the war that was never sent. The french goverment expedites the delivery after the italian planes crashed in Algeria (ioh the do nothing when find the planes)
3rd UK after the failing of no intervention policy and italian attacks on neutral and uk warships allows end of the embargo to the republic.
The 2 first are more decisive than the last and could alone changed the war. The last is more restricted and probably also needed the european collective security policy pacted with URSS
1st. UK allows republican navy refuel at Gibraltar so there is a permanent blockade (ioh hte repubilcan navy must go back to Malaga or even Cartagena to refuel)
2nd There was a pending delivery of french armament of about 20 million dollars ordered months before the war that was never sent. The french goverment expedites the delivery after the italian planes crashed in Algeria (ioh the do nothing when find the planes)
3rd UK after the failing of no intervention policy and italian attacks on neutral and uk warships allows end of the embargo to the republic.
The 2 first are more decisive than the last and could alone changed the war. The last is more restricted and probably also needed the european collective security policy pacted with URSS
I wrote a timeline of a Republican victory almost three years ago. The PoD there is an earlier breakthrough in the Battle of Brunete stifles the Nationalist actions against Madrid and cuts off the path to the Cantabrian Mountains, leading to a drawn-out campaign in the North and bitter rivalries in the Nationalist camp.
Sanjurjo taking Spain into WWII is very unlikely, so Turtledove messed things up there. Under Sanjurjo, I think Spain would have been more isolationist and more akin to the Alfonsian monarchy than towards the crypto-fascist clerical authoritarianism of the Estado Español of OTL. Thus, support for the other continental fascist powers would have been weakened by an inward-looking leadership.
This is one of the more important points when one looks at the Spanish Civil War. Franco's political effectiveness was in managing disparate factions with leaders that had huge egos, thus allowing the Nationalists to coalesce around Franco once Sanjurjo was dead.
A major PoD is José Antonio Primo de Rivera being rescued from prison in Alicante during the summer of 1936, which was actually an OTL plan. Having him take control of the Falange during the early days of the war would have seen a more strident fascist element in the Nationalist camp. Franco wouldn't have the propaganda of el ausente to rally the fascists to his cause.
Emilio Mola living longer is another factor, as well as Gonzalo Queipo de Llano perhaps not declaring for the Nationalist side (or delaying his declaration), towards creating more dissent on the Nationalist side. Francisco Franco was very lucky in our world - almost to the extent of being implausibly lucky.
Sanjurjo taking Spain into WWII is very unlikely, so Turtledove messed things up there. Under Sanjurjo, I think Spain would have been more isolationist and more akin to the Alfonsian monarchy than towards the crypto-fascist clerical authoritarianism of the Estado Español of OTL. Thus, support for the other continental fascist powers would have been weakened by an inward-looking leadership.
This is one of the more important points when one looks at the Spanish Civil War. Franco's political effectiveness was in managing disparate factions with leaders that had huge egos, thus allowing the Nationalists to coalesce around Franco once Sanjurjo was dead.
A major PoD is José Antonio Primo de Rivera being rescued from prison in Alicante during the summer of 1936, which was actually an OTL plan. Having him take control of the Falange during the early days of the war would have seen a more strident fascist element in the Nationalist camp. Franco wouldn't have the propaganda of el ausente to rally the fascists to his cause.
Emilio Mola living longer is another factor, as well as Gonzalo Queipo de Llano perhaps not declaring for the Nationalist side (or delaying his declaration), towards creating more dissent on the Nationalist side. Francisco Franco was very lucky in our world - almost to the extent of being implausibly lucky.
thaddeus
Donor
wonder the effects on Portugal?
my scenario was always breakaway Galicia or Greater Portugal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Portugal
(a little ASB?)
my scenario was always breakaway Galicia or Greater Portugal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Portugal
(a little ASB?)
Assuming a French supported leftist (or at least not rightist) government in Spain in 1939 one might consider if they would join in with France (with also the Portuguese?) and might encourage the French to continue fighting with the Pyrenees as a potential defence line as a worst case?
British troops withdrawn from Dunkirk and the 2nd BEF might then be sent via Portugal or Northern Spain with the RAF in Northern Spain providing air cover for either (or both) their transport and operations. With an ongoing continental land war the Germans would be too busy to contemplate invading Britain and an ongoing French part in the war releases Royal Navy OTL vessels from having to guard the Mediterranean and putting their carriers at risk of land based air attack.
Italy would be more concerned with defence against French and British action in North Africa which, again releases forces for this putative SW Europe campaign. Even if the front stabilises without a major German retreat Hitler cannot afford to attack Russia in 1941 as German forces are all busy in SW France. I think Mussolini would keep Italy nominally neutral but allowing 'volunteers' and supplies to be sent to aid the Germans.
British troops withdrawn from Dunkirk and the 2nd BEF might then be sent via Portugal or Northern Spain with the RAF in Northern Spain providing air cover for either (or both) their transport and operations. With an ongoing continental land war the Germans would be too busy to contemplate invading Britain and an ongoing French part in the war releases Royal Navy OTL vessels from having to guard the Mediterranean and putting their carriers at risk of land based air attack.
Italy would be more concerned with defence against French and British action in North Africa which, again releases forces for this putative SW Europe campaign. Even if the front stabilises without a major German retreat Hitler cannot afford to attack Russia in 1941 as German forces are all busy in SW France. I think Mussolini would keep Italy nominally neutral but allowing 'volunteers' and supplies to be sent to aid the Germans.
I really wish he wasn't so lucky, those anarcho-communist experiments in Catalonia and the Basque Country were very successful
.I really wish he wasn't so lucky, those anarcho-communist experiments in Catalonia and the Basque Country were very successful
I think their success can be overstated, but they certainly were mildly successful in terms of being units of industrial democracy that worked harmoniously within themselves. Crises did flare up between rural and urban interests when it came to Spanish communes and workers' councils for a whole host of reasons, however, so their autonomous nature wasn't always a blessing. There were plenty of inefficiencies concerning war production, seeing as the political ties of the factories could undermine the Republican army by only serving militias, the CNT-FAI and the POUM.