Malta is interesting though. One of the reasons that Benny attacked Greece was because he needed to do something. Malta fits that bill too. But it's difficult. If we assume that an attack on Malta happens around the same time as Greece was invaded - late October - then this is also the time that Taranto is due to happen.
Any invasion will have to have naval support. The Italian fleet is powerful, with six battleships before Taranto. However only the two modern ones appear to be any good - the Cavours and Andrea Dorias, with 12.6" guns and 11" armour, look decidedly inferior to an R or QE except in terms of speed - and if they're having to defend a beachhead or convoy, that won't come into it much. The deficiencies in the battleships' torpedo defence systems and nightfighting are also well known, as is the ineffectiveness of Italian bombers at this point.
Really, the Italians will have to take Malta quickly before the RN arrives. If not, their fleet will be driven off at best or routed and driven off at worst.
3 of the 6 Italian battleships were put out of action for at least 6 months at Taranto. Therefore assuming that there was no equivalent to the Battle of Mapatan they would have had the Vittorio Vento and 2 old battleships available to support an invasion of Malta in May 1941. They would also have had the 3 cruisers and 2 destroyers that were sunk at Matapan IOTL, but as that battle doesn't happen ITTL they are still afloat in May 1941. However, they might not have enough fuel to deploy all the serviceable warships. So I agree it would probably be a repeat of the Battle of Calabria a year earlier.
However, that does not allow for the Luftwaffe. Fligerkorps VIII decimated the British Mediterranean Fleet during the invasion of Crete:
-3 cruisers and 6 destroyers were sunk;
-The only aircraft carrier, 2 battleships, 2 cruisers and 2 destroyers were damaged beyond local repair;
-3 cruisers and 6 destroyers were less seriously damaged.
ITTL all the aircraft in Fligerkorps VIII will be sent to reinforce Fligerkorps X in Sicily. It is very likely that the British Mediterranean Fleet will suffer even heavier losses. The Germans will have more aircraft; Malta is further away from Alexandria than Crete so it will be harder to tow the cripples home; and that is if they are not picked off by the Italian Fleet.
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